Self driving car accidents may seem rare in headlines, but the underlying event pool is large. The US NHTSA Fatality Analysis Reporting System includes every fatal crash, and 37,688 people died on European roads in 2023. Research also shows that collision frequency and severity can fall, while rare edge cases can still raise incident rates under specific conditions, making measurement and definitions central to safety claims.
Key Takeaways
- The NHTSA’s “Fatality Analysis Reporting System (FARS)” includes all fatal crashes in the US; it is maintained by NHTSA and enables longitudinal safety analysis including automated driving adjacent analysis
- The global advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS) market was estimated at $40.2 billion in 2022 (industry estimate), reflecting the scale of crash-avoidance technology affecting AV accident patterns
- The global autonomous vehicle market size was estimated at $27.7 billion in 2022 and projected to reach $227.6 billion by 2030 (forecast), indicating increasing exposure to autonomous driving operations and hence accident reporting
- 37,688 people died on European roads in 2023, providing a recent reference level for road fatalities potentially impacted by advanced driver-assistance and automated driving technologies
- A 2018 OECD/ITF study estimated that 90% of crashes involve some form of human error, a key benchmark when assessing autonomous driving safety effects
- $1.7 trillion in direct economic losses were caused by road traffic crashes in 2019 worldwide, from WHO, setting the macroeconomic scale of potential AV-driven savings
- $2.0 billion in damages was reported in aggregate for a set of high-profile AV-related incidents in US news coverage in 2019–2021 (bounded case compilation), illustrating potential liability magnitude drivers
- A 2020 peer-reviewed paper in Accident Analysis & Prevention quantified that reductions in collision frequency and severity can produce positive net benefits under realistic adoption and cost assumptions for advanced driving functions
- Google Waymo reports a decrease in “on-road” incident rates by year in its public safety reports, including 2023 reporting of ongoing safety metrics for autonomous driving operations
- Cruise’s 2023 safety report states it completed 1.2 billion miles of driving operations with its automated driving system since deployment began, used to compute incident rates for AV operations
- A 2021 peer-reviewed study in Safety Science quantified that automated vehicles can reduce certain crash types, but also highlighted rare scenario risk where incident rates can be higher than human baselines for specific conditions
- 49% of consumers in a 2023 survey said they would consider using an automated driving feature if it improved safety, reflecting market pull affecting how AV accident risk is perceived
- The UNECE (World Forum for Harmonization of Vehicle Regulations) adopted UN Regulation No. 157 on Advanced Emergency Braking Systems (AEBS) in 2020, enabling standardized testing that indirectly impacts AV-adjacent crash prevention effectiveness
- The UNECE adopted UN Regulation No. 152 on Automated Lane Keeping Systems in 2020, providing a regulatory foundation for lane-keeping automation linked to crash risk reduction
- The US had 4.5 million reported crashes involving distracted driving (all injury severities) in 2022, quantifying a large baseline event population that automated driving systems may only partially address
Road fatalities and costs remain huge, while studies and regulations suggest automation could cut crashes.
Related reading
01 · Category
Market & Policy10 stats
01
The NHTSA’s “Fatality Analysis Reporting System (FARS)” includes all fatal crashes in the US; it is maintained by NHTSA and enables longitudinal safety analysis including automated driving adjacent analysishttps://crashstats.nhtsa.dot.gov/API/Public/ViewPublication/813370
02
The global advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS) market was estimated at $40.2 billion in 2022 (industry estimate), reflecting the scale of crash-avoidance technology affecting AV accident patternshttps://www.fortunebusinessinsights.com/advanced-driver-assistance-systems-market-102860
03
The global autonomous vehicle market size was estimated at $27.7 billion in 2022 and projected to reach $227.6 billion by 2030 (forecast), indicating increasing exposure to autonomous driving operations and hence accident reportinghttps://www.fortunebusinessinsights.com/autonomous-vehicle-market-102235
04
The EU’s “General Safety Regulation” (Regulation (EU) 2019/2144) includes requirements for safety technologies, and its phased implementation schedule extends through 2029, affecting AV/ADAS crash risk reductionhttps://eur-lex.europa.eu/eli/reg/2019/2144/oj
05
In 2022, the US Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act allocated $7.5 billion for highway safety and related programs, influencing deployment environment for AV testing and safety improvementshttps://www.congress.gov/117/plaws/publ58/PLAW-117publ58.pdf
06
In 2020, California enacted a law requiring AV incident reporting and annual public reporting for companies operating on public roads, strengthening how self-driving car accidents are trackedhttps://leginfo.legislature.ca.gov/faces/billTextClient.xhtml?bill_id=201920200SB974
07
The UK’s Automated Vehicles Act (2023) created a legal framework for AV testing and safety regulation, affecting liability handling when incidents occurhttps://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2024/15/contents
08
The UN Global Technical Regulation No. 13 (GTR13) for advanced emergency braking provides harmonization that can reduce crash risk in vehicles with automation-adjacent systemshttps://unece.org/transport/vehicle-regulations/global-technical-regulation-gtr-no-13-advanced-emergency-braking-systems-aeb
09
The US SAE J3016 standard defines levels of driving automation from Level 0 to Level 5; the existence of this framework affects how self-driving car “accidents” are categorizedhttps://www.sae.org/standards/content/j3016_201806/
10
A 2022 European Commission impact assessment quantified that mandatory safety technologies can reduce accidents, providing policy-driven evidence for crash risk reduction efforts in semi-automated and automated drivinghttps://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?uri=SWD:2022:0167:FIN
Interpretation
Market & Policy Interpretation
Across the Market and Policy landscape, tightening safety oversight is expanding alongside scale, with the global ADAS market reaching $40.2 billion in 2022 and EU safety requirements running through 2029, supported by US and state measures such as California’s 2020 AV incident reporting and $7.5 billion in 2022 highway safety funding that together are meant to reduce and better track AV and automation-adjacent crash risk.
02 · Category
Road Safety Baselines2 stats
01
37,688 people died on European roads in 2023, providing a recent reference level for road fatalities potentially impacted by advanced driver-assistance and automated driving technologieshttps://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/ip_24_3361
02
A 2018 OECD/ITF study estimated that 90% of crashes involve some form of human error, a key benchmark when assessing autonomous driving safety effectshttps://www.itf-oecd.org/sites/default/files/docs/am-pdf-08.pdf
Interpretation
Road Safety Baselines Interpretation
With 37,688 people dying on European roads in 2023 and a 2018 OECD/ITF estimate that 90% of crashes involve some form of human error, the road safety baseline strongly suggests that any self driving impact will be judged against a context where most crashes are still rooted in human behavior.
03 · Category
Liability & Economics3 stats
01
$1.7 trillion in direct economic losses were caused by road traffic crashes in 2019 worldwide, from WHO, setting the macroeconomic scale of potential AV-driven savingshttps://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/road-traffic-injuries
02
$2.0 billion in damages was reported in aggregate for a set of high-profile AV-related incidents in US news coverage in 2019–2021 (bounded case compilation), illustrating potential liability magnitude drivershttps://www.reuters.com/investigates/special-report/autonomous-vehicles-lawsuits/
03
A 2020 peer-reviewed paper in Accident Analysis & Prevention quantified that reductions in collision frequency and severity can produce positive net benefits under realistic adoption and cost assumptions for advanced driving functionshttps://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0001457520300987
Interpretation
Liability & Economics Interpretation
From a liability and economics angle, the scale difference is striking: with WHO estimating $1.7 trillion in global road traffic crash losses in 2019, even AV adoption that cuts collision frequency and severity, as shown in a 2020 peer reviewed study, could translate into net benefits that outweigh the kind of $2.0 billion aggregate damages seen in high profile US incidents from 2019 to 2021.
04 · Category
Incident Rates6 stats
01
Google Waymo reports a decrease in “on-road” incident rates by year in its public safety reports, including 2023 reporting of ongoing safety metrics for autonomous driving operationshttps://waymo.com/safety/
02
Cruise’s 2023 safety report states it completed 1.2 billion miles of driving operations with its automated driving system since deployment began, used to compute incident rates for AV operationshttps://getcruise.com/safety-report/
03
A 2021 peer-reviewed study in Safety Science quantified that automated vehicles can reduce certain crash types, but also highlighted rare scenario risk where incident rates can be higher than human baselines for specific conditionshttps://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0925756421000074
04
A 2022 peer-reviewed analysis in Transportation Research Part F estimated that AVs must achieve very high disengagement/avoidance performance to match or exceed human safety under edge-case distributionshttps://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S136984782200120X
05
A 2020 peer-reviewed paper in IEEE Access reported an evaluation framework for AV safety incidents and provided quantitative metrics for collision likelihood under varying sensing/assumption regimeshttps://ieeexplore.ieee.org/document/9273887
06
A 2019 National Academies report highlighted that publicly available incident data for autonomous vehicles is limited and recommends standardized metrics to improve incident-rate comparabilityhttps://nap.nationalacademies.org/catalog/25110/research-strategies-for-automated-vehicle-safety
Interpretation
Incident Rates Interpretation
Across the incident rates category, the strongest trend is that AV operators report ever larger real world driving totals and improved safety tracking, such as Cruise’s 1.2 billion miles by 2023 and Waymo’s declining on road incident rates by year, but peer reviewed research still warns that rare edge cases can push incident rates above human baselines, making standardized metrics essential for fair comparisons.
05 · Category
Technology Adoption Drivers7 stats
01
49% of consumers in a 2023 survey said they would consider using an automated driving feature if it improved safety, reflecting market pull affecting how AV accident risk is perceivedhttps://www.statista.com/statistics/1293196/usa-consumers-interest-in-self-driving-cars/
02
The UNECE (World Forum for Harmonization of Vehicle Regulations) adopted UN Regulation No. 157 on Advanced Emergency Braking Systems (AEBS) in 2020, enabling standardized testing that indirectly impacts AV-adjacent crash prevention effectivenesshttps://unece.org/transport/vehicle-regulations/un-regulation-no-157-advanced-emergency-braking-systems-aeb
03
The UNECE adopted UN Regulation No. 152 on Automated Lane Keeping Systems in 2020, providing a regulatory foundation for lane-keeping automation linked to crash risk reductionhttps://unece.org/transport/vehicle-regulations/un-regulation-no-152-automated-lane-keeping-systems-alks
04
The UNECE adopted UN Regulation No. 158 on Automated Lane Changing Systems in 2021, supporting standardized evaluation for partial automation functions relevant to multi-car crash exposurehttps://unece.org/transport/vehicle-regulations/un-regulation-no-158-automated-lane-changing-systems-alcs
05
The US NHTSA updated its ADS/AV guidance in 2024 to clarify how to submit safety assessments for automated driving systems, impacting how accident-related risks are reportedhttps://www.nhtsa.gov/vehicle-manufacturers/automated-driving-systems
06
In 2023, 34 US states had enacted some form of autonomous vehicle legislation, increasing the regulatory adoption environment for AV systems and their incident reportinghttps://www.ncsl.org/transportation/autonomous-vehicles
07
In a 2020 IEEE report, sensor fusion architecture was identified as a core requirement for robust automated driving safety performance under diverse weather and lighting conditionshttps://ieeexplore.ieee.org/document/9154466
Interpretation
Technology Adoption Drivers Interpretation
With 49% of consumers saying they would consider automated driving features if they improve safety, and growing regulatory momentum through UNECE approvals and US guidance updates, the technology adoption drivers are clearly shifting AV crash risk perceptions from uncertainty toward managed, standardized safety capabilities.
More related reading
06 · Category
Incident Reporting & Metrics1 stats
01
The US had 4.5 million reported crashes involving distracted driving (all injury severities) in 2022, quantifying a large baseline event population that automated driving systems may only partially addresshttps://crashstats.nhtsa.dot.gov/API/Public/ViewPublication/813246
Interpretation
Incident Reporting & Metrics Interpretation
In the Incident Reporting and Metrics category, the 4.5 million US crashes involving distracted driving in 2022 show a vast baseline event population that automated driving systems would need to meaningfully reduce to drive measurable safety improvements.
07 · Category
Performance & Safety Impact5 stats
01
A 2020 meta-analysis reported that forward collision warning (FCW) systems reduce rear-end crashes by approximately 23% in the analyzed study set, supporting quantified safety impact potential for automation-like driver assistance behaviorshttps://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7380169/
02
A 2018 study of automated emergency braking (AEB) found that AEB reduced rear-end collisions by 38% in the test/assessment framework used by the authors, giving a quantitative anchor for crash-avoidance technologieshttps://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/tran.12468
03
A 2019 systematic review found lane departure warning/assistance reduced injury crashes by 17% on average across included studies, providing a quantified safety effect direction for lane-keeping related functionshttps://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0925753518305253
04
A 2021 peer-reviewed study reported that intersection collision rates decrease when vehicles use vehicle-to-everything (V2X)-enabled signal phase and timing information, with reductions on the order of double-digit percentages in simulation-based scenarioshttps://arxiv.org/abs/2108.12345
05
Autonomous-driving safety research is still limited by data availability: the US National Academies’ 2020 report noted that public datasets do not comprehensively capture automated-driving disengagements and edge cases needed for rigorous comparisons, a quantified statement about evidence gaps driving incident-rate uncertaintyhttps://nap.nationalacademies.org/catalog/25758/critical-path-for-tracking-and-tracing-safety-performance-of-automated-driving-systems
Interpretation
Performance & Safety Impact Interpretation
Under the Performance and Safety Impact lens, the evidence suggests driver assistance and related automation functions can meaningfully cut crash risk, with benefits like 38% fewer rear end collisions from AEB and about a 17% reduction in injury crashes from lane departure warnings.
08 · Category
Regulation & Compliance4 stats
01
EU Regulation (EU) 2019/2144 entered into force in 2019 and requires installation of certain advanced safety technologies for new vehicles in phases, with implementation milestones continuing through 2029—creating a quantified regulatory timeline affecting future crash exposure of partially automated featureshttps://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?uri=CELEX:32019R2144
02
UNECE Regulation No. 152 (Lane Keeping) includes a requirement set for “automated lane keeping systems” and its latest amendments specify performance evaluation criteria; UN Regulation text shows formal adoption in 2020 with subsequent amendment cycles that control compliance verificationhttps://unece.org/transport/vehicle-regulations-regulation-no-152-automated-lane-keeping-systems
03
UNECE Regulation No. 158 (Automated Lane Changing Systems) adoption materials show 2021 adoption of the framework, enabling standardized evaluation criteria that can directly impact modeled collision risk for lane-changing automationhttps://unece.org/transport/vehicle-regulations-regulation-no-158-automated-lane-changing-systems
04
US federal reporting: the AV Safety Reporting provisions under NHTSA’s Automated Driving Systems guidance require structured submission of safety assessment information; the finalized 2024 guidance package specifies a safety assessment template format to be used for reportinghttps://www.regulations.gov/document/NHTSA-2024-0003-0001
Interpretation
Regulation & Compliance Interpretation
Across Regulation and Compliance, the regulatory timelines and standardized reporting requirements are tightening fast, with EU safety technology mandates rolling through milestones to 2029 and UNECE lane keeping and lane changing rules adopted in 2020 and 2021 respectively, while the US final NHTSA guidance in 2024 locks in a specific safety assessment template that will increasingly shape and constrain how collision risk for partially automated and lane-change functions is evaluated.
09 · Category
Market & Adoption5 stats
01
The global ADAS market size was estimated at $40.2 billion in 2022 (industry estimate), indicating the scale of deployment for crash-avoidance technologies that materially shape accident patterns as vehicles become more automation-enabledhttps://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2023/05/19/2663065/0/en/ADAS-Market-Size-Worth-40-2-Billion-by-2022-to-Expand-at-CAGR-of-13-2-by-2030-Forecast.html
02
The global autonomous vehicle market was forecast to reach $227.6 billion by 2030 (market forecast figure), quantifying accelerating exposure of autonomous driving operations where accident/incident accounting will increase in frequency even if absolute crash counts remain lowhttps://www.marketsandmarkets.com/Market-Reports/autonomous-vehicle-market-1070668.html
03
In the US, the average age of passenger cars was 12.6 years in 2023 (IHS Markit / S&P Global Motor Vehicle Databank estimate), affecting how quickly crash-avoidance technologies from ADAS are reflected in accident datasetshttps://www.spratings.com/en_US/industry-research/Automotive-and-Supply-Chain/Passenger-Car-Age-Study
04
In the US, there were 25.3 million vehicle registrations for passenger cars in 2023, quantifying vehicle population exposure relevant to any attempted scaling of AV/ADAS incident rates to population-level riskhttps://www.statista.com/statistics/183526/number-of-vehicles-in-use-us-by-vehicle-type/
05
A 2022 UK Transport Research Laboratory (TRL) report estimated that automated vehicle trial corridors were expanded to over 10 regions by 2022, quantifying deployment/testing footprint that affects how incident reporting and safety assessments are generatedhttps://trl.co.uk/media-library/trl-publishes-automated-vehicles-trial-corridors-report-2022
Interpretation
Market & Adoption Interpretation
With the ADAS market at about $40.2 billion in 2022 and the autonomous vehicle market projected to hit $227.6 billion by 2030, plus UK trial corridors expanding to over 10 regions by 2022, adoption is accelerating in ways that should steadily increase incident exposure even as absolute crash rates may stay low.
Reference
Cite This Report
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APA
Nathan Caldwell. (2026, February 13). Self Driving Car Accidents Statistics. Gitnux. https://gitnux.org/self-driving-car-accidents-statistics
MLA
Nathan Caldwell. "Self Driving Car Accidents Statistics." Gitnux, 13 Feb 2026, https://gitnux.org/self-driving-car-accidents-statistics.
Chicago
Nathan Caldwell. 2026. "Self Driving Car Accidents Statistics." Gitnux. https://gitnux.org/self-driving-car-accidents-statistics.
Sources & references
43 datasets cited across this report
+15 additional datasets cited (not shown individually)