The global grain industry is on a roller coaster of record harvests and crushing losses, where a single percentage point in wheat, corn, rice, or soybean production can sway economies and empty shelves.
Key Takeaways
- Global wheat production in the 2022/23 marketing year totaled 784.0 million metric tons, down 0.7 percent from the previous year due to lower yields in key regions like the EU and Russia.
- U.S. corn production for 2023 is projected at 15.2 billion bushels, reflecting a record yield of 177.3 bushels per acre.
- China's rice production in 2022 reached 212.4 million metric tons, up 0.7% year-over-year supported by favorable weather.
- World corn consumption in 2023/24 projected at 1,199 million metric tons, up 1.5% driven by feed demand.
- U.S. wheat disappearance for 2023/24 forecast at 965 million bushels for food, seed, and industrial use.
- China corn imports for feed use in 2023 estimated at 40 million metric tons.
- U.S. corn exports in 2023/24 marketing year projected at 2,275 million bushels.
- Global wheat trade volume 2023/24 forecast at 207.5 million metric tons, up 3.2%.
- U.S. soybean exports 2023/24 at 1,825 million bushels, mainly to China.
- CBOT wheat futures price averaged $6.85 per bushel in 2023.
- U.S. corn farm price received 2023/24 projected at $4.65 per bushel.
- Global rice price index FAO rose 20% in 2023 to 130 points.
- Global wheat production emitted 1.2 Gt CO2eq in 2020, 2.6% of total GHG.
- U.S. corn farming water use 2022 averaged 11 inches per acre.
- Rice paddy fields contribute 8-12% of global methane emissions.
Global grain production and trade fluctuate with mixed regional yields and weather challenges.
Consumption
1World corn consumption in 2023/24 projected at 1,199 million metric tons, up 1.5% driven by feed demand.
Verified2U.S. wheat disappearance for 2023/24 forecast at 965 million bushels for food, seed, and industrial use.
Verified3China corn imports for feed use in 2023 estimated at 40 million metric tons.
Verified4Global rice consumption 2023/24 at 534.5 million metric tons (milled), up 1.2%.
Directional5EU soybean meal consumption for animal feed in 2022 reached 28 million metric tons.
Single source6U.S. corn used for ethanol production 2023/24 projected at 5.45 billion bushels.
Verified7India wheat consumption for food in 2022/23 at 100 million metric tons.
Verified8Brazil corn consumption 2023/24 forecast at 105 million metric tons, mostly for feed.
Verified9Global barley feed use 2023/24 at 137 million metric tons.
Directional10Japan wheat imports for milling consumption 2023 at 5.6 million metric tons.
Single source11U.S. rice domestic use 2023/24 at 118 million cwt.
Verified12Mexico corn consumption for feed 2023 at 28 million metric tons.
Verified13World soybean crush for oil and meal 2023/24 projected at 407 million metric tons.
Verified14Russia wheat food consumption stable at 40 million metric tons annually.
Directional15Egypt rice consumption per capita 2022 at 47 kg, highest globally.
Single source16U.S. exports of corn feed and residual use 2023/24 at 56.5 million metric tons equivalent.
Verified17Global sorghum food use 2023 at 11 million metric tons, mainly in Africa.
Verified18Canada barley malting use 2023 at 2.5 million metric tons.
Verified19Turkey wheat consumption for bread 2022 at 19 million metric tons.
Directional20Southeast Asia rice consumption growth 1.5% annually to 2028.
Single source21U.S. wheat food use 2023/24 at 910 million bushels.
Verified22China rice consumption 2023 at 155 million metric tons.
Verified23Argentina soybean consumption for crush 2023 at 48 million metric tons.
Verified24Global corn food use 2023/24 at 135 million metric tons.
Directional25Indonesia wheat consumption 2023 at 11.5 million metric tons, all imported.
Single source26U.S. soybean oil domestic use 2023/24 projected at 12.2 billion pounds.
Verified27Nigeria sorghum consumption 2022 at 7 million metric tons for food and beer.
Verified28Global wheat consumption 2023/24 at 789 million metric tons.
VerifiedConsumption Interpretation
From the United States using billions of bushels of corn to power its cars, to China and India devouring hundreds of millions of tons of grain to feed its billions, and right down to Egypt leading the world in heaping rice plates per person, these numbers ultimately tell a single, voracious story: humanity's insatiable appetite, measured in metric tons, is how we literally fuel, feed, and ferment our civilization.
Prices
1CBOT wheat futures price averaged $6.85 per bushel in 2023.
Verified2U.S. corn farm price received 2023/24 projected at $4.65 per bushel.
Verified3Global rice price index FAO rose 20% in 2023 to 130 points.
Verified4Soybean futures on CBOT hit $14.29 per bushel high in May 2023.
Directional5Wheat CFR Black Sea price 2023 average $260 per metric ton.
Single source6U.S. No.2 yellow corn FOB Gulf 2023 averaged $237 per ton.
Verified7Barley malt price in EU 2023 at €350 per ton.
Verified8Indian parboiled rice FOB price 2023 $480 per metric ton.
Verified9Canola crush margin in Canada 2023 averaged CAD 120 per ton.
Directional10Sorghum price U.S. Gulf 2023 $250 per metric ton.
Single source11Oats futures price Minneapolis 2023 $3.80 per bushel.
Verified12Rye price in Germany 2023 €280 per ton.
Verified13Millet wholesale price India 2023 Rs 25/kg.
Verified14U.S. wheat HRW protein 12% FOB $285 per ton 2023 avg.
Directional15Brazilian soybean FOB Santos 2023 $500 per metric ton average.
Single source16Thai 5% broken rice export price 2023 $600/ton peak.
Verified17EU feed wheat price 2023 €250 per ton.
Verified18U.S. soybean oil price 2023/24 $0.48 per pound.
Verified19Global corn price index World Bank 2023 averaged 180 points.
Directional20Argentine soybean meal FOB Up River 2023 $420 per ton.
Single source21Distillers dried grains price U.S. Midwest 2023 $220 per ton.
Verified22Australian wheat ASW FOB 2023 $320 per metric ton.
Verified23Chinese corn CIF price 2023 2,800 yuan per ton.
Verified24U.S. rice long grain milled 2023 $18.50/cwt.
Directional25Global wheat price volatility 2023 standard deviation 25%.
Single source26CBOT soybean meal futures 2023 average $430 per short ton.
Verified27French soft wheat Euronext 2023 €220/ton low.
Verified28U.S. corn grower price 2023 $5.25/bushel all wheat.
Verified29FAO Cereal Price Index 2023 averaged 125.4 points.
DirectionalPrices Interpretation
From Thai rice hitting $600 to Argentine meal at $420, the grain market's 2023 story was one of volatile but universally expensive breadbasket economics.
Production
1Global wheat production in the 2022/23 marketing year totaled 784.0 million metric tons, down 0.7 percent from the previous year due to lower yields in key regions like the EU and Russia.
Verified2U.S. corn production for 2023 is projected at 15.2 billion bushels, reflecting a record yield of 177.3 bushels per acre.
Verified3China's rice production in 2022 reached 212.4 million metric tons, up 0.7% year-over-year supported by favorable weather.
Verified4Brazil soybean output for 2022/23 was estimated at 155 million metric tons, boosted by expanded planted area to 44.5 million hectares.
Directional5India wheat harvest in 2022/23 marketing year hit 112.0 million tons, the second highest on record despite early heat waves.
Single source6EU corn production in 2023 forecasted at 66.6 million metric tons, down 4% from prior year due to dry conditions in France.
Verified7Australia's barley production for 2022/23 reached 4.2 million tons, recovering from drought with yields averaging 2.1 tons per hectare.
Verified8Argentina wheat production in 2022/23 estimated at 14.5 million metric tons, down sharply from 20.5 million due to La Niña impacts.
Verified9U.S. soybean production 2023 projected at 4.15 billion bushels with average yield of 50.7 bushels per acre.
Directional10Russia corn output 2022/23 at 12.0 million metric tons, up 20% from previous year on increased acreage.
Single source11Global coarse grain production 2023/24 forecast at 1,452 million metric tons, up 1% led by corn recovery.
Verified12Ukraine wheat production 2023/24 estimated at 22.0 million metric tons, down 7% due to conflict disruptions.
Verified13Canada canola production 2023 at 14.8 million metric tons from 8.9 million hectares planted.
Verified14Turkey barley production 2022/23 at 7.0 million metric tons, stable despite regional dryness.
Directional15Mexico corn production 2023/24 projected at 27.2 million metric tons, up slightly on irrigation improvements.
Single source16France wheat production 2023 at 36.5 million metric tons, down 20% from quality issues and weather.
Verified17Global rice production 2023/24 forecast at 529.7 million metric tons (milled basis), up 1.4%.
Verified18U.S. sorghum production 2023 at 447 million bushels, yield 67.2 bushels per acre.
Verified19Kazakhstan wheat output 2022/23 at 17.4 million metric tons, down 15% on lower yields.
Directional20Thailand rice production 2022 at 34.5 million metric tons (paddy equivalent).
Single source21South Africa corn production 2023/24 white corn at 7.3 million tons, total maize 15.8 million tons.
Verified22Egypt wheat production 2023 at 9.45 million metric tons from 3.55 million hectares.
Verified23Global oat production 2022 at 25.8 million metric tons, led by Russia and Canada.
Verified24U.S. wheat production 2023 at 1,989 million bushels, all wheat yield 49.4 bushels per acre.
Directional25Vietnam rice production 2022/23 at 43.5 million metric tons (milled).
Single source26Global rye production 2022 at 12.9 million metric tons, primarily in Europe.
Verified27Paraguay soybean production 2022/23 record 10.5 million metric tons.
Verified28Poland corn production 2023 estimated at 7.5 million metric tons.
Verified29Global millet production 2022 at 29.6 million metric tons, key in Africa and Asia.
Directional30U.S. rice production 2023 at 159.3 million cwt, long grain 118.9 million cwt.
Single sourceProduction Interpretation
The global grain market is a high-stakes seesaw where booming harvests in one corner battle crippling droughts and conflict in another, reminding us that while human innovation pushes yields higher, our fundamental dependence on favorable weather remains deliciously, and sometimes devastatingly, unchanged.
Sustainability
1Global wheat production emitted 1.2 Gt CO2eq in 2020, 2.6% of total GHG.
Verified2U.S. corn farming water use 2022 averaged 11 inches per acre.
Verified3Rice paddy fields contribute 8-12% of global methane emissions.
Verified4Soybean deforestation in Brazil 2022 linked to 1.7 million ha loss.
Directional5Global grain N fertilizer use efficiency only 47% in 2019.
Single source6U.S. wheat no-till adoption 2022 at 35% of acreage.
Verified7EU corn crop yield gap closed to 20% of potential by 2020.
Verified8Global barley irrigation accounts for 20% of production water footprint.
Verified9Pesticide use in U.S. corn 2022 at 0.25 kg active ingredient per planted acre.
Directional10Sustainable rice intensification in Asia boosts yields 20-50% with less water.
Single source11Global wheat biodiversity loss 75% since 1900.
Verified12U.S. soybean cover crop use increased to 5% of acres in 2022.
Verified13Corn stover removal for bioenergy limited to 30-50% to maintain soil health.
Verified14Global grain soil erosion rate 12 tons per hectare per year average.
Directional15Precision agriculture in U.S. grains reduces N use by 15%.
Single source16Rice ratooning systems in China save 20% water and increase yield 15%.
Verified17Organic grain production U.S. 2022 at 1.1 million acres, 0.5% total.
Verified18Global P fertilizer surplus in grains leads to 10 Mt P loss yearly.
Verified19Conservation tillage in Brazilian soybeans covers 80% of area 2023.
Directional20U.S. corn GHG emissions per bushel declined 30% since 2000.
Single source21Alternate wetting drying rice cuts methane 48% without yield loss.
Verified22Wheat genetic improvement increased resource use efficiency 1.2% per year since 1980.
Verified23Global grain supply chain carbon footprint 1.5 Gt CO2eq annually.
Verified24Regenerative ag in grains sequesters 0.4 tC/ha/year extra.
Directional25U.S. sorghum drought tolerance reduces irrigation 25%.
Single source26EU grain CAP subsidies support 40% sustainable practices adoption.
Verified27Mycotoxin contamination in grains affects 25% of global production.
Verified28Precision N management in rice saves 20-30 kg N/ha.
Verified29Global grain waste post-harvest 14% of production.
Directional30U.S. wheat water productivity 2022 at 1.1 kg/m3.
Single sourceSustainability Interpretation
Our grain systems feed the world with an awkward mix of remarkable ingenuity and staggering inefficiency, where every bite of progress seems to come with a side of environmental regret.
Trade
1U.S. corn exports in 2023/24 marketing year projected at 2,275 million bushels.
Verified2Global wheat trade volume 2023/24 forecast at 207.5 million metric tons, up 3.2%.
Verified3U.S. soybean exports 2023/24 at 1,825 million bushels, mainly to China.
Verified4Russia wheat exports 2023/24 projected at 47 million metric tons.
Directional5Brazil corn exports 2023/24 record 54 million metric tons.
Single source6EU wheat exports 2023/24 at 27 million metric tons.
Verified7Ukraine corn shipments 2023 despite war at 25 million metric tons via Black Sea corridor.
Verified8Canada canola exports 2023 at 11.2 million metric tons, 80% to Asia.
Verified9Argentina soybean exports 2023 at 6.5 million metric tons (beans).
Directional10U.S. wheat exports 2023/24 forecast at 750 million bushels.
Single source11China corn imports 2023/24 projected at 9.5 million metric tons.
Verified12Australia barley exports 2023/24 at 5.5 million metric tons to Saudi Arabia.
Verified13India rice exports 2023 basmati at 4.8 million metric tons.
Verified14Mexico wheat imports from U.S. 2023 at 3.0 million metric tons.
Directional15Turkey corn imports 2023 at 10.5 million metric tons.
Single source16Global rice trade 2023/24 at 53.8 million metric tons.
Verified17U.S. sorghum exports 2023/24 at 175 million bushels to China.
Verified18Kazakhstan wheat exports 2023/24 at 8.5 million metric tons.
Verified19Thailand rice exports 2023 at 8.2 million metric tons.
Directional20Egypt wheat imports 2023/24 at 12.5 million metric tons.
Single source21U.S. distillers grains exports 2023 at 11 million metric tons.
Verified22Paraguay soybean exports 2023 record 6.2 million metric tons.
Verified23Global soybean trade 2023/24 forecast at 170 million metric tons.
Verified24Japan soybean imports 2023 at 8.5 million metric tons.
Directional25France wheat exports to Africa 2023 at 10 million metric tons.
Single source26Vietnam rice exports 2023 at 8.1 million metric tons.
Verified27U.S. corn export value 2023 at $18.5 billion.
Verified28Global coarse grains trade 2023/24 at 173 million metric tons.
Verified29South Africa white corn exports 2023 minimal at 0.5 million tons.
Directional30Indonesia palm oil but grain imports wheat 11 million tons 2023.
Single source31U.S. wheat export share of world trade 2023/24 at 13%.
VerifiedTrade Interpretation
While China voraciously imports and Russia aggressively exports, a complex global food security puzzle—held together by remarkable resilience from Ukraine and record-setting harvests from Brazil—is being quietly solved by countless ships crossing countless seas, one bushel and one metric ton at a time.
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