Picture this: by the time you finish reading this sentence, the United States national debt has grown by hundreds of thousands of dollars, continuing its relentless climb from $31.4 trillion at the start of 2023 to a staggering $35.5 trillion by September 2024.
Key Takeaways
- As of September 30, 2024, the total gross federal debt stood at $35.5 trillion
- On January 1, 2023, U.S. national debt was $31.4 trillion
- The U.S. debt surpassed $34 trillion on January 4, 2024
- Debt-to-GDP was 133% as of Q2 2024
- In 2023, federal debt held by public was 98% of GDP
- Debt-to-GDP hit 106% in 2020 due to pandemic
- Japan holds 22.9% of US public debt as of April 2024
- China holds 2.6% or $772.7B of US debt in Jan 2024
- UK holds 5.9% of foreign-held US debt ($740B) in 2023
- Net interest payments on debt were $659 billion in FY 2023
- Interest costs projected to reach $1.2T by 2033
- FY 2024 interest payments hit $892B (record)
- Federal debt projected to rise to 166% of GDP by 2054
- Annual deficits average $2T through 2034
- Debt held by public to 116% GDP by 2034
The United States national debt has grown rapidly and now poses a significant fiscal challenge.
Current and Historical Total Debt Levels
1As of September 30, 2024, the total gross federal debt stood at $35.5 trillion
Verified2On January 1, 2023, U.S. national debt was $31.4 trillion
Verified3The U.S. debt surpassed $34 trillion on January 4, 2024
Verified4Total public debt outstanding reached $33.17 trillion as of October 31, 2023
Directional5In fiscal year 2022, federal debt held by the public increased by $7.1 trillion
Single source6U.S. debt hit $30 trillion on February 19, 2022
Verified7At the end of WWII in 1946, debt was $269 billion
Verified8Debt reached $1 trillion in 1981
Verified9By end of FY 2008, debt was $10 trillion
Directional10Debt doubled from $14.2 trillion in 2011 to $28.4 trillion in 2021
Single source11As of August 2024, intragovernmental holdings were $7.0 trillion
Verified12Publicly held debt was $27.3 trillion in June 2023
Verified13Debt increased by $2.3 trillion in FY 2021 alone
Verified14From 2001 to 2021, debt rose from $5.8T to $28.4T
Directional15Peak debt during COVID was $28.1T in March 2021
Single source16As of Sep 30, 2024, total debt $35.6T
Verified17Debt crossed $32T on June 2, 2023
Verified18End FY2020 debt $27.7T post-CARES Act
Verified19Debt was $5.7T in 2000
Directional20FY2019 debt increase $584B
Single source21Public debt $26.3T end 2022
VerifiedCurrent and Historical Total Debt Levels Interpretation
The United States has mastered the art of turning fiscal milestones into a treadmill, sprinting from its first trillion-dollar debt in 1981 to a staggering $35.6 trillion today with the alarming grace of someone who just keeps adding zeroes to a tab their grandchildren will inherit.
Debt Holders and Composition
1Japan holds 22.9% of US public debt as of April 2024
Verified2China holds 2.6% or $772.7B of US debt in Jan 2024
Verified3UK holds 5.9% of foreign-held US debt ($740B) in 2023
Verified4Foreign investors hold $8.0 trillion of US public debt as of Dec 2023
Directional5Federal Reserve holds 13% of marketable Treasury securities
Single source6Intragovernmental debt: Social Security Trust Fund holds $2.8T
Verified7Mutual funds hold $5.2T in Treasuries as of 2023
Verified8State/local govts hold $1.2T in US debt
Verified9Pension funds hold 8% of US Treasuries
Directional10Individuals hold $1.6T directly in savings bonds/Treasuries
Single source11Belgium holds $353B (surprising large holder)
Verified12Ireland holds $310B in US Treasuries
Verified13Cayman Islands holds $350B (offshore)
Verified14Domestic holders: 70% of total public debt
Directional15Banks hold 15% of US marketable debt
Single source16Foreign share of public debt peaked at 34% in 2015
Verified17Military retirement funds hold $1.5T intragovernmental
Verified18Foreign holdings $8.1T as Feb 2024
Verified19Fed's Treasury holdings $4.9T as of 2024
Directional20Social Security $2.83T holdings Sep 2023
Single source21Luxembourg holds $377B (custodial)
Verified22Canada holds $378B US debt
Verified23Taiwan $250B holder
Verified24Insurance companies hold $0.6T Treasuries
Directional25Foreign central banks 50% of foreign-held debt
Single source26US households hold 5% of debt
Verified27Brazil holds $230B
Verified28Switzerland $290B
Verified29Domestic non-Fed: 50% public debt
DirectionalDebt Holders and Composition Interpretation
Our national debt is a house of mirrors where the biggest reflection staring back at us, holding over 20% of the foreign-held total, is a surprisingly familiar face: ourselves, via our own Social Security Trust Fund and the Federal Reserve.
Debt-to-GDP Ratios
1Debt-to-GDP was 133% as of Q2 2024
Verified2In 2023, federal debt held by public was 98% of GDP
Verified3Debt-to-GDP hit 106% in 2020 due to pandemic
Verified4Historical high debt-to-GDP was 106% in 1946
Directional5Current debt-to-GDP projected at 122% by 2034
Single source6In Q4 2023, ratio was 122.3%
Verified7Debt-to-GDP was 79% in 2019 pre-pandemic
Verified8Under Reagan, rose from 32% to 53% (1981-1989)
Verified9Obama era: 62% to 104% (2009-2017)
Directional10Trump administration: 104% to 129% peak in 2020
Single source11Biden FY2023: debt-to-GDP averaged 97%
Verified12Federal debt per GDP projected 180% by 2053
Verified13In 1980, debt-to-GDP was 32.6%
Verified14Q1 2024 debt-to-GDP at 123%
Directional15Japan has higher 252% debt-to-GDP vs US 122% in 2023
Single source16Debt per person $106,000 in 2023
Verified17Debt-to-GDP 100% first hit in 2013
Verified18Q3 2023 ratio 120.8%
Verified19Post-WWII decline to 31% by 1981
Directional20Bush era: 55% to 84% (2001-2009)
Single source21Debt-to-GDP forecast 144% by 2042
Verified221970 ratio 35%
Verified23Luxembourg has low 25% vs US 122%
Verified24Debt-to-GDP rose 20 pts in 2020 alone
Directional25Italy 140% debt-to-GDP in 2023
Single sourceDebt-to-GDP Ratios Interpretation
We’re essentially refinancing the entire country, every few years, to keep afloat, like a desperate homeowner who’s stopped asking for the interest rate and just keeps adding new rooms without a roof.
Interest Payments and Costs
1Net interest payments on debt were $659 billion in FY 2023
Verified2Interest costs projected to reach $1.2T by 2033
Verified3FY 2024 interest payments hit $892B (record)
Verified4Interest as % of budget: 14% in 2024
Directional5Average interest rate on marketable debt: 3.3% in 2024
Single source610-year Treasury yield averaged 4.2% in 2023
Verified7Interest expense grew 30% from $476B in FY2022 to $619B est FY2023
Verified8By 2025, interest costs exceed defense spending ($1T vs $0.9T)
Verified9Short-term debt rollover risk: $7T maturing in 2024 at higher rates
Directional10Interest payments = 2.5% of GDP in 2023
Single source11Historical low rates: 1.6% avg in 2021
Verified12Medicare HI Trust Fund interest: $5B annually
Verified13Total interest outlays $870B projected FY2024
Verified14Rates on 30-year bonds hit 5% in Oct 2023
Directional15Debt service costs up 148% since 2020
Single source16CBO projects interest at 3.7% of GDP by 2034
Verified17FY2023 net interest $659B, 10% budget share
Verified18Projected $1.7T interest by 2034
Verified19Avg rate 2.5% in FY2023
Directional202-year yield 5.25% Oct 2023 peak
Single source21Interest doubled since 2021 low
Verified22GAO: interest biggest spending driver
Verified233-month T-bill avg 5.3% 2024
Verified24Interest-to-revenue ratio 18% in 2024
Directional25Refinancing $28T at higher rates adds $400B/year
Single source26Historical avg rate 4.4% since 1970s
Verified27Fed remittances down $114B in 2023 due to rates
Verified28Interest exceeds Medicaid spending 2025
VerifiedInterest Payments and Costs Interpretation
We've borrowed so much on such a short leash that our national hobby is now just paying the vig, and the vig is about to eat the entire defense budget for a light snack.
Projections and Future Outlook
1Federal debt projected to rise to 166% of GDP by 2054
Verified2Annual deficits average $2T through 2034
Verified3Debt held by public to 116% GDP by 2034
Verified4Interest costs to hit 6.3% of GDP by 2053
Directional5Under current law, debt 195% GDP by 2053
Single source6IMF forecasts US debt-to-GDP 140% by 2029
Verified7GAO: unsustainable path, debt 200% GDP in 2047
Verified8If policies unchanged, $50T debt by 2033
Verified9Social Security shortfall adds $20T to debt by 2034
Directional10Medicare unfunded: $48T over 75 years
Single source11CBO baseline: $20T cumulative deficits 2024-2033
Verified12Aging population drives 50% debt increase by 2050
Verified13No action: debt service crowds out 25% spending by 2030s
Verified14Optimistic scenario: debt stabilizes at 130% GDP
Directional15Debt 172% GDP by 2054 baseline
Single source16Cumulative deficits $22T 2025-2034
Verified17Alternative scenario: 219% GDP by 2053
Verified18Entitlements drive 80% deficit growth
Verified19Penn Wharton: sustainable debt 175-200% GDP
Directional20World Bank projects US debt 150% by 2030
Single source21CRFB: $112T debt by 2053 no changes
Verified22Aging boomers add $10T to deficits
Verified23CBO: revenues 18.5% GDP, spending 24% by 2053
Verified24Health costs 10% GDP by 2053 vs 5% now
DirectionalProjections and Future Outlook Interpretation
The numbers are screaming that our national debt is morphing from a troubling burden into a generational tyrant, set to commandeer a quarter of our spending just on interest while the combined weight of an aging population and soaring health costs drags the promise of the future deeper into a fiscal hole we are still actively digging.
Sources & References
- Reference 1FISCALDATAfiscaldata.treasury.govVisit source
- Reference 2TREASURYDIRECTtreasurydirect.govVisit source
- Reference 3CNBCcnbc.comVisit source
- Reference 4CBOcbo.govVisit source
- Reference 5REUTERSreuters.comVisit source
- Reference 6PGPFpgpf.orgVisit source
- Reference 7CRFBcrfb.orgVisit source
- Reference 8FEDERALRESERVEfederalreserve.govVisit source
- Reference 9GAOgao.govVisit source
- Reference 10FREDfred.stlouisfed.orgVisit source
- Reference 11IMFimf.orgVisit source
- Reference 12BEAbea.govVisit source
- Reference 13TICDATAticdata.treasury.govVisit source
- Reference 14HOMEhome.treasury.govVisit source
- Reference 15SSAssa.govVisit source
- Reference 16SIFMAsifma.orgVisit source
- Reference 17NEWYORKFEDnewyorkfed.orgVisit source
- Reference 18BROOKINGSbrookings.eduVisit source
- Reference 19CMScms.govVisit source
- Reference 20WHITEHOUSEwhitehouse.govVisit source
- Reference 21FOXBUSINESSfoxbusiness.comVisit source
- Reference 22DATAdata.worldbank.orgVisit source
- Reference 23ECec.europa.euVisit source
- Reference 24NAICnaic.orgVisit source
- Reference 25BOSTONFEDbostonfed.orgVisit source