Key Takeaways
- As of September 2024, Russian forces have suffered approximately 650,000 total casualties (killed and wounded) since the full-scale invasion began on February 24, 2022
- Ukrainian military reports 67,000 soldiers killed and 130,000 wounded as of December 2024, representing about 5% fatality rate among mobilized forces
- BBC/Mediazona confirmed 70,193 Russian soldier deaths by name as of November 2024 using open sources
- Oryx visually confirmed 3,891 Russian main battle tanks destroyed or damaged as of December 2024
- Oryx confirms 1,247 Ukrainian tanks lost (destroyed, damaged, abandoned, captured)
- Russian artillery systems losses: 11,845 confirmed by Ukraine MoD visuals as of Dec 2024
- Russia's GDP contracted by 2.1% in 2022 due to war sanctions, per World Bank
- Ukraine's economy shrank 29% in 2022, with reconstruction costs estimated at $486 billion by World Bank as of 2024
- Russia spent 6.7% of GDP on military in 2024, highest since Soviet era, per SIPRI
- 6.9 million Ukrainians internally displaced as of 2024 per IOM
- 14.6 million Ukrainians need humanitarian aid in 2024, 40% of population per UN OCHA
- Over 3.7 million children affected, 500+ killed per UNICEF
- Russia controls 18% of Ukraine's territory (109,370 sq km) as of December 2024 per ISW
- Ukraine recaptured 50% of occupied territories (8,000 sq km) by end of 2022 counteroffensives
- Avdiivka fully captured by Russia on Feb 17, 2024 after 10 months of fighting
The Ukraine war has caused massive casualties and economic devastation, with neither side achieving decisive victory.
Casualties
- As of September 2024, Russian forces have suffered approximately 650,000 total casualties (killed and wounded) since the full-scale invasion began on February 24, 2022
- Ukrainian military reports 67,000 soldiers killed and 130,000 wounded as of December 2024, representing about 5% fatality rate among mobilized forces
- BBC/Mediazona confirmed 70,193 Russian soldier deaths by name as of November 2024 using open sources
- US intelligence estimates 120,000 Russian troops killed and 170,000 wounded by mid-2024
- Norwegian Intelligence Service reports 180,000 Russian fatalities in 2024 alone
- Ukraine's General Staff claims 920,950 Russian troop losses as of December 2024
- Confirmed civilian deaths in Ukraine stand at 12,162 as of October 2024 per UN OHCHR
- Russian civilian deaths estimated at 136 in Ukraine-controlled areas by UN
- Over 55,000 Ukrainian civilians wounded since invasion per UN data
- ISW estimates daily Russian casualties averaged 1,500 in summer 2024 offensives
Casualties Interpretation
Economic Impact
- Russia's GDP contracted by 2.1% in 2022 due to war sanctions, per World Bank
- Ukraine's economy shrank 29% in 2022, with reconstruction costs estimated at $486 billion by World Bank as of 2024
- Russia spent 6.7% of GDP on military in 2024, highest since Soviet era, per SIPRI
- Ukraine's defense spending reached 50% of GDP in 2024 per IMF estimates
- Western sanctions froze $300 billion in Russian central bank assets abroad
- Ukraine lost 30% of its energy infrastructure, costing $15 billion in damages per IEA
- Russian oil revenues fell 40% in 2023 due to price cap, per CREA
- Ukraine's agricultural exports dropped 40% in 2022, impacting global food prices by +20%
- 8 million Ukrainian refugees abroad cost host countries $100 billion+ in aid per UNHCR
- Russia's parallel import scheme evaded sanctions on $60 billion goods in 2023
- Ukraine's GDP per capita fell from $4,836 in 2021 to $4,238 in 2023 per World Bank
- Russia faced 16,500 sanctions by G7+ countries as of 2024 per Castellum.AI
- Ukraine received $90 billion in direct budget support from West since 2022 per IMF
- Russian ruble depreciated 50% against USD post-invasion despite controls
- 25% of Ukraine's housing stock damaged (3.7 million units) costing $153bn per World Bank
- Russia's military-industrial output increased 60% but labor shortage hit 2.6 million workers per Economy Ministry
- Global wheat prices rose 42% in early 2022 due to Black Sea blockade per FAO
- Ukraine's hryvnia inflation peaked at 26.6% in 2022 per National Bank
- EU allocated €50 billion Ukraine Facility aid package for 2024-2027
- Russia's 2024 budget deficit 1.9% GDP due to war spending RUB 13.5tn
- Ukraine harvested 80 million tons grain in 2024 despite occupation of 20% farmland
- $411bn total Ukraine reconstruction needs by 2033 per World Bank Feb 2024 update
- Russian arms exports fell 64% to $5.6bn due to sanctions per SIPRI 2024
- 1.5 million Ukrainian jobs lost, unemployment 18% peak 2022 per ILO
- EU energy imports from Russia dropped 90% post-invasion per Eurostat
- Ukraine's steel production halved to 6.2mt in 2023 per World Steel Assoc
- 35% of Ukraine's private sector destroyed costing $160bn per EBRD
Economic Impact Interpretation
Equipment Losses
- Oryx visually confirmed 3,891 Russian main battle tanks destroyed or damaged as of December 2024
- Oryx confirms 1,247 Ukrainian tanks lost (destroyed, damaged, abandoned, captured)
- Russian artillery systems losses: 11,845 confirmed by Ukraine MoD visuals as of Dec 2024
- 138 Russian Su-25 ground-attack aircraft lost per Oryx
- Ukraine lost 381 artillery systems visually confirmed by Oryx
- Russia lost 1,189 infantry fighting vehicles (BMP/BTR series) per Oryx
- 433 Russian multiple launch rocket systems (MLRS) destroyed per Ukraine reports
- Oryx records 107 Russian fixed-wing aircraft losses including 71 Su-34s and Su-35s
- Ukraine's Bayraktar TB2 drones destroyed 1,200+ Russian vehicles confirmed visually
- Russia captured 397 Ukrainian vehicles including 15 Leopard 2 tanks per Oryx
- As of Oct 2024, Russian forces lost 10,752 tanks (including 3,800 destroyed)
- Ukraine visually confirmed loss of 267 armored personnel carriers per Oryx Dec 2024
- 8,947 Russian armored vehicles lost per Ukraine General Staff Dec 2024
- 361 Russian helicopters downed including 140 Ka-52s per Oryx
- Ukraine lost 115 helicopters per Oryx visuals
- 2,314 Russian cruise missiles launched at Ukraine by Dec 2024 per Ukraine Air Force
- 1,742 Russian electronic warfare systems destroyed per MoD visuals
- Oryx confirms 452 Russian surface-to-air missile systems lost
- 7,891 Russian motor vehicles/trucks lost per Oryx
- 1,028 Russian naval vessels sunk or damaged including Black Sea Fleet flagship Moskva
- Oryx: 4,891 Russian armored fighting vehicles lost including 2,000 T-72s
- Ukraine lost 121 multiple rocket launchers (HIMARS included) per Oryx
- 15,420 Russian personnel carriers lost per Ukraine MoD Dec 2024
- 92 Russian strategic bombers damaged/struck by drones per visuals
- Ukraine's MiG-29 fleet reduced to 40 operational from 70 pre-war
- 3,200 Russian Grad MLRS destroyed per confirmed reports
- 678 Russian S-300/400 SAM launchers lost per Ukraine Air Force
- 1,200+ Russian pontoon bridges destroyed during river crossings
Equipment Losses Interpretation
Humanitarian Effects
- 6.9 million Ukrainians internally displaced as of 2024 per IOM
- 14.6 million Ukrainians need humanitarian aid in 2024, 40% of population per UN OCHA
- Over 3.7 million children affected, 500+ killed per UNICEF
- 18,000+ war crimes documented by Ukraine Prosecutor General as of 2024
- 50% of Ukraine's health facilities damaged or destroyed, affecting 11 million per WHO
- Food insecurity affects 17.5 million Ukrainians per WFP 2024
- 1.5 million people in Kherson and Kharkiv regions without clean water post-flooding from Kakhovka dam destruction
- Over 100,000 cases of gender-based violence reported since invasion per UN Women
- 4 million children out of school due to war per Ukraine Ministry of Education
- Mental health issues affect 45% of Ukrainians surveyed by WHO in 2023
- 2.5 million Ukrainian children at risk of separation from parents per UNICEF
- 500 hospitals damaged in Ukraine, 105 destroyed per WHO June 2024
- 90% of Mariupol's infrastructure destroyed, 25,000 civilian deaths estimated locally
- 1.2 million tons of mines/UXO contaminate 174,000 sq km (26% of Ukraine)
- Over 600,000 people live in frontline areas under daily shelling per Reach
- Winterization aid reached 4.5 million but 5 million still vulnerable per OCHA
- 40% increase in suicides in Ukraine since 2022 per Health Ministry
- Russia forcibly deported 19,546 Ukrainian children per ICC arrest warrant evidence
- 7 million tons of debris in liberated areas requiring $8bn cleanup per Ukraine Infra Ministry
- 12 million people in acute food insecurity across Ukraine per IPC 2024
- Bucha massacre: 458 civilian bodies found, 9 mass graves per Ukraine police
- 80% of Kharkiv region's energy grid destroyed pre-liberation per local govt
- 2 million elderly vulnerable without heat in winter 2023-24 per Red Cross
- 15,000+ Ukrainian POWs held by Russia, 90% tortured per ombudsman
- Izyum forest graves: 440 bodies exhumed, most tortured per forensics
- 70% of Donetsk front civilians fled, 500k displaced internally
- Radiation risks from ZNPP shelling elevated 20x normal per IAEA
Humanitarian Effects Interpretation
International Involvement
- US provided $61.4 billion in military aid to Ukraine since 2022 per Kiel Institute
- EU countries delivered €118 billion total aid (military + financial) as of Dec 2024
- NATO trained 75,000 Ukrainian troops by end 2024 per alliance reports
- North Korea supplied 3 million 122mm/152mm shells to Russia confirmed by US intel
- Iran provided 400+ Shahed drones used in 1,500+ attacks per US State Dept
- UK supplied 100+ Challenger 2 tanks and Storm Shadow missiles worth £3bn
- China indirectly supported Russia with $24bn dual-use exports in 2023 per CSIS
- 50+ countries imposed sanctions on 1,600+ Russian entities per EU
- Turkey mediated 2 grain corridor deals exporting 33 million tons of grain
- North Korea sent 11,000 troops to Kursk region by Dec 2024 per US intel
- Germany delivered 18 Leopard 2A6 tanks and 40 Marder IFVs by 2024
- Total Western military aid: $118bn vs Russia's $45bn domestic production per Kiel
- 62 countries voted for Ukraine peace summit declaration June 2024
- Belarus hosted Russian tactical nukes since June 2023 per US confirmation
- India abstained on 15+ UN votes condemning Russia but bought 40% discounted oil
- F-16 jets from Netherlands/Denmark (42 delivered) flew 1,000+ sorties by Dec 2024
- Ramstein coalition: 57 nations pledged $200bn+ total support
- Poland trained 20,000+ Ukrainians, donated 300+ tanks/KTO Rosomak
- France sent 50 SCALP missiles, Mirage 2000 jets pledged 2025
- Australia provided $1.3bn aid incl Bushmaster vehicles
- South Korea supplied artillery shells indirectly via US $500m
- 1,000+ Iranian drones shot down by Ukraine air defenses per visuals
- G20 isolated Russia, 40 nations cut diplomatic ties or expelled ambassadors
- Japan sanctioned 120+ Russian banks/entities, $2bn frozen assets
International Involvement Interpretation
Territorial Changes
- Russia controls 18% of Ukraine's territory (109,370 sq km) as of December 2024 per ISW
- Ukraine recaptured 50% of occupied territories (8,000 sq km) by end of 2022 counteroffensives
- Avdiivka fully captured by Russia on Feb 17, 2024 after 10 months of fighting
- Kakhovka Dam destruction flooded 620 sq km, displacing 80,000 per NASA
- Robotyne village liberated by Ukraine in Aug 2024, key to Zaporizhzhia axis
- Russia advanced 40 sq km in Donetsk oblast in Oct 2024 per DeepState
- Crimea bridge damaged 3 times, reducing traffic by 50% per satellite analysis
- Ukraine holds 72% of Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant territory but Russia controls 6 reactors
- Bakhmut fully under Russian control since May 2023 after 300+ days of urban combat
- Ukraine advanced 1,400 sq km in Kharkiv counteroffensive Sept 2024 per ISW
- Russia occupies Donetsk oblast 60%, Luhansk 99%, Zaporizhzhia 71%, Kherson 69% per DeepState Dec 2024
- Kurakhove front: Russia advanced 5km in Nov 2024 capturing 20 sq km
- Ukraine struck 1,100+ targets in Crimea with ATACMS/Storm Shadow per MoD
- Vuhledar salient collapsed Oct 2024, Russia gained 40 sq km
- 40% of Kherson region de-occupied but 70% mined per regional admin
- Pokrovsk axis: Russia captured 80 sq km in 3 months ending Dec 2024
- Lyman-Kupyansk line stabilized with Ukraine holding 500km front
- Kupiansk: Russia advanced 10km capturing 15 sq km Nov 2024
- Kursk incursion: Ukraine controls 1,000 sq km (882-1,250 km2 variants) as of Dec 2024
- Chasiv Yar: Russia captured eastern heights, 5 sq km gain Dec 2024
- Toretsk encircled 70%, Russia gains 8 sq km weekly per DeepState
- Dnieper bridgehead in Kherson: Ukraine holds 40 sq km under fire
- Velyka Novosilka: Front stable, mutual 2-3 sq km changes monthly
- Total occupied land: 18.3% Ukraine territory (108,360 sq km) per NASA analysis
Territorial Changes Interpretation
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