The global LNG industry, now commanding over $200 billion in value, is being reshaped by a record-setting race for capacity as heavyweights like the US, Qatar, and Australia vie for export dominance while new demand centers emerge across Asia and Europe.
Key Takeaways
- Global LNG liquefaction capacity reached 500 million tonnes per annum (MTPA) in 2023
- Qatar operates the world's largest LNG export facility with 77 MTPA capacity
- Australia surpassed Qatar as the top LNG exporter in 2022 with 81.3 MTPA production
- Global LNG demand reached 404 mt in 2023, up 4%
- China imported 79 mt LNG in 2023, world's largest
- Japan LNG imports fell to 66 mt in 2023 from coal shift
- Global LNG trade volume was 404 mt in 2023
- US became largest LNG exporter with 91 mt shipped in 2023
- Qatar exported 77 mt LNG in 2023
- JCC index averaged $15/MMBtu in 2023
- Henry Hub spot price averaged $2.50/MMBtu in 2023
- JKM Asia spot LNG price peaked at $70/MMBtu in 2022
- Global regasification capacity 1,100 MTPA in 2023
- China has 27 LNG terminals with 150 MTPA capacity
- Japan operates 35 regas terminals totaling 210 MTPA
Global LNG capacity and trade are expanding rapidly across multiple continents.
Consumption
- Global LNG demand reached 404 mt in 2023, up 4%
- China imported 79 mt LNG in 2023, world's largest
- Japan LNG imports fell to 66 mt in 2023 from coal shift
- South Korea consumed 45 mt LNG in 2023
- India LNG imports rose 10% to 25 mt in 2023
- Europe LNG imports hit record 120 mt in 2023
- US LNG consumption stable at 85 Bcm domestically
- Turkey LNG imports reached 15 mt in 2023
- Pakistan imported 8 mt LNG under long-term contracts
- Bangladesh LNG imports up 20% to 12 mt
- Vietnam LNG consumption to reach 15 mt by 2025
- Philippines imported 4 mt LNG starting 2022
- Thailand LNG demand 6 mt annually
- Singapore regasified 22 mt LNG in 2023
- Taiwan LNG imports 18 mt in 2023
- EU LNG imports from US reached 50 mt in 2023
- France LNG imports 30 mt, key European hub
- Spain consumed 28 mt LNG in 2023
- Netherlands imported 15 mt LNG via Gate terminal
- UK LNG imports averaged 15 mt post-Russia cut
- Germany started LNG imports at 10 mt in 2023
- Italy LNG imports 20 mt in 2023
- Brazil LNG imports reached 5 mt in 2023
- Global LNG consumption growth forecast at 4% to 2025
- Asia accounts for 75% of LNG demand growth
- Power sector LNG use up 10% in emerging markets
- Residential/commercial LNG use 5% of total
- Industry sector consumes 40% of global LNG
Consumption Interpretation
The global LNG stage is seeing a reshuffled cast, with China cementing its lead role as Asia’s thirst drives the plot, while Europe’s record-setting imports for energy security and a surging supporting cast of emerging markets prove this is anything but a one-act play.
Environmental
- Methane emissions from LNG chain 0.2% average
- LNG reduces CO2 emissions 40% vs coal in power gen
- Scope 1+2 emissions from LNG 170 gCO2/MJ
- Flared gas equivalent to 8 Bcm LNG potential saved
- Bio-LNG production capacity 1 mt/year globally
- LNG bunkering ports reached 150 worldwide
- Dual-fuel LNG ships orders 500 vessels by 2025
- CO2 from LNG shipping 10 gCO2/MJ, vs 20 for oil
- CCS projects at LNG plants capture 5 mt CO2/year
- Hydrogen blending in LNG up to 20% tested
- LNG-to-power efficiency 60% in combined cycle
- Black carbon emissions from LNG 90% less than diesel
- Water use in LNG liquefaction 1-2 m3/tonne
- Noise levels at LNG terminals <50 dB, compliant
- Biodiversity offsets for LNG projects 1M hectares
- Renewables + LNG to meet 50% Asia power by 2030
- LNG role in net-zero pathways 20% gas demand 2050
- Methane slip from LNG engines <1 g/kWh new tech
- Global LNG carbon intensity targets <150 gCO2/MJ by 2030
- EU CBAM impacts LNG imports +$1/MMBtu
- 40 LNG projects with CCS announced
- Synthetic methane from LNG waste heat viable
- LNG flexibility aids 30% renewables integration
Environmental Interpretation
While the LNG industry showcases impressive technological strides in efficiency and emissions reduction, its true net-zero potential hinges on urgently scaling carbon capture, slashing methane leaks, and transforming from a bridge fuel into a carrier for truly renewable gases.
Future Trends
- Global LNG trade set to double by 2040 to 800 mt
- New demand from SE Asia 100 mt by 2030
- US LNG exports to reach 200 MTPA by 2030
- Middle East capacity to grow 100 MTPA 2025-2030
- Africa LNG supply +50 MTPA from Mozambique/Nigeria
- Russia Arctic LNG exports via NSR 50 mt/year by 2030
- Floating LNG projects 50 MTPA new capacity
- Small-scale LNG market $10B by 2030
- LNG as marine fuel to 20 mt/year by 2030
- Power-to-X using LNG off-gas 5 mt e-fuel potential
- Contract market shifting to 10-year deals hub-linked
- AI optimisation cuts LNG shipping 10% fuel
- Digital twins for LNG plants improve uptime 5%
- Modular LNG trains reduce capex 20%
- Blue hydrogen from LNG SMR + CCS 10 mt/year 2030
- Peak LNG demand 2030-2035 at 700 mt
- Oversupply pressures prices to $5-7/MMBtu long-term
- Geopolitical diversification reduces Russia share to 10%
- Emerging importers like Philippines +10 mt demand
- Latin America LNG imports +15 mt by 2030
- Australia capacity peaks then declines post-2030
Future Trends Interpretation
The global LNG industry is bracing for a seismic shift, poised to double in trade by 2040, yet it must deftly navigate a volatile future where a scramble for new supply from the US to Africa collides with a projected peak in demand, all while a quiet revolution in technology and contracts reshapes its very foundations.
Infrastructure
- Global regasification capacity 1,100 MTPA in 2023
- China has 27 LNG terminals with 150 MTPA capacity
- Japan operates 35 regas terminals totaling 210 MTPA
- South Korea 7 terminals, 100 MTPA capacity
- Europe has 25 LNG terminals, capacity 300 MTPA
- US has 5 operational export terminals, 14 under construction
- Gate.nl Netherlands terminal capacity 17 MTPA
- Montoir France terminal 10 MTPA throughput
- Barcelona Spain regas 22 MTPA
- South Hook UK terminal 30% of UK gas
- Wilhelmshaven Germany FSRU 10 Bcm/year
- Brunsbuettel Germany FSRU operational 2023
- India 7 terminals under development, 60 MTPA
- Vietnam Thi Vai terminal 3 MTPA
- Thailand Map Ta Phut 10 MTPA
- Indonesia Donggi-Senoro FLNG regas
- LNG trucking fleet in Europe 500 trucks
- Global FSRU fleet 50 units, growing 20%/year
- PipeChina built 10 new terminals 2023
- Aramco Yanbu terminal Saudi 3 MTPA import
- Egypt Ain Sokhna terminal expanded to 12 MTPA
- Brazil Guanabara Bay FSRU 5 MTPA
- 120 new FIDs expected by 2030 for LNG plants
- Global LNG pipeline length 50,000 km
- Qatar LNG trains 1-4 utilisation 105% in 2023
Infrastructure Interpretation
While China and Japan dominate global regasification with vast networks of terminals, the frantic construction of new facilities worldwide reveals that the race to secure LNG is heating up faster than the infrastructure can be built.
Market
- JCC index averaged $15/MMBtu in 2023
- Henry Hub spot price averaged $2.50/MMBtu in 2023
- JKM Asia spot LNG price peaked at $70/MMBtu in 2022
- TTF Europe hub price averaged €40/MWh in 2023
- Global LNG market value exceeded $200 billion in 2023
- Spot market premium over oil fell to 10% in 2023
- US LNG FOB prices $6-8/MMBtu in 2023
- Brent crude correlation with LNG at 0.7
- LNG futures trading volume up 50% on ICE
- Portfolio players control 30% of spot trade
- Contract flexibility increased to 15% volume tolerance
- Take-or-pay clauses still 90% of contracts
- New contracts average 13% slope to oil price
- Hub-priced contracts rose to 20% of new deals
- Global LNG oversupply expected 20 mt in 2024
- Demand destruction in Europe cut prices 50% YoY
- Asia regas terminal utilisation 85% average
- Winter demand spikes lifted JKM to $12/MMBtu
- Summer troughs saw JKM at $10/MMBtu
- Volatility index for LNG futures at 40%
- 50-year contracts rare, average tenor 15 years
Market Interpretation
The global LNG market in 2023 was a wildly profitable and geographically schizophrenic circus, fueled by resilient long-term contracts and an oil price leash, where the U.S. made a mint selling cheap gas at a premium, Europe paid a fortune to avoid freezing, and Asia braced for both winter price spikes and a looming glut.
Production
- Global LNG liquefaction capacity reached 500 million tonnes per annum (MTPA) in 2023
- Qatar operates the world's largest LNG export facility with 77 MTPA capacity
- Australia surpassed Qatar as the top LNG exporter in 2022 with 81.3 MTPA production
- US LNG exports hit a record 91.2 million tonnes in 2023
- Russia’s Yamal LNG project has a capacity of 16.5 MTPA
- Nigeria's LNG production capacity stands at 22 MTPA from NLNG
- Indonesia's LNG capacity totals 27.5 MTPA across multiple trains
- Malaysia's Bintulu LNG plant has 29.1 MTPA capacity
- Egypt's LNG production reached 3.5 MTPA in 2022
- Angola's LNG plant capacity is 5.2 MTPA
- Papua New Guinea's PNG LNG exports 8.3 MTPA
- Oman’s Qalhat LNG capacity is 3.7 MTPA
- Algeria's LNG production was 14.2 million tonnes in 2022
- Trinidad and Tobago LNG capacity is 15.3 MTPA
- Brunei’s LNG capacity is 10.6 MTPA
- Global LNG regasification capacity exceeded 1,000 MTPA in 2023
- US Gulf Coast LNG capacity expansions added 20 MTPA since 2022
- Mozambique's Rovuma LNG project targets 15.5 MTPA Phase 1
- Canada’s LNG Canada project to produce 14 MTPA from 2025
- Arctic LNG 2 in Russia aims for 19.8 MTPA
- Golden Pass LNG in US to add 18 MTPA by 2026
- Plaquemines LNG Phase 1 capacity 20 MTPA
- Qatar North Field expansion to add 48 MTPA by 2027
- US LNG production grew 10% YoY in 2023
- World LNG supply increased 5% to 404 Bcm in 2022
- Top 5 LNG producers account for 65% of global supply
- Floating LNG (FLNG) capacity reached 20 MTPA globally
- Small-scale LNG production growing at 15% CAGR
- Asia Pacific holds 45% of global LNG capacity
- New LNG projects under construction total 250 MTPA
Production Interpretation
The global LNG stage is a high-stakes game of musical chairs, where Qatar builds the biggest throne, Australia briefly grabbed the crown, but America is now roaring from the rafters with record exports, all while a queue of ambitious new projects waits impatiently in the wings.
Trade
- Global LNG trade volume was 404 mt in 2023
- US became largest LNG exporter with 91 mt shipped in 2023
- Qatar exported 77 mt LNG in 2023
- Australia exported 81 mt LNG in 2023
- Russia LNG exports reached 33 mt despite sanctions
- Malaysia exported 27 mt LNG in 2023
- UAE LNG exports from Das Island 6 mt annually
- Nigeria exported 20 mt LNG in 2023
- Indonesia LNG exports down to 15 mt in 2023
- Oman exported 4 mt LNG in 2023
- Egypt net LNG exporter with 4 mt surplus
- Angola LNG exports 4.5 mt annually
- Papua New Guinea exported 9 mt LNG
- Trinidad exported 14 mt LNG in 2023
- Brunei exports 12 mt LNG yearly
- Algeria exported 18 mt LNG in 2023
- Canada LNG exports began with small volumes in 2023
- China largest importer at 79 mt LNG in 2023
- Japan imported 66 mt LNG in 2023
- South Korea 45 mt LNG imports in 2023
- India 25 mt LNG imports in 2023
- Europe total LNG imports 121 mt in 2023
- Spot LNG trade share reached 32% in 2023
- Long-term contracts cover 68% of LNG trade
- US supplied 48% of Europe's LNG imports in 2023
- Qatar's share of global LNG trade 18%
- FOB sales increased to 25% of trade volume
- DES deliveries still dominant at 45%
- LNG shipping fleet grew to 700 vessels in 2023
- Average LNG tanker size 170,000 cbm
Trade Interpretation
The global LNG chessboard is now unmistakably crowned by American gas, as Uncle Sam dethroned Qatar's long reign by shipping 91 million tons in 2023, proving that while sanctions may slightly crimp Russia's style at 33 million tons, the world will still eagerly buy from whoever can profitably chill and ship it.
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