Key Takeaways
- Global green hydrogen production capacity announced reached 390 GW by end of 2023
- Europe leads with 41% of announced green hydrogen capacity at 163 GW
- Australia has 15 GW of announced green hydrogen projects
- Levelized cost of green hydrogen in best locations fell to $1.5/kg in 2023
- Global average LCOH for green hydrogen projected at $3-5/kg by 2030
- Electrolyser CAPEX dropped 60% since 2019 to $500/kW
- Global green hydrogen market valued at $1.4 billion in 2023
- Green hydrogen market projected to grow to $50 billion by 2030 CAGR 39%
- Demand for green H2 to reach 110 Mt by 2030 per Hydrogen Council
- Green H2 avoids 6 Gt CO2 emissions annually by 2050
- Producing 80 Mt green H2 displaces 580 Mt CO2/year vs grey H2
- Green H2 production emits 0-1 kg CO2/kg H2 lifecycle
- Global investments in green H2 reached $10B in 2023
- Hydrogen Council members commit $25B by 2023
- EU allocates €5.4B for electrolysers under IPCEI
Global green hydrogen has capacity, projects, costs, demand, growth, policies.
Costs
- Levelized cost of green hydrogen in best locations fell to $1.5/kg in 2023
- Global average LCOH for green hydrogen projected at $3-5/kg by 2030
- Electrolyser CAPEX dropped 60% since 2019 to $500/kW
- Green hydrogen costs in Europe expected $2.3/kg by 2030 with subsidies
- Solar-powered green H2 LCOH at $1.3/kg in Chile by 2025 forecast
- Wind-based green hydrogen LCOH $1.7/kg in Australia 2023
- Stack CAPEX for PEM electrolysers $300/kW achievable by 2030
- Green hydrogen cheaper than grey in 10% of world by 2025 projections
- US tax credit 45V reduces green H2 effective cost by $3/kg
- EU Hydrogen Bank auctions support projects with €1.4/kg premiums
- OPEX for green hydrogen plants 3-4% of CAPEX annually
- Financing costs dominate 30% of LCOH at 8% WACC
- Alkaline electrolyser CAPEX $800-1400/kW in 2023
- PEM electrolyser CAPEX $1000-1700/kW globally 2023
- LCOH sensitivity: 10% CAPEX drop reduces cost 8%
- Green H2 production cost parity with fossil at $1.4/kg needed
- Australia's green H2 export cost $2/kg by 2030 target
- India's green H2 incentive scheme SIGHT up to ₹4,400/MT
- Global electrolyser cost to fall 60% to $200/kW by 2030
- Electricity cost 50-70% of green H2 LCOH
- Saudi Arabia green H2 LCOH $1.5/kg due to cheap solar
- Brazil offshore wind green H2 potential $1.6/kg LCOH
Costs Interpretation
Environmental
- Green H2 avoids 6 Gt CO2 emissions annually by 2050
- Producing 80 Mt green H2 displaces 580 Mt CO2/year vs grey H2
- Green H2 production emits 0-1 kg CO2/kg H2 lifecycle
- Grey hydrogen emits 9-12 kg CO2/kg H2
- Blue H2 with CCS captures 90-95% emissions
- Green H2 in steel reduces emissions 95% vs coal
- Electrolyser water use 9-18 L/kg H2
- Green H2 enables 30% renewable curtailment reduction
- Producing 10 Mt green H2 saves 75 Mt CO2/year equivalent
- Land use for 80 GW solar + electrolysers 0.1% global land
- Green H2 transport emissions <1% of energy content
- H2 leakage impact minimal at <1% if managed
- Green H2 in ammonia cuts fertilizer emissions 70%
- Refineries with green H2 reduce 20 Mt CO2/year by 2030
- Cement with H2 plasma cuts emissions 100% vs fossil
- Green H2 supports negative emissions via BECCS integration
- Global renewable capacity for green H2 needs 3,600 GW by 2050
- Water recycling in electrolysers >95% feasible
- Green H2 avoids 1.5 Gt CO2 in chemicals by 2050
- H2 economy reduces air pollution 20% in urban areas
- Lifecycle GHG for green H2 <0.5 kg CO2e/kg in optimal sites
- Green H2 displaces 500 Mt oil equivalent by 2050
Environmental Interpretation
Investments
- Global investments in green H2 reached $10B in 2023
- Hydrogen Council members commit $25B by 2023
- EU allocates €5.4B for electrolysers under IPCEI
- US IRA provides $3/kg tax credit worth $100B+ potential
- Australia's $2B Hydrogen Headstart program
- Saudi NEOM $8.4B green H2 investment
- Global VC funding for H2 startups $2.5B in 2023
- China's 2023 H2 investment $1.5B
- India $2.4B incentives for green H2 mission
- Total announced H2 projects $320B capex
- Europe's REPowerEU €300B total H2 plan
- Japan $13B H2 strategy investment to 2030
- Private equity H2 deals $5B in 2023
- Global electrolyser orders $15B in 2023
- UK £240M H2 allocation round 1
- Chile $5B green H2 pipeline funding
- Total global H2 investment needs $1.2T by 2040
- Africa H2 investment potential $150B by 2030
- Corporate PPAs for green H2 renewables $10B
- Brazil H2 strategy $10B public-private funds
Investments Interpretation
Market
- Global green hydrogen market valued at $1.4 billion in 2023
- Green hydrogen market projected to grow to $50 billion by 2030 CAGR 39%
- Demand for green H2 to reach 110 Mt by 2030 per Hydrogen Council
- Refining sector to consume 25 Mt green H2 by 2050
- Steel industry green H2 demand 35 Mt by 2050
- Ammonia production 40 Mt green H2 need by 2050
- Shipping sector potential 30 Mt green H2 by 2050
- Global H2 demand to triple by 2030 to 190 Mt
- Green H2 share in total H2 to rise from 0.1% to 49% by 2050
- Asia-Pacific dominates green H2 market with 40% share 2023
- Europe invests €470 billion in H2 infrastructure by 2040
- Green H2 transport via pipelines to grow 20x by 2030
- Liquid H2 shipping capacity to expand 25-fold by 2030
- Green H2 derivatives market ammonia $30B by 2030
- Methanol from green H2 market $15B projection 2030
- Heavy trucking 5 Mt H2 demand by 2030
- Aviation sustainable fuels 10 Mt H2 equivalent by 2050
- Global H2 trade to reach 40 Mt by 2030, 40% green
- US green H2 demand 10 Mt by 2050 from IRA
Market Interpretation
Policy
- Global policy support mechanisms in 40 countries
- EU Hydrogen Strategy targets 10 Mt import + 10 Mt production by 2030
- US 45V tax credit $3/kg for <0.45 kg CO2/kg H2 from 2028
- Germany's National H2 Strategy €9B funding
- India's Green H2 Mission ₹19,744 Cr allocation
- Australia's Future Made in Australia Act H2 incentives
- Japan's Basic H2 Strategy 3.4 MnT by 2030
- South Korea H2 Economy Roadmap 5 MnT by 2030
- 25% of global electrolysers deployed in policy-supported regions
- EU ETS carbon pricing drives H2 adoption post-2030
- China's 14th Five-Year Plan includes H2 R&D funding
- France H2 acceleration strategy €9B
- Global 60+ H2 policies tracked by IEA
- UK's Hydrogen Strategy 10 GW electrolysers by 2030
- Namibia H2 policy bill for 2% GDP from exports
- IRENA 30 countries with H2 roadmaps
- Global H2 standards harmonization under ISO TC197
- EU Critical Raw Materials Act supports H2 supply chain
Policy Interpretation
Production Capacity
- Global green hydrogen production capacity announced reached 390 GW by end of 2023
- Europe leads with 41% of announced green hydrogen capacity at 163 GW
- Australia has 15 GW of announced green hydrogen projects
- Operational green hydrogen electrolyser capacity worldwide was 1.4 GW in 2023
- China added 780 MW of electrolyser capacity in 2023, reaching 1 GW total
- Over 350 green hydrogen projects announced globally totaling 134 GW electrolyser capacity
- Saudi Arabia's NEOM project plans 4 GW green hydrogen production by 2026
- India's National Green Hydrogen Mission targets 5 million tonnes annual production by 2030
- US Inflation Reduction Act supports 10 GW new electrolyser capacity by 2030
- Namibia's Hyphen Hydrogen project to produce 300,000 tonnes/year with 3 GW electrolysers
- Chile's green hydrogen capacity pipeline at 17 GW
- Morocco's planned 1 GW electrolyser for green ammonia export
- Brazil announces 16 GW green hydrogen projects
- Germany's H2Global scheme funds 1 GW electrolyser deployment
- Japan's Fukuoka Hydrogen Park features 20 MW electrolyser
- UAE's DEWA plans 1 GW green hydrogen plant by 2030
- South Africa's 10 GW green hydrogen valley planned
- Europe's HyDeal Ambition targets 67 GW electrolysers by 2030
- Global electrolyser manufacturing capacity hit 25 GW/year in 2023
- China's electrolyser exports reached 2 GW capacity in 2023
- Australia's Western Green Energy hub to build 25 GW electrolysers
- Oman targets 1 million tonnes green hydrogen by 2030 with 3.5 GW capacity
- Global green hydrogen production forecast to reach 42 Mt by 2030 in Net Zero Scenario
- US DOE Hydrogen Shot aims for 10 million tonnes low-cost hydrogen by 2031
Production Capacity Interpretation
Sources & References
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