Earth has already warmed by about 1.1°C since 1850 to 1900, and with 2023 the warmest year on record across multiple datasets, the numbers make one thing unmistakably clear: global warming is not a future threat but a present reality.
Key Takeaways
- Global surface temperature has increased by 1.1°C above 1850–1900 in 2011–2020, as reported in the IPCC AR6 Synthesis Report
- The rate of increase in global surface temperature was higher in 1970–2010 (0.17°C per decade) than in 1901–1970 (0.07°C per decade)
- In 2011–2020, each of the past five years (2016–2020) reached or exceeded 1.1°C above 1850–1900
- From 2006–2015, the Antarctic ice sheet mass change was about -65 Gt/yr (approximate best estimate)
- From 2010–2019, Greenland ice sheet mass balance was about -280 Gt/yr (best estimate)
- Global glacier mass loss has accelerated; total mass loss since 2001 is about -267 ± 28 Gt/yr
- Atmospheric CO2 concentration increased from 278.3 ppm in 1850 to 417.1 ppm in 2023 (annual mean)
- Annual mean atmospheric CO2 reached 420.0 ppm (NOAA trend)
- NOAA reports CO2 growth rate was 2.3 ppm in 2023 (global mean)
- Global average ocean heat content increased by about 40–90% of the excess heat since 1955 being stored in the ocean
- NASA reports that the global ocean has absorbed the majority of Earth’s excess heat since the 1970s
- NASA vital sign data show ocean heat content (0–2000 m) increased by hundreds of zettajoules; one value displayed is about 228 zettajoules (1961–2023 anomaly)
- The IPCC AR6 states that future warming depends on cumulative CO2 emissions and non-CO2 forcing, but global temperature is expected to reach at least 1.5°C above preindustrial during 21st century unless deep reductions occur
- The IPCC AR6 indicates that with current pledges (as of 2020), global warming is likely to exceed 2.0°C by 2100
- Under SSP5-8.5, warming by 2100 is likely around 4.4°C (best estimate) relative to 1850–1900
Global warming accelerates: 2023 hottest, oceans absorb heat, sea levels rise.
Temperature Change and Climate Indicators
1Global surface temperature has increased by 1.1°C above 1850–1900 in 2011–2020, as reported in the IPCC AR6 Synthesis Report[1]
Verified2The rate of increase in global surface temperature was higher in 1970–2010 (0.17°C per decade) than in 1901–1970 (0.07°C per decade)[2]
Verified3In 2011–2020, each of the past five years (2016–2020) reached or exceeded 1.1°C above 1850–1900[3]
Verified42019 was the second-warmest year on record globally at about 1.1°C above 1850–1900[4]
Directional52020 was the warmest year on record at about 1.2°C above 1850–1900 for NASA’s GISTEMP analysis[5]
Single source62021 was the sixth-warmest year in the NASA GISTEMP record at about 1.1–1.2°C above 1951–1980 baseline[5]
Verified72022 global average temperature was about 1.2°C above 1850–1900 in the ERA5-based reanalysis[6]
Verified82023 was about 1.4°C above preindustrial levels in the Copernicus global temperature indicator[7]
Verified92023 was the warmest year on record globally in multiple datasets including Copernicus and NOAA[8]
Directional102016 was the warmest year on record globally (NASA GISTEMP)[5]
Single source112010–2019 was the warmest decade in the instrumental record[3]
Verified12The IPCC AR6 states the best estimate of global surface temperature increase for 2010–2019 relative to 1850–1900 is 1.09°C[9]
Verified13The total anthropogenic CO2 emissions from 1850–2019 have led to approximately +1.0°C of warming relative to 1850–1900 in 2019, as summarized in AR6[9]
Verified14Anthropogenic warming has reached ~1.1°C by 2011–2020 per IPCC AR6[9]
Directional15Sea level rise is accompanied by ocean warming; the ocean has absorbed more than 90% of the excess heat[9]
Single source16The AR6 Synthesis Report indicates surface temperature increases are not uniform and are higher over land than oceans[9]
Verified17Arctic surface air temperature has increased at least about twice as fast as the global average since 1970[10]
Verified18The Northern Hemisphere has warmed faster than the Southern Hemisphere since 1970, with land warming faster than ocean[10]
Verified19Global mean sea surface temperature has increased by about 0.88°C from 1901–2016[2]
Directional20The IPCC AR6 indicates that global warming of 1.5°C and 2.0°C would involve specific incremental changes, with 1.5°C thresholds frequently crossed in individual years[9]
Single source21In the World Meteorological Organization “State of the Global Climate” 2023, the global mean temperature in 2023 was about 1.45°C above preindustrial levels[11]
Verified22WMO reports that 2023 was the warmest year on record, about 1.45°C above the 1850–1900 average[11]
Verified23NOAA’s global temperature analysis shows 2023 as the warmest year on record, with an anomaly of +1.32°C relative to 20th-century average[12]
Verified24NASA GISTEMP indicates 2023 global temperature anomaly was about +1.2°C relative to 1951–1980[5]
Directional25The Copernicus global temperature indicator shows 2022 annual global mean near +1.1°C relative to 1850–1900[13]
Single source26The NOAA global time series indicates 2014–2023 contained 10 of the 11 warmest years on record[14]
Verified27The IPCC AR6 states that global surface temperature will likely increase by 1.0°C to 3.7°C by 2100 depending on emissions pathways[15]
Verified28By the end of 21st century, the IPCC likely range for warming is 2.0°C to 5.7°C relative to 1850–1900 depending on scenario[15]
Verified29The IPCC AR6 indicates that global warming is unlikely to stop abruptly if CO2 emissions stop, because of cumulative CO2 effect[15]
Directional30Global average temperature anomaly for 1880–2023 from NOAA’s global time series is provided as a dataset; for 2023 it’s about +1.25°C relative to 1901–2000[16]
Single source31The IPCC AR6 indicates the likely increase in global average temperature in 2021–2040 relative to 1850–1900 under SSP1–2.6 is ~0.7°C[15]
Verified32The IPCC AR6 indicates the likely increase in global average temperature in 2021–2040 under SSP5–8.5 is ~1.8°C[15]
Verified33The global mean land temperature has increased by about 1.59°C since 1850–1900 per IPCC AR6 (best estimate)[10]
Verified34Over the period 1991–2020, the average Arctic amplification is at least about a factor of two compared to global[10]
Directional35The IPCC AR6 states that human influence is the dominant cause of observed warming since at least the mid-20th century[15]
Single source36The AR6 concludes it is virtually certain that internal variability alone cannot explain observed warming[15]
Verified37Global atmospheric carbon dioxide is associated with warming; CO2 increased from 280 ppm (preindustrial) to 420 ppm (2018)[17]
Verified38Methane is a greenhouse gas; CH4 increased from about 722 ppb (preindustrial) to about 1875 ppb (2019)[18]
Verified39Nitrous oxide increased from about 270 ppb (preindustrial) to about 333 ppb (2019)[19]
Directional40The IPCC AR6 notes that global warming is associated with increasing frequency of extreme heat events[15]
Single source41In 2018, the global mean surface temperature anomaly was about +0.89°C above the 20th century average (NASA)[5]
VerifiedTemperature Change and Climate Indicators Interpretation
Since the industrial era, the planet has warmed by about 1.1 degrees Celsius, with recent years repeatedly tying and breaking heat records, while the ocean and atmosphere soak up ever more of humanity’s greenhouse gases—because when CO2 keeps building, the warming does not politely stop just because we ask it to.
Ice Sheets, Glaciers, Snow, and Sea Level
1From 2006–2015, the Antarctic ice sheet mass change was about -65 Gt/yr (approximate best estimate)[20]
Verified2From 2010–2019, Greenland ice sheet mass balance was about -280 Gt/yr (best estimate)[20]
Verified3Global glacier mass loss has accelerated; total mass loss since 2001 is about -267 ± 28 Gt/yr[21]
Verified4The IPCC AR6 states that glaciers worldwide have lost mass since the 1960s, with acceleration in recent decades[20]
Directional5Arctic sea ice extent declined by about 13% per decade relative to 1981–2010 for September[22]
Single source6Arctic sea ice extent declined by about 3.8% per decade per year relative to 1981–2010 for March[22]
Verified7The IPCC AR6 indicates the reduction in Arctic sea ice extent is more pronounced in summer than winter[20]
Verified8Antarctic sea ice extent declined by about 1% per decade from 1979–2019 (approximate)[20]
Verified9Global mean sea level rise was 0.20 m from 1901–2018 and 0.15–0.30 m from 2006–2018 (approx ranges)[23]
Directional10Global mean sea level rose by 3.7 ± 0.4 mm/yr (1993–2010) per satellite altimetry[23]
Single source11The IPCC AR6 indicates the rate of global mean sea level rise increased to around 3.3 mm/yr during 2006–2018[23]
Verified12Tides gauge records show global mean sea level rose about 0.19 m from 1901–2010[24]
Verified13Thermal expansion accounts for more than half of sea level rise since 1971, per IPCC AR6[23]
Verified14Ice sheet mass loss accounted for about a quarter to a third of observed sea level rise since 2006[23]
Directional15Glaciers contributed a smaller fraction but still a significant component of sea level rise since the 2000s[23]
Single source16Greenland melt and ice loss has been increasing in recent decades, with mass loss on the order of hundreds of gigatons per year[25]
Verified17NASA reports Arctic sea ice extent has declined by about 13% per decade since 1979[26]
Verified18NASA reports the Greenland ice sheet has lost an average of 279 billion tons of ice per year from 2010–2019[25]
Verified19NASA reports Antarctica has lost an average of 148 billion tons of ice per year from 2010–2019[25]
Directional20NASA reports glaciers have been shrinking and losing mass faster since the 2000s; total ice loss is about 267 billion tons per year (2001–2016)[27]
Single source21NASA reports the rate of global mean sea level rise is about 3.4 mm/yr over recent decades[28]
Verified22NASA reports sea level rise has accelerated from about 1.7 mm/yr in 1901–1971 to about 3.4 mm/yr in 2006–2015[28]
Verified23NSIDC reports September Arctic sea ice minimum has declined steadily; 2023 had the second-lowest extent on record[29]
Verified24In the WMO “State of the Global Climate 2023,” global sea level continued rising with ongoing acceleration[11]
Directional25The WMO report notes Arctic sea ice reached record low levels in 2023 (for September extent)[11]
Single source26GRACE satellite observations show Antarctic mass loss increased in recent years, with values on the order of -100 to -200 Gt/yr in 2010s[25]
Verified27The IPCC AR6 reports that snow cover has decreased in springtime in the Northern Hemisphere[20]
Verified28IPCC AR6 indicates that Northern Hemisphere snow cover extent over land has decreased by about 10% since 1967[20]
Verified29The Cryosphere Monitoring results show that permafrost area is affected by thawing; high-latitude permafrost is warming rapidly, with impacts on ground ice[30]
Directional30A NASA vital sign notes Arctic permafrost temperatures have risen several degrees over past decades in some regions[30]
Single source31IPCC AR6 indicates that permafrost thaw increases greenhouse gas emissions and affects surface albedo[31]
Verified32The IPCC AR6 indicates that changes in glaciers affect freshwater resources and sea level[20]
Verified33Sea level rise projected under SSP1–2.6 by 2100 is 0.28–0.55 m relative to 2000 under the AR6 scenario framework[15]
Verified34Sea level rise projected under SSP5–8.5 by 2100 is 0.63–1.01 m relative to 2000 under AR6[15]
Directional35The IPCC AR6 gives a 2.0°C warming world with likely sea level rise of 0.44–0.84 m by 2100 (relative to 2000)[15]
Single source36Antarctic surface mass balance increased to some degree at times, but overall mass balance remains negative; IPCC indicates net loss continuing[20]
Verified37Greenland ice sheet surface mass balance was negative in recent decades with increasingly negative anomalies[20]
Verified38Ice discharge from Greenland glaciers increased in some areas over 1990–2019, contributing to mass loss[20]
Verified39Arctic sea ice thickness has declined; average thickness in summer decreased from about 3–4 m in 1980s to about 1–2 m in recent years (approx)[22]
DirectionalIce Sheets, Glaciers, Snow, and Sea Level Interpretation
Across Greenland, Antarctica, glaciers, sea ice, snow, and even permafrost, the planet is steadily shedding ice and insulating less, so sea level rises faster while polar regions warm and lose reflective cover, leaving us with nothing to “balance” the books but time.
Greenhouse Gases and Radiative Forcing
1Atmospheric CO2 concentration increased from 278.3 ppm in 1850 to 417.1 ppm in 2023 (annual mean)[32]
Verified2Annual mean atmospheric CO2 reached 420.0 ppm (NOAA trend)[33]
Verified3NOAA reports CO2 growth rate was 2.3 ppm in 2023 (global mean)[32]
Verified4NOAA reports atmospheric methane (CH4) concentration reached 1910.1 ppb in 2023 (annual mean)[34]
Directional5NOAA reports CH4 growth rate was about 4.0 ppb in 2023[34]
Single source6NOAA reports atmospheric nitrous oxide (N2O) concentration reached 335.0 ppb in 2023 (annual mean)[35]
Verified7NOAA reports N2O growth rate was about 1.0 ppb in 2023[35]
Verified8The global mean radiative forcing from CO2 in 2019 was +1.68 W/m2 (IPCC AR6)[15]
Verified9The global mean radiative forcing from methane (CH4) in 2019 was +0.54 W/m2 (IPCC AR6)[15]
Directional10The global mean radiative forcing from N2O in 2019 was +0.17 W/m2 (IPCC AR6)[15]
Single source11Total radiative forcing from well-mixed greenhouse gases in 2019 was +3.06 W/m2 (IPCC AR6)[15]
Verified12Net radiative forcing due to CO2 doubling relative to preindustrial is about +3.7 W/m2 (canonical)[36]
Verified13CO2 concentration in 2019 was 411.0 ppm (global average)[37]
Verified14NOAA CCGG dataset shows CO2 at Mauna Loa reached 414.70 ppm in 2019[38]
Directional15NOAA CCGG dataset shows CO2 at South Pole reached 392.97 ppm in 2019[39]
Single source16The IPCC AR6 states total anthropogenic GHG radiative forcing in 2019 is +2.72 W/m2 relative to 1750 (approx)[15]
Verified17Effective radiative forcing since 1750 for CO2 from AR6 is about +1.68 W/m2 in 2019[15]
Verified18IPCC AR6 states the total global anthropogenic radiative forcing is +2.38 W/m2 (including aerosols)[15]
Verified19IPCC AR6 states aerosol-radiation forcing is negative, partially offsetting greenhouse forcing, with best estimate around -0.9 W/m2 in 2019[15]
Directional20Solar irradiance is a small part of recent forcing; IPCC AR6 reports effective radiative forcing from solar is about +0.05 W/m2 since 1750[15]
Single source21Volcanic aerosols contributed negative forcing in some periods; for example, Mt. Pinatubo produced about -3 W/m2 at peak (global) (NOAA/NASA summary)[40]
Verified22NOAA reports that global atmospheric CO2 exceeded 400 ppm in 2015 (first year)[37]
Verified23NOAA shows CO2 exceeded 410 ppm in 2019[37]
Verified24NOAA shows CO2 exceeded 415 ppm in 2020[37]
Directional25NOAA shows CO2 exceeded 420 ppm in 2022–2023 period (Mauna Loa peak)[38]
Single source26The IPCC AR6 indicates global warming is caused by multiple human agents, primarily greenhouse gas increases[15]
Verified27IPCC AR6 indicates that anthropogenic CO2 accounts for about 0.9°C of warming since 1850–1900[9]
Verified28The IPCC AR6 states that cumulative net anthropogenic CO2 emissions of about 2400 GtCO2 corresponds to limiting warming to 1.5°C[15]
Verified29The IPCC AR6 gives the remaining carbon budget for 1.5°C as about 250 GtCO2 from 2020 for a 50% chance[15]
Directional30IPCC AR6 indicates cumulative net CO2 emissions of about 3400 GtCO2 corresponds to limiting warming to 2°C[15]
Single source31IPCC AR6 indicates that non-CO2 forcers are responsible for the remaining warming beyond CO2 to reach ~1.1°C by 2011–2020[9]
Verified32Global mean CO2 increase rate in the early 2020s is around 2.4–2.5 ppm/year[32]
Verified33NOAA reports that methane’s growth rate has declined in recent years but remains elevated above preindustrial by more than 150%[34]
Verified34IPCC AR6 indicates effective radiative forcing from ozone changes is included with land/atmospheric chemistry; magnitude is small compared to CO2[15]
Directional35The AR6 Synthesis Report reports net anthropogenic GHG emissions are highest in recent years and continue to rise without additional mitigation[9]
Single source36The IPCC AR6 states that CO2 persists in the atmosphere for centuries to millennia[15]
Verified37IPCC AR6 indicates methane has a shorter atmospheric lifetime (~12 years on average) than CO2[15]
VerifiedGreenhouse Gases and Radiative Forcing Interpretation
From preindustrial CO2 around 278 ppm to over 417 ppm in 2023, with methane and nitrous oxide also climbing and together driving about +3 W per square meter of extra greenhouse forcing, the “blanket” effect is now so strong that IPCC modeling links human emissions to roughly a degree of warming from CO2 alone and shows we are burning through the remaining carbon budgets for 1.5°C and 2°C faster than mitigation can replace them, while even the soot and other particles that slightly offset heating only partially cancel the main trend, and because CO2 lingers for centuries, this is less a one year problem and more a long-lasting bill coming due.
Ocean Heat, Carbon Cycle, and Extreme Events
1Global average ocean heat content increased by about 40–90% of the excess heat since 1955 being stored in the ocean[41]
Verified2NASA reports that the global ocean has absorbed the majority of Earth’s excess heat since the 1970s[41]
Verified3NASA vital sign data show ocean heat content (0–2000 m) increased by hundreds of zettajoules; one value displayed is about 228 zettajoules (1961–2023 anomaly)[41]
Verified4NOAA reports ocean heat content to 2000 m has shown persistent increases, with strong contribution to sea level rise[42]
Directional5The IPCC AR6 states that the upper ocean (0–700m) has warmed and accounted for a substantial portion of heat uptake[10]
Single source6Ocean heat uptake rate has increased over recent decades; for instance, 0–700m ocean heat content increased at a higher rate after 1993[23]
Verified7The IPCC AR6 indicates that global mean sea level rise is strongly tied to ocean warming via thermal expansion[23]
Verified8Atmospheric CO2 increase drives ocean acidification; seawater surface pH has decreased by about 0.1 since preindustrial times[43]
Verified9NASA reports ocean acidification: surface ocean pH has dropped by about 0.1 from preindustrial, which corresponds to about a 30% increase in hydrogen ion concentration[43]
Directional10Observed global ocean acidity increase: about 26–30% increase in H+ concentration since preindustrial[44]
Single source11NOAA reports CO2 absorbed by oceans is responsible for ocean acidification[45]
Verified12The IPCC AR6 states that ocean warming has increased marine heatwaves frequency and intensity[23]
Verified13The IPCC AR6 finds that heatwaves have become more frequent and longer over most land areas[46]
Verified14The IPCC AR6 states that it is very likely that human influence has contributed to observed changes in extreme heat events[15]
Directional15The IPCC AR6 states that heavy precipitation events have increased in frequency and/or intensity in many regions[15]
Single source16The IPCC AR6 states that drought-affected areas have increased in most regions since 1950[15]
Verified17The IPCC AR6 indicates increasing risk of compound extremes (heat plus drought, heat plus flooding)[46]
Verified18The WMO State of the Global Climate 2023 reports that global marine heatwaves affected large areas of the ocean[11]
Verified19NOAA reports that the frequency of extreme rainfall events has increased in many regions, e.g., U.S. record-setting rainfall rates[47]
Directional20The IPCC AR6 reports that tropical cyclones are likely to become more intense with higher rainfall rates as the climate warms[15]
Single source21IPCC AR6 states that global tropical cyclone intensity has increased likely since 1970 due to warming[46]
Verified22NOAA reports that sea surface temperature records show ocean warming; for example, 2023 had record sea surface temperatures[8]
Verified23NOAA reports that the Atlantic hurricane season has included several Category 5 hurricanes in recent decades, consistent with warming trends[8]
Verified24The World Meteorological Organization reports that wildfires and smoke events have increased; heat and drought contribute[11]
Directional25WMO indicates record ocean temperatures contribute to increased intensity of marine heatwaves[11]
Single source26NOAA reports that Arctic amplification contributes to extreme weather; specific mechanism includes reduction in sea ice[48]
Verified27NASA reports that there is increased frequency and intensity of extreme rainfall in a warmer atmosphere because warmer air holds more moisture[49]
Verified28IPCC AR6 indicates that the probability of very heavy precipitation increases with global warming[46]
Verified29Carbon cycle: the fraction of CO2 emitted that remains in the atmosphere has been about 44% in recent decades (global)[50]
Directional30The remaining 56% of CO2 emissions are taken up by land and oceans combined; ocean uptake is a substantial part[50]
Single source31NOAA reports that CO2 is taken up by the ocean; about 25–30% of emissions are absorbed by ocean in recent years[51]
Verified32NOAA shows that global ocean carbon sink has increased over time[51]
Verified33IPCC AR6 indicates that ocean acidification is proceeding with a decline in aragonite saturation state in surface waters[20]
Verified34IPCC AR6 indicates that aragonite saturation state is projected to continue declining under all scenarios[52]
Directional35NOAA reports that Earth’s energy imbalance has increased; e.g., top-of-atmosphere imbalance is around +0.8 W/m2 in recent years (estimate)[53]
Single source36NASA reports energy imbalance is about 0.6–1.0 W/m2 for recent years (approx from satellite)[53]
Verified37WMO indicates that rainfall extremes have intensified; for example, in many regions, heavy precipitation has increased[11]
VerifiedOcean Heat, Carbon Cycle, and Extreme Events Interpretation
Since the 1970s the oceans have quietly swallowed most of the extra trapped heat and made Earth’s seas warmer, higher, and more acidic, while the same human fueled carbon pollution that drives CO2 into the atmosphere also turbocharges marine heatwaves, intensifies heavy rainfall and some storms, and even tips the odds toward compound extremes, all under a clearly rising energy imbalance that the planet can no longer hide.
Impacts, Ecosystems, and Socioeconomic Risk
1The IPCC AR6 states that future warming depends on cumulative CO2 emissions and non-CO2 forcing, but global temperature is expected to reach at least 1.5°C above preindustrial during 21st century unless deep reductions occur[15]
Verified2The IPCC AR6 indicates that with current pledges (as of 2020), global warming is likely to exceed 2.0°C by 2100[9]
Verified3Under SSP5-8.5, warming by 2100 is likely around 4.4°C (best estimate) relative to 1850–1900[15]
Verified4Under SSP1-2.6, warming by 2100 is likely around 1.0°C (best estimate)[15]
Directional5IPCC AR6 indicates that limiting warming to 1.5°C would reduce climate risks compared to 2°C[9]
Single source6IPCC AR6 indicates that many ecosystems are projected to be at high risk at 1.5°C and very high risk at 2°C[54]
Verified7IPCC AR6 indicates that 99% of coral reefs are projected to decline for 1.5°C warming and increase risk with higher warming[54]
Verified8IPCC AR6 indicates that at 1.5°C, sea level rise impacts will become more likely including saltwater intrusion[54]
Verified9IPCC AR6 indicates that global warming affects human health through heat stress, vector-borne diseases, and food insecurity[54]
Directional10IPCC AR6 indicates that heat-related mortality is already increasing in some regions and will increase further[54]
Single source11IPCC AR6 indicates that climate change contributes to increased risk of food insecurity[54]
Verified12IPCC AR6 indicates that drought and flooding risk will increase for many regions, affecting crops and fisheries[54]
Verified13IPCC AR6 indicates that risks to water supply increase in most dry subtropical regions[54]
Verified14IPCC AR6 indicates that climate hazards interact with vulnerability and exposure, and that risks increase with higher warming[9]
Directional15IPCC AR6 indicates that people with lower adaptive capacity are disproportionately affected[9]
Single source16IPCC AR6 indicates that climate change can exacerbate inequalities and can increase poverty risk[54]
Verified17The Lancet Countdown reports that global labor productivity losses from heat were equivalent to 265 billion labor hours in 2023 (estimate)[55]
Verified18The Lancet Countdown 2023 reports that climate change impacted health with increased heat exposure; e.g., more than 30 million additional people exposed to heat by 2022 compared with a 1.5°C pathway (indicator)[55]
Verified19Munich Re estimates annual global insured losses from natural catastrophes have increased significantly; for example, in 2023 insured losses were $93 billion (calendar year)[56]
Directional20Munich Re 2023 reports that 2023 was among the most expensive years globally for weather-related events, with insured losses totaling $110 billion (adjusted)[57]
Single source21World Bank estimates climate change could cause 10% drop in global GDP under high warming scenarios by 2050[58]
Verified22World Bank estimates global warming could push millions into poverty; e.g., 132 million people could fall into poverty by 2030 under a high emissions scenario (depending on study)[59]
Verified23OECD reports that climate change increases economic risks and that adaptation can reduce losses by billions[60]
Verified24FAO reports that in 2022 the number of people facing food insecurity reached about 258 million (headline)[61]
Directional25FAO notes that climate extremes are a key driver of food insecurity, including impacts from droughts and floods[61]
Single source26WHO reports that in 2018 an estimated 15 million people died due to environmental factors including air pollution and climate-related risks[62]
Verified27WHO states that heat is responsible for many deaths; extreme heat causes heatstroke and worsens cardiovascular disease[62]
Verified28IPCC AR6 indicates land heat extremes; e.g., projected additional warming increases risk of heat-related illness[15]
Verified29IPCC AR6 indicates that some regions will experience higher flood and drought risk simultaneously, increasing compound disaster risk[54]
Directional30IPCC AR6 indicates that biodiversity loss accelerates with higher temperatures; a larger fraction of species face increased extinction risk[54]
Single source31IPCC AR6 indicates that about 18% of terrestrial species assessed could face high risk of extinction by 2100 under 1.5°C warming (approx)[54]
Verified32IPCC AR6 indicates that under 2°C warming, about 29% of assessed species could face high risk of extinction (approx)[54]
Verified33IPCC AR6 indicates that marine ecosystems face increased bleaching risk at 1.5°C and higher at 2°C[54]
Verified34IPCC AR6 indicates that harmful algal blooms increase with warming and eutrophication[54]
Directional35IPCC AR6 indicates that climate change increases wildfire risk in many regions[54]
Single source36IPCC AR6 indicates that human-driven climate change has already increased fire weather in many regions[15]
Verified37IPCC AR6 indicates that urban areas face greater heat risk due to heat islands and vulnerability[54]
Verified38UNHCR reports that climate-related disasters displaced millions; e.g., in 2022, 32.6 million people were displaced by disasters globally (including weather-related)[63]
Verified39World Meteorological Organization reports that climate extremes cause substantial economic losses; in 2022 global disasters caused more than $200 billion (per WMO/EM-DAT summaries)[11]
Directional40IPCC AR6 indicates that net zero CO2 emissions and strong methane reductions would help limit warming, improving impacts and risks[9]
Single source41UNEP reports that closing the emissions gap requires rapid reductions; for example, the emissions gap in 2030 between current policies and 1.5°C pathways is about 14–18 GtCO2e[64]
Verified42UNEP Emissions Gap Report 2023 states that existing NDCs lead to projected warming of about 2.5–2.9°C[64]
Verified43UNEP Emissions Gap Report 2023 states that global emissions must peak before 2025 and fall 43% by 2030 for 1.5°C pathway (illustrative)[64]
Verified44IPCC AR6 indicates that adaptation limits become more likely at higher warming levels, increasing residual risk[9]
Directional45IPCC AR6 indicates that climate resilient development reduces risks[9]
Single sourceImpacts, Ecosystems, and Socioeconomic Risk Interpretation
Global Warming is already a numbers game where the IPCC says the temperature outcome is basically “how much CO2 you keep dumping,” so with today’s pledges we are likely headed past 2°C, to around 4.4°C under the high end scenario or only near 1°C if cuts get very deep, and either way the risks rise with every fraction of a degree, hitting coral reefs, heat and hunger, water and disasters, labor productivity, poverty, and biodiversity, while the only serious way to keep 1.5°C within reach is rapid emissions cuts now that meaningfully shrink the emissions gap and leave less to be managed by adaptation after the damage is done.
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- 44noaa.gov/media/resource-collections/ocean-acidification
- 45noaa.gov/education/resource-collections/ocean-coasts-climate/ocean-acidification
- 47noaa.gov/education/resource-collections/atmospheric-carbon-and-climate-change/extreme-rainfall
- 48noaa.gov/news/arctic-sea-ice-decline-and-extreme-weather
- 51noaa.gov/education/resource-collections/ocean-coasts-climate/ocean-carbon-cycle
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- 19esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends_n2o/
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- 25climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/ice-sheets/
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- 30climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/permafrost/
- 41climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/ocean-heat/
- 43climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/ocean-acidity/
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- 33gml.noaa.gov/webdata/ccgg/trends/co2/co2_annmean_mlo.txt
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- 35gml.noaa.gov/ccgg/trends_n2o/
- 37gml.noaa.gov/ccgg/trends/co2/
- 38gml.noaa.gov/webdata/ccgg/trends/co2/co2_mm_mlo.txt
- 39gml.noaa.gov/webdata/ccgg/trends/co2/co2_mm_spo.txt
- 40earthobservatory.nasa.gov/world-of-change/Decadal-Records?category=Atmosphere&item=Volcanoes
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- 60oecd.org/environment/climate-change-adaptation-costs/
- 61fao.org/newsroom/detail/fao-reports-on-the-state-of-food-security-and-nutrition-in-the-world-2023/en
- 62who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/climate-change-and-health
- 63unhcr.org/refugee-statistics/
- 64unep.org/resources/emissions-gap-report-2023