While the world produced a staggering 95 million tonnes of hydrogen in 2022, over 99% of it came from fossil fuels, revealing a massive gap between our current reality and the clean energy future hydrogen promises.
Key Takeaways
- Global hydrogen production reached 95 million tonnes (Mt) in 2022, with over 99% being fossil-based.
- In 2021, worldwide hydrogen output totaled 90 Mt, mainly from steam methane reforming (SMR).
- Annual global H2 production capacity exceeded 100 Mt by end of 2023 estimates.
- Steam methane reforming dominates with 75% of global H2 production share.
- Grey hydrogen from unabated natural gas SMR was 48 Mt in 2022.
- Blue hydrogen with CCS represented less than 0.1 Mt in current production.
- China produced 33 Mt of hydrogen in 2022, 35% of global total.
- Europe generated 11 Mt hydrogen in 2022, mostly grey from gas.
- United States output was 10 Mt in 2022, primarily for ammonia.
- Global H2 production grew 5% annually from 2015-2022 average.
- From 2000-2020, production doubled from 45 Mt to 90 Mt.
- Low-emission H2 share stagnant at <1% over past decade.
- Global hydrogen production projected to reach 180 Mt by 2030.
- Low-carbon H2 expected to hit 80 Mt by 2030 in Net Zero Scenario.
- Green hydrogen capacity to reach 560 GW electrolysis by 2030 (IRENA).
Global hydrogen production remains overwhelmingly fossil-fuel based, with minimal green output.
Economic Aspects
1Levelized cost of green H2 to fall 50% to $1.5/kg by 2030.
Verified2Grey H2 production cost averages $1.5-2.5/kg globally in 2023.
Verified3Blue H2 with CCS costs $2-3/kg currently, competitive in gas-rich areas.
Verified4Green H2 capex for PEM electrolysers at $800/kW in 2023.
Directional5OPEX for SMR plants around $0.5/kg H2 output.
Single source6Global H2 market value estimated at $130 billion in 2022.
Verified7Investment in clean H2 projects reached $10 billion in 2022.
Verified8Coal H2 production costs $1.8/kg in China vs $3/kg elsewhere.
Verified9Subsidy needs for green H2: $20-50/kg until 2030 in high-cost regions.
Directional10Green H2 LCOH $0.8-1.2/kg by 2030 in best sites.
Single source11Natural gas price impacts grey H2 cost by 60%.
Verified12CCS adds $0.5-1/kg to blue H2 costs.
Verified13Electrolyser stack costs fell 40% 2019-2023.
Verified14H2 storage costs $10-15/kg capacity underground.
Directional15Ammonia as H2 carrier adds $0.3/kg transport cost.
Single source16Global subsidies for clean H2 $50 billion planned 2023-2030.
Verified17H2 pipeline conversion costs $0.5-1M/km.
Verified18LCOH green H2 $2/kg average 2023 falling fast.
Verified19H2 trucking cost parity diesel by 2030 forecast.
Directional20Electrolyser manufacturing capacity 50 GW/year 2025.
Single source21H2 liquefaction energy penalty 30% of LHV.
VerifiedEconomic Aspects Interpretation
The green hydrogen revolution is hurtling towards cost parity, potentially halving its price by 2030 to challenge the entrenched, gas-dependent grey market, but it's a high-stakes global poker game where subsidies, geography, and breakthrough tech will decide if we merely decarbonize fossil hydrogen or replace it altogether.
Feedstocks and Methods
1Steam methane reforming dominates with 75% of global H2 production share.
Verified2Grey hydrogen from unabated natural gas SMR was 48 Mt in 2022.
Verified3Blue hydrogen with CCS represented less than 0.1 Mt in current production.
Verified4Green hydrogen via electrolysis was 0.1% of total output in 2023.
Directional5Coal gasification for hydrogen yielded 31% of global production in Asia.
Single source6Oil refinery byproduct hydrogen contributes 4-5 Mt per year worldwide.
Verified7Autothermal reforming (ATR) used in 10% of natural gas-based H2 plants.
Verified8Methane pyrolysis emerging method produced negligible volumes commercially.
Verified9Biomass gasification for H2 is piloted at 0.01 Mt scale globally.
Directional10Nuclear-assisted electrolysis potential but current share zero.
Single source11Partial oxidation method used in 5% of H2 plants worldwide.
Verified12Water electrolysis efficiency 60-80% for PEM and alkaline.
Verified13SMR hydrogen purity 99.99% post pressure swing adsorption.
Verified14Biomass-derived H2 costs $3-5/kg in demos.
Directional15Coal H2 via integrated gasification combined cycle (IGCC).
Single source16Pink hydrogen from nuclear heat projected for future.
Verified17SMR with pre-combustion CCS demo scale 0.1 Mt.
Verified18Alkaline electrolysis 60% market share of electrolysers.
Verified19Solid oxide electrolysis efficiency >80% lab results.
Directional20Gasification H2/CO ratio adjusted via water-gas shift.
Single source21Photoelectrochemical H2 research stage, zero commercial.
Verified22Fermentation biohydrogen pilots <1 kg/day.
VerifiedFeedstocks and Methods Interpretation
The hydrogen industry currently has the environmental ambition of a lazy Sunday, with over 95% of production still coming from fossil fuels, while cleaner alternatives are stuck on the drawing board with barely a cameo appearance.
Geographical Distribution
1China produced 33 Mt of hydrogen in 2022, 35% of global total.
Verified2Europe generated 11 Mt hydrogen in 2022, mostly grey from gas.
Verified3United States output was 10 Mt in 2022, primarily for ammonia.
Verified4Middle East countries produced 8 Mt, leveraging cheap natural gas.
Directional5India hydrogen production at 6 Mt annually from coal and gas.
Single source6Japan imports most but produces 2 Mt domestically for refining.
Verified7Russia output 5 Mt, focused on export potential via pipelines.
Verified8Australia emerging with 0.5 Mt but plans for green H2 exports.
Verified9South Korea produced 1.5 Mt for steel and chemicals.
Directional10Africa total under 1 Mt, potential in North Africa for exports.
Single source11Turkey H2 output 0.8 Mt, Germany 2.5 Mt in 2022.
Verified12Saudi Arabia plans 1 Mt blue H2 by 2026.
Verified13Brazil byproduct H2 from ethanol at 0.2 Mt.
Verified14Canada produced 3 Mt, eyeing exports.
Directional15Ukraine pre-war H2 output 0.5 Mt from coke oven gas.
Single source16Egypt targeting 1.5 Mt green H2 exports by 2030.
Verified17Indonesia coal H2 at 0.3 Mt annually.
Verified18Netherlands H2 production 0.9 Mt in 2022.
Verified19UAE blue H2 ambitions 1 Mt by 2031.
Directional20Chile green H2 potential 25 GW solar for exports.
Single source21Norway H2 from hydropower electrolysis growing.
Verified22Poland coal H2 transitioning slowly 1 Mt.
Verified23Morocco H2 strategy for 4 GW electrolysis by 2030.
VerifiedGeographical Distribution Interpretation
The current global hydrogen landscape is a bewildering mix of carbon-heavy present realities and earnest green promises, where China industrially dominates, the West strategically plans, and the sun-drenched Global South eyes a future of shipping sunshine in pipelines.
Historical Trends
1Global H2 production grew 5% annually from 2015-2022 average.
Verified2From 2000-2020, production doubled from 45 Mt to 90 Mt.
Verified3Low-emission H2 share stagnant at <1% over past decade.
Verified4China H2 output increased 300% from 2010-2022.
Directional5European production flat at 10-11 Mt since 2015.
Single source6US H2 production rose 20% from 2018-2022 due to shale gas.
Verified7Coal-based H2 declined 10% in OECD countries 2010-2020.
Verified8Byproduct H2 from industry grew 15% in Asia 2005-2020.
Verified9Global capacity additions averaged 2 Mt/year pre-2020.
Directional10Electrolysis capacity tripled from 2015-2023 to 15 GW.
Single source11Global H2 production up 2.6% in 2020 despite COVID.
Verified12From 1990-2010, H2 demand grew 50% to 60 Mt.
Verified13Electrolysis capacity grew from 1 GW in 2010 to 10 GW 2020.
Verified14Middle East H2 production doubled 2005-2015.
Directional15Japan H2 imports started 2010s for fuel cells.
Single source16EU electrolysis pilots from 2015 onward scaled up.
Verified17Global H2 price index rose 20% 2021-2022.
Verified18Green H2 projects announced tripled 2021-2023.
Verified192010-2020 H2 growth rate 3.5% CAGR globally.
Directional20US fracking boosted H2 50% 2008-2018.
Single source21EU H2 strategy post-2020 accelerated projects.
Verified22Asia 70% of coal H2 historical dominance.
Verified23H2 spot prices Europe $5-10/kg 2022 peak.
Verified24Capacity utilization H2 plants 80-90% average.
DirectionalHistorical Trends Interpretation
Despite soaring ambitions and a feverish sprint for green hydrogen, the cold reality is that the world’s ballooning production remains overwhelmingly dirty, making our clean energy future feel like a distant mirage fueled by yesterday's pollution.
Production Volumes
1Global hydrogen production reached 95 million tonnes (Mt) in 2022, with over 99% being fossil-based.
Verified2In 2021, worldwide hydrogen output totaled 90 Mt, mainly from steam methane reforming (SMR).
Verified3Annual global H2 production capacity exceeded 100 Mt by end of 2023 estimates.
Verified4Low-carbon hydrogen production was only 0.7 Mt in 2022, less than 1% of total.
Directional5Global dedicated hydrogen production plants number around 1,700 worldwide.
Single source6Hydrogen production from coal reached 37 Mt in 2022, mostly in China.
Verified7Natural gas-based hydrogen production accounted for 58 Mt in 2022.
Verified8Total global hydrogen demand matched production at 97 Mt in 2023 preliminary data.
Verified9Byproduct hydrogen from chlor-alkali processes contributed 10 Mt annually.
Directional10Electrolytic hydrogen production stood at 0.5 Mt in 2022 globally.
Single source11Global H2 production from natural gas SMR was 76 Mt in 2021.
Verified12Total H2 capacity announced globally exceeds 400 Mt by 2030.
Verified13Byproduct H2 from ethylene production adds 3 Mt/year.
Verified14Operational electrolysis capacity was 12 GW at end-2022.
Directional15Hydrogen from methanol reforming negligible at <0.1 Mt.
Single source16Global H2 output per capita averages 12 kg/person annually.
Verified17Gas-based H2 with CCS pilots produced 0.02 Mt in 2022.
Verified18Turkey produced 0.8 Mt H2 in 2022 for industry.
Verified192023 global H2 production estimated at 97 Mt.
Directional20Dedicated H2 plants consume 6% of global natural gas.
Single source21Chlorine industry byproducts 70% of electrolytic H2.
Verified22Pipeline H2 capacity worldwide 5,000 km operational.
Verified23Refinery H2 demand/production balance at 30 Mt.
Verified24Global H2 from coke oven gas 5 Mt mainly China.
DirectionalProduction Volumes Interpretation
We’ve built an entire hydrogen economy with remarkable scale and precision, yet it remains overwhelmingly a fossil fuel party with a tiny, awkward green hydrogen corner where we’re still figuring out how to turn on the lights.
Projections and Targets
1Global hydrogen production projected to reach 180 Mt by 2030.
Verified2Low-carbon H2 expected to hit 80 Mt by 2030 in Net Zero Scenario.
Verified3Green hydrogen capacity to reach 560 GW electrolysis by 2030 (IRENA).
Verified4Blue hydrogen production forecasted at 36 Mt by 2030.
Directional5EU targets 10 Mt domestic green H2 and 10 Mt imports by 2030.
Single source6US aims for 10 Mt clean H2 by 2030 via IRA incentives.
Verified7China plans 200,000 tonnes green H2 by 2025, scaling to Mt by 2030.
Verified8Global H2 demand projected to grow 6-fold to 600 Mt by 2050.
Verified9Electrolysers deployment to 700 GW globally by 2050.
Directional1080 Mt clean H2 supply needed by 2030 for 1.5C path.
Single source11Hydrogen to cover 10% of energy needs by 2050.
Verified12Australia 15 Mt H2 exports targeted by 2030.
Verified13India 5 Mt green H2 by 2030 national plan.
Verified14Japan 3 Mt H2 supply by 2030, mostly imported.
Directional15Africa H2 production to 25 Mt by 2050 potential.
Single source16Global electrolysis cost to $200/kW by 2050.
Verified17H2 trade value $100 billion/year by 2030 forecast.
Verified18500 Mt H2 demand by 2050 in IEA Stated Policies.
Verified19Korea 5 Mt H2 economy by 2030 plan.
Directional20Russia 2 Mt low-carbon H2 exports by 2024.
Single source21Saudi 4 Mt H2 by 2035 NEOM project.
Verified22UK 10 GW electrolysis domestic by 2030.
VerifiedProjections and Targets Interpretation
While the global appetite for hydrogen is growing faster than a politician's promise, the race is actually on to see if our clean production can keep up with—and hopefully overtake—our still-greasy ambition.
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