Key Takeaways
- Global hydrogen production reached 95 million tonnes (Mt) in 2022, with over 99% being fossil-based.
- In 2021, worldwide hydrogen output totaled 90 Mt, mainly from steam methane reforming (SMR).
- Annual global H2 production capacity exceeded 100 Mt by end of 2023 estimates.
- Steam methane reforming dominates with 75% of global H2 production share.
- Grey hydrogen from unabated natural gas SMR was 48 Mt in 2022.
- Blue hydrogen with CCS represented less than 0.1 Mt in current production.
- China produced 33 Mt of hydrogen in 2022, 35% of global total.
- Europe generated 11 Mt hydrogen in 2022, mostly grey from gas.
- United States output was 10 Mt in 2022, primarily for ammonia.
- Global H2 production grew 5% annually from 2015-2022 average.
- From 2000-2020, production doubled from 45 Mt to 90 Mt.
- Low-emission H2 share stagnant at <1% over past decade.
- Global hydrogen production projected to reach 180 Mt by 2030.
- Low-carbon H2 expected to hit 80 Mt by 2030 in Net Zero Scenario.
- Green hydrogen capacity to reach 560 GW electrolysis by 2030 (IRENA).
Global hydrogen production remains overwhelmingly fossil-fuel based, with minimal green output.
Economic Aspects
- Levelized cost of green H2 to fall 50% to $1.5/kg by 2030.
- Grey H2 production cost averages $1.5-2.5/kg globally in 2023.
- Blue H2 with CCS costs $2-3/kg currently, competitive in gas-rich areas.
- Green H2 capex for PEM electrolysers at $800/kW in 2023.
- OPEX for SMR plants around $0.5/kg H2 output.
- Global H2 market value estimated at $130 billion in 2022.
- Investment in clean H2 projects reached $10 billion in 2022.
- Coal H2 production costs $1.8/kg in China vs $3/kg elsewhere.
- Subsidy needs for green H2: $20-50/kg until 2030 in high-cost regions.
- Green H2 LCOH $0.8-1.2/kg by 2030 in best sites.
- Natural gas price impacts grey H2 cost by 60%.
- CCS adds $0.5-1/kg to blue H2 costs.
- Electrolyser stack costs fell 40% 2019-2023.
- H2 storage costs $10-15/kg capacity underground.
- Ammonia as H2 carrier adds $0.3/kg transport cost.
- Global subsidies for clean H2 $50 billion planned 2023-2030.
- H2 pipeline conversion costs $0.5-1M/km.
- LCOH green H2 $2/kg average 2023 falling fast.
- H2 trucking cost parity diesel by 2030 forecast.
- Electrolyser manufacturing capacity 50 GW/year 2025.
- H2 liquefaction energy penalty 30% of LHV.
Economic Aspects Interpretation
Feedstocks and Methods
- Steam methane reforming dominates with 75% of global H2 production share.
- Grey hydrogen from unabated natural gas SMR was 48 Mt in 2022.
- Blue hydrogen with CCS represented less than 0.1 Mt in current production.
- Green hydrogen via electrolysis was 0.1% of total output in 2023.
- Coal gasification for hydrogen yielded 31% of global production in Asia.
- Oil refinery byproduct hydrogen contributes 4-5 Mt per year worldwide.
- Autothermal reforming (ATR) used in 10% of natural gas-based H2 plants.
- Methane pyrolysis emerging method produced negligible volumes commercially.
- Biomass gasification for H2 is piloted at 0.01 Mt scale globally.
- Nuclear-assisted electrolysis potential but current share zero.
- Partial oxidation method used in 5% of H2 plants worldwide.
- Water electrolysis efficiency 60-80% for PEM and alkaline.
- SMR hydrogen purity 99.99% post pressure swing adsorption.
- Biomass-derived H2 costs $3-5/kg in demos.
- Coal H2 via integrated gasification combined cycle (IGCC).
- Pink hydrogen from nuclear heat projected for future.
- SMR with pre-combustion CCS demo scale 0.1 Mt.
- Alkaline electrolysis 60% market share of electrolysers.
- Solid oxide electrolysis efficiency >80% lab results.
- Gasification H2/CO ratio adjusted via water-gas shift.
- Photoelectrochemical H2 research stage, zero commercial.
- Fermentation biohydrogen pilots <1 kg/day.
Feedstocks and Methods Interpretation
Geographical Distribution
- China produced 33 Mt of hydrogen in 2022, 35% of global total.
- Europe generated 11 Mt hydrogen in 2022, mostly grey from gas.
- United States output was 10 Mt in 2022, primarily for ammonia.
- Middle East countries produced 8 Mt, leveraging cheap natural gas.
- India hydrogen production at 6 Mt annually from coal and gas.
- Japan imports most but produces 2 Mt domestically for refining.
- Russia output 5 Mt, focused on export potential via pipelines.
- Australia emerging with 0.5 Mt but plans for green H2 exports.
- South Korea produced 1.5 Mt for steel and chemicals.
- Africa total under 1 Mt, potential in North Africa for exports.
- Turkey H2 output 0.8 Mt, Germany 2.5 Mt in 2022.
- Saudi Arabia plans 1 Mt blue H2 by 2026.
- Brazil byproduct H2 from ethanol at 0.2 Mt.
- Canada produced 3 Mt, eyeing exports.
- Ukraine pre-war H2 output 0.5 Mt from coke oven gas.
- Egypt targeting 1.5 Mt green H2 exports by 2030.
- Indonesia coal H2 at 0.3 Mt annually.
- Netherlands H2 production 0.9 Mt in 2022.
- UAE blue H2 ambitions 1 Mt by 2031.
- Chile green H2 potential 25 GW solar for exports.
- Norway H2 from hydropower electrolysis growing.
- Poland coal H2 transitioning slowly 1 Mt.
- Morocco H2 strategy for 4 GW electrolysis by 2030.
Geographical Distribution Interpretation
Historical Trends
- Global H2 production grew 5% annually from 2015-2022 average.
- From 2000-2020, production doubled from 45 Mt to 90 Mt.
- Low-emission H2 share stagnant at <1% over past decade.
- China H2 output increased 300% from 2010-2022.
- European production flat at 10-11 Mt since 2015.
- US H2 production rose 20% from 2018-2022 due to shale gas.
- Coal-based H2 declined 10% in OECD countries 2010-2020.
- Byproduct H2 from industry grew 15% in Asia 2005-2020.
- Global capacity additions averaged 2 Mt/year pre-2020.
- Electrolysis capacity tripled from 2015-2023 to 15 GW.
- Global H2 production up 2.6% in 2020 despite COVID.
- From 1990-2010, H2 demand grew 50% to 60 Mt.
- Electrolysis capacity grew from 1 GW in 2010 to 10 GW 2020.
- Middle East H2 production doubled 2005-2015.
- Japan H2 imports started 2010s for fuel cells.
- EU electrolysis pilots from 2015 onward scaled up.
- Global H2 price index rose 20% 2021-2022.
- Green H2 projects announced tripled 2021-2023.
- 2010-2020 H2 growth rate 3.5% CAGR globally.
- US fracking boosted H2 50% 2008-2018.
- EU H2 strategy post-2020 accelerated projects.
- Asia 70% of coal H2 historical dominance.
- H2 spot prices Europe $5-10/kg 2022 peak.
- Capacity utilization H2 plants 80-90% average.
Historical Trends Interpretation
Production Volumes
- Global hydrogen production reached 95 million tonnes (Mt) in 2022, with over 99% being fossil-based.
- In 2021, worldwide hydrogen output totaled 90 Mt, mainly from steam methane reforming (SMR).
- Annual global H2 production capacity exceeded 100 Mt by end of 2023 estimates.
- Low-carbon hydrogen production was only 0.7 Mt in 2022, less than 1% of total.
- Global dedicated hydrogen production plants number around 1,700 worldwide.
- Hydrogen production from coal reached 37 Mt in 2022, mostly in China.
- Natural gas-based hydrogen production accounted for 58 Mt in 2022.
- Total global hydrogen demand matched production at 97 Mt in 2023 preliminary data.
- Byproduct hydrogen from chlor-alkali processes contributed 10 Mt annually.
- Electrolytic hydrogen production stood at 0.5 Mt in 2022 globally.
- Global H2 production from natural gas SMR was 76 Mt in 2021.
- Total H2 capacity announced globally exceeds 400 Mt by 2030.
- Byproduct H2 from ethylene production adds 3 Mt/year.
- Operational electrolysis capacity was 12 GW at end-2022.
- Hydrogen from methanol reforming negligible at <0.1 Mt.
- Global H2 output per capita averages 12 kg/person annually.
- Gas-based H2 with CCS pilots produced 0.02 Mt in 2022.
- Turkey produced 0.8 Mt H2 in 2022 for industry.
- 2023 global H2 production estimated at 97 Mt.
- Dedicated H2 plants consume 6% of global natural gas.
- Chlorine industry byproducts 70% of electrolytic H2.
- Pipeline H2 capacity worldwide 5,000 km operational.
- Refinery H2 demand/production balance at 30 Mt.
- Global H2 from coke oven gas 5 Mt mainly China.
Production Volumes Interpretation
Projections and Targets
- Global hydrogen production projected to reach 180 Mt by 2030.
- Low-carbon H2 expected to hit 80 Mt by 2030 in Net Zero Scenario.
- Green hydrogen capacity to reach 560 GW electrolysis by 2030 (IRENA).
- Blue hydrogen production forecasted at 36 Mt by 2030.
- EU targets 10 Mt domestic green H2 and 10 Mt imports by 2030.
- US aims for 10 Mt clean H2 by 2030 via IRA incentives.
- China plans 200,000 tonnes green H2 by 2025, scaling to Mt by 2030.
- Global H2 demand projected to grow 6-fold to 600 Mt by 2050.
- Electrolysers deployment to 700 GW globally by 2050.
- 80 Mt clean H2 supply needed by 2030 for 1.5C path.
- Hydrogen to cover 10% of energy needs by 2050.
- Australia 15 Mt H2 exports targeted by 2030.
- India 5 Mt green H2 by 2030 national plan.
- Japan 3 Mt H2 supply by 2030, mostly imported.
- Africa H2 production to 25 Mt by 2050 potential.
- Global electrolysis cost to $200/kW by 2050.
- H2 trade value $100 billion/year by 2030 forecast.
- 500 Mt H2 demand by 2050 in IEA Stated Policies.
- Korea 5 Mt H2 economy by 2030 plan.
- Russia 2 Mt low-carbon H2 exports by 2024.
- Saudi 4 Mt H2 by 2035 NEOM project.
- UK 10 GW electrolysis domestic by 2030.
Projections and Targets Interpretation
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