While the world runs on over 100 million barrels of refined products daily, a closer look reveals a downstream industry in dramatic flux, as a 47-million-barrel-per-day behemoth in Asia surges, historic refineries in Europe close, and a global patchwork of regional giants from Texas to Jamnagar race to meet shifting demands.
Key Takeaways
- In 2023, global downstream refining capacity stood at 103.2 million barrels per day (bpd), with Asia-Pacific region holding 47.1 million bpd or 45.6% of the total
- US refining capacity in 2022 was 18.38 million bpd, operating at 89% utilization rate during Q4, producing 16.4 million bpd of refined products
- China's refining throughput reached 14.8 million bpd in 2023, up 8.2% from 2022, driven by independent refiners in Shandong province
- In 2023, global gasoline production from refineries totaled 26.5 million bpd, with US output at 9.8 million bpd leading OECD
- Diesel and gasoil output worldwide reached 32.1 million bpd in 2023, Asia consuming 55% of total
- US jet fuel production averaged 1.6 million bpd in 2023, recovering 85% from pre-COVID levels
- In 2023, global gasoline demand reached 26.1 million bpd, up 2.5% YoY led by Asia
- US motor gasoline consumption averaged 8.9 million bpd in 2023, down 1% from 2022
- China's diesel demand fell 5% to 4.2 million bpd in 2023 due to EV shift
- In 2023, global petroleum product trade volume was 2.1 billion tons, clean products 70%
- US gasoline retail sales reached 135 billion gallons in 2023, average price $3.52/gal
- China's downstream retail network expanded to 150,000 stations in 2023, Sinopec 30% market share
- In 2023, global refinery CO2 emissions totaled 1.2 billion tons, 7% of energy sector
- US refineries emitted 180 million mt CO2 in 2023, Gulf Coast 65% share
- Europe's refineries reduced SOx emissions 90% since 2005 to 0.5 million tons in 2023 via desulfurization
Asia leads global refining expansion while Europe declines and demand shifts.
Economic Financial
- In 2023, global downstream revenue reached $2.1 trillion, refining margins $12/bbl average
- ExxonMobil downstream earnings $8.6 billion in 2023, up 150% YoY on cracks
- US refining EBITDA averaged $15/bbl in 2023, PADD 3 highest at $18/bbl
- TotalEnergies marketing & refining profit €19 billion in 2023, retail strong
- Global downstream capex $120 billion in 2023, 40% maintenance 30% petrochemicals
- Reliance Industries refining EBITDA ₹1.2 lakh crore in FY2023, Jamnagar key
- Chevron downstream earnings $7.1 billion in 2023, gasoline cracks $0.25/gal
- BP fuels & lubes profit $17.4 billion in 2023, trading $3.8 billion
- Global 3-2-1 crack spread averaged $28/bbl in 2023, diesel premium $15/bbl
- Shell downstream earnings $19 billion in 2023, marketing $2.4 billion
- Phillips 66 refining profit $4.2 billion in 2023, utilization 92%
- Saudi Aramco downstream revenue SAR 400 billion in 2023, margins 25%
- Valero Energy downstream EBITDA $10.5 billion in 2023, renewable diesel boost
- Global retail fuel margins averaged 15 cents/gal in 2023 OECD countries
- Marathon Petroleum refining income $12.3 billion in 2023
- PetroChina refining profit CNY 85 billion in 2023, throughput record
- Global downstream ROCE 18% in 2023 top quartile
- Sinopec sales revenue CNY 3.2 trillion in 2023, refining 40%
- US independent refiner debt/EBITDA 1.2x average 2023
- Global trading profits $50 billion in 2023 downstream majors
- Indian Oil Corp refining EBITDA ₹45,000 crore FY2023
- Europe's downstream losses narrowed to €5 billion in 2023 from €30 billion 2022
Economic Financial Interpretation
The global downstream industry, having weathered a storm of losses, emerged in 2023 as a cash-generating colossus, where refining margins fattened on the back of a diesel-driven crack spread, retail proved resilient, and even Europe managed to staunch its bleeding, all while the sector collectively banked over two trillion dollars and reminded everyone that turning crude into cash is still a spectacularly profitable business when the stars align.
Environmental Regulatory
- In 2023, global refinery CO2 emissions totaled 1.2 billion tons, 7% of energy sector
- US refineries emitted 180 million mt CO2 in 2023, Gulf Coast 65% share
- Europe's refineries reduced SOx emissions 90% since 2005 to 0.5 million tons in 2023 via desulfurization
- Global refinery water usage averaged 0.4 barrels per barrel crude processed in 2023
- China refineries installed 2.5 GW carbon capture capacity by 2023, capturing 1 mt CO2
- US hydrocracker NOx emissions regulated below 20 ppm under NSPS 2020, 95% compliance in 2023
- Global ultra-low sulfur diesel (10 ppm) penetration reached 85% in 2023 IMO compliant
- India's refineries achieved 95% BS-VI compliance by 2023, sulfur <10 ppm
- Saudi refineries flared 0.5% of throughput in 2023, zero routine flaring goal by 2030
- Global refinery wastewater treatment recovery rate 92% in 2023 advanced facilities
- EU ETS covered 90% refinery emissions in 2023, carbon price €85/ton
- US benzene emissions from refineries down 70% to 1,200 tons in 2023
- Brazil biofuels blending mandate reached 15% B15 diesel in 2023
- Global refinery particulate matter emissions reduced 40% since 2015 to 2023
- Japan's refineries VOC emissions below 50 tons/site in 2023 under PRTR law
- California's CARB low-carbon fuel standard scored refineries average 10 gCO2e/MJ gasoline 2023
- Global CCUS projects in downstream captured 45 mt CO2 in 2023, Quest leading
- Singapore refineries zero liquid discharge achieved by 2023, 100% water recycle
- Russia's refineries Euro-5 compliance 98% in 2023, sulfur <10 ppm
- Global marine fuel sulfur cap 0.5% achieved 99% compliance 2023
- Australia's refineries biodiesel blend 6% B6 in 2023
- Iran's flare gas recovery 85% in major refineries 2023
- EU renewable diesel production hit 5 million tons in 2023, HVO dominant
- Global refinery energy intensity improved to 85 kreBtu/bbl in 2023 best performers
Environmental Regulatory Interpretation
While we've made commendable progress in cleaning up our act with cleaner fuels and better filters—achieving cleaner air, water, and even flaring less—the colossal 1.2 billion ton carbon elephant in the room reminds us that for every two steps forward on pollution, we're still dragging a massive carbon footprint behind us.
Market Sales
- In 2023, global petroleum product trade volume was 2.1 billion tons, clean products 70%
- US gasoline retail sales reached 135 billion gallons in 2023, average price $3.52/gal
- China's downstream retail network expanded to 150,000 stations in 2023, Sinopec 30% market share
- Europe wholesale diesel crack spread averaged €25/ton in 2023
- Global bunker fuel sales hit 210 million tons in 2023, VLSFO 85% share
- India's retail fuel sales grew 8% to 223 million tons in FY2023
- Saudi Aramco retail fuel margins improved 15% in 2023, 8,000 stations
- US convenience store fuel sales $450 billion in 2023, 80% gasoline
- Global aviation fuel sales $120 billion in 2023, jet cracks $30/bbl average
- Brazil gasoline retail price averaged R$5.50/liter in 2023, Petrobras market share 60%
- Russia's fuel retail sales stable, average gasoline price 55 RUB/liter in 2023
- Global LPG retail market valued at $80 billion in 2023, autogas 45%
- Japan average gasoline retail price ¥170/liter in 2023, ENEOS 50% share
- Europe's retail diesel sales down 5% to 250 million tons in 2023
- Singapore gasoline retail sales 3.2 billion liters in 2023, price $2.50/liter
- US diesel retail average $4.20/gal in 2023, truck stops 40% volume
- China's aviation kerosene sales up 25% to 40 million tons in 2023
- Global petrochemicals sales from downstream $500 billion in 2023
- Australia fuel retail sales $40 billion AUD in 2023, imports 90%
- Iran's subsidized gasoline sales 80 million liters/day in 2023, price 3,000 IRR/liter
- Global marine fuel sales prices averaged $650/mt VLSFO in 2023
- Mexico Pemex retail stations 13,000 in 2023, 55% market share gasoline
Market Sales Interpretation
While the global petroleum machine whirs on, trading over two billion tons and charging drivers from Texas to Tokyo a small fortune, the real profit isn't in the crude but in the cleverly captured customer at the pump, the airport, and the dock.
Product Demand
- In 2023, global gasoline demand reached 26.1 million bpd, up 2.5% YoY led by Asia
- US motor gasoline consumption averaged 8.9 million bpd in 2023, down 1% from 2022
- China's diesel demand fell 5% to 4.2 million bpd in 2023 due to EV shift
- Europe road diesel demand declined to 11.2 million bpd in 2023, biofuels blending at 8%
- Global jet fuel demand rebounded to 7.8 million bpd in 2023, 92% of 2019 levels
- India's total petroleum product consumption hit 5.3 million bpd in FY2023, diesel 60%
- Middle East gasoline demand grew 4% to 3.1 million bpd in 2023
- Brazil diesel demand reached 2.1 million bpd in 2023, up 3% with biodiesel B15 mandate
- Global LPG demand increased to 12.8 million bpd in 2023, petrochemicals 40%
- US distillate demand averaged 4.0 million bpd in 2023, heating oil down 10%
- Russia's domestic gasoline consumption stable at 1.0 million bpd in 2023
- Global fuel oil demand dropped to 6.2 million bpd in 2023, marine bunkers 65%
- Japan gasoline demand fell 4.5% to 2.2 million bpd in 2023 amid efficiency gains
- Europe's aviation fuel demand up 15% to 2.1 million bpd in 2023
- Global petrochemical demand drove 20 million bpd oil equivalent in 2023
- Singapore fuel oil imports for bunkering hit 50 million tons in 2023
- US propane demand reached 2.5 million bpd in 2023, exports to Asia key
- China's LPG demand surged 12% to 1.8 million bpd in 2023
- Global asphalt demand grew to 4.5 million bpd in 2023, infrastructure boom
- Iran's diesel consumption averaged 80 million liters/day in 2023
- Australia petrol demand stable at 13 million liters/day in 2023
- Global middle distillate demand peaked at 35 million bpd in 2023
- Mexico gasoline demand at 0.8 million bpd in 2023, imports covering 60%
Product Demand Interpretation
While global thirst for gasoline persists, the petroleum story is fracturing into regional vignettes of decline, resilience, and transformation, where the roar of Asian growth contends with the quiet hum of efficiency and the silent march of electrification.
Product Output
- In 2023, global gasoline production from refineries totaled 26.5 million bpd, with US output at 9.8 million bpd leading OECD
- Diesel and gasoil output worldwide reached 32.1 million bpd in 2023, Asia consuming 55% of total
- US jet fuel production averaged 1.6 million bpd in 2023, recovering 85% from pre-COVID levels
- China's clean product output hit 13.2 million bpd in 2023, gasoline up 7%
- Europe produced 12.4 million bpd of middle distillates in 2023, down 2% due to capacity rationalization
- Global petrochemical feedstock output from refineries was 18.7 million bpd in 2023, naphtha dominant at 60%
- India's diesel production reached 1.9 million bpd in FY2023, 82% of total output
- Saudi Arabia's gasoline output grew to 1.1 million bpd in 2023, supported by SATORP expansion
- Global fuel oil production declined to 6.8 million bpd in 2023, IMO 2020 effects persisting
- US propane/propylene output from refineries averaged 1.2 million bpd in 2023
- Russia's refined product exports hit 5.2 million bpd in 2023, diesel 2.1 million bpd despite sanctions
- Global asphalt production was 4.3 million bpd in 2023, North America 1.2 million bpd
- Middle East gasoline demand met by 4.5 million bpd local production in 2023
- Brazil's gasoline output increased 15% to 1.1 million bpd in 2023 post-refinery upgrades
- Europe's jet/kerosene production at 1.9 million bpd in 2023, up 12% YoY
- Global LPG production from refineries reached 11.5 million bpd in 2023, US exporting 4.2 million bpd
- Japan's diesel output stable at 2.1 million bpd in 2023 despite capacity cuts
- Global light ends yield averaged 28% of crude input in 2023 complex refineries
- Singapore clean product exports totaled 22 million mt in 2023, gasoline 45%
- US distillate fuel oil production hit 4.9 million bpd record in Nov 2023
- China's jet fuel output grew 22% to 0.9 million bpd in 2023
- Global bitumen output up 3% to 105 million tons in 2023
- Iran's gasoline production averaged 102 million liters/day in 2023
- Australia's import-dependent gasoline supply averaged 12 million liters/day in 2023 post-refinery closures
- Global middle distillate yields peaked at 42% in modern refineries 2023
- Mexico produced 0.4 million bpd gasoline in 2023, 70% from new Dos Bocas
Product Output Interpretation
Our global addiction to cars and planes is proving remarkably durable, as refineries churn out rivers of gasoline and jet fuel, while Asia guzzles diesel and the US transforms into a liquefied gas giant—all while the world awkwardly shuffles away from the dregs of dirty fuel oil.
Refining Capacity
- In 2023, global downstream refining capacity stood at 103.2 million barrels per day (bpd), with Asia-Pacific region holding 47.1 million bpd or 45.6% of the total
- US refining capacity in 2022 was 18.38 million bpd, operating at 89% utilization rate during Q4, producing 16.4 million bpd of refined products
- China's refining throughput reached 14.8 million bpd in 2023, up 8.2% from 2022, driven by independent refiners in Shandong province
- Europe's refining capacity declined to 15.9 million bpd by end-2023, with closures like Shell's 220,000 bpd Rotterdam refinery contributing
- India's refining capacity expanded to 5.5 million bpd in 2023, with Reliance Jamnagar complex at 1.24 million bpd being the world's largest single-site refinery
- Middle East refining capacity grew to 9.8 million bpd in 2023, Saudi Arabia leading with 3.4 million bpd including new Jubail projects
- Russia's primary distillation capacity was 5.7 million bpd in 2023, impacted by sanctions reducing complexity index to 5.8
- Global complex refinery projects under construction totaled 4.2 million bpd as of 2024, mainly in Asia with Nelson Complexity Index above 10
- US Gulf Coast PADD 3 refining capacity hit 9.7 million bpd in 2022, with 92% utilization yielding high diesel output
- South Korea's refining capacity remained at 3.1 million bpd in 2023, GS Caltex Ulsan at 840,000 bpd leading with advanced hydrocracking
- Brazil's refining capacity increased to 2.4 million bpd in 2023 post-Comperj startup at 165,000 bpd
- Global vacuum distillation capacity reached 52 million bpd in 2023, essential for heavy oil processing
- Singapore's refining throughput averaged 1.4 million bpd in 2023, hub for clean product exports
- Mexico's refining capacity utilization was 42% in 2023, with Dos Bocas at 340,000 bpd partially operational
- Australia's refining capacity dropped to 1.1 million bpd after BP Kwinana closure
- Iran's refining capacity exceeded 2.2 million bpd in 2023 despite sanctions, with Persian Gulf Star at 360,000 bpd
- Vietnam's Nghi Son refinery operated at 200,000 bpd in 2023, 83% utilization post-debt restructuring
- Global coking capacity stood at 8.5 million bpd in 2023, US leading with 30% share
- Japan's refining capacity contracted to 3.5 million bpd in 2023, with Idemitsu's Hokkaido closure
- UAE's Ruwais refinery expanded to 860,000 bpd in 2023, highest Nelson Complexity of 12.5
- Nigeria's Dangote refinery started at 650,000 bpd in 2024, boosting capacity to 710,000 bpd total
- Canada's refining capacity was 1.9 million bpd in 2023, Irving upgrader at 320,000 bpd key for dilbit
- Global hydrocracking capacity grew to 12.4 million bpd in 2023, Asia adding 1.2 million bpd
- Thailand's refining capacity at 1.3 million bpd in 2023, Sriracha complex at 175,000 bpd modernized
- Venezuela's Paraguaná refining complex nameplate 940,000 bpd but averaged 200,000 bpd in 2023
- Global FCC capacity was 7.9 million bpd in 2023, US with 2.8 million bpd dominant
- Indonesia's Balikpapan refinery upgraded to 260,000 bpd in 2023
- Kuwait's Al-Zour refinery reached full 615,000 bpd in 2023, complexity 10.5
- Global alkylation capacity at 2.7 million bpd in 2023, Europe 25% share
- Egypt's MIDOR refinery expanded to 160,000 bpd in 2023
Refining Capacity Interpretation
Asia now refines nearly half of the world's oil, but while it builds modern giants like Al-Zour, Europe shrinks and America runs flat-out, revealing a global map where industrial might is decisively shifting east, even as stranded assets like Mexico’s Dos Bocas refinery struggle to catch up.
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