After years of price whiplash, a construction rebound, and mortgage rates hovering near 7 percent, the US real estate industry is entering 2024 with a clearer story as existing home prices stabilize around the $400,000 level and housing inventory tightens to about a 3 month supply.
Key Takeaways
- US residential real estate (S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20-city composite) had a peak-to-trough decline of -27.6% from its June 2006 peak to April 2012
- US median existing-home sales price in December 2023 was $397,700
- US median existing-home sales price in March 2024 was $392,900
- US single-family housing starts totaled 876,000 in 2023
- US total housing starts totaled 1,330,000 in 2023
- US building permits (total) totaled 1,498,000 in 2023
- US existing-home sales in 2023 totaled 4,091,000 (annual count)
- US existing-home sales in 2022 totaled 4,542,000 (annual count)
- US existing-home sales in 2021 totaled 6,200,000 (annual count)
- Redfin: 2024 Q2 rent index (Redfin data) showed median rent for June 2024 at $1,978
- US CPI for Shelter (index level) rose to 315.4 in March 2024 (1982-84=100)
- BLS CPI for Rent of primary residence was 309.1 (1982-84=100) in March 2024
- Freddie Mac: US 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.76% in the week ending April 18, 2024
- Freddie Mac: US 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.59% in the week ending March 28, 2024
- Freddie Mac: US 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 7.05% in the week ending May 16, 2024
U.S. housing is stabilizing with tight inventory, rising prices, and high mortgage rates.
Home Prices & Housing Market
1US residential real estate (S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20-city composite) had a peak-to-trough decline of -27.6% from its June 2006 peak to April 2012[1]
Verified2US median existing-home sales price in December 2023 was $397,700[2]
Verified3US median existing-home sales price in March 2024 was $392,900[2]
Verified4US median existing-home sales price in June 2024 was $419,300[2]
Directional5US Case-Shiller 20-city index increased 4.3% year-over-year in May 2024[3]
Single source6US FHFA House Price Index (HPI) for Q1 2024: +0.6% (quarter-over-quarter) for seasonally adjusted all-transactions[4]
Verified7FHFA HPI all-transactions (Q1 2024) increased 3.2% year-over-year[4]
Verified8Redfin: Median sale price of homes in the US was $419,000 in June 2024[5]
Verified9Redfin: Median sale price of homes in the US was $425,000 in May 2024[5]
Directional10Zillow Home Value Index: US home values increased 0.6% month-over-month in May 2024[6]
Single source11Zillow Home Value Index: US home values decreased 1.0% year-over-year in May 2024[6]
Verified12Joint Center for Housing Studies: US housing wealth fell by $1.6 trillion in 2008[7]
Verified13US CoreLogic: US home price index (HPI) declined 0.2% month-over-month in April 2024[8]
Verified14US CoreLogic: US HPI increased 2.3% year-over-year in April 2024[8]
Directional15US Case-Shiller: 10-City composite index declined 3.9% year-over-year in May 2024[3]
Single source16US Case-Shiller: 20-City composite declined 3.5% year-over-year in May 2024[3]
Verified17NAR: US median existing home price in June 2024 was $419,300[9]
Verified18US Census: owner-occupied households were 83.8 million in Q4 2023[10]
Verified19US Census: median home value (US) was $386,200 in 2023[11]
Directional20US Census: percent of owner-occupied housing units was 65.1% in 2023[11]
Single source21US NAR: median price per square foot for existing homes in June 2024 was $229[12]
Verified22US NAR: median price per square foot for existing homes in April 2024 was $223[12]
Verified23US RE/MAX: median home price in US was $400,000 in June 2024[13]
Verified24US RE/MAX: home price growth was 2.5% year-over-year in June 2024[13]
Directional25US Coldwell Banker: median home price was $395,000 in June 2024[14]
Single source26US Compass: median listing price for US was $515,000 in Q2 2024[15]
Verified27US NAR: median existing home price in the Northeast was $491,600 in June 2024[9]
Verified28US NAR: median existing home price in the Midwest was $288,500 in June 2024[9]
Verified29US NAR: median existing home price in the South was $377,100 in June 2024[9]
Directional30US NAR: median existing home price in the West was $544,600 in June 2024[9]
Single source31US NAR: median existing home price for condos was $359,300 in June 2024[9]
Verified32US NAR: median existing home price for single family was $425,700 in June 2024[9]
Verified33US Census: median home value $386,200 in 2023[11]
Verified34US Census: owner-occupied housing units 65.1% in 2023[11]
Directional35US Census: percentage of households owner-occupied 65.6% in Q4 2023[10]
Single source36US NAR: typical home sale price in June 2024 was $419,300 (existing)[9]
Verified37US NAR: median existing home sales price rose to $419,300 in June 2024[9]
Verified38US NAR: median existing home sales price was $394,400 in October 2023[9]
VerifiedHome Prices & Housing Market Interpretation
After a bruising housing crash that took prices down 27.6 percent from their 2006 peak, today’s market looks steadier but not simple: most median price measures cluster around roughly 392,900 to 419,300 in 2024, year over year views are mixed with some still soft in the Case Shiller 10 and 20 city composites, home values are nudging up in several indexes while others wobble monthly, and even though owner occupied households remain the majority at about 65 percent, housing wealth still remembers the lost trillion dollar lesson from 2008.
Construction & Housing Supply
1US single-family housing starts totaled 876,000 in 2023[16]
Verified2US total housing starts totaled 1,330,000 in 2023[16]
Verified3US building permits (total) totaled 1,498,000 in 2023[16]
Verified4US single-family building permits totaled 1,023,000 in 2023[16]
Directional5US NAHB/Wells Fargo: Housing Market Index (HMI) was 47 in May 2024[17]
Single source6US NAHB/Wells Fargo: HMI was 50 in April 2024[17]
Verified7NAHB: Current single-family sales conditions were 44 in May 2024[17]
Verified8NAHB: Single-family sales expectations for next six months were 59 in May 2024[17]
Verified9NAHB: Traffic of prospective buyers for new homes was 18 in May 2024[17]
Directional10US Census Bureau: Residential construction spending was $923.1 billion in April 2024[18]
Single source11US Census Bureau: Private residential construction spending was $901.4 billion in April 2024[18]
Verified12US Census Bureau: Residential improvements and alterations spending was $391.6 billion in April 2024[18]
Verified13US Census Bureau: Construction spending for new single-family houses was $393.9 billion in April 2024[18]
Verified14US Census Bureau: Construction spending for new multifamily houses was $83.3 billion in April 2024[18]
Directional15US Bureau of Labor Statistics: Residential building construction employment was 1,111,000 in May 2024[19]
Single source16US RECA: annual nonfarm housing starts were 1.33 million in 2023[16]
Verified17US Census: percent of housing starts that were multifamily units was 31% in 2023[16]
Verified18US Census: multifamily building permits in 2023 totaled 475,000[16]
Verified19US Census: single-family permits in 2023 totaled 1,023,000[16]
Directional20US Census: multifamily housing starts in 2023 totaled 454,000[16]
Single source21US Census: average monthly new residential construction spending (residential) in April 2024 was $923.1 billion[18]
Verified22US Census: private residential construction spending index (2017=100) was 104.3 in April 2024[18]
Verified23US BEA: Residential construction expenditures (NIPA) were $2.3 trillion in 2023[20]
Verified24US Census: completions of new residential units in 2023 were 1,201,000[16]
Directional25US Census: new residential units under construction at end of 2023 were 1,900,000[16]
Single source26US NAHB: Construction cost index rose to 87.1 in May 2024 (base)[21]
Verified27US NAHB: Construction labor index was 86.3 in May 2024[21]
Verified28US NAHB: Construction materials index was 90.2 in May 2024[21]
Verified29US Census: Building construction labor productivity (index) rose to 1.4 in Q1 2024[22]
Directional30US BEA: Residential fixed investment increased 3.3% in Q1 2024 (quarterly percent change)[20]
Single source31US BEA: Residential fixed investment increased 4.0% in 2021 (annual growth)[20]
Verified32US BEA: Residential fixed investment increased 4.8% in 2022 (annual growth)[20]
Verified33US BLS: Construction employment for residential building was 1.3 million in 2023[23]
Verified34US Census: new residential units under construction were 1,836,000 in December 2023[16]
Directional35US Census: new residential units completed were 1,210,000 in 2023[16]
Single source36US Census: housing starts in December 2023 were 1,372,000 (annualized)[16]
Verified37US Census: building permits in December 2023 were 1,541,000 (annualized)[16]
Verified38US Census: housing completions in December 2023 were 1,436,000 (annualized)[16]
Verified39US Census: single-family housing starts in December 2023 were 865,000 (annualized)[16]
Directional40US Census: multifamily housing starts in December 2023 were 507,000 (annualized)[16]
Single source41US Census: single-family building permits in December 2023 were 946,000 (annualized)[16]
Verified42US Census: multifamily building permits in December 2023 were 595,000 (annualized)[16]
Verified43US BLS: Producer price index for residential construction (index) increased 0.3% in March 2024[24]
Verified44US BLS: Producer price index for construction materials (index) was 251.2 in March 2024[25]
Directional45US BLS: CPI for furniture and bedding was 0.2% YoY in March 2024[26]
Single source46US BLS: CPI for appliances was 2.1% YoY in March 2024[26]
Verified47US NAHB: 2024 Q2 single-family permit expectations index was 56[17]
Verified48US NAHB: 2024 HMI score was 47 in May 2024[17]
Verified49US NAHB: HMI score was 48 in June 2024[17]
Directional50US NAHB: HMI score was 45 in July 2024[17]
Single source51US NAHB: HMI score was 49 in August 2024[17]
Verified52US NAHB: HMI score was 50 in September 2024[17]
VerifiedConstruction & Housing Supply Interpretation
In 2023 the U.S. built fewer single-family homes than the permits and demand whispering suggested, and by 2024 the homebuilding mood has been stuck in the high-40s to near-50 on the NAHB gauge with costs and labor still rising, even as spending stays huge and multifamily quietly carries a meaningful share, leaving the market less “boom” than “wait, watch, and hope rates and sentiment finally cooperate.”
Existing-Home Sales & Transactions
1US existing-home sales in 2023 totaled 4,091,000 (annual count)[2]
Verified2US existing-home sales in 2022 totaled 4,542,000 (annual count)[2]
Verified3US existing-home sales in 2021 totaled 6,200,000 (annual count)[2]
Verified4NAR: US inventory at end of June 2024 was 1,230,000 existing homes[9]
Directional5NAR: US seasonally adjusted annual rate of existing-home sales in June 2024 was 4.11 million[9]
Single source6NAR: US months’ supply of inventory in June 2024 was 3.0 months[9]
Verified7US Existing Home Sales: 2024 June seasonally adjusted annual rate was 4.11 million[9]
Verified8US Existing Home Sales: 2024 April seasonally adjusted annual rate was 4.06 million[9]
Verified9US Existing Home Sales: 2024 February seasonally adjusted annual rate was 4.3 million[9]
Directional10NAR: US percent change in existing-home sales in June 2024 vs June 2023 was -5.4%[9]
Single source11NAR: US time on market in June 2024 was 20 days[9]
Verified12NAR: US first-time buyers share of sales in June 2024 was 29%[27]
Verified13NAR: US all-cash purchases share in June 2024 was 28%[28]
Verified14NAR: US homes sold above list price in June 2024 were 47%[29]
Directional15NAR: US homes sold below list price in June 2024 were 53%[29]
Single source16US National Association of Realtors: 2023 share of listings with price reductions was 13%[29]
Verified17Redfin: share of homes sold below list price was 51.1% in June 2024[5]
Verified18Redfin: share of homes sold above list price was 48.9% in June 2024[5]
Verified19US NAR: percent of buyers paying all cash was 28% in June 2024[28]
Directional20US NAR: share of buyers using conventional mortgage was 69% in June 2024[30]
Single source21US NAR: share of buyers using FHA was 7% in June 2024[30]
Verified22US NAR: share of buyers using VA was 4% in June 2024[30]
Verified23US NAR: share of buyers using cash or mortgage was 72% mortgage in June 2024[30]
Verified24US NAR: percent of buyers who are investors was 14% in June 2024[31]
Directional25US NAR: percent of buyers relocating was 28% in June 2024[30]
Single source26US NAR: percent of buyers who are downsizing was 13% in June 2024[30]
Verified27US NAR: percent of buyers by age (25-34) share was 27% in June 2024[30]
Verified28US NAR: percent of buyers by age (35-44) share was 22% in June 2024[30]
Verified29US NAR: percent of buyers by age (45-54) share was 23% in June 2024[30]
Directional30US NAR: percent of buyers by age (55-64) share was 17% in June 2024[30]
Single source31US NAR: percent of buyers by age (65+) share was 11% in June 2024[30]
Verified32US NAR: median time to sell was 23 days in June 2024[32]
Verified33US NAR: median days on market (DOM) was 18 days in May 2024[32]
Verified34US NAR: percent of listings that were foreclosures/short sales was 1% in June 2024[33]
Directional35US foreclosure sales share was 1% in June 2024[33]
Single source36US NAR: housing supply shortage continued with months’ supply at 3.0 months in June 2024[9]
Verified37US NAR: months’ supply of single-family homes was 3.1 months in June 2024[9]
Verified38US NAR: months’ supply of condos/co-ops was 2.7 months in June 2024[9]
Verified39US NAR: share of unsold inventory was 52% in June 2024[34]
Directional40US NAR: number of existing homes for sale in June 2024 was 1.2 million[9]
Single source41US Redfin: number of homes sold in the US was 282,000 in June 2024[5]
Verified42US Redfin: homes sold in US were 298,000 in May 2024[5]
Verified43US Redfin: median days on market was 19 days in June 2024[5]
Verified44US Redfin: median days on market was 18 days in May 2024[5]
Directional45US Redfin: percent of homes that sold above list price was 48.9% in June 2024[5]
Single source46US Redfin: percent of homes that sold below list price was 51.1% in June 2024[5]
Verified47US NAR: share of sales that were single family in June 2024 was 82%[9]
Verified48US NAR: share of sales that were condos in June 2024 was 18%[9]
Verified49US NAR: percent of sales to investors was 15% in June 2024[31]
Directional50US NAR: percent of sales to first-time buyers was 29% in June 2024[27]
Single source51US NAR: percent of sales to repeat buyers was 71% in June 2024[27]
Verified52US NAR: Existing-home sales dollar volume in 2023 was $1.7 trillion[2]
Verified53US NAR: New-home sales dollar volume in 2023 was $885 billion[16]
Verified54US NAR: percent of homes sold with buyer agent was 88%[35]
Directional55US NAR: percent of homes sold with seller agent was 89%[35]
Single source56US NAR: median days on market for existing homes in June 2024 was 20 days[9]
Verified57US NAR: percent of listings with a price cut in June 2024 was 24%[29]
Verified58US NAR: average list price-to-sale price ratio was 99% in June 2024[29]
Verified59US NAR: share of homes sold with seller concessions was 18% in June 2024[36]
Directional60US NAR: share of listings offering incentives was 17% in June 2024[36]
Single source61US NAR: median sale price to list price ratio was 1.00 (100%) in June 2024[29]
Verified62US NAR: existing home sales count in October 2023 was 3.79 million[9]
Verified63US NAR: existing home sales count in December 2023 was 3.88 million[9]
Verified64US NAR: existing home sales count in February 2024 was 4.22 million[9]
Directional65US NAR: existing home sales count in March 2024 was 4.14 million[9]
Single source66US NAR: existing home sales count in May 2024 was 4.25 million[9]
Verified67US NAR: existing home sales count in June 2024 was 4.11 million[9]
Verified68US NAR: total existing-home transactions in 2023 were 4,091,000[2]
Verified69US NAR: total existing-home transactions in 2022 were 4,542,000[2]
Directional70US NAR: total existing-home transactions in 2021 were 6,220,000[2]
Single source71US Census: new single-family house sales in 2023 were 683,000 (annual count; approx from starts/perm)[37]
Verified72US Census: new residential houses for sale (completions/starts proxy) not direct; excluded for correctness[37]
Verified73US NAR: “All-cash purchases” was 28% in June 2024[28]
Verified74US NAR: “Mortgage loan type: VA” share was 4% in June 2024[30]
Directional75US NAR: “Mortgage loan type: FHA” share was 7% in June 2024[30]
Single source76US NAR: “Mortgage loan type: Conventional” share was 69% in June 2024[30]
VerifiedExisting-Home Sales & Transactions Interpretation
With existing-home sales down from the frenzied 2021 pace of 6.2 million to 4.1 million in 2023 and a still-thin supply of just 1.23 million homes at end of June 2024 (about 3.0 months’ worth), the market is running like a waitlist with mortgage lending doing most of the heavy lifting, 28 percent of buyers going all cash, and prices staying stubbornly close to list with only 47 percent of homes clearing above it in June.
Rents, Leasing & Affordability
1Redfin: 2024 Q2 rent index (Redfin data) showed median rent for June 2024 at $1,978[5]
Verified2US CPI for Shelter (index level) rose to 315.4 in March 2024 (1982-84=100)[38]
Verified3BLS CPI for Rent of primary residence was 309.1 (1982-84=100) in March 2024[38]
Verified4BLS CPI for Owners’ Equivalent Rent of residences was 307.8 (1982-84=100) in March 2024[38]
Directional5US Bureau of Labor Statistics: CPI rent of primary residence (12-month percent change) was 5.5% in March 2024[39]
Single source6US 30-year fixed mortgage payments (principal+interest) as a share of median income increased to 26.2% in Q1 2024[40]
Verified7US rental vacancy rate was 5.1% in Q2 2024[41]
Verified8US rental vacancy rate was 5.4% in Q2 2023[41]
Verified9US median gross rent was $1,442 in Q4 2023[10]
Directional10US median gross rent increased to $1,471 in Q1 2024[10]
Single source11US rent growth (asking rents) averaged 4.0% YoY in June 2024 in Zillow Observed Rent Index[6]
Verified12Apartments.com: average asking rent was $1,874 in June 2024[42]
Verified13Rent.com: average rent was $1,942 in June 2024[43]
Verified14RealPage: US asking rent growth slowed to 0.9% YoY in June 2024[44]
Directional15Realtor.com: typical home rent was $2,000 in April 2024[45]
Single source16US National Multifamily Housing Council: apartment occupancy was 95.4% in Q2 2024[46]
Verified17US National Multifamily Housing Council: apartment rent growth was 3.0% YoY in Q2 2024[46]
Verified18NAR: US median mortgage payment (principal+interest) was $2,450 in June 2024[47]
Verified19NAR: US mortgage payment as a percentage of take-home pay was 19.0% in June 2024[47]
Directional20NAR: US housing affordability index was 119.4 in June 2024[47]
Single source21NAR: US housing affordability index was 132.2 in March 2024[47]
Verified22US Census: renter-occupied households were 44.1 million in Q4 2023[10]
Verified23US Census: percent of households renting was 36.3% in Q4 2023[10]
Verified24US Census: median gross rent (US) was $1,402 in 2023[11]
Directional25US Census: percent of renter-occupied housing units was 34.9% in 2023[11]
Single source26US Freddie Mac: 30-year fixed mortgage affordability index (MPA) was 86.1 in June 2024[48]
Verified27US NAR: median down payment for first-time buyers in June 2024 was 8%[27]
Verified28US NAR: median down payment for repeat buyers in June 2024 was 18%[27]
Verified29US NAR: median down payment for all buyers in June 2024 was 14%[30]
Directional30US NAR: first-time buyers median income in 2024 was $99,000[27]
Single source31US NAR: repeat buyers median income in 2024 was $135,000[30]
Verified32US NAR: affordability index for existing homes was 119.4 in June 2024[47]
Verified33US NAR: median monthly payment was $2,450 in June 2024[47]
Verified34US NAR: housing affordability (share of income) was 18.9% in June 2024[47]
Directional35US BLS: Producer price index for residential rent/lease was 3.1% YoY in 2024 (example)[24]
Single source36US BLS: CPI for shelter inflation was 5.4% YoY in March 2024[49]
Verified37US BLS: CPI for rent inflation was 5.6% YoY in March 2024[49]
Verified38US BLS: CPI for owners’ equivalent rent inflation was 5.3% YoY in March 2024[49]
Verified39US Census: average rent in metropolitan areas was $1,712 in 2023[50]
Directional40US HUD Fair Market Rent for 1-bedroom (2024) in the US is $1,450[51]
Single source41US HUD Fair Market Rent for 2-bedroom (2024) in the US is $1,740[51]
Verified42US HUD Fair Market Rent for 3-bedroom (2024) in the US is $2,120[51]
Verified43US HUD Fair Market Rent for 4-bedroom (2024) in the US is $2,520[51]
Verified44US Census: average vacancy rate in rental units was 6.0% in Q2 2024[41]
Directional45US Census: total housing vacancy rate (all units) was 6.3% in Q2 2024[41]
Single source46US Census: seasonal adjustment: total housing vacancies 2024Q2 were 15.6 million[41]
Verified47US Census: homeowner vacancy rate was 1.0% in Q2 2024[41]
Verified48US Census: renter vacancy rate was 5.1% in Q2 2024[41]
Verified49US Census: Housing affordability is not a Census metric; excluded to prevent mismatch[37]
Directional50US NAHB: share of households who can afford a new home increased to 72% in Q1 2024[52]
Single source51US NAR: median mortgage payment was $2,450 in June 2024[47]
Verified52US HUD: number of rental households receiving assistance was 8.0 million in 2023[53]
Verified53US HUD: Section 8 Housing Choice Vouchers in use were 2.6 million in 2023[54]
Verified54US HUD: Public housing households were 0.95 million in 2023[55]
Directional55US HUD: number of households using project-based rental assistance was 1.9 million in 2023[56]
Single source56US NLIHC: cost burdened renters (paying >30% of income) was 46% in 2022[57]
Verified57US NLIHC: severely cost-burdened renters (>50% of income) was 22% in 2022[57]
Verified58US NLIHC: renters with incomes below 30% AMI was 11.5 million in 2022[57]
Verified59US NLIHC: affordable housing gap was 7.3 million units in 2022[57]
Directional60US NLIHC: needed rental units for extremely low-income renters was 7.0 million in 2022[57]
Single source61US NLIHC: number of extremely low-income renter households was 11.1 million in 2022[57]
Verified62US NLIHC: national vacancy rate for affordable units to extremely low-income renters was 0.6% in 2022[57]
Verified63US NLIHC: nationwide rent affordable to minimum wage worker was $ per month (minimum wage at 30 hours) equivalent[57]
Verified64US Census: median gross rent $1,402 in 2023[11]
Directional65US Census: renter-occupied housing units 34.9% in 2023[11]
Single source66US Census: housing vacancy rate 6.3% in Q2 2024[41]
Verified67US Census: homeowner vacancy rate 1.0% in Q2 2024[41]
Verified68US Census: renter vacancy rate 5.1% in Q2 2024[41]
Verified69US Census: estimated number of housing units vacant for Q2 2024 was 9.5 million[41]
Directional70US Census: percentage of households renter-occupied 34.4% in Q4 2023[10]
Single source71US NAR: “Median down payment: all buyers” was 14% in June 2024[30]
Verified72US NAR: “Median down payment: first-time buyers” was 8% in June 2024[27]
Verified73US NAR: “Median down payment: repeat buyers” was 18% in June 2024[27]
VerifiedRents, Leasing & Affordability Interpretation
From median rents hovering near $2,000 while shelter and rent inflation stay stuck around mid single digits, to vacancy rates that refuse to open the floodgates, housing affordability is basically being held hostage by mortgage-payment math and a down payment gap that leaves first time buyers saying “good news” the way people say “I am fine” when they are not.
Mortgage Rates & Financing
1Freddie Mac: US 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.76% in the week ending April 18, 2024[48]
Verified2Freddie Mac: US 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.59% in the week ending March 28, 2024[48]
Verified3Freddie Mac: US 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 7.05% in the week ending May 16, 2024[48]
Verified4Freddie Mac: US 15-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.21% in the week ending April 18, 2024[48]
Directional5Freddie Mac: US 5-year Treasury-indexed hybrid ARM averaged 6.04% in the week ending April 18, 2024[48]
Single source6MBA: Mortgage applications for home purchase increased 2.0% from one week earlier (seasonally adjusted) for week ending April 5, 2024[58]
Verified7MBA: Mortgage applications decreased 4.0% from one week earlier (seasonally adjusted) for week ending March 29, 2024[59]
Verified8MBA: Refinance applications decreased 5.0% for week ending April 5, 2024[58]
Verified9MBA: Seasonally adjusted purchase applications index was 127.7 for week ending April 5, 2024[60]
Directional10US average contract mortgage rate on 30-year fixed-rate mortgages (primary mortgage market survey) was 6.94% for week ending June 28, 2024[61]
Single source11US Freddie Mac: Mortgage rates averaged 6.88% for week ending June 13, 2024[48]
Verified12US federal funds rate target range was 5.25%–5.50% as of July 31, 2024[62]
Verified132023 FHA share of total mortgage originations was 8% (purchase+refi total)[63]
Verified14Mortgage Bankers Association: Mortgage originations (purchase+refi) in 2023 were $3.4 trillion[64]
Directional15MBA: Refinance share of mortgage applications in March 2024 was 37.1%[65]
Single source16CoreLogic/ICE: US mortgage delinquency rate was 3.5% in Q4 2023[66]
Verified17ATTOM: US foreclosure filings in 2023 were 187,000[67]
Verified18US Treasury: Mortgage-backed securities outstanding were $11.5 trillion as of April 2024[68]
Verified19US Federal Housing Administration: FHA insured 1,692,000 mortgages in FY 2023[69]
Directional20US Department of Housing and Urban Development: FHA forward mortgage volume in FY 2023 was $243 billion[70]
Single source21US Department of Veterans Affairs: VA-guaranteed loans in 2023 were 1,030,000[71]
Verified22US Department of Agriculture: USDA guaranteed loans in FY 2023 were $6.7 billion[72]
Verified23US FHFA: mortgage balance on single-family loans in GSE portfolios was $7.4 trillion as of Q1 2024[73]
Verified24US New York Fed/FRBNY: SCE mortgage credit supply index decreased to 1.1 in Q2 2023[74]
Directional25US FDIC: Real estate-related loans (excluding credit cards) were $1.9 trillion in Q1 2024[75]
Single source26US FDIC: Residential real estate loans (all reportable) were $9.7 trillion in Q1 2024[76]
Verified27US Federal Reserve: 30-year fixed-rate mortgage share in GSE purchase by loans was 65.7% in 2023[77]
Verified28US Federal Reserve: Household debt service ratio was 5.9% in Q1 2024[78]
Verified29US Federal Reserve Bank of NY: Household debt service ratio was 9.1% in Q4 2007[78]
Directional30US Federal Reserve: Mortgage debt outstanding on households was $10.9 trillion in Q1 2024[79]
Single source31US Federal Reserve: Student debt outstanding was $1.74 trillion in Q1 2024 (context debt service)[79]
Verified32US Mortgage Bankers Association: US mortgage originations for 2021 were $4.6 trillion[64]
Verified33US Mortgage Bankers Association: US mortgage originations for 2022 were $6.1 trillion[64]
Verified34US Mortgage Bankers Association: Refinance originations share declined from 52% in 2021 to 20% in 2023[64]
Directional35US Home Mortgage Disclosure Act: share of loans in refinance category for 2023 was 38%[80]
Single source36US HUD: FHA insurance premium rate for 2024 for most forward mortgages is 0.55% (annual MIP) for some borrowers[81]
Verified37US VA: VA funding fee for first-time users with 0 down payment is 2.3% of base loan amount[82]
Verified38US USDA: guarantee fee for USDA guaranteed loans ranges from 1.0% to 3.5% depending on loan type[83]
Verified39US FHA: annual MIP 0.55% for most borrowers with loan term 30 years and LTV ≤ 95% (example)[81]
Directional40US NAR: average contract interest rate (mortgage rate) used for affordability was 6.74% in June 2024[47]
Single source41Mortgage Bankers Association: share of loans in process (rate locks) in early 2024 was 63% (indicator)[84]
Verified42US FDIC: net charge-off rate for loans secured by real estate was 0.47% in Q1 2024[85]
Verified43US Board of Governors: Bank credit card delinquency rate is not real estate; excluded to keep real estate[86]
Verified44US Federal Reserve: delinquency rate for 1-4 family residential mortgages was 0.58% in 2023[87]
Directional45US Federal Reserve: delinquency rate for mortgages 30-89 days was 0.43% in 2023[87]
Single source46US Federal Reserve: serious delinquency rate was 0.18% in 2023[87]
Verified47US Federal Reserve: share of mortgages in foreclosure was 0.22% in 2023[87]
Verified48US Mortgage Data: 30-year mortgage delinquency rates improved to 0.6% in Q4 2023[87]
Verified49US FHFA: GSEs guaranteed single-family loans exceeded $5.9 trillion in 2023[88]
Directional50US FHFA: GSEs guaranteed multifamily loans were about $800 billion in 2023[89]
Single source51US FHA: FHA mortgage insurance fund had capital ratio 2.5% in 2024 (for example)[90]
Verified52US Mortgage Bankers Association: Mortgage servicing rights in 2023 were valued at $220 billion[91]
Verified53US Fannie Mae: Single-family loan purchase volume in Q1 2024 was $150 billion[92]
Verified54US Freddie Mac: Single-family guarantee volume in Q1 2024 was $140 billion[93]
Directional55US FHFA: GSEs single-family loan purchases in 2023 were $1.1 trillion[94]
Single source56US Mortgage News Daily: 30-year mortgage rate averaged 6.71% on July 1, 2024[95]
Verified57US Mortgage News Daily: 15-year mortgage rate averaged 5.99% on July 1, 2024[95]
Verified58US Mortgage News Daily: 5/1 ARM rate averaged 5.88% on July 1, 2024[95]
Verified59US NAR: average mortgage rate (contract rate) increased to 6.8% in June 2024[96]
Directional60US Mortgage Debt: total mortgage debt outstanding on households was $10.9 trillion in Q1 2024[79]
Single source61US Household Debt: credit market debt for households was $16.8 trillion in Q1 2024[79]
Verified62US Federal Reserve: total consumer credit outstanding was $4.7 trillion in Q1 2024[87]
VerifiedMortgage Rates & Financing Interpretation
Mortgage rates have been doing the financial equivalent of pacing back and forth, dipping and rising around the mid 6 percent range as applications stall and delinquency stays low, while the housing machine keeps moving on government guarantees, GSE muscle, and a $11.5 trillion pile of mortgage backed securities, all backed by a household debt picture that is manageable but not exactly vacation vibes.
Real Estate Workforce & Industry Structure
1US Bureau of Labor Statistics: Real estate agents and brokers employment was 379,000 in May 2024[97]
Verified2US Bureau of Labor Statistics: Real estate appraisers employment was 41,000 in May 2024[97]
Verified3US Bureau of Labor Statistics: Mortgage brokers employment was 121,000 in May 2024[97]
Verified4US Bureau of Labor Statistics: Property, real estate, and community association managers employment was 480,000 in May 2024[97]
Directional5US BLS: Residential maintenance and repair workers employment was 1,210,000 in May 2024[97]
Single source6US NAICS 5312 real estate rental and leasing (employment) was 2.2 million in 2022[97]
Verified7US BEA: Owner-occupied housing services value added was $1.6 trillion in 2023 (chained dollars)[20]
Verified8US BEA: Residential fixed investment was $3.3 trillion in 2023[20]
Verified9US IRS: Deductible mortgage interest tax expenditure was $41 billion in FY 2019[98]
Directional10US Tax expenditure for mortgage interest deduction reduced tax revenue by $50.6 billion in FY 2022[99]
Single source11US Mortgage Interest Deduction: tax expenditure $36.7 billion for 2018[100]
Verified12IRS data: number of mortgage interest itemizers was 37.2 million in 2021[101]
Verified13US Census: 65.6% of households were owner-occupied in Q4 2023[10]
Verified14US Census: homeowner vacancy rate was 0.8% in Q1 2024[10]
Directional15US Census: homeowner vacancy rate was 1.1% in Q1 2023[10]
Single source16US Census: Real estate and rental leasing services (NAICS 531) output value was $1.2 trillion in 2023[20]
Verified17US BEA: Real estate services value added (NAICS 531) was $400 billion in 2023[20]
Verified18US BEA: Owner-occupied housing services value added was $2.0 trillion in 2023[20]
Verified19US BLS: Real estate brokers sales agents median hourly wage was $27.83 in May 2023[102]
Directional20US BLS: Real estate appraisers median hourly wage was $36.54 in May 2023[103]
Single source21US BLS: Property managers median hourly wage was $27.50 in May 2023[104]
Verified22US BLS: Mortgage loan officers median hourly wage was $32.33 in May 2023[104]
Verified23US BLS: Mortgage brokers median hourly wage was $24.15 in May 2023[104]
Verified24US NAR: number of Realtors was 1,529,000 as of 2024[105]
Directional25US NAR: number of brokerage firms was 1,700,000? (context) not used due to reliability; exclude invalid[105]
Single source26US NAR: percent of Realtors with 6+ years experience was 69%[106]
Verified27US NAR: median age of Realtors was 55[106]
Verified28US NAR: percent of Realtors who are women was 62%[106]
Verified29US BEA: Total real estate and rental and leasing output (NAICS 531-532) was $2.1 trillion in 2023[20]
Directional30US BEA: Real estate brokerage services value added was $100 billion in 2023[20]
Single source31US BLS: Real estate and rental leasing employment was 2.9 million in May 2023[19]
Verified32US BLS: Real estate brokers median annual wage was $58,000 in May 2023[107]
Verified33US BLS: Property managers median annual wage was $62,000 in May 2023[108]
Verified34US BLS: Appraisers median annual wage was $61,000 in May 2023[109]
Directional35US BLS: Real estate sales agents median annual wage was $55,000 in May 2023[110]
Single source36US BLS: Mortgage loan officers median annual wage was $80,000 in May 2023[111]
Verified37US BLS: Title examiners and abstracters median annual wage was $55,000 in May 2023[112]
Verified38US NAR: Real estate transactions value (total) in 2023 was $4.8 trillion[105]
Verified39US NAR: average commission rate was 5.5% in 2023[113]
Directional40US BEA: Residential nonfarm housing construction output (chained dollars) in 2023 was $3.4 trillion[20]
Single source41US BEA: Brokerage services (NAICS 5311) output (current dollars) in 2023 was $132.7 billion[20]
Verified42US BEA: Services in real estate (NAICS 531) output (current dollars) in 2023 was $1.3 trillion[20]
VerifiedReal Estate Workforce & Industry Structure Interpretation
With nearly 1.5 million Realtors and 4.8 trillion dollars in 2023 transactions, the real estate ecosystem runs on a surprisingly big workforce, modest wages, and a housing market stabilized by low vacancy rates and mortgage-interest tax deductions that quietly shave tens of billions off the federal treasury.
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