While home prices shattered records in 2024, soaring to a new high of $412,300, the American real estate market told a more complex story of cooling sales, shifting affordability, and regional divides that defined a transformative year.
Key Takeaways
- In 2023, the median sales price of existing single-family homes in the United States reached $389,800, marking a 5.7% increase from the previous year.
- Existing-home sales totaled 4.09 million in 2023, down 19.0% from 2022 levels.
- The average sales price for all types of existing homes in December 2023 was $382,600, up 4.8% from December 2022.
- Total US housing inventory stood at 1.28 million units at end of 2023.
- Months' supply of existing homes was 3.8 months in December 2023.
- New listings in December 2023 were 318,000, down 4.3% YoY.
- National median rent was $1,384 in September 2024.
- Rent growth slowed to 0.6% YoY nationally in September 2024.
- Multifamily vacancy rate was 6.5% in Q2 2024.
- Total retail space vacancy rate was 5.3% in Q3 2024.
- Office vacancy rate nationwide hit 19.8% in Q3 2024.
- Industrial vacancy rate was 5.6% in Q3 2024.
- Total mortgage debt on 1-4 family homes was $12.8 trillion in Q2 2024.
- 30-year fixed mortgage rate averaged 6.81% in 2023.
- Mortgage originations totaled $1.68 trillion in 2023.
A cooling housing market saw fewer sales but record high prices in 2024.
Commercial Real Estate
- Total retail space vacancy rate was 5.3% in Q3 2024.
- Office vacancy rate nationwide hit 19.8% in Q3 2024.
- Industrial vacancy rate was 5.6% in Q3 2024.
- Net absorption for multifamily was 240,000 units in 2023.
- Retail sales per sq ft averaged $612 in 2023.
- Office asking rents rose 2.1% YoY to $33.90 psf in 2024.
- Industrial rents reached $8.49 psf nationally in Q3 2024.
- Total US office inventory 12.4 billion sq ft as of 2024.
- Retail cap rates averaged 6.8% in Q3 2024.
- Hotel occupancy rate was 63.2% in 2023.
- Data center vacancy under 1% with 500MW under construction Q3 2024.
- Medical office vacancy 8.2% in Q2 2024.
- Total commercial real estate lending $5.2 trillion outstanding 2023.
- Construction starts for nonresidential fell 8.1% in 2023.
- NYC office vacancy 16.5%, highest since 2002.
- SF office vacancy 34.3% in Q3 2024.
- Logistics space absorption 300 million sq ft in 2023.
- Grocery-anchored retail vacancy 4.9% stable in 2024.
- Self-storage rents up 1.2% YoY in Q3 2024.
- Total CRE transaction volume $495 billion in 2023, down 46%.
- Office investment sales down 60% YoY to $30B in 2023.
- Industrial deals totaled $100B in 2023.
- Hotel transaction volume $25B in 2023.
- Average hotel RevPAR $110.32 in 2023.
- Flex space vacancy 9.1% in suburban markets 2024.
Commercial Real Estate Interpretation
The commercial real estate market is a tale of two worlds: while the office sector is quietly collapsing under the weight of its own empty desks, the rest of the industry is busy fulfilling our every logistical, storage, and data-hungry need.
Home Prices and Sales
- In 2023, the median sales price of existing single-family homes in the United States reached $389,800, marking a 5.7% increase from the previous year.
- Existing-home sales totaled 4.09 million in 2023, down 19.0% from 2022 levels.
- The average sales price for all types of existing homes in December 2023 was $382,600, up 4.8% from December 2022.
- In Q4 2023, US home prices increased by 5.3% year-over-year according to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller National Home Price Index.
- The median home sales price in the US hit a record $412,300 in June 2024.
- Single-family home sales in 2023 averaged 2.79 million units annually.
- Pending home sales index rose 0.6% in December 2023 to 77.6.
- In 2023, 28% of homes sold above list price, down from 34% in 2022.
- The national median sale price per square foot for homes sold in May 2024 was $225.
- Existing condo-coop sales in 2023 were 510,000 units, down 9% from 2022.
- Home sales in the Northeast region averaged $450,200 median price in 2023.
- Midwest median existing-home price in 2023 was $299,000, up 6.4% YoY.
- Southern US median home price reached $345,800 in 2023.
- Western region homes sold at median $555,100 in 2023.
- First-time buyers accounted for 27% of all buyers in 2023 NAR survey.
- Repeat buyers made up 73% of total home purchases in 2023.
- 22% of 2023 buyers purchased in a suburb, up from 18% prior year.
- Average days on market for homes sold in 2023 was 29 days.
- In 2023, 51% of homes sold within a month of listing.
- Luxury home sales (over $1 million) fell 8.5% in Q1 2024 YoY.
- Median price for starter homes under $300k dropped 1.4% YoY in May 2024.
- iBuyer purchases represented less than 1% of all home sales in 2023.
- Cash sales accounted for 28% of all transactions in Q2 2024.
- FHA-financed home sales made up 17% of purchase market in 2023.
- VA loan purchases were 11% of total home sales in 2023.
- Conventional loans financed 52% of home purchases in 2023.
- Seller concessions reached 1.7% of sale price in Q2 2024.
- Price cuts occurred on 40.1% of homes listed in August 2024.
- Median list price nationwide was $435,000 in September 2024.
- Homes sold for 98.2% of original list price in September 2024.
Home Prices and Sales Interpretation
While prices climbed to dizzying new heights, the market's pulse remained faint, as a sharp decline in sales revealed a stark reality: affordability has officially been evicted.
Housing Inventory and Supply
- Total US housing inventory stood at 1.28 million units at end of 2023.
- Months' supply of existing homes was 3.8 months in December 2023.
- New listings in December 2023 were 318,000, down 4.3% YoY.
- Active listings increased 13.5% YoY to 1.05 million in February 2024.
- National inventory of unsold homes rose to 4.2 months supply in July 2024.
- Homes for sale nationwide hit 1.4 million in August 2024, up 25% YoY.
- New unsold single-family homes inventory was 481,000 units in August 2024.
- Under construction single-family homes numbered 639,000 in August 2024.
- Shadow inventory (seriously delinquent + foreclosures) was under 1% of homes in 2023.
- Total vacant housing units in US were 15.1 million in Q1 2024.
- Rental vacancy rate was 6.6% in Q1 2024.
- Homeowner vacancy rate stood at 0.9% in Q1 2024.
- Inventory of homes actively for sale was up 40% YoY in mid-2024 suburbs.
- Pending listings increased 5.6% YoY in September 2024.
- Months of supply for new single-family homes was 8.7 months in August 2024.
- Existing single-family inventory was 3.3 months supply in Q3 2024.
- Price per square foot for listings fell to $213 in Q3 2024.
- Expired listings share rose to 14% of all listings in 2024.
- Total active listings hit 870,000 in October 2023 low point.
- Inventory-to-sales ratio for existing homes was 4.2 months in June 2024.
- New home inventory was 372,000 units seasonally adjusted in 2023 avg.
- Regional inventory in South was 430,000 homes in Q2 2024.
- Northeast active listings up 20% YoY to 140,000 in summer 2024.
- Midwest supply reached 4.5 months in Q3 2024.
- Western US inventory surged 30% YoY to 220,000 listings.
- Distressed sales (foreclosures/short sales) were 2% of all sales in 2023.
- Second-home sales dropped 35% YoY in 2023.
- Investor purchases were 16% of home sales in Q1 2024.
- Median days on market for active inventory was 64 days in Sept 2024.
Housing Inventory and Supply Interpretation
The market is finally taking a deep breath after a years-long sprint, as rising inventory and cooler demand shift the power subtly, but not dramatically, from a seller's gallop to a more measured walk.
Mortgages and Financing
- Total mortgage debt on 1-4 family homes was $12.8 trillion in Q2 2024.
- 30-year fixed mortgage rate averaged 6.81% in 2023.
- Mortgage originations totaled $1.68 trillion in 2023.
- Delinquency rate for 1-4 family mortgages was 3.97% in Q2 2024.
- FHA delinquency rate 10.62% in Q2 2024.
- VA delinquency at 4.04% Q2 2024.
- Prime jumbo originations $295 billion in 2023.
- Refinance share of originations 18% in 2023.
- Purchase originations $1.39 trillion in 2023.
- Average FICO score for mortgages 754 in Q1 2024.
- Debt-to-income ratio averaged 38% for new loans 2023.
- Loan-to-value ratio 78% average for purchases 2023.
- Foreclosure starts 0.10% of serviced loans Q2 2024.
- GSE share of new originations 52% in 2023.
- Ginnie Mae guaranteed 25% of 2023 originations.
- Non-agency jumbo 5% of market in 2023.
- Mortgage applications up 1.9% WoW in latest survey.
- ARM share 7.3% of applications in 2024.
- Jumbo applications 10% of total volume 2024.
- FHA applications 15.2% share in 2024.
- Home equity line usage up 5% YoY Q2 2024.
- Reverse mortgage originations 58,000 in 2023.
- Credit union mortgage lending $85B in 2023.
- Bank mortgage production $450B in 2023.
- Nonbank lender share 54% of originations 2023.
- 15-year fixed rate averaged 6.16% in 2023.
- Mortgage servicing rights valued at $2.1 trillion 2023.
- Serious delinquency (90+ days) 0.74% Q2 2024.
Mortgages and Financing Interpretation
Despite a mountain of debt and rising rates keeping borrowers on their best behavior, the American homeowner appears to be tiptoeing through a field of financial landmines with remarkable, if precarious, grace.
Rental Market
- National median rent was $1,384 in September 2024.
- Rent growth slowed to 0.6% YoY nationally in September 2024.
- Multifamily vacancy rate was 6.5% in Q2 2024.
- Average US apartment rent reached $1,700 in Q3 2024.
- Renters aged 18-34 make up 37% of all renters in 2023.
- Suburban rent growth outpaced urban by 2% in 2024.
- One-bedroom median rent was $1,500 in top 50 metros avg 2024.
- Two-bedroom rents averaged $1,800 nationwide in 2024.
- 44 million households rented in US as of 2023 Census data.
- Rent burden (over 30% income) affected 49% of renters in 2023.
- Eviction filings totaled 3.6 million renter households in 2023.
- Median renter income was $53,000 in 2023 ACS data.
- Institutional investors own 3% of single-family rentals as of 2024.
- Airbnb listings impacted long-term rental supply by 1.5% in 2023.
- Rent control covers 2% of US rental units in 2024.
- Multifamily completions added 440,000 units in 2023.
- Asking rents for new leases rose 3.2% YoY in Q3 2024.
- Occupancy rate for apartments was 94.2% in September 2024.
- Sunbelt cities saw 5% rent increases in 2024.
- Northeast rents flat at 0.1% YoY growth in 2024.
- Midwest median rent $1,200, up 2.5% YoY.
- Southern rents averaged $1,450, highest growth region.
- Western US median rent $1,900 in 2024.
- 35% of renters spend over 50% income on housing.
- Student housing vacancy was 5.8% pre-2024 fall semester.
- Senior housing occupancy 87% in Q2 2024.
- Short-term rental revenue grew 8% YoY in 2023.
- Delinquent renters 9.5 million households in Q1 2024.
Rental Market Interpretation
The market is a master of cruel math, coolly reporting that rent is "only" up 0.6% nationally while nearly half of all renters are financially drowning, spending over 30% of their income just to keep a roof overhead.
Sources & References
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