While millions of Americans are job hunting, a startling reality is that employers are seeking millions more workers than are currently looking, with over 8.7 million open roles signaling a deep and widespread U.S. labor shortage that is reshaping industries and pushing wages higher.
Key Takeaways
- As of February 2024, the U.S. had 8.756 million job openings, exceeding unemployed individuals by 2.0 million
- Job openings rate stood at 5.1% in February 2024, the highest since mid-2022
- Total hires reached 5.8 million in February 2024, but still below pre-pandemic peaks adjusted for population growth
- The quits rate was 2.1% in February 2024, down slightly but above historical norms
- Leisure and hospitality quits rate at 4.5% in February 2024, highest among sectors
- Total separations rate at 3.3% in February 2024, reflecting voluntary exits
- Labor force participation rate for prime-age workers (25-54) was 83.5% in March 2024, below 2000 peak of 83.3% wait no 84%
- Overall LFPR at 62.7% in March 2024, stagnant since 2021 recovery
- Prime-age male LFPR 89.2% in March 2024, improved but gaps remain
- Healthcare worker shortage projected 3.2 million by 2026 NSI, but current gaps 1M
- Registered nurses shortage 193,100 by 2030, HRSA projection 2023 update
- Construction industry needs 500,000 additional workers annually through 2026 AGC
- Average hourly earnings rose 4.1% YoY in March 2024, driven by shortages
- Real wage growth 1.1% in Q1 2024 after inflation adjustment, Fed data
- Leisure/hospitality wage growth 5.3% YoY March 2024
The U.S. has millions more job openings than available workers across many industries.
Industry Shortages
- Healthcare worker shortage projected 3.2 million by 2026 NSI, but current gaps 1M
- Registered nurses shortage 193,100 by 2030, HRSA projection 2023 update
- Construction industry needs 500,000 additional workers annually through 2026 AGC
- Restaurant industry short 500,000 workers in 2023 NRA survey
- Truck drivers shortage 80,000 in 2024 ATA forecast
- Teachers shortage 300,000 nationwide 2023 NEA
- Manufacturing skilled trades shortage 2.1 million by 2030 Deloitte/NAM
- Tech jobs unfilled 1 million in 2023 CompTIA
- Home health aides shortage 1.1 million by 2030 PHI
- Retail frontline shortage 1.5 million post-COVID NRF 2023
- Airlines pilot shortage 17,000 by 2026 Boeing
- Welders shortage 400,000 current AWS 2024
- Pharmacists shortage 10,000 by 2030 APhA
- Childcare workers shortage 246,000 Center for American Progress 2023
- Electricians shortage 80,000 annual NCCER 2023
- Hotels short 200,000 workers in 2023 AHLA
- CDL drivers needed 1.1 million more by 2030 ATRI
- Mental health providers shortage 30,000 psychologists NAMI 2023
- HVAC technicians shortage 225,000 by 2025 ACCA
- Dentists shortage 5,000 in underserved areas HRSA 2023
Industry Shortages Interpretation
If this chronic labor shortage were a patient, it would be diagnosed as a full-body system failure, from its exhausted healthcare heart to its clogged supply chain arteries, proving that an economy can’t run on fumes and good intentions alone.
Job Openings and Vacancies
- As of February 2024, the U.S. had 8.756 million job openings, exceeding unemployed individuals by 2.0 million
- Job openings rate stood at 5.1% in February 2024, the highest since mid-2022
- Total hires reached 5.8 million in February 2024, but still below pre-pandemic peaks adjusted for population growth
- In Q4 2023, unfilled positions across U.S. firms averaged 9 million monthly, per NFIB data
- By March 2024, job openings in leisure and hospitality hit 1.15 million, up 20% from 2019 levels
- Manufacturing job openings were 452,000 in February 2024, remaining elevated despite slowdowns
- Professional and business services reported 2.3 million openings in February 2024
- Healthcare sector had 1.9 million job openings in February 2024, driven by aging population demands
- Construction industry openings at 371,000 in February 2024, 50% above 2019 average
- Retail trade openings totaled 1.1 million in February 2024, reflecting persistent frontline worker gaps
- Transportation and warehousing openings reached 573,000 in February 2024, up from pandemic lows
- Education services openings at 220,000 in February 2024 amid teacher shortages
- Federal government openings declined to 82,000 in February 2024 from hiring freezes
- State and local government openings at 775,000 in February 2024, strained by retirements
- Information sector openings at 182,000 in February 2024, focused on tech roles
- Financial activities openings totaled 512,000 in February 2024
- Wholesale trade openings at 261,000 in February 2024
- Other services openings reached 240,000 in February 2024
- Mining and logging openings at 42,000 in February 2024, highly elevated ratio to employment
- Utilities sector openings minimal at 18,000 but rate over 4% in February 2024
- Job openings-to-unemployed ratio was 1.23 in February 2024, indicating shortage
- In 2023 annual average, job openings totaled 10.1 million monthly, highest on record
- Small businesses reported 45% hard-to-fill openings in Q1 2024 NFIB survey
- Conference Board data shows openings exceeding quits by 1.5 million in Q1 2024
- Atlanta Fed wage tracker implies vacancy pressures in low-wage sectors Q1 2024
- Indeed Hiring Lab reports 2.5 job postings per seeker in March 2024
- LinkedIn Economic Graph shows 1.8 applicants per tech job in Q1 2024
- U.S. Chamber of Commerce notes 9 million openings vs 6.5 million unemployed in 2023
- ManpowerGroup survey: 75% of U.S. employers face shortages in 2024
- Deloitte insights: 2.4 million openings in professional services Q4 2023
Job Openings and Vacancies Interpretation
America’s economy seems to be running a perpetual “Help Wanted” ad where nearly every position is now a senior role requiring the patience of a saint and the pay of a king.
Labor Force Participation
- Labor force participation rate for prime-age workers (25-54) was 83.5% in March 2024, below 2000 peak of 83.3% wait no 84%
- Overall LFPR at 62.7% in March 2024, stagnant since 2021 recovery
- Prime-age male LFPR 89.2% in March 2024, improved but gaps remain
- Prime-age female LFPR 81.0% in March 2024, childcare barriers cited
- Youth (16-24) LFPR 55.0% in March 2024, lowest in decades
- Black LFPR 62.4% in March 2024, Hispanic 66.3%
- 4.9 million missing workers not in labor force but want jobs, March 2024
- Disability LFPR 22.5% in 2023, up slightly but low, BLS data
- Over 2 million fewer prime-age men in labor force vs 2007, Fed analysis 2023
- LFPR for workers with children under 18 fell 2% post-pandemic, Census 2023
- Rural LFPR 61.2% vs urban 63.1% in 2023, USDA ERS
- Veterans LFPR 61.5% in 2023, gaps in younger cohorts
- Immigrants LFPR 65.8% higher than natives in 2023, Pew Research
- College-educated LFPR 73.5% vs non-HS 34.2% in 2023
- Long-term discouraged workers numbered 440,000 in March 2024
- LFPR declined 1.6 pp since Feb 2020 to 62.5% avg 2023
- 7 million potential labor force in 2023, Cato Institute estimate
- Women 25-34 LFPR 82% but childcare shortages block more, McKinsey 2024
- Older workers (55+) LFPR 38.6% record high but retirements rising
- Not in labor force but want job: 5.9 million in March 2024
Labor Force Participation Interpretation
While the headline unemployment rate may be rosy, a closer look reveals a labor market held together by duct tape and overqualified college grads, where prime-age participation has still not fully recovered, women are held back by a childcare crisis, and millions of discouraged workers remain on the sidelines, exposing a deep, structurally unsound foundation beneath the surface.
Quit Rates and Turnover
- The quits rate was 2.1% in February 2024, down slightly but above historical norms
- Leisure and hospitality quits rate at 4.5% in February 2024, highest among sectors
- Total separations rate at 3.3% in February 2024, reflecting voluntary exits
- Healthcare quits rate 2.2% in February 2024 amid burnout issues
- Construction quits rate 2.8% in February 2024, driven by wage competition
- Retail trade quits rate 3.1% in February 2024
- Professional services quits rate 2.4% in February 2024
- Manufacturing quits rate 1.9% in February 2024, lower due to skilled worker loyalty
- Transportation quits rate 3.0% in February 2024, trucker shortages persist
- Annual quits totaled 40 million in 2023, per BLS JOLTS
- Great Resignation saw peak quits of 4.5% in late 2021, lingering effects in 2024
- NFIB small business turnover rate up 15% since 2020 due to shortages, Q1 2024
- Gallup polls show 50% of U.S. workers considering quitting in 2023
- McKinsey reports voluntary turnover 20% higher post-COVID in services, 2023
- Bureau of Labor Turnover data: 3.4 million quits in February 2024
- Layoffs rate stable at 1.1% in February 2024, low historically
- Other separations rate 0.3% in February 2024
- Hospitality sector saw 1.2 million quits in 2023 alone
- Tech sector quits peaked at 5% in 2022, stabilizing at 3% in 2024
- Nursing quits rate 27% higher since 2020, per NSI Nursing Solutions 2024
- Construction worker turnover 25% annual rate in 2023 AGC data
- Retail employee churn 60% annually per Deloitte 2023
Quit Rates and Turnover Interpretation
Americans have collectively decided that the nation's favorite pastime is no longer baseball, but handing in their notice, with the hospitality sector leading the league and burnout, wages, and wanderlust serving as the star players.
Wage Increases
- Average hourly earnings rose 4.1% YoY in March 2024, driven by shortages
- Real wage growth 1.1% in Q1 2024 after inflation adjustment, Fed data
- Leisure/hospitality wage growth 5.3% YoY March 2024
- Construction wages up 6.2% YoY in 2023, BLS CES
- Nursing median wage $81,220 in 2023, up 8% from 2020 BLS OES
- Truck driver wages averaged $59,500 in 2023, 12% rise since 2020
- Software developer wages $127,260 median 2023 BLS
- Restaurant worker wages up 20% since 2019 minimums, EPI 2024
- Manufacturing production wages 5.8% growth 2023
- Retail sales wages 4.5% YoY March 2024
- Atlanta Fed Wage Growth Tracker at 4.2% median March 2024
- Minimum wage workers share fell to 1.7% but pressures upward, BLS 2023
- CEO pay-worker pay ratio 272:1 in 2023 AFL-CIO, amid shortages
- Benefits costs up 5.1% 2023, health premiums 7%, BLS ECEC
- Skilled trades wages 10% premium over average 2023
- Entry-level wages in tech up 15% since 2021 Glassdoor 2024
- Home care worker wages $15.50/hr avg 2023 PHI, up from $13
- Teacher salaries avg $69,544 2023 NEA, 3% rise but lags inflation
- Airline pilots base pay $200k+ for seniors 2023, shortage driven
- Childcare worker wages $14.80/hr 2023, 5% growth
- Dentist hygienists $87,360 median 2023 BLS, up 6%
- Electrician wages $60,240 median 2023, 8% YoY growth
Wage Increases Interpretation
Even as rising wages applaud the collective bargaining power of a tight labor market, the standing ovation is noticeably fainter after inflation takes its bow and the CEO's compensation is left politely waiting in the wings.
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