While the housing market has shown a remarkable resilience with home prices climbing from Seattle to Miami, many prospective buyers are now grappling with record-high mortgage payments and a sharp decline in affordability that could reshape homeownership dreams for an entire generation.
Key Takeaways
- In the United States, the median sales price of existing single-family homes was $389,800 in 2023, marking a 5.7% increase from 2022.
- The average home price in California reached $803,500 in Q2 2024, up 4.2% year-over-year.
- Nationally, U.S. home values increased by 5.1% in the past year to a typical value of $368,721 as of July 2024.
- The U.S. saw 2.3 million existing home sales in 2023, down 19% from 2022.
- In Q2 2024, U.S. existing-home sales totaled 3.97 million units at a seasonally adjusted annual rate.
- Florida recorded 189,000 existing home sales in 2023.
- U.S. active listings led to 3.8 months' supply in June 2024.
- National inventory of existing homes rose to 1.28 million units in June 2024.
- New home inventory stood at 481,000 units in June 2024, 8.6 months supply.
- U.S. homeownership rate was 65.7% in Q1 2024.
- Millennial homeownership rate reached 53.3% in 2023.
- Black homeownership rate stood at 44.1% in 2023.
- Average 30-year fixed mortgage rate was 6.95% in June 2024.
- U.S. mortgage debt outstanding reached $12.5 trillion in Q1 2024.
- Homebuyer affordability index fell to 98.1 in Q2 2024.
Home prices are rising across America despite a sharp drop in sales.
Home Prices
- In the United States, the median sales price of existing single-family homes was $389,800 in 2023, marking a 5.7% increase from 2022.
- The average home price in California reached $803,500 in Q2 2024, up 4.2% year-over-year.
- Nationally, U.S. home values increased by 5.1% in the past year to a typical value of $368,721 as of July 2024.
- In New York City, the median home sale price hit $1,095,000 in Q1 2024, a 7.8% rise from the previous year.
- The U.S. median home price per square foot was $237 in May 2024.
- Texas median home price climbed to $335,000 in June 2024, reflecting 2.1% annual growth.
- Florida's statewide median single-family home price was $415,000 in Q2 2024, up 5.3% YoY.
- In Atlanta, GA, median home prices rose 3.9% to $415,000 in July 2024.
- U.S. luxury home prices (top 5%) averaged $2.1 million in 2023.
- Phoenix, AZ saw median home prices increase to $445,000 in Q2 2024, up 4.7%.
- The national Case-Shiller Home Price Index rose 6.2% in May 2024 from the prior year.
- Median condo price in Miami was $450,000 in June 2024, surging 8.2% YoY.
- U.S. home price growth slowed to 4.8% YoY in June 2024.
- Seattle's median home price hit $850,000 in Q2 2024, up 6.1%.
- In 2023, the average U.S. new home price was $511,100.
- Denver, CO median sales price reached $595,000 in July 2024.
- National median price for townhomes was $345,000 in Q1 2024.
- Las Vegas median home price climbed to $435,000 in June 2024, +3.5% YoY.
- U.S. home prices in the Midwest rose 5.9% YoY to median $280,000 in Q2 2024.
- Boston's median single-family home price was $925,000 in Q2 2024.
- In 2022, U.S. median existing-home price peaked at $397,600.
- Portland, OR median price increased to $535,000 in July 2024.
- National average price per square foot for new homes was $160 in 2023.
- Austin, TX saw median prices drop 1.2% to $535,000 in Q2 2024.
- U.S. starter home median price was $233,400 in 2023.
- Chicago median home price rose to $340,000 in June 2024.
- Northeast U.S. median home price growth was 7.2% YoY in Q1 2024.
- San Francisco median sale price was $1.35 million in Q2 2024.
- U.S. median manufactured home price was $147,000 in 2023.
- Tampa, FL median price hit $405,000 in July 2024, up 5.8%.
Home Prices Interpretation
The national housing market, stubbornly high and climbing everywhere from New York’s seven-figure milestones to Atlanta’s $415,000 median, is basically telling first-time buyers to bring a suitcase of cash and a stiff drink—preferably to the Midwest, where the median is still (relatively) a bargain at $280,000.
Homeownership Rates
- U.S. homeownership rate was 65.7% in Q1 2024.
- Millennial homeownership rate reached 53.3% in 2023.
- Black homeownership rate stood at 44.1% in 2023.
- Hispanic homeownership increased to 49.1% in Q1 2024.
- First-time buyer share was 32% of purchases in 2023.
- U.S. household formation drove ownership to 82.3 million owner households in 2023.
- Gen Z homeownership rate hit 26.4% in 2023.
- Suburban homeownership rate was 70.2% in 2023.
- Repeat buyers accounted for 68% of 2023 purchases.
- Asian American homeownership rate was 63.1% in 2023.
- Vacant ownership rate for seasonal homes was 12.5% in 2023.
- Baby Boomer ownership rate at 77.2% in 2023.
- Rural homeownership rate reached 80.1% in Q1 2024.
- Single women homeownership rate was 36.1% in 2023.
- White non-Hispanic ownership at 73.6% in 2023.
- Married couples owned 63% of homes in 2023.
- Urban homeownership rate was 52.4% in 2023.
- Veterans' homeownership rate hit 72.3% in 2023.
- Empty-nester ownership increased to 28% of households in 2023.
- Under-35 homeownership rate was 38.2% in Q1 2024.
- Female-headed households ownership at 55.4% in 2023.
- 35-44 age group ownership rate was 67.8% in 2023.
- Northeast homeownership rate dipped to 63.9% in Q1 2024.
Homeownership Rates Interpretation
America’s housing story is one where those who have owned, keep owning, while nearly everyone else—from millennials and Gen Z to communities of color—is still figuring out how to grab a key to a kingdom dominated by Boomers, suburbs, and married couples.
Housing Inventory
- U.S. active listings led to 3.8 months' supply in June 2024.
- National inventory of existing homes rose to 1.28 million units in June 2024.
- New home inventory stood at 481,000 units in June 2024, 8.6 months supply.
- Florida's active listings increased 25% YoY to 200,000 in Q2 2024.
- U.S. months' supply of inventory hit 4.1 months in June 2024.
- California unsold inventory ratio was 2.8 months in June 2024.
- National new listings surged 10% YoY in Q2 2024.
- Texas had 120,000 active listings in July 2024.
- Under-construction new homes comprised 28% of inventory in Q2 2024.
- Atlanta's inventory reached 18,000 homes in July 2024.
- Completed new home inventory was 109,000 units in June 2024.
- Phoenix active listings up 40% YoY to 12,000 in Q2 2024.
- U.S. shadow inventory estimated at 600,000 homes in 2024.
- Miami inventory supply rose to 7.2 months in June 2024.
- Seattle listings increased 35% to 6,500 active in July 2024.
- Multifamily under construction hit record 970,000 units in Q1 2024.
- Denver's months of supply reached 4.5 in Q2 2024.
- National vacant for-sale inventory was 890,000 in Q1 2024.
- Las Vegas inventory up 50% to 7,200 listings in June 2024.
- Midwest inventory supply was 5.2 months in June 2024.
- Boston active listings grew 20% to 3,200 in Q2 2024.
- Pending listings nationally rose 12% YoY in July 2024.
- Portland inventory hit 4.8 months supply in July 2024.
- South region inventory increased to 480,000 units in Q2 2024.
- Austin listings surged 30% to 9,000 in June 2024.
Housing Inventory Interpretation
While the national housing market is finally exhaling with more options, the recovery is a fickle and uneven beast, as seen in California's anemic 2.8-month supply versus Miami's leisurely 7.2-month marketplace, all while a tsunami of nearly a million new multifamily units looms in the construction pipeline.
Mortgage Rates
- Average 30-year fixed mortgage rate was 6.95% in June 2024.
- U.S. mortgage debt outstanding reached $12.5 trillion in Q1 2024.
- Homebuyer affordability index fell to 98.1 in Q2 2024.
- FHA loan average rate was 6.72% in July 2024.
- 15-year fixed mortgage averaged 6.22% in June 2024.
- Mortgage applications dropped 26% YoY in June 2024.
- Average debt-to-income ratio for buyers was 36% in 2023.
- Jumbo loan rates hit 7.15% in Q2 2024.
- Share of cash purchases was 28% in Q2 2024.
- ARM rates averaged 7.05% in June 2024.
- Median down payment for first-time buyers was 8% in 2023.
- Mortgage delinquency rate was 3.98% in Q1 2024.
- Housing affordability index for median family was 102.3 in Q1 2024.
- VA loan rates averaged 6.68% in July 2024.
- Refinance share of applications was 35.4% in June 2024.
- Median FICO score for mortgages was 758 in Q1 2024.
- Serious delinquency rate dropped to 0.81% in Q1 2024.
- Share of adjustable-rate mortgages was 7.2% in Q1 2024.
- Average loan-to-value ratio was 80% for purchases in 2023.
- Foreclosure starts rate was 0.15% in Q2 2024.
- Median monthly mortgage payment hit $2,217 in June 2024.
- Conforming loan limit increased to $766,550 in 2024.
- Buyer's remorse affected 82% due to high rates in 2024 survey.
- GSE share of mortgage originations was 62% in 2023.
- Median affordability payment was $1,945 for median home in Q2 2024.
Mortgage Rates Interpretation
With mortgage rates stubbornly high, a staggering debt pile looming, and buyers' wallets turning anemic, the American dream of homeownership is being priced into a state of collective, regret-filled arithmetic.
Sales Volume
- The U.S. saw 2.3 million existing home sales in 2023, down 19% from 2022.
- In Q2 2024, U.S. existing-home sales totaled 3.97 million units at a seasonally adjusted annual rate.
- Florida recorded 189,000 existing home sales in 2023.
- National new home sales reached 668,000 units in 2023.
- California home sales volume fell 20% YoY to 280,000 in 2023.
- Pending home sales index dropped to 71.5 in June 2024.
- Texas saw 347,000 home sales in 2023.
- U.S. condo sales totaled 465,000 units in 2023.
- Atlanta metro area had 48,000 home sales in Q2 2024.
- Existing single-family home sales were 4.1 million in 2023.
- Phoenix sales volume declined 10% to 72,000 homes in 2023.
- National homes sold in June 2024: 3.89 million seasonally adjusted annual rate.
- Miami-Fort Lauderdale sales hit 92,000 in 2023.
- U.S. total home sales (existing + new) were 5.7 million in 2023.
- Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue sales volume was 62,000 in 2023.
- Co-ops and condos sales fell 15% to 210,000 units nationally in 2023.
- Denver-Aurora-Lakewood recorded 52,000 sales in 2023.
- Year-over-year, U.S. home sales dropped 18.2% in June 2024.
- Las Vegas-Henderson-Paradise sales totaled 38,000 in 2023.
- Midwest region sales were 1.1 million units in 2023.
- Boston-Cambridge-Newton sales volume: 28,000 in 2023.
- New single-family home sales rate was 646,000 in June 2024 SAAR.
- Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro sales: 22,000 in 2023.
- South region dominated with 2.1 million sales in 2023.
- Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown sales fell to 42,000 in 2023.
Sales Volume Interpretation
The housing market stumbled through 2023 like a party everyone left early, with sales falling sharply nationwide as high mortgage rates and low inventory left both buyers and sellers sitting on their hands.
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