Hold on to your house keys, because despite a national median home price that's now climbed to over $400,000 and mortgage rates hovering near 7%, the 2024 real estate market is telling a complex story of cooling demand, rising inventory, and shifting affordability that varies dramatically from coast to coast.
Key Takeaways
- The median sales price of existing single-family homes, condos, and co-ops in the US reached $417,700 in April 2024, up 5.7% from April 2023
- US national median home price hit $403,700 in Q1 2024, marking a 4.2% year-over-year increase according to Zillow data
- Average home value in the US stood at $358,064 as of May 2024, reflecting a 5.2% rise over the past year per Zillow
- Total US single-family homes for sale inventory was 447,000 units at end of April 2024, up 16.6% from March
- Existing-home inventory rose to 1.37 million units in April 2024, a 20.8% increase from March
- New single-family homes for sale totaled 481,000 in April 2024, up 9.7% YoY
- Average 30-year fixed mortgage rate was 6.99% as of May 31, 2024
- 15-year fixed mortgage rates averaged 6.28% in week ending May 30, 2024
- Freddie Mac reports 30-year FRM at 6.95% for week ending May 30, 2024
- US national median rent was $1,967 in May 2024, up 1.7% YoY per Apartment List
- Average apartment rent reached $1,704 in Q1 2024, rising 3.2% YoY per RentCafe
- Zillow observes typical rent at $2,000 in May 2024, flat YoY
- Homeownership rate among 25-34 year olds fell to 37.4% in 2023
- US millennial homeownership rate reached 52% in Q1 2024
- Gen Z (under 25) ownership at 25.9% in 2023 ACS
Home prices continue rising nationally even as higher mortgage rates slow sales.
Home Prices and Values
- The median sales price of existing single-family homes, condos, and co-ops in the US reached $417,700 in April 2024, up 5.7% from April 2023
- US national median home price hit $403,700 in Q1 2024, marking a 4.2% year-over-year increase according to Zillow data
- Average home value in the US stood at $358,064 as of May 2024, reflecting a 5.2% rise over the past year per Zillow
- Redfin reports the typical US home sold for $418,000 in May 2024, a 2.0% increase from last year
- Case-Shiller US National Home Price Index rose 5.7% year-over-year in March 2024
- Median home price in California reached $859,300 in Q1 2024, up 6.8% YoY
- New York metro area median home price was $670,000 in April 2024, increasing 8.2% from prior year
- Florida's median existing-home price climbed to $395,000 in March 2024, a 6.1% YoY gain
- Texas median home sales price hit $330,000 in Q1 2024, up 2.9% YoY per Texas A&M data
- Phoenix metro median home price reached $445,000 in May 2024, surging 4.7% YoY
- Seattle typical home value appreciated 7.1% YoY to $803,677 in May 2024
- Miami median sale price was $580,000 in April 2024, up 7.9% from last year
- Denver home prices averaged $570,000 in Q1 2024, with 3.2% YoY growth
- Atlanta median home price rose to $400,000 in March 2024, increasing 5.3% YoY
- Boston metro area saw median prices at $725,000 in Q1 2024, up 4.9% YoY
- Las Vegas median home price hit $430,000 in April 2024, a 5.6% YoY rise
- Portland OR typical home value was $528,496 in May 2024, up 4.1% YoY
- Charlotte NC median sales price reached $415,000 in Q1 2024, growing 6.4% YoY
- Nashville TN home prices averaged $450,000 in March 2024, with 7.2% YoY increase
- Austin TX median price fell to $485,000 in May 2024, down 1.2% YoY after years of gains
- San Francisco Bay Area median home price was $1,295,000 in April 2024, up 10.2% YoY
- Chicago median existing-home price rose to $320,000 in Q1 2024, a 7.8% YoY gain
- Philadelphia PA typical home sold for $285,000 in March 2024, up 5.9% YoY
- Washington DC metro median price hit $620,000 in April 2024, increasing 4.5% YoY
- Detroit MI saw median home prices at $220,000 in Q1 2024, up 8.3% YoY
- US luxury home prices (top 5%) rose 7.4% YoY to median $2.1 million in Q1 2024
- Starter homes (under $300k) median price increased 4.8% YoY to $275,000 in May 2024
- Condo prices nationally averaged $355,000 in April 2024, up 3.9% YoY
- Single-family detached home median price was $425,000 in Q1 2024, rising 6.1% YoY
- US home price-to-income ratio reached 5.6 in Q1 2024, highest since 2007
Home Prices and Values Interpretation
Despite some regional fluctuations, the relentless national climb of home prices—now pushing affordability to its most precarious level since 2007—suggests the American Dream is not crashing but rather politely excusing itself from the budget of the average buyer.
Inventory and Sales
- Total US single-family homes for sale inventory was 447,000 units at end of April 2024, up 16.6% from March
- Existing-home inventory rose to 1.37 million units in April 2024, a 20.8% increase from March
- New single-family homes for sale totaled 481,000 in April 2024, up 9.7% YoY
- Months' supply of existing homes reached 4.3 months in April 2024, highest since July 2020
- Total housing inventory including pending sales was 4.0 months' supply in May 2024 per Redfin
- US pending home sales index fell 7.7% in April 2024 to 73.9
- Existing-home sales dropped 0.5% month-over-month to 4.14 million seasonally adjusted annual rate in April 2024
- New home sales rose 7.4% to 743,000 annual rate in April 2024
- Homes sold in under 30 days dropped to 28% of listings in May 2024, down from 50% last year
- National active listings increased 22% YoY to 900,000 in May 2024 per Realtor.com
- Seller's market share fell to 20% of US metros in Q1 2024 from 90% in 2022
- California active listings up 40% YoY to 150,000 in April 2024
- Florida new listings surged 15% YoY in Q1 2024, totaling 120,000
- Texas homes for sale inventory hit 4.5 months' supply in April 2024
- Phoenix inventory rose 50% YoY to 8,000 active listings in May 2024
- Seattle months' supply increased to 3.2 months in Q1 2024, up from 1.5 last year
- Miami pending sales down 12% YoY in April 2024 to 5,200
- Denver active listings climbed 30% YoY to 6,500 in March 2024
- Atlanta new home inventory reached 15,000 units in Q1 2024, up 25% YoY
- Boston sales volume fell 10% YoY to 2,100 homes in April 2024
- Las Vegas total listings up 28% YoY to 7,200 in May 2024
- Portland OR months' supply at 4.1 months in Q1 2024, highest in decade
- Charlotte NC pending contracts down 15% YoY in March 2024
- Nashville inventory rose to 4,500 active homes in April 2024, up 35% YoY
- Austin sales dropped 8% YoY to 2,800 homes in May 2024
- San Francisco listings up 45% YoY to 4,200 in Q1 2024
- Chicago months' supply hit 4.8 months in April 2024
- Philadelphia new listings increased 18% YoY to 9,000 in Q1 2024
- Washington DC sales volume down 5% to 3,500 in March 2024
- Detroit inventory surged 60% YoY to 12,000 listings in April 2024
Inventory and Sales Interpretation
The US housing market is finally taking a deep, sobering breath as inventory surges, sales slow, and buyers, at long last, get some breathing room—so sellers, maybe think twice before calling that avocado-green backsplash a "charming vintage feature."
Mortgage Rates and Financing
- Average 30-year fixed mortgage rate was 6.99% as of May 31, 2024
- 15-year fixed mortgage rates averaged 6.28% in week ending May 30, 2024
- Freddie Mac reports 30-year FRM at 6.95% for week ending May 30, 2024
- Mortgage applications fell 3.8% week-over-week in May 2024
- Share of homebuyers using cash reached 34% in Q1 2024, highest in years
- Average jumbo 30-year mortgage rate hit 7.12% in May 2024
- FHA 30-year rates averaged 7.02% as of late May 2024
- VA loan rates were 6.85% average in week of May 29, 2024
- Refinance share of applications dropped to 0.3% in May 2024, lowest on record
- Homebuyer affordability index fell to 98.1 in Q1 2024
- Monthly mortgage payment on median home rose to $2,220 in April 2024 at 7% rate
- ARM share of applications surged to 9% in Q1 2024 from 2% prior year
- California median mortgage payment hit $3,800 in Q1 2024
- Florida jumbo rates averaged 7.05% in May 2024
- Texas 30-year rates at 6.92% average week of May 30
- Phoenix FHA rates 6.98% in late May 2024
- Seattle VA rates 6.78% as of May 31
- Miami cash buyers 45% of sales in Q1 2024
- Denver affordability index at 75 in March 2024
- Atlanta ARM usage up 12% in Q1 2024
- Boston median payment $4,100 on typical home in April 2024
- Las Vegas refinance apps down 20% YoY in May 2024
- Portland OR 15-year rates 6.15% week ending May 30
- Charlotte NC payment-to-income ratio 38% in Q1 2024
- Nashville cash sales 28% in April 2024
- Austin jumbo rates 7.18% in May 2024
- San Francisco median payment $6,500 at current rates Q1 2024
- Chicago affordability 92 in April 2024
- Philadelphia FHA share 15% of loans in Q1 2024
- DC metro ARM rates averaged 6.45% in May 2024
- Detroit VA loan volume up 10% YoY in Q1 2024
Mortgage Rates and Financing Interpretation
This is a market screaming "I'm expensive!" in a voice so loud it’s driving buyers to either raid their mattresses for cash or desperately flirt with adjustable-rate mortgages just to get a seat at the table.
Regional and Demographic Trends
- Homeownership rate among 25-34 year olds fell to 37.4% in 2023
- US millennial homeownership rate reached 52% in Q1 2024
- Gen Z (under 25) ownership at 25.9% in 2023 ACS
- First-time buyers share of purchases dropped to 24% in 2024 per NAR
- Repeat buyers accounted for 76% of sales in 2024, highest on record
- Median buyer age rose to 56 in 2024, up from 49 in 2020
- 27% of buyers were born outside US in 2024 NAR survey
- Black homeownership rate 45.5% in Q4 2023
- Hispanic ownership rose to 49.1% in 2023
- Midwest homeownership highest at 70.9% in 2023
- Northeast ownership lowest at 64.2% in Q4 2023
- Sun Belt metros saw 15% of national migration in 2023
- NYC lost 50,000 residents to suburbs in 2023 per Census
- Florida gained 365,000 net domestic migrants in 2023
- Texas population growth led by 473,000 net gain in 2023
- Phoenix attracted 65,000 net migrants in 2023
- Seattle saw net outflow of 20,000 residents in 2023
- Miami gained 80,000 net international migrants in 2023
- Denver metro population up 1.8% in 2023 to 3 million
- Atlanta households grew 2.1% YoY in 2023
- Boston lost 15,000 young adults in 2023 migration
- Las Vegas population rose 2.5% to 2.3 million in 2023
- Portland OR net migration negative 10,000 in 2023
- Charlotte NC households up 3.2% in 2023
- Nashville gained 25,000 net migrants in 2023
- Austin TX population growth slowed to 1.5% in 2023 amid high costs
- San Francisco lost 65,000 residents in 2023
- Chicago metro households flat in 2023
- Philadelphia population declined 0.8% in 2023
- Washington DC gained 15,000 federal workers in 2023 migration
- Detroit MI homeownership among millennials at 48% in 2023
Regional and Demographic Trends Interpretation
The American dream of homeownership is increasingly looking like a suburban Sun Belt sequel, starring empty nesters, international newcomers, and Southern growth, while the original millennial and Gen Z cast members are still stuck in the rental spin-off, priced out of the script.
Rental Market
- US national median rent was $1,967 in May 2024, up 1.7% YoY per Apartment List
- Average apartment rent reached $1,704 in Q1 2024, rising 3.2% YoY per RentCafe
- Zillow observes typical rent at $2,000 in May 2024, flat YoY
- Vacancy rate for rental apartments fell to 6.6% in Q1 2024
- Rent growth slowed to 0.9% YoY nationally in May 2024 per Realtor.com
- Multifamily rent per unit averaged $1,686 in Q1 2024, up 2.1% YoY
- Share of renters spending over 30% income on rent rose to 49% in 2023 ACS data
- New apartment construction completions totaled 440,000 units in 2023
- California median rent hit $2,950 in May 2024, up 2.5% YoY
- New York City average rent $4,247 in May 2024, down 1.8% YoY
- Florida statewide median rent $2,100 in Q1 2024, rising 4.3% YoY
- Texas average apartment rent $1,450 in May 2024, up 1.2% YoY
- Phoenix metro rent $1,850 in April 2024, growth 3.1% YoY
- Seattle average rent fell to $2,100 in May 2024, down 4.5% YoY
- Miami rents averaged $2,750 in Q1 2024, up 6.2% YoY
- Denver median rent $1,950 in May 2024, flat YoY
- Atlanta average rent $1,720 in April 2024, up 2.8% YoY
- Boston vacancy rate 4.2% in Q1 2024
- Las Vegas rents $1,650 average in May 2024, growth 1.9% YoY
- Portland OR median rent $1,800 in Q1 2024, down 2.1% YoY
- Charlotte NC rents up 3.5% YoY to $1,650 in May 2024
- Nashville average rent $1,850 in April 2024, rising 4.1% YoY
- Austin TX rent growth slowed to 0.5% YoY at $1,700 median in May 2024
- San Francisco average rent $3,150 in Q1 2024, down 5.3% YoY
- Chicago rents $2,000 median in May 2024, up 1.5% YoY
- Philadelphia vacancy 6.8% in Q1 2024
- Washington DC average rent $2,400 in April 2024, growth 2.7% YoY
- Detroit MI rents rose 4.2% YoY to $1,350 in May 2024
Rental Market Interpretation
Despite a torrent of new apartments and a general cooling in rent hikes, the stubbornly high price to keep a roof overhead means nearly half the nation is now spending a third of their income just to stay put, proving that a renter's market is still a renter's burden.
Sources & References
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