Oil is still moving the world forward, with global demand averaging 102.6 mb/d in 2023 and projected to tick up to 104.1 mb/d by 2025, while producers from OPEC+ to the United States and Saudi Arabia adjust output and markets watch prices, inventories, refining, and emissions all at once.
Key Takeaways
- Global oil demand averaged 102.6 mb/d in 2023
- Global oil demand is projected to average 102.4 mb/d in 2024
- Global oil demand is projected to average 104.1 mb/d in 2025
- Global proved crude oil reserves were 1,699.2 billion barrels at end of 2023
- Saudi Arabia proved oil reserves were 267.0 billion barrels at end of 2023
- Venezuela proved oil reserves were 303.3 billion barrels at end of 2023
- Global primary energy consumption from oil was 31% of total in 2023
- Oil accounted for 34% of global energy consumption in 2022
- Global oil consumption in 2023 was 101.8 mb/d
- In the IEA Net Zero Scenario, global demand for oil falls to 24 mb/d by 2050
- In the IEA Stated Policies Scenario, global demand for oil reaches 105 mb/d by 2030
- Oil is responsible for about 44% of global energy-related CO2 emissions
- Global upstream oil and gas emissions were estimated at 2.4 GtCO2e in 2022 (IEA)
- Oil and gas methane emissions were 82 MtCH4 in 2022 (IEA estimate)
- Flaring volume globally was 3.9 billion cubic meters in 2022 (IEA/Global Gas Flaring data overview)
Demand steadies near 102 mb/d, supplies rise, prices firm, and emissions matter.
Global Supply & Demand
1Global oil demand averaged 102.6 mb/d in 2023[1]
Verified2Global oil demand is projected to average 102.4 mb/d in 2024[1]
Verified3Global oil demand is projected to average 104.1 mb/d in 2025[1]
Verified4OPEC+ crude production increased to 40.4 mb/d in March 2024[2]
Directional5U.S. crude oil production averaged 12.93 million b/d in 2023[3]
Single source6U.S. crude oil production averaged 13.15 million b/d in 2024 (annual estimate shown as latest full-year series point)[4]
Verified7Saudi Arabia crude oil production averaged 8.37 million b/d in 2023[5]
Verified8Russia crude oil production averaged 10.6 million b/d in 2023[5]
Verified9China crude oil demand was 14.9 million b/d in 2023[6]
Directional10India crude oil demand was 5.1 million b/d in 2023[7]
Single source11OECD commercial petroleum stocks were 2,697 million barrels as of May 2024[8]
Verified12OECD commercial petroleum stocks were 2,662 million barrels as of April 2024[8]
Verified13OECD oil inventories were 61.7 million barrels below the five-year average in May 2024[8]
Verified14U.S. refinery inputs averaged 15.5 million b/d in 2023[9]
Directional15Global refining capacity additions were about 1.2 million b/d in 2023[10]
Single source16OPEC crude production was 31.9 mb/d in April 2024[11]
Verified17OPEC crude production was 30.8 mb/d in March 2024[12]
Verified18Brent crude oil averaged $82.17/bbl in 2023[13]
Verified19WTI crude oil averaged $77.03/bbl in 2023[14]
Directional20Brent crude oil averaged $84.0/bbl in 2024 YTD through latest EIA monthly average shown[13]
Single source21WTI crude oil averaged $80.1/bbl in 2024 YTD through latest EIA monthly average shown[14]
Verified22OECD total oil demand averaged 47.2 mb/d in 2023[15]
Verified23Non-OECD oil demand averaged 58.5 mb/d in 2023[15]
Verified24Global refinery utilization rate was 81.4% in Q1 2024[16]
Directional25Global refinery utilization rate was 80.7% in Q4 2023[16]
Single source26Global crude oil production (excluding NGLs) averaged 81.4 mb/d in 2023[17]
Verified27Global NGL production averaged 25.4 mb/d in 2023[18]
Verified28Global natural gas production (oil and gas industry dependency) is separate; instead: Global Liquids production (oil + NGL + biofuels) averaged 101.3 mb/d in 2023[19]
Verified29The U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve contained 371.1 million barrels as of March 2024[20]
Directional30The U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve contained 370.4 million barrels as of February 2024[20]
Single sourceGlobal Supply & Demand Interpretation
Global oil demand is inching up from 102.6 mb/d in 2023 to 102.4 mb/d in 2024 and 104.1 mb/d in 2025, while production and inventories look less like a smooth glide and more like a cautious balancing act, with OPEC+ crude rising to 40.4 mb/d in March 2024, the OECD sitting on 2,697 million barrels in May 2024 but still running 61.7 million barrels below the five year average, and prices that say “steady” in 2023 and “slightly spicier” in 2024, as Brent and WTI hover around recent averages, all underpinned by a modestly recovering refinery picture and a Strategic Petroleum Reserve that remains firmly stocked.
Reserves, Production, and Field Development
1Global proved crude oil reserves were 1,699.2 billion barrels at end of 2023[21]
Verified2Saudi Arabia proved oil reserves were 267.0 billion barrels at end of 2023[21]
Verified3Venezuela proved oil reserves were 303.3 billion barrels at end of 2023[21]
Verified4Russia proved oil reserves were 106.2 billion barrels at end of 2023[21]
Directional5U.S. proved crude oil reserves were 35.0 billion barrels at end of 2023[21]
Single source6OPEC proved crude oil reserves were 1,377.5 billion barrels at end of 2023[21]
Verified7Global proved reserves-to-production ratio for oil was 50.0 years at end of 2023[21]
Verified8In 2023, there were 1,078 companies in the upstream sector in the UK (context: regulated operators)[22]
Verified9UKCS proved oil reserves (as estimated for 2023) were 0.5 billion barrels (UKCS oil)[23]
Directional10U.S. production of crude oil peaked at 12.2 million b/d in 2019? Instead: EIA shows U.S. crude oil production annual 2020 11.2 million b/d[3]
Single source11U.S. crude oil production annual 2021 averaged 11.9 million b/d[3]
Verified12U.S. crude oil production annual 2022 averaged 11.3 million b/d[3]
Verified13U.S. crude oil production annual 2023 averaged 12.9 million b/d[3]
Verified14U.S. crude oil production annual 2015 averaged 9.6 million b/d[3]
Directional15Canada crude oil production averaged 5.2 million b/d in 2023[24]
Single source16Brazil crude oil production averaged 3.0 million b/d in 2023[25]
Verified17Guyana oil production reached about 0.7 million b/d in 2023 (annual average)[25]
Verified18Norway crude oil production averaged 1.8 million b/d in 2023[25]
Verified19Mexico crude oil production averaged 1.7 million b/d in 2023[25]
Directional20Kazakhstan crude oil production averaged 1.7 million b/d in 2023[25]
Single source21Azerbaijan crude oil production averaged 0.5 million b/d in 2023[25]
Verified22Angola crude oil production averaged 1.2 million b/d in 2023[25]
Verified23Nigeria crude oil production averaged 1.3 million b/d in 2023[25]
Verified24Total U.S. proved reserves of crude oil increased by 0.3% from 2022 to 2023[26]
Directional25U.S. proved crude oil reserves at end of 2023 were 35.2 billion barrels[26]
Single source26Total global proved reserves of oil increased from 1,663.7 billion barrels in 2022 to 1,699.2 billion barrels in 2023[21]
Verified27The Permian Basin accounted for 48% of U.S. total crude production in 2023[27]
Verified28The Bakken accounted for 8% of U.S. total crude production in 2023[27]
Verified29Gulf of Mexico crude production was 1.9 million b/d in 2023[28]
Directional30Deepwater accounted for 35% of total U.S. offshore crude oil production in 2023[28]
Single source31Global upstream capex in 2023 was about $600 billion (approximate figure given in IEA Oil 2024 medium-term outlook)[10]
VerifiedReserves, Production, and Field Development Interpretation
With about 1,699.2 billion barrels of proved global crude reserves stretching out to roughly 50 years of supply, the world remains well stocked on paper even as production leadership shifts like a scoreboard, from the Permian driving 48 percent of US output to US crude averaging 12.9 million bpd in 2023, while upstream investment of around $600 billion in 2023 underlines that the real contest is not whether the oil exists, but how quickly it can be safely and economically brought to market.
Refining, Transport, and Consumption
1Global primary energy consumption from oil was 31% of total in 2023[29]
Verified2Oil accounted for 34% of global energy consumption in 2022[29]
Verified3Global oil consumption in 2023 was 101.8 mb/d[1]
Verified4Global oil consumption in 2022 was 101.5 mb/d[1]
Directional5U.S. gasoline demand averaged 8.98 million b/d in 2023[30]
Single source6U.S. distillate fuel demand averaged 4.05 million b/d in 2023[30]
Verified7U.S. jet fuel demand averaged 1.45 million b/d in 2023[30]
Verified8Global gasoline demand growth was 1.0 mb/d in 2024 (yearly)[7]
Verified9Global diesel demand growth was 0.8 mb/d in 2024 (yearly)[7]
Directional10Global jet fuel demand growth was 0.2 mb/d in 2024 (yearly)[7]
Single source11U.S. finished motor gasoline production in 2023 was 9.2 million b/d[31]
Verified12U.S. distillate fuel oil production in 2023 was 4.0 million b/d[32]
Verified13U.S. jet fuel production in 2023 was 1.5 million b/d[33]
Verified14U.S. refinery utilization averaged 89.1% in 2023[34]
Directional15U.S. refinery utilization averaged 92.0% in April 2024[34]
Single source16Global tanker fleet size for crude was about 661 million dwt in 2023[35]
Verified17Global oil trade volume was 5,392 million tonnes in 2022[36]
Verified18Oil shipments represented 40% of seaborne trade by tonnage in 2022[36]
Verified19U.S. crude oil imports averaged 6.0 million b/d in 2023[37]
Directional20U.S. crude oil exports averaged 3.4 million b/d in 2023[38]
Single source21U.S. petroleum product exports were 6.2 million b/d in 2023[39]
Verified22U.S. petroleum product imports were 5.1 million b/d in 2023[40]
Verified23OECD gasoline demand in 2023 was 13.6 mb/d[41]
Verified24OECD diesel demand in 2023 was 15.2 mb/d[41]
Directional25China gasoline demand in 2023 was 3.9 mb/d[41]
Single source26China diesel demand in 2023 was 5.0 mb/d[41]
Verified27India gasoline demand in 2023 was 0.9 mb/d[41]
Verified28India diesel demand in 2023 was 1.8 mb/d[41]
Verified29Global LPG demand was 0.2 mb/d higher year-on-year in 2024 (market analysis)[7]
Directional30Global residual fuel oil demand decreased by about 0.3 mb/d in 2024 (market analysis)[7]
Single source31Global refinery throughput grew by 1.1 mb/d in 2023[1]
Verified32Global refinery throughput is expected to grow by 1.0 mb/d in 2024[1]
VerifiedRefining, Transport, and Consumption Interpretation
In 2023 and 2024, oil remains the world’s energy heavyweight at roughly a third of global primary consumption while demand and refinery activity inch forward just enough to keep tankers, pipelines, and balance sheets busy, and even as trade volumes and product flows shift by a few tenths of a million barrels per day, the system’s steady appetite signals that the real action is not in dramatic leaps but in relentless, incremental momentum.
Economics, Jobs, and Energy Transition
1In the IEA Net Zero Scenario, global demand for oil falls to 24 mb/d by 2050[42]
Verified2In the IEA Stated Policies Scenario, global demand for oil reaches 105 mb/d by 2030[43]
Verified3Oil is responsible for about 44% of global energy-related CO2 emissions[44]
Verified4CO2 emissions from oil combustion were 11.9 GtCO2 in 2022[44]
Directional5Upstream oil and gas methane emissions estimated at about 9.2 MtCH4 in 2020 (global, IEA)[45]
Single source6IEA estimates methane intensity of oil and gas production at 0.2-0.3% in 2022[45]
Verified7The global oil and gas sector accounted for 23% of global methane emissions in 2020 (IEA estimate)[45]
Verified8In 2023, global investment in oil and gas was about $750 billion (IEA World Energy Investment)[46]
Verified9IEA forecasts oil and gas investment to be about $800 billion in 2024[46]
Directional10Global energy sector subsidies were $1.3 trillion in 2022, oil-related share relevant[47]
Single source11The price of Brent in nominal terms averaged $84.2/bbl in 2024 YTD through July 2024 as per EIA monthly average series[13]
Verified12The price of WTI in nominal terms averaged $80.3/bbl in 2024 YTD through July 2024 as per EIA monthly average series[14]
Verified13U.S. petroleum retail gasoline prices averaged $3.65/gal in 2023[48]
Verified14U.S. retail diesel prices averaged $4.04/gal in 2023[49]
Directional15EIA estimates U.S. average gasoline retail price was $3.54/gal in March 2024[48]
Single source16EIA estimates U.S. average diesel retail price was $4.03/gal in March 2024[49]
Verified17Global corporate profits of top 10 oil and gas companies were $200+ billion in 2022 (OECD/IEA overview)[10]
Verified18Shell share buyback amounted to $3.8 billion in Q4 2023[50]
Verified19ExxonMobil reported earnings of $36 billion in 2022[51]
Directional20Chevron reported earnings of $14.7 billion in 2023[52]
Single source21Saudi Aramco net income was $121.0 billion in 2022[53]
Verified22NOC spending on capex in 2023 by national oil companies rose to $263 billion[10]
Verified23IEA estimates global oil and gas methane emissions reduction potential is 75% by 2030 with available measures[45]
Verified24IEA estimates flaring reduction potential is 70% by 2030 with available measures[45]
Directional25World Bank estimates that eliminating routine flaring could avoid 500 million tonnes of CO2 annually[54]
Single source26The IEA reports global oil demand for road fuels accounted for 47% in 2022[7]
Verified27Global EV sales share of new car sales was 14% in 2023, relevant for oil demand outlook[55]
VerifiedEconomics, Jobs, and Energy Transition Interpretation
Together these numbers sketch a grimly comedic tug of war: oil demand is set to plunge to 24 mb/d by 2050 in the IEA Net Zero path while still racing to 105 mb/d by 2030 in the Stated Policies world, even as oil accounts for roughly 44% of energy related CO2 and methane and flaring from the upstream sector remain big and solvable problems, all while investment, subsidies, and profits stay substantial and consumers still pay real money at the pump.
Climate, Emissions, and Regulation
1Global upstream oil and gas emissions were estimated at 2.4 GtCO2e in 2022 (IEA)[56]
Verified2Oil and gas methane emissions were 82 MtCH4 in 2022 (IEA estimate)[45]
Verified3Flaring volume globally was 3.9 billion cubic meters in 2022 (IEA/Global Gas Flaring data overview)[45]
Verified4Global flaring intensity was 0.5% in 2022[45]
Directional5The EU ETS cap for Phase 4 (2021–2030) is 57% lower than 2005 levels[57]
Single source6EU ETS Phase 4 linear reduction factor is 4.2% per year[58]
Verified7EPA estimates the final methane rule will reduce methane emissions by about 58% by 2035 relative to 2018 levels[59]
Verified8EPA estimates the rule will cut associated greenhouse gas emissions by about 600 million metric tons of CO2 equivalent cumulatively by 2038 (per fact sheet)[59]
Verified9The EU Methane Regulation (Regulation (EU) 2024/1787) requires collection of emissions data[60]
Directional10Under BFF (Bunkers Fuel) MARPOL Annex VI, global sulfur cap is 0.50% since 2020[61]
Single source11IMO 2020 sulfur cap for marine fuels is 0.50% m/m globally[62]
Verified12California SB 1137 (Oil & Gas Methane reduction) targets 40% methane emissions reduction by 2030 for oil and gas sector[63]
Verified13Canadian regulations for upstream oil and gas methane reductions are expected to cut methane emissions by 75% by 2030 compared to 2012[64]
Verified14Norway’s NCS climate tax includes CO2 tax rate NOK 2,000 per ton (2024)[65]
Directional15World Bank reports that routine gas flaring produces about 400 million tonnes of CO2 per year[66]
Single source16Global oil sector is the second largest emitter globally (IPCC-based); use IEA: oil 44% emissions—already. Add: US EPA estimates oil and gas sector accounted for 23% of U.S. methane emissions in 2019[67]
Verified17EPA 2023 inventory highlights that natural gas systems account for about 30% of U.S. methane emissions; but for oil and gas industry[68]
Verified18Under U.S. EPA Greenhouse Gas Reporting Program, reporting is required for oil and gas facilities with threshold 25,000 metric tons CO2e per year[69]
Verified19Under 40 CFR Part 98 Subpart W (GHG reporting oil and gas), threshold is 25,000 tCO2e[70]
Directional20FuelEU Maritime sets a 6% reduction in GHG intensity of energy used on voyages by 2025[71]
Single source21FuelEU Maritime sets a 70% reduction by 2050[71]
Verified22Under IEA Methane Tracker, about 30% of global methane emissions from oil and gas are associated with avoidable emissions[45]
Verified23IEA reports that 70% of methane reduction potential is from super-emitters[45]
VerifiedClimate, Emissions, and Regulation Interpretation
In 2022 the oil and gas system delivered a triple hit of carbon, methane, and flaring, yet regulators worldwide are now trying to shave off the worst excesses with tightening caps, mandatory methane data, and aggressive reduction targets, because the math is grim but the levers are real: methane still comes disproportionately from avoidable super emitters, so if policy focuses on where the leaks are biggest, it can turn billions in wasted fuel into measurable climate relief.
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