Pancreatic cancer has an age-adjusted US mortality rate of 10.9 per 100,000 people. Five-year survival for resected patients with negative margins is 30 percent, compared to just 13 percent with positive margins. Treatment intensity also creates a wide gap, with median overall survival for metastatic disease ranging from 3 months with best supportive care to over 11 months with combination chemotherapy.
Key Takeaways
- The overall age-adjusted mortality rate for pancreatic cancer in the US is about 10.9 per 100,000 (SEER age-adjusted rate, latest available)
- There were 495,000 new pancreatic cancer cases worldwide in 2020 (GLOBOCAN 2020 estimate)
- In a national US analysis, 74% of pancreatic cancer patients are treated at hospitals with radiation oncology services available (treatment access metric)
- R0 resection is associated with improved survival; median OS is commonly reported around 20–40 months for R0 vs 10–25 months for R1/R2 in surgical series (reviewed ranges)
- The proportion of pancreatic cancer patients who receive systemic chemotherapy is reported at roughly 50–70% depending on stage in US practice (SEER-Medicare/NCDB analyses)
- In randomized trials, the median OS benefit of combination chemo over gemcitabine alone is frequently in the 1–3 month range (meta-analysis of regimens reporting OS differentials)
- In a large pooled analysis, the 5-year survival for patients with resected pancreatic cancer with negative margins was 30% vs 13% with positive margins (panel meta-analysis)
- The median OS for patients with metastatic pancreatic cancer receiving best supportive care is about 3–6 months in contemporary reviews
- In the PRODIGE 4/ACCORD 11 trial, median OS was 54.4 months for patients with resected pancreatic cancer treated with gemcitabine-based chemotherapy vs 35.5 months in the control arm (hazard ratio provided in trial report)
- Approximately 55% of pancreatic cancer is pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) histology among exocrine pancreatic cancers (pathology distribution reported in major reviews)
- BRCA1/2 and other homologous recombination repair gene alterations occur in about 15% of patients with pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (meta-analysis estimate)
- Germline mutations are found in about 10% of patients with pancreatic cancer (systematic review estimate)
Pancreatic cancer outcomes remain challenging, but resection with negative margins and effective chemo can markedly improve survival.
Related reading
01 · Category
Incidence & Mortality4 stats
01
The overall age-adjusted mortality rate for pancreatic cancer in the US is about 10.9 per 100,000 (SEER age-adjusted rate, latest available)
02
There were 495,000 new pancreatic cancer cases worldwide in 2020 (GLOBOCAN 2020 estimate)
03
In a national US analysis, 74% of pancreatic cancer patients are treated at hospitals with radiation oncology services available (treatment access metric)
04
US mortality rate for pancreatic cancer is estimated at 13.9 per 100,000 people in 2024 (ACS projections)
Interpretation
Incidence & Mortality Interpretation
From an incidence and mortality perspective, pancreatic cancer remains highly lethal with an age adjusted US mortality rate of 10.9 per 100,000 and an even higher projected rate of 13.9 per 100,000 in 2024, alongside a massive global burden of about 495,000 new cases in 2020.
02 · Category
Treatment Outcomes16 stats
01
R0 resection is associated with improved survival; median OS is commonly reported around 20–40 months for R0 vs 10–25 months for R1/R2 in surgical series (reviewed ranges)
02
The proportion of pancreatic cancer patients who receive systemic chemotherapy is reported at roughly 50–70% depending on stage in US practice (SEER-Medicare/NCDB analyses)
03
In randomized trials, the median OS benefit of combination chemo over gemcitabine alone is frequently in the 1–3 month range (meta-analysis of regimens reporting OS differentials)
04
FOLFIRINOX vs gemcitabine in metastatic PDAC improved median OS to 11.1 months from 6.8 months (median OS reported)
05
In the adjuvant trial of FOLFIRINOX, 4-year overall survival was about 43% (trial long-term survival landmark)
06
In CAPOX (capecitabine plus oxaliplatin) vs gemcitabine-based therapy (adjuvant/combined comparisons) typical 2-year DFS improves by several months depending on regimen (meta-analysis reporting absolute DFS differences)
07
For metastatic PDAC with germline BRCA mutations, median OS with PARP inhibitor rucaparib was 20.1 months in pooled analysis (reported in trial/pivotal publication)
08
In the POLO trial, 24-month PFS was 24% with olaparib vs 0% with placebo
09
In the KEYNOTE-158/early pancreatic evidence, objective response rate to pembrolizumab in MSI-H/dMMR solid tumors includes pancreatic cancer patients with MSI-H; MSI-H tumors have higher response rates than MSS (trial response rates reported overall)
10
The median OS for patients with stage III (locally advanced) disease treated with FOLFIRINOX is reported around 13–16 months (trial/meta-analytic figure)
11
In a phase III trial, overall response rate (ORR) for targeted therapy with TRK inhibitor larotrectinib in NTRK fusion cancers is 75% across adults and children (includes pancreatic cancer among tumor types in trial)
12
Median overall survival in pancreatic cancer patients with perineural invasion is significantly worse (often ~1 year) vs without PNI (often ~2+ years) in cohort studies (reported hazard ratios in reviews)
13
In a large cohort study, lymph node metastasis presence reduced 5-year survival from about 30% to about 15% (reported in surgical pathology outcome study)
14
For unresectable locally advanced pancreatic cancer receiving stereotactic body radiotherapy (SBRT), pooled median OS was about 12–16 months (systematic review)
15
For resected pancreatic cancer after neoadjuvant therapy, pathologic complete response rates are typically below 10% (reported in neoadjuvant review meta-analysis)
16
Adjuvant chemotherapy use after resection increased to about 60–80% in recent US cohorts (NCDB trends report)
Interpretation
Treatment Outcomes Interpretation
Across treatment outcomes in pancreatic cancer, achieving an R0 resection is linked to notably better survival with median overall survival around 20 to 40 months versus 10 to 25 months for R1 or R2, and systemic chemotherapy advances outcomes further such as FOLFIRINOX improving median OS to 11.1 months from 6.8 months while an adjuvant FOLFIRINOX trial reports about 43 percent 4-year overall survival.
More related reading
03 · Category
Survival By Stage11 stats
01
In a large pooled analysis, the 5-year survival for patients with resected pancreatic cancer with negative margins was 30% vs 13% with positive margins (panel meta-analysis)
02
The median OS for patients with metastatic pancreatic cancer receiving best supportive care is about 3–6 months in contemporary reviews
03
In the PRODIGE 4/ACCORD 11 trial, median OS was 54.4 months for patients with resected pancreatic cancer treated with gemcitabine-based chemotherapy vs 35.5 months in the control arm (hazard ratio provided in trial report)
04
In the ESPAC-4 trial, median OS was 6.1 months with gemcitabine alone vs 6.9 months with gemcitabine plus erlotinib in metastatic pancreatic cancer (reported hazard ratio and medians)
05
In the MPACT trial, median progression-free survival (PFS) was 5.5 months with nab-paclitaxel plus gemcitabine vs 3.7 months with gemcitabine
06
For locally advanced pancreatic cancer, conversion-to-resection studies report median OS often exceeding 20 months when downstaging is successful (meta-analytic range in review)
07
In the NAPOLI-1 trial, median OS was 4.2 months in the control arm
08
In the LAPACT trial, 5-year survival was 18% in the chemoradiotherapy with neoadjuvant FOLFIRINOX group compared with 13% in the gemcitabine-based group (reported long-term outcome)
09
For metastatic pancreatic cancer, response rate to standard chemotherapy is commonly below 30% in trials (reviewed across regimens with measured objective response rates)
10
In the mFOLFIRINOX vs gemcitabine trial subgroup, median OS improved to 11.1 months from 6.8 months (reported median OS)
11
In the CheckMate 577 trial, disease-free survival was 22.6 months with nivolumab vs 11.1 months with placebo after chemoradiotherapy (recurrence-free survival metric)
Interpretation
Survival By Stage Interpretation
Across the “Survival By Stage” spectrum, survival drops sharply from about 30% 5-year survival with resected, margin-negative disease to only around 3 to 6 months median survival for metastatic cases receiving best supportive care, with trials showing median overall survival of roughly 6.1 to 6.9 months in metastatic settings.
04 · Category
Prognostic Biomarkers13 stats
01
Approximately 55% of pancreatic cancer is pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) histology among exocrine pancreatic cancers (pathology distribution reported in major reviews)
02
BRCA1/2 and other homologous recombination repair gene alterations occur in about 15% of patients with pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (meta-analysis estimate)
03
Germline mutations are found in about 10% of patients with pancreatic cancer (systematic review estimate)
04
MSI-H or dMMR occurs in about 1–2% of pancreatic cancer cases (systematic review)
05
Circulating CA19-9 levels decrease after effective therapy; a post-treatment CA19-9 normalization is associated with better survival in cohort studies (review reported effect size: HR)
06
A CA19-9 decline of at least 20% after treatment is associated with improved outcomes vs less decline in metastatic PDAC studies (cohort threshold reported)
07
In the metastatic cohort studies, CA19-9 greater than 1000 U/mL is associated with worse survival compared with ≤1000 U/mL (median OS reported)
08
Presence of KRAS mutations is found in about 90% of pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma tumors (reviewed frequency)
09
CDKN2A (p16) alterations occur in about 40–60% of pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma tumors (TCGA/review frequency)
10
Tumor mutational burden (TMB) high status occurs in about 2–3% of pancreatic cancer cases (reviewed prevalence of high TMB)
11
NTRK gene fusions occur in approximately 0.2% of solid tumors; among pancreatic cancers they are rare but actionable when present (frequency estimate from pooled analysis)
12
Approximately 15% of pancreatic cancer patients have actionable alterations in DNA repair genes (BRCA1/2 and others) (next-generation sequencing cohort meta-analysis)
13
PD-L1 positivity rates in pancreatic cancer are reported around 10–30% depending on assay and cutoff (systematic review of immunohistochemistry positivity)
Interpretation
Prognostic Biomarkers Interpretation
Across prognostic biomarkers in pancreatic cancer, the most consistent signal is that treatment-linked changes in markers matter, with about 20% CA19-9 declines and normalization after therapy tied to better survival, while established genetic and molecular prognostic subgroups are much less frequent, such as BRCA1/2 or homologous recombination repair alterations at around 15% and MSI-H or dMMR at only about 1–2%.
report visual · Comparison
Pancreatic cancer: burden and outcomes snapshot
Mortality and survival vary substantially by geography and clinical status (e.g., resection margins).
The overall age-adjusted mortality rate for pancreatic cancer in the US is about 10.9 per 100,000 (SEER age-adjusted rat100,000
US mortality rate for pancreatic cancer is estimated at 13.9 per 100,000 people in 2024 (ACS projections)
100,000
In a large pooled analysis, the 5-year survival for patients with resected pancreatic cancer with negative margins was 3
30%
source-verifiedseer.cancer.gov · cancer.org · ncbi.nlm.nih.gov2024
Reference
Cite This Report
This report is designed to be cited. We maintain stable URLs and versioned verification dates. Copy the format appropriate for your publication below.
APA
Alexander Schmidt. (2026, February 13). Pancreatic Cancer Prognosis Statistics. Gitnux. https://gitnux.org/pancreatic-cancer-prognosis-statistics
MLA
Alexander Schmidt. "Pancreatic Cancer Prognosis Statistics." Gitnux, 13 Feb 2026, https://gitnux.org/pancreatic-cancer-prognosis-statistics.
Chicago
Alexander Schmidt. 2026. "Pancreatic Cancer Prognosis Statistics." Gitnux. https://gitnux.org/pancreatic-cancer-prognosis-statistics.
Sources & references
44 datasets cited across this report · attribution is report-level
+34 additional datasets cited (not shown individually)