Beneath every tire, surgical glove, and daily essential lies a silent, global industry that tapped out an impressive 14.06 million metric tons of natural rubber in 2022, with surprising stories of growth in Thailand and Indonesia, dramatic declines in Malaysia, and a relentless global demand consuming it all.
Key Takeaways
- Global natural rubber production in 2022 totaled 14.06 million metric tons, marking a 1.2% increase from 2021 primarily driven by higher outputs in Thailand and Indonesia
- Thailand produced 4.69 million metric tons of natural rubber in 2022, accounting for 33.4% of global production and up 2.5% year-over-year due to expanded tapping areas
- Indonesia's natural rubber output reached 3.12 million metric tons in 2022, representing 22.2% of world total and increasing by 0.8% amid replanting efforts
- Global natural rubber consumption reached 14.2 million metric tons in 2022, up 2.5% from 2021 fueled by tire industry recovery post-COVID
- China consumed 5.6 million metric tons of natural rubber in 2022, 39% of global total driven by automotive sector demand
- United States natural rubber consumption was 1.1 million metric tons in 2022, up 4% with 70% used in tires
- Global exports of natural rubber reached 12.8 million metric tons in 2022, up 3% from 2021 with Thailand leading shipments
- Thailand exported 4.1 million metric tons in 2022, 32% of global exports valued at $8.5 billion USD
- Indonesia's natural rubber exports totaled 2.9 million tons in 2022, down 2% due to domestic retention policies
- Global average natural rubber price (RSS 3) peaked at 280 US cents/kg in January 2022 before settling at 170 cents/kg by year-end
- Singapore Exchange (SICOM) RSS 3 futures averaged 192 US cents/kg in 2022, up 12% year-over-year
- Thailand RSS 3 spot price ranged from 55-65 THB/kg in Q1 2023, equivalent to $1,700/ton USD
- Global hevea plantations sequestered 1.2 billion tons CO2 equivalent cumulatively by 2022
- Rubber tree plantations cover 11.2 million ha, absorbing 15 million tons CO2 annually worldwide
- 40% of natural rubber production in 2022 came from smallholders with limited sustainable practices
Thailand and Indonesia led a modest increase in global natural rubber production last year.
Consumption
- Global natural rubber consumption reached 14.2 million metric tons in 2022, up 2.5% from 2021 fueled by tire industry recovery post-COVID
- China consumed 5.6 million metric tons of natural rubber in 2022, 39% of global total driven by automotive sector demand
- United States natural rubber consumption was 1.1 million metric tons in 2022, up 4% with 70% used in tires
- Europe (EU + UK) consumed 1.8 million metric tons in 2022, increasing 3.2% amid EV tire production surge
- Japan's consumption totaled 850,000 metric tons in 2022, down 1.5% due to synthetic substitution but stable in high-performance tires
- India used 1.35 million metric tons of natural rubber in FY 2022-23, 95% imported, for tire manufacturing growth
- Tire sector accounted for 75% of global natural rubber consumption in 2022, equating to 10.65 million tons
- Non-tire uses like gloves and condoms consumed 1.78 million tons globally in 2022, up 5% post-pandemic healthcare demand
- China's apparent consumption grew 6% to 5.6 million tons in 2022, with tire output at 240 million units
- US tire manufacturers used 820,000 tons of natural rubber in 2022 for passenger car tires primarily
- Global latex consumption for medical gloves reached 650,000 tons in 2022, 85% from Southeast Asia suppliers
- India's tire industry consumed 1.1 million tons of NR in FY 2022-23, producing 230 million tires
- Europe’s natural rubber use in automotive tires was 1.2 million tons in 2022, with Germany leading at 450,000 tons
- South Korea consumed 420,000 tons in 2022, focused on premium tire exports
- Brazil's consumption hit 320,000 tons in 2022, up 7% with local tire production expansion
- Global natural rubber stocks at consuming countries fell to 1.9 million tons end-2022, down 10% signaling tight supply
- Thailand's domestic consumption was 150,000 tons in 2022, mainly for local tire and latex products
- Vietnam processed 900,000 tons domestically in 2022, exporting surplus latex concentrate
- World consumption forecast for 2023 is 14.5 million tons, growing 2.1% on automotive recovery
- China's glove manufacturing used 400,000 tons of NR latex in 2022, down from pandemic peaks
- US non-tire NR use in belts and hoses was 150,000 tons in 2022
Consumption Interpretation
The world is quite literally rolling on rubber again, with a post-pandemic surge in global tire demand—led by a voracious China—driving consumption to new heights, though the industry now walks a tightrope as dwindling stocks signal a stretchy supply crunch.
Prices
- Global average natural rubber price (RSS 3) peaked at 280 US cents/kg in January 2022 before settling at 170 cents/kg by year-end
- Singapore Exchange (SICOM) RSS 3 futures averaged 192 US cents/kg in 2022, up 12% year-over-year
- Thailand RSS 3 spot price ranged from 55-65 THB/kg in Q1 2023, equivalent to $1,700/ton USD
- Global TSR 20 price averaged 165 US cents/kg in 2022, premium over RSS due to standardization
- India's ex-Kerala RSS 4 price was INR 185/kg in Dec 2022, up 25% from 2021 lows
- Latex concentrate (60% DRC) traded at 140 US cents/kg FOB Southeast Asia in 2022 average
- Natural rubber prices correlated 85% with crude oil prices in 2022 amid synthetic competition
- Shanghai Futures Exchange NR20 contract averaged CNY 15,500/ton ($2,200 USD) in 2022
- Volatility index for SICOM rubber futures was 25% annualized in 2022, highest since 2011
- Indonesia farmgate price for ribbed smoke sheet was IDR 15,000/kg average in 2022
- Global NR market value reached $25.6 billion USD in 2022 at prevailing prices
- RSS 1 premium over RSS 3 averaged 15 US cents/kg in 2022 for superior quality tires
- Vietnam latex price FOB was $1,500/ton in late 2022, up 10% on demand
- India's minimum support price for rubber sheet was INR 150/kg in 2022 season
- SICOM January 2023 futures settled at 178 US cents/kg, reflecting supply tightness
- Natural rubber price elasticity of demand estimated at -0.4 globally in 2022 studies
- Thailand block rubber (STR 5L) priced at 52 THB/kg average 2022
- Global NR producer revenue grew 18% to $28 billion in 2022 on volume and price gains
- RSS 3 Tokyo Commodity Exchange average 250 JPY/kg ($1,800 USD) in 2022
- Price forecast for 2023 RSS 3 at 160-180 US cents/kg per IRSG
- Malaysian SMR 20 price averaged MYR 7.5/kg ($1,650 USD) in 2022
- Natural rubber industry employed 6 million smallholders globally in 2022, generating $15 billion income
Prices Interpretation
From a dizzying January peak to a year-end slump, the natural rubber market of 2022 was a volatile seesaw where crude oil's whims, tire-maker demands, and millions of smallholders' livelihoods hung in the balance, proving that even bouncy commodities have a hard landing.
Production
- Global natural rubber production in 2022 totaled 14.06 million metric tons, marking a 1.2% increase from 2021 primarily driven by higher outputs in Thailand and Indonesia
- Thailand produced 4.69 million metric tons of natural rubber in 2022, accounting for 33.4% of global production and up 2.5% year-over-year due to expanded tapping areas
- Indonesia's natural rubber output reached 3.12 million metric tons in 2022, representing 22.2% of world total and increasing by 0.8% amid replanting efforts
- Vietnam contributed 1.15 million metric tons of natural rubber in 2022, or 8.2% of global supply, with a 3.1% growth from improved yields per hectare
- India's natural rubber production stood at 813,000 metric tons in FY 2022-23, a 10% rise from previous year supported by government subsidies for new plantations
- China produced 105,000 metric tons of natural rubber in 2022, down 5% due to aging trees and adverse weather in Hainan province
- Malaysia's output was 450,000 metric tons in 2022, comprising 3.2% of global production but declining 4.2% from reduced smallholder productivity
- Global natural rubber plantation area expanded to 11.2 million hectares in 2022, with Asia holding 95% of the total cultivated land
- Average yield per hectare for natural rubber globally was 1,320 kg/ha in 2022, highest in Vietnam at 1,950 kg/ha due to intensive farming practices
- Thailand's rubber tapping smallholders numbered 1.7 million in 2022, producing over 90% of the country's total output
- Indonesia replanted 45,000 hectares of rubber trees in 2022 under government programs to boost future production capacity
- India's rubber plantations covered 812,000 hectares in FY 2022-23, with Kerala state contributing 72% of national production
- World natural rubber production forecast for 2023 is 14.3 million metric tons, up 1.7% driven by Southeast Asia recovery
- Côte d'Ivoire emerged as Africa's top producer with 150,000 metric tons in 2022, up 15% from expanded estates
- Brazil's natural rubber output was 25,000 metric tons in 2022, limited by competition from synthetics but growing 8% via research hybrids
- Liberia produced 35,000 metric tons in 2022, a 20% increase from foreign investments in large-scale plantations
- Global RSS grades production dominated with 60% of total natural rubber output in 2022 being technically specified rubber (TSR)
- Thailand's latex concentrate production reached 1.2 million tons in 2022, up 5% for export-oriented processing
- Vietnam's smallholder farmers tapped 85% of the country's 1.15 million ton production in 2022
- India's average yield improved to 1,000 kg/ha in FY 2022-23 from high-yielding clones introduction
- China's Hainan island accounted for 95% of national rubber production at 100,000 tons in 2022
- Malaysia's estate sector produced 55% of its 450,000 ton output in 2022
- Global immature rubber area was 2.1 million hectares in 2022, poised for harvest in 2024-2025
- Indonesia's yield per hectare averaged 1,450 kg in 2022, below potential due to monsoons
- World SIR 20 grade production hit 4.5 million tons in 2022 from major producers standardizing quality
- Thailand exported 10,000 tons of block rubber in Q1 2023 alone, indicating strong production momentum
- India's Tripura state produced 55,000 tons, 7% of national total in FY 2022-23
- Global natural rubber production growth averaged 2.1% annually from 2018-2022
- Vietnam expanded rubber area by 15,000 ha to 1.1 million ha in 2022
Production Interpretation
While Thailand and Indonesia quietly reaffirm their rubbery dominance, the global industry is cautiously stretching forward, powered by Vietnam's impressive yields, India's subsidized ambition, and the hopeful promise of young trees waiting in the wings, all while contending with the stubborn constraints of aging groves and fickle weather.
Sustainability
- Global hevea plantations sequestered 1.2 billion tons CO2 equivalent cumulatively by 2022
- Rubber tree plantations cover 11.2 million ha, absorbing 15 million tons CO2 annually worldwide
- 40% of natural rubber production in 2022 came from smallholders with limited sustainable practices
- IRSG Sustainable Natural Rubber Initiative certified 1.5 million tons in 2022, up 20%
- Deforestation linked to rubber expansion was 150,000 ha in Southeast Asia 2018-2022
- Thailand's rubber plantations used 20% less water per ton in 2022 via efficient tapping tech
- Global NR industry water footprint averages 1,500 m3 per ton produced, mostly rainfed
- 25% of rubber trees planted 2015-2022 were climate-resilient RRIV hybrids in Vietnam
- Pesticide use in rubber plantations declined 15% globally 2017-2022 to 0.5 kg/ha/year
- India's Rubber Board promoted 50,000 ha organic rubber by 2022, yielding 10% premium prices
- Biodiversity in rubber agroforests preserved 30% more species than monocultures per 2022 studies
- Carbon credit potential for NR plantations estimated at $500 million annually by 2030
- Indonesia certified 300,000 ha under ISPO sustainable palm-rubber intercropping in 2022
- Global NR methane emissions from tapping estimated at 0.2 million tons CO2e in 2022
- 70% of Thai rubber smallholders adopted GPS tapping by 2022, reducing waste 12%
- Recycling rate of NR-based tires reached 55% globally in 2022, recovering 5.8 million tons
- Vietnam's rubber industry replanted 100,000 ha with high-yield clones reducing land use 20% by 2022
- Energy use in NR processing averaged 1.2 GJ/ton in 2022, down 10% via biomass boilers
- Fairtrade certified NR volume hit 50,000 tons in 2022, benefiting 20,000 farmers
- Rubber tree lifespan extended to 35 years average in 2022 with better fertilizers
- Global soil erosion in rubber areas reduced 25% by cover crops adoption in 2022
- China's rubber estates achieved 90% renewable energy in processing by 2022
- 15 million tons CO2 sequestered yearly by mature rubber trees globally in 2022
- Malaysia's RSPO-aligned rubber area grew to 200,000 ha in 2022
- Zero-burning policy compliance 95% in Indonesian rubber plantations 2022
- Women's participation in rubber tapping reached 40% globally by 2022 initiatives
- NR industry invested $500 million in R&D for sustainability 2018-2022
Sustainability Interpretation
Here is the one-sentence interpretation:
"The natural rubber industry is at a vital crossroads, where its impressive and growing role as a carbon sink is fundamentally challenged by the pace at which it must uproot its own deforestation-linked legacy through broad and meaningful adoption of sustainable practices."
Trade
- Global exports of natural rubber reached 12.8 million metric tons in 2022, up 3% from 2021 with Thailand leading shipments
- Thailand exported 4.1 million metric tons in 2022, 32% of global exports valued at $8.5 billion USD
- Indonesia's natural rubber exports totaled 2.9 million tons in 2022, down 2% due to domestic retention policies
- Vietnam exported 1.4 million tons in 2022, a 12% increase primarily latex to China
- China's natural rubber imports surged to 5.5 million tons in 2022, 43% of world imports costing $11.2 billion
- US imported 1.05 million tons of NR in 2022, mostly RSS and TSR grades from Southeast Asia
- India imported 1.34 million tons in FY 2022-23, up 15% to meet tire demand, mainly from Indonesia
- Top export product was TSR 20 at 4.2 million tons traded globally in 2022
- Thailand-China trade volume was 1.8 million tons in 2022, 44% of Thailand's exports
- EU imported 1.7 million tons in 2022, with Germany at 550,000 tons for tire industry
- Japan's NR imports were 800,000 tons in 2022, 95% from Indonesia and Thailand
- Malaysia exported 430,000 tons in 2022, focusing on high-value SIR grades to US and Europe
- Global latex exports grew to 2.1 million tons in 2022, Vietnam supplying 60%
- Indonesia-US exports reached 350,000 tons in 2022 under trade agreements
- India's exports were minimal at 25,000 tons in FY 2022-23, prioritizing domestic use
- World RSS 3 exports totaled 1.2 million tons in 2022, down 5% from quality shifts to TSR
- Thailand's export value per ton averaged $2,100 USD in 2022, boosted by price rally
- China's imports from Vietnam hit 1.1 million tons in 2022, up 20%
- Global NR trade balance showed producing countries surplus of 1.2 million tons in 2022
- EU-Vietnam FTA boosted latex imports by 15% to 250,000 tons in 2022
- US imports from Thailand were 420,000 tons in 2022, 40% of total NR imports
- Forecast global NR exports for 2023 at 13.1 million tons, up 2.3%
- Indonesia imposed export levy yielding $1.2 billion revenue in 2022 from 2.9 million tons shipped
Trade Interpretation
While Thailand's 4.1 million-ton stranglehold on global rubber exports shows it's clearly the king of stretch, China's colossal 5.5-million-ton appetite for imports proves that in this industry, the real power lies not in producing the squeeze, but in being the world's tireless consumer who buys the squeeze.
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