While Americans collectively owe a staggering $12.6 trillion on their homes, a rising tide of delinquencies and foreclosures signals that this record debt burden is starting to crack under pressure.
Key Takeaways
- As of Q2 2024, total U.S. residential mortgage debt outstanding reached $12.61 trillion, marking a 4.2% year-over-year increase.
- In Q1 2023, U.S. mortgage debt held by households stood at $11.92 trillion, up 3.8% from the previous year.
- Mortgage debt as a percentage of GDP was 52.3% in 2023, the highest since 2008.
- Overall delinquency rate for mortgage loans was 3.97% at the end of Q4 2023, up 12 basis points from the previous quarter.
- Seriously delinquent mortgages (90+ days) stood at 1.37% in Q1 2024.
- Mortgage delinquency rate rose to 4.04% in Q1 2024 from 3.82% YoY.
- Average mortgage balance per borrower was $252,000 in Q4 2023.
- Median mortgage debt per household: $180,500 as of 2022 Census data.
- Average outstanding mortgage balance grew 4% to $244,498 in 2023.
- Total mortgage originations reached $1.5 trillion in 2023.
- Purchase mortgage originations: $1.04 trillion in 2023, down 30% YoY.
- Refinance originations dropped to $462 billion in 2023.
- Foreclosure starts increased 10% YoY to 52,000 in Q4 2023.
- Active foreclosure inventory: 0.34% of all mortgages in Q1 2024.
- Completed foreclosures: 81,000 properties in 2023.
U.S. mortgage debt hit record highs as delinquencies began to rise.
Aggregate Debt Levels
1As of Q2 2024, total U.S. residential mortgage debt outstanding reached $12.61 trillion, marking a 4.2% year-over-year increase.
Verified2In Q1 2023, U.S. mortgage debt held by households stood at $11.92 trillion, up 3.8% from the previous year.
Verified3Mortgage debt as a percentage of GDP was 52.3% in 2023, the highest since 2008.
Verified4Total first-lien mortgage debt grew by $344 billion in 2023 to $12.25 trillion.
Directional5By end-2022, outstanding home-secured debt totaled $12.08 trillion, with a quarterly increase of 1.1%.
Single source6U.S. mortgage debt service payments reached $1.2 trillion annually in 2023.
Verified7Total mortgage balances increased 5.1% year-over-year to $12.44 trillion in Q4 2023.
Verified8Residential mortgage debt outstanding hit $12.5 trillion in March 2024.
Verified9Mortgage debt grew by 4.7% in 2022, reaching $11.9 trillion.
Directional10As of Q3 2023, total U.S. mortgage debt was $12.35 trillion, up from $11.8 trillion in 2022.
Single source11Household mortgage debt balance was $11.84 trillion in Q4 2022.
Verified12Total secured by 1-4 family residences: $12.17 trillion as of Dec 2023.
Verified13Mortgage debt outstanding increased $500 billion YoY to $12.4T in mid-2023.
Verified14By Q1 2024, U.S. mortgage debt totaled $12.58T, a record high.
Directional15Annual growth in mortgage debt was 3.5% in 2023 to $12.3T.
Single source16Total mortgage debt peaked at $12.62T in Q2 2024.
Verified17Mortgage debt share of total household debt: 70.2% in 2023.
Verified18$12.25T in mortgage debt reported in Urban Institute's Q4 2023 data.
Verified19Year-end 2023 mortgage debt: $12.44 trillion per CoreLogic.
Directional20Fed data shows $12.1T mortgage debt in early 2023.
Single sourceAggregate Debt Levels Interpretation
We are diligently stacking bricks of debt to rebuild the house of cards we call homeownership, as evidenced by a record-breaking $12.6 trillion mortgage mountain that now towers higher relative to the economy than at any point since the last time the music stopped in 2008.
Average Balances
1Average mortgage balance per borrower was $252,000 in Q4 2023.
Verified2Median mortgage debt per household: $180,500 as of 2022 Census data.
Verified3Average outstanding mortgage balance grew 4% to $244,498 in 2023.
Verified4Mean mortgage debt for homeowners: $208,100 in 2021.
Directional5Average first mortgage balance: $259,000 per TransUnion Q3 2023.
Single source6Home equity line average balance: $12,400 in Q1 2024.
Verified7Average mortgage per millennial borrower: $235,000 in 2023.
Verified8Jumbo mortgage average balance: $650,000+ in 2023.
Verified9FHA average loan balance: $280,000 as of 2024.
Directional10Average refinanced mortgage balance: $290,100 in Q2 2023.
Single source11Per household mortgage debt averaged $156,000 in 2022.
Verified12Average VA mortgage balance: $295,500 end-2023.
Verified13Prime borrower average mortgage: $270,000 Q4 2023.
Verified14Subprime average balance: $165,000 in 2023 data.
Directional15Average HELOC balance outstanding: $18,700 per borrower 2023.
Single source16National average mortgage debt per mortgaged household: $242,000 Q1 2024.
Verified17Average balance for conventional loans: $255,000 in 2023.
VerifiedAverage Balances Interpretation
The average homeowner's mortgage is a quarter-million-dollar reality, but the median tells the sobering tale that for every person with a jumbo loan, there's someone else keeping the average afloat with a far more modest anchor.
Delinquency Rates
1Overall delinquency rate for mortgage loans was 3.97% at the end of Q4 2023, up 12 basis points from the previous quarter.
Verified2Seriously delinquent mortgages (90+ days) stood at 1.37% in Q1 2024.
Verified3Mortgage delinquency rate rose to 4.04% in Q1 2024 from 3.82% YoY.
Verified430-day delinquencies for mortgages were 2.58% in Q4 2023.
Directional5FHA loan delinquency rate was 10.88% as of February 2024.
Single source6VA mortgage delinquencies hit 4.69% in Q4 2023.
Verified7Conventional loan delinquency rate: 2.68% in Q1 2024.
Verified8Subprime mortgage delinquency reached 8.5% in late 2023.
Verified9Overall seriously delinquent rate for mortgages: 0.89% in Q3 2023.
Directional10Mortgage loans 60+ days delinquent: 2.1% in March 2024 per Black Knight.
Single source11Delinquency rate for prime mortgages was 2.4% in Q2 2023.
Verified12Jumbo mortgage delinquency: 1.12% as of Q4 2023.
Verified13GSE mortgage delinquency rate fell to 1.3% in 2023.
Verified14Adjustable-rate mortgage delinquency: 1.8% in Q1 2024.
Directional15Fixed-rate delinquency steady at 2.9% YoY in 2023.
Single source16Early-stage delinquencies (30-59 days) for mortgages: 1.64% Q4 2023.
Verified17National mortgage delinquency up 5 bps to 3.92% in Q3 2023.
Verified18Percent of mortgages seriously delinquent: 1.4% end-2023.
VerifiedDelinquency Rates Interpretation
While a few trouble spots flicker like bad wiring, the vast majority of the mortgage market remains solidly lit, with the overall delinquency glow only dimming slightly from 3.82% to 4.04% over the past year.
Foreclosure Stats
1Foreclosure starts increased 10% YoY to 52,000 in Q4 2023.
Verified2Active foreclosure inventory: 0.34% of all mortgages in Q1 2024.
Verified3Completed foreclosures: 81,000 properties in 2023.
Verified4Foreclosure rate: 0.26% in March 2024 per Black Knight.
Directional5Serious delinquency leading to foreclosure: 0.9% Q4 2023.
Single source6States with highest foreclosure rates: Delaware 0.52% in 2023.
Verified7Judicial foreclosure states saw 15% rise in starts 2023.
Verified8Pre-foreclosure properties: 215,000 nationwide Q1 2024.
Verified9FHA foreclosure completions: 25,000 in FY2023.
Directional10VA foreclosure rate: 0.15% lowest among sectors 2023.
Single source11Non-judicial foreclosures averaged 28 days in 2023.
Verified12Foreclosure auctions: 45,000 in Q4 2023.
Verified13Serious delinquency rate (proxy for foreclosure risk): 1.38% Q2 2024.
Verified14Total foreclosures prevented via modifications: 1.2M since 2020.
Directional15Foreclosure sales as % of all sales: 0.4% in 2023.
Single source16Illinois foreclosure starts: 1 in 2,500 homes Q1 2024.
VerifiedForeclosure Stats Interpretation
While a headline-worthy spike in foreclosure starts is waving a red flag, the overall numbers reveal a market that, for the vast majority, is still firmly holding the fort—though a worrying number of cracks are appearing in the foundation.
Origination Trends
1Total mortgage originations reached $1.5 trillion in 2023.
Verified2Purchase mortgage originations: $1.04 trillion in 2023, down 30% YoY.
Verified3Refinance originations dropped to $462 billion in 2023.
Verified4Q4 2023 mortgage applications fell 8% YoY per MBA.
Directional52024 forecasted originations: $1.6 trillion total.
Single source6FHA originations: 12% of market volume in 2023 at $180B.
Verified7VA purchase loans originated: $120 billion in FY2023.
Verified8Conventional conforming originations: 70% market share 2023.
Verified9Jumbo originations declined 25% to $150B in 2023.
Directional10ARM originations surged to 10% of total in Q4 2023.
Single source11New mortgage originations per 100k population: 450 in 2023.
Verified12Cash-out refinance volume: $200B in 2023.
Verified13Rate/term refinance: under 5% of originations 2023.
Verified14Total 2022 originations: $2.2 trillion, 45% drop from 2021.
Directional15Q1 2024 originations: $380B, lowest in decades.
Single source16GSE-backed originations: $1.1T in 2023.
Verified17Non-QM originations: $50B in 2023, up 20%.
Verified18Mortgage applications index: 180.5 in Jan 2024, down 18% YoY.
VerifiedOrigination Trends Interpretation
The housing market's 2023 story is one of cautious buyers clinging to conventional loans, opportunistic homeowners swapping high rates for high cash-out sums, and everyone collectively agreeing that the heady days of 2021's refinance frenzy were a bizarre, distant dream.
Sources & References
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