If you think the American Dream of homeownership is slipping further from reach, you're not wrong—amidst a relentless surge in prices and rents, new data reveals a housing market that is increasingly unaffordable and segmented.
Key Takeaways
- In 2023, the median sales price of existing single-family homes in the United States reached $389,800, marking a 5.3% increase from 2022 according to the National Association of Realtors.
- As of Q2 2024, the average home value in the US stood at $367,711, with a year-over-year appreciation of 5.2% per Zillow's Home Value Index.
- In California, the median home price hit $791,000 in May 2024, up 2.9% from the previous year, driven by limited supply reports the California Association of Realtors.
- US national median rent for all bedroom counts was $1,967 in June 2024, up 0.9% MoM from Apartment List.
- In New York, NY, average rent for a one-bedroom apartment averaged $4,210 in Q2 2024 per Zumper.
- San Francisco median rent stood at $3,150 for all units in May 2024, down 1.2% YoY according to RentCafe.
- US homeownership rate was 65.7% in Q1 2024, down from 66.0% prior quarter per Census Bureau.
- Homeownership among Black Americans stood at 44.1% in 2023, up 0.9% from 2022 via Census.
- Millennials (born 1981-1996) homeownership rate reached 52% in 2023 per Urban Institute.
- US housing inventory for active listings was 1.22 million in June 2024, up 25% YoY per Realtor.com.
- New residential construction starts totaled 1,416,000 units annualized in May 2024 per Census.
- Single-family housing permits issued: 980,000 annualized in Q1 2024 from Census.
- 30-year fixed mortgage rate averaged 6.99% in week ending June 27, 2024 per Freddie Mac.
- Housing affordability index was 98.1 in Q1 2024, below 100 indicating unaffordability per NAR.
- Monthly mortgage payment for median home at $2,217 in June 2024 assuming 20% down per Redfin.
Home prices continue rising nationwide, but high mortgage rates are reducing affordability for many buyers.
Affordability
- 30-year fixed mortgage rate averaged 6.99% in week ending June 27, 2024 per Freddie Mac.
- Housing affordability index was 98.1 in Q1 2024, below 100 indicating unaffordability per NAR.
- Monthly mortgage payment for median home at $2,217 in June 2024 assuming 20% down per Redfin.
- 43% of home buyers used FHA loans in 2023 NAR data.
- Rent as % of income: 30% for median renter household in 2023 Harvard JCHS.
- Home price-to-income ratio nationally 5.5x in 2023 per Demographia.
- Share of income for principal/interest on median home: 28% in Q1 2024 NAR.
- Delinquency rate on mortgages: 3.64% in Q1 2024 per MBA.
- 52% of US homes mortgage-free in 2023 per Census.
- Average FICO score for home buyers: 753 in 2023 VantageScore.
- Cost-burdened homeowners (30%+ income on housing): 24% in 2022 HUD.
- ARM share of mortgages 7.5% Q1 2024 Freddie Mac.
- Median down payment 14% for all buyers 2023 NAR.
- FHA loan share 18% of originations Q1 2024 MBA.
- Severe cost-burdened renters 20.2% 2022 Harvard.
- Mortgage applications up 4% WoW June 2024 MBA.
- Refinance share 3.2% of apps June 2024 MBA.
- Jumbo loan average rate 7.02% June 2024 Freddie Mac.
- Housing cost median $1,200/mo 2023 Census ACS.
- Denied mortgage apps 14% for Black applicants 2023 HMDA.
Affordability Interpretation
The American housing market has become a cruel math problem where the dream of homeownership requires either a stellar credit score, a large down payment, or a willingness to spend nearly a third of your income just to keep a roof over your head.
Inventory
- US housing inventory for active listings was 1.22 million in June 2024, up 25% YoY per Realtor.com.
- New residential construction starts totaled 1,416,000 units annualized in May 2024 per Census.
- Single-family housing permits issued: 980,000 annualized in Q1 2024 from Census.
- Months' supply of existing homes was 4.0 months in May 2024 per NAR.
- Under-construction inventory for single-family homes: 368,000 units in Q1 2024 per Census.
- Multifamily completions: 316,000 units in 2023 annualized per Census.
- Homes for sale nationally: 720,000 active listings in June 2024 up 20% YoY Redfin.
- Builder confidence index (NAHB) at 68 in June 2024.
- Housing starts declined 5.5% MoM to 1.277 million in April 2024 per Census.
- Vacant for-sale inventory: 610,000 units in Q1 2024 Census.
- Median days on market for homes sold: 29 days in May 2024 NAR.
- Total US housing units 144.4 million in 2023 Census.
- Single-family completions 950,000 annualized Q1 2024 Census.
- For-sale inventory share of total 1.7% June 2024 Realtor.com.
- New home inventory 8.2 months supply May 2024 Census.
- Pending home sales index 71.3 in May 2024 NAR.
- Builder signed contracts up 5% MoM June 2024 NAHB.
- Rental vacancy rate 6.6% Q1 2024 Census.
- Total unsold new homes 483,000 May 2024 Census.
- Price cuts on listings 43.4% of homes June 2024 Redfin.
- Multifamily starts 375,000 annualized April 2024 Census.
Inventory Interpretation
The housing market, in its infinite wisdom, has decided to simultaneously slam on the gas by boosting listings and builder confidence while cautiously tapping the brakes with declining starts, creating a frenetic tableau where everything is up, down, or sideways, yet homes still sell in a month—presumably to buyers who are thoroughly confused but determined.
Ownership
- US homeownership rate was 65.7% in Q1 2024, down from 66.0% prior quarter per Census Bureau.
- Homeownership among Black Americans stood at 44.1% in 2023, up 0.9% from 2022 via Census.
- Millennials (born 1981-1996) homeownership rate reached 52% in 2023 per Urban Institute.
- In 2022, 36% of US households were homeowners under age 35, per NAR.
- Hispanic homeownership rate increased to 49.1% in Q4 2023 from NAR Profile of Home Buyers.
- Senior (65+) homeownership rate was 80.5% in 2023 per Census ACS data.
- First-time homebuyer share was 32% in 2023, lowest on record per NAR.
- Married couples accounted for 64% of home buyers in 2023 NAR survey.
- Vacant ownership rate for seasonal homes was 2.9% in 2023 per Census.
- Gen Z (born 1997+) homeownership rate at 26% in 2023 via Urban Institute.
- Homeownership rate for Asian Americans 63.1% in 2023 Census.
- Single women homeownership 10.7 million households 2022 NAR.
- Rural homeownership rate 81% vs urban 62% 2023 Census.
- Repeat buyers 68% of market 2023 NAR.
- Veteran homeownership 77.2% 2023 VA.
- Empty-nester sellers 28% of market 2023 NAR.
- Foreign buyers 2% of purchases 2022-23 NAR.
- Co-buyer households 12% in 2023 NAR survey.
- Homeownership gap Black-White 30.1 points 2023 Urban Institute.
- Investor ownership 17% of single-family homes Q1 2024 Redfin.
Ownership Interpretation
While the overall homeownership rate slightly dipped, the American dream displays its stubbornly uneven topography: it solidifies for seniors and veterans, climbs slowly for Black and Hispanic households, remains a steep climb for Millennials and a distant peak for Gen Z, and is increasingly shaped by investors and repeat buyers rather than first-timers.
Prices and Sales
- In 2023, the median sales price of existing single-family homes in the United States reached $389,800, marking a 5.3% increase from 2022 according to the National Association of Realtors.
- As of Q2 2024, the average home value in the US stood at $367,711, with a year-over-year appreciation of 5.2% per Zillow's Home Value Index.
- In California, the median home price hit $791,000 in May 2024, up 2.9% from the previous year, driven by limited supply reports the California Association of Realtors.
- New York City's median home sales price was $1,095,000 in Q1 2024, a 7.2% rise YoY according to StreetEasy data.
- The Case-Shiller Home Price Index for the US increased by 6.5% in March 2024 compared to March 2023, per S&P Dow Jones Indices.
- Phoenix metro area's median home price surged to $435,000 in 2023, up 4.1% YoY from Redfin data.
- In 2022, US existing-home sales totaled 5.03 million units, down 18.9% from 2021 per NAR.
- Miami's median single-family home price reached $640,000 in Q1 2024, up 10.2% YoY via Elliman reports.
- FHFA House Price Index rose 6.2% in Q4 2023 nationally, source: FHFA.
- Atlanta median home price was $400,000 in April 2024, +5.3% YoY per Redfin.
- In 2023, the median sales price of existing single-family homes in the Northeast US was $435,600, up 8.1% YoY per NAR.
- Dallas-Fort Worth median home price reached $395,000 in Q2 2024, +3.8% YoY from Redfin.
- CoreLogic Home Price Index rose 5.1% YoY in April 2024 for single-family homes.
- Seattle median sale price $850,000 in May 2024, up 4.5% YoY per Zillow.
- Existing condo sales median price $380,000 nationally in 2023 NAR.
- Boston metro home prices averaged $750,000 in Q1 2024, +6.2% YoY Warren Group.
- US new home median sales price $417,400 in April 2024 per Census.
- Las Vegas median home price $435,000 in June 2024, flat YoY Redfin.
- Detroit median price surged 12% to $220,000 in 2023 per Rocket Homes.
- National average price per square foot $192 in Q2 2024 ATTOM Data.
Prices and Sales Interpretation
While the American Dream may still be alive, its rent has increased an average of 5-6% nationally, with particularly steep service charges in coastal cities like New York and Miami, proving that home is where the heart is—and where the wallet is emptied.
Rentals
- US national median rent for all bedroom counts was $1,967 in June 2024, up 0.9% MoM from Apartment List.
- In New York, NY, average rent for a one-bedroom apartment averaged $4,210 in Q2 2024 per Zumper.
- San Francisco median rent stood at $3,150 for all units in May 2024, down 1.2% YoY according to RentCafe.
- US multifamily vacancy rate was 6.4% in Q1 2024, per Census Bureau's Rental Vacancy Survey.
- Average US rent increased 3.2% YoY to $1,721 in 2023 from Realtor.com.
- Chicago's median rent for two-bedrooms was $2,100 in June 2024, +2.5% YoY via Zumper.
- National rent price index rose 1.1% YoY as of April 2024 per CoreLogic.
- Austin, TX average rent hit $1,650 for one-bedrooms in Q2 2024, up 4% YoY from Apartment List.
- Rental affordability index showed 50% of US renters cost-burdened in 2022 per Harvard JCHS.
- Denver median rent was $1,950 in May 2024, flat YoY per Rent.com.
- Los Angeles median home price $1,000,000 in May 2024, +8.5% YoY CAR.
- Philadelphia average rent $1,800 for two-bedrooms June 2024 Zumper.
- Vacancy rate for large apartments (50+ units) 7.2% Q1 2024 NMHC.
- Median asking rent $2,000 in Sun Belt markets 2024 Yardi Matrix.
- Boston median rent $3,300 one-bedroom Q2 2024 RentCafe.
- US rent growth slowed to 2.8% YoY in May 2024 CoreLogic.
- Miami average rent $2,900 all units June 2024 Apartment List.
- Subsidized rental units occupied 95% nationally 2023 HUD.
- Portland OR median rent $1,750 down 3% YoY 2024 Rent.com.
- Eviction filings up 12% YoY in 2023 Princeton Eviction Lab.
Rentals Interpretation
Despite a national rent increase that seems modest, the persistently high prices in major cities and the fact that half of all renters are cost-burdened reveal a market where 'slowing growth' feels less like relief and more like a slowly tightening vise.
Sources & References
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- Reference 18DATAdata.census.govVisit source
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