Key Takeaways
- In 2023, the US median home sales price hit $417,700, up 6% from 2022, outpacing wage growth by 4x since 2019.
- California's median home price reached $815,000 in Q3 2023, requiring an annual income of $198,000 for affordability at 28% debt-to-income.
- Nationally, 92% of US homes are unaffordable to households earning the median income as of October 2023.
- National rent increased 30% from 2021-2023, with average two-bedroom at $1,766/month.
- In 2023, 22.4 million US renter households faced severe housing cost burden (>50% income).
- Median rent in Phoenix rose 25% to $1,650/month in 2023, evicting 15,000 low-income families.
- US housing shortage estimated at 3.8 million units in 2023.
- Only 936,000 new housing units completed in 2023, 1.5 million below demand.
- California faces 1.2 million unit shortage, with 180,000 built annually vs. 300,000 needed.
- US homelessness rose 12% to 653,000 people in 2023.
- Chronic homelessness increased 19% to 143,000 individuals in 2023.
- 40% of US homeless are unsheltered, totaling 260,000 in 2023.
- Federal spending on housing assistance $82 billion in FY2023, serving 5 million households.
- Section 8 vouchers cover only 1 in 4 eligible households in 2023.
- Zoning laws restrict 75% of residential land from multifamily in major metros.
Soaring housing costs and scarce supply have made homes unaffordable for most Americans.
Home Prices and Affordability
- In 2023, the US median home sales price hit $417,700, up 6% from 2022, outpacing wage growth by 4x since 2019.
- California's median home price reached $815,000 in Q3 2023, requiring an annual income of $198,000 for affordability at 28% debt-to-income.
- Nationally, 92% of US homes are unaffordable to households earning the median income as of October 2023.
- In 2023, mortgage rates averaged 7.8%, pushing monthly payments on a median home to $2,585, a 75% increase from 2021.
- Renters need to earn $82,870 annually to afford a two-bedroom apartment at HUD's 30% income threshold in 2023.
- Home price-to-income ratio in the US reached 5.5 in 2023, highest since 2006 bubble peak.
- In NYC, median home price was $775,000 in 2023, with affordability index at 45 for middle-income families.
- US home prices rose 40% from 2020-2023, while wages grew only 15%.
- In 2023, 7.2 million US households spent over 50% of income on housing, up 1.5 million from 2019.
- Median home price in Austin, TX surged to $530,000 in 2023, 3x the 2010 level adjusted for inflation.
- In 2023, US median home price was $389,800, up 2.6% YoY, straining first-time buyers.
- 86% of counties saw home prices exceed 3x median income in 2023.
- Seattle median home $850,000 in 2023, affordability ratio 9.5.
- Down payment for median home averaged 14% or $58,000 in 2023.
- House price index up 50% since 2012 low, per Case-Shiller.
- 35% of US adults under 35 live with parents due to housing costs in 2023.
- Denver home prices up 45% since 2020 to $565,000 median.
- Mortgage delinquency rate 3.8% in Q4 2023, lowest ever.
Home Prices and Affordability Interpretation
Homelessness Statistics
- US homelessness rose 12% to 653,000 people in 2023.
- Chronic homelessness increased 19% to 143,000 individuals in 2023.
- 40% of US homeless are unsheltered, totaling 260,000 in 2023.
- Family homelessness up 15.5% to 150,000 households in 2023.
- Veterans homelessness fell 7.5% to 35,000 in 2023, but still high.
- Youth homelessness affects 4.2% of US youth annually, 700,000+ in 2023.
- LA County homeless population at 75,500 in 2023, up 9%.
- Black Americans comprise 37% of homeless despite 13% population share in 2023.
- Evictions caused 20% of new homelessness entries in 2023.
- NYC shelter population hit record 100,000+ in 2023.
- Homeless in Seattle up 19% to 13,368 in 2023.
- 28% of homeless are employed full-time in 2023.
- Women/family homelessness rose 31% in 2023.
- 130,000 emergency shelter beds nationwide in 2023.
- Native Hawaiian/Pacific Islander homelessness 40x population rate.
- 3.5 million K-12 students experienced homelessness in 2023.
- Chicago homeless count 19,400 up 7% in 2023.
- DC homeless 5,616, up 14% in 2023.
Homelessness Statistics Interpretation
Housing Supply Shortages
- US housing shortage estimated at 3.8 million units in 2023.
- Only 936,000 new housing units completed in 2023, 1.5 million below demand.
- California faces 1.2 million unit shortage, with 180,000 built annually vs. 300,000 needed.
- Multifamily permits fell 25% in 2023 to 440,000 units.
- Homeownership rate stuck at 65.7% in 2023, lowest for millennials at 48%.
- 7 million fewer homes available for sale in 2023 vs. 2019.
- Inventory of active listings 40% below pre-pandemic norms in 2023.
- Underbuilding since 2012 totals 5.5 million units, per Freddie Mac.
- Single-family permits down 15% YoY in 2023 to 950,000.
- Northeast US shortage at 1.1 million units, with vacancy rate 4.2%.
- Portland OR shortage 140,000 units in 2023.
- Builder confidence index fell to 34 in Dec 2023, lowest since 2007.
- 4.3 million unit shortage for low-income in 2023.
- Starts-to-sales ratio 3.5 months supply in 2023.
- FL built 150,000 units but needs 250,000 annually.
- Pending home sales down 8% YoY, inventory tight.
- TX shortage 1 million units projected by 2030.
Housing Supply Shortages Interpretation
Policy and Economic Impacts
- Federal spending on housing assistance $82 billion in FY2023, serving 5 million households.
- Section 8 vouchers cover only 1 in 4 eligible households in 2023.
- Zoning laws restrict 75% of residential land from multifamily in major metros.
- Tax code subsidies for homeowners total $30 billion annually vs. $15B renters in 2023.
- COVID-era eviction moratorium prevented 1.5 million evictions from 2020-2022.
- FHA loans insured 800,000 homes in 2023, but down 20% due to rates.
- LIHTC funded 125,000 affordable units in 2023, shortfall of 200,000.
- NIMBY policies delayed 30% of housing projects in CA by 2+ years.
- Inflation Reduction Act allocated $10B for affordable housing in 2023.
- Build Back Better proposed 2M units, but only 500k funded by 2023.
- Rent relief from ARPA used $46B, preventing 800k evictions.
- 75% of US land zoned single-family only.
- Mortgage interest deduction benefits top 20% income most.
- CA ADU laws added 30,000 units since 2017.
- GSEs bought 60% of 2023 mortgages, stabilizing market.
- Opportunity Zones created 1M housing units by 2023.
- Rent control covers 2% of US rentals, ineffective broadly.
Policy and Economic Impacts Interpretation
Rental Costs and Trends
- National rent increased 30% from 2021-2023, with average two-bedroom at $1,766/month.
- In 2023, 22.4 million US renter households faced severe housing cost burden (>50% income).
- Median rent in Phoenix rose 25% to $1,650/month in 2023, evicting 15,000 low-income families.
- Vacancy rate for rentals dropped to 6.6% in Q4 2023, lowest since 1984.
- In Chicago, average rent hit $2,100/month in 2023, up 18% YoY, burdening 55% of renters.
- US multifamily rents grew 3.1% YoY in 2023, with Class A at $1,800/unit.
- 48% of US renters were rent-burdened in 2022, projected to 52% in 2023.
- In Miami, rents surged 22% to $2,300/month average in 2023.
- National median rent reached $1,978 in December 2023, 20% above pre-pandemic levels.
- Eviction filings rose 10% in 2023 to 3.6 million nationwide.
- Atlanta rents up 15% to $1,850/month in 2023.
- 11 million cost-burdened renters in suburbs in 2023.
- San Francisco median rent $3,200 in 2023, highest US city.
- Rent growth slowed to 2.5% YoY in Q4 2023.
- 50% of renters under 30 spend >30% income on rent.
- Houston eviction rate 1 in 50 rentals in 2023.
- Average US rent $1,700/month, up 25% from 2019.
- Boston rents $3,000 average, burden 60% low-income.
Rental Costs and Trends Interpretation
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