The U.S. housing market just closed the book on its slowest year in nearly three decades, a story of plummeting sales, stubbornly high prices, and a dramatic shift in who's actually buying homes.
Key Takeaways
- In 2023, U.S. existing-home sales reached 4.09 million units, marking a 19.0% decline from 5.03 million in 2022, the lowest since 1995.
- New single-family home sales in the U.S. totaled 668,000 units in 2023, up 3.1% from 2022 but still below pre-pandemic averages.
- Total U.S. home sales (existing and new) in Q4 2023 were 1.02 million units, down 4.3% year-over-year.
- National median home price hit $389,800 in February 2024, up 5.4% YoY.
- U.S. average home sales price in 2023 was $499,600 for existing homes.
- New home median sales price reached $414,300 in March 2024, down 2.9% YoY.
- Months' supply of existing homes nationally was 3.7 months in February 2024.
- Total U.S. active listings for sale reached 1.07 million in February 2024, up 15% YoY.
- New homes for sale inventory was 482,000 units in March 2024, 8.1 months supply.
- Existing-home sales in the Northeast totaled 610,000 units in 2023.
- Midwest home sales reached 1.10 million units in 2023, down 15% YoY.
- South region dominated with 2.00 million existing sales in 2023, 49% national share.
- First-time buyers comprised 27% of U.S. purchases in 2023 NAR survey.
- Repeat buyers made up 73% of home sales in 2023, highest on record.
- Median age of homebuyers rose to 56 years old in 2023.
Home sales sharply declined in 2023 but showed tentative signs of recovery.
Buyer Demographics
- First-time buyers comprised 27% of U.S. purchases in 2023 NAR survey.
- Repeat buyers made up 73% of home sales in 2023, highest on record.
- Median age of homebuyers rose to 56 years old in 2023.
- 22% of buyers were single females, 10% single males in 2023 survey.
- All-cash buyers accounted for 28% of U.S. home sales in 2023.
- Investor purchases dropped to 15% of sales in 2023 from 19% in 2022.
- Median household income of buyers was $107,000 in 2023 NAR data.
- 51% of buyers used Realtor agent, down from 87% in 2020.
- Remote workers share among buyers fell to 20% in 2023 from 28% peak.
- Baby Boomers downsizing sales share 28% in 2023.
- 38% of buyers looked at 10 homes or fewer before purchase in 2023.
- iBuyers share of transactions negligible at 1% in 2023.
- 26% of 2023 buyers were born outside U.S., highest in NAR history.
- College-educated buyers 55% of total in 2023 survey.
- VA loan usage 11% of financed purchases in 2023.
- 89% of buyers financed with mortgage, down from 92% pre-2022.
- Median down payment 14% of purchase price in 2023.
- Millennial buyers (under 43) 38% share in 2023, down from 45%.
- 17% of buyers were same-state movers, 12% long-distance in 2023.
- FHA loans 17% of purchase mortgages in 2023.
- 62% of buyers prioritized price over location in 2023 survey.
- Retiree buyers increased to 22% of market in 2023.
- 45% of buyers cited high rates as top purchase obstacle 2023.
- Cash buyers median age 63 vs 49 for financed in 2023.
- 34% of young buyers (25-34) delayed purchase due to affordability 2023.
- Institutional investor sales 4% of total single-family in 2023.
Buyer Demographics Interpretation
Amidst a market where wisdom, wallets, and wrinkles hold sway, the American dream of homeownership is increasingly becoming a sequel dominated by older, cash-rich repeat buyers, leaving first-timers to navigate a steep climb of high prices, higher rates, and the daunting shadow of a 56-year-old median buyer.
Inventory Levels
- Months' supply of existing homes nationally was 3.7 months in February 2024.
- Total U.S. active listings for sale reached 1.07 million in February 2024, up 15% YoY.
- New homes for sale inventory was 482,000 units in March 2024, 8.1 months supply.
- Existing-home inventory jumped 18.1% month-over-month to 1.18 million in March 2024.
- National new listings increased 8% YoY in Q1 2024 to 350,000 per month average.
- U.S. homes under contract represented 32% of active inventory in early 2024.
- Shadow inventory (pre-foreclosure) was only 0.4% of all homes in 2023.
- Total unsold new home inventory hit 9-month supply peak since 2009 in 2023.
- Existing single-family inventory was 870,000 units end of 2023, up 25% YoY.
- Median days on market rose to 65 days nationally in February 2024.
- New construction listings share of total inventory reached 20% in Q1 2024.
- U.S. listings with price drops increased to 32% of active in March 2024.
- Inventory of homes priced under $500k grew 12% YoY in 2023.
- Total U.S. housing inventory per Freddie Mac was 3.2 months in Q4 2023.
- Condo inventory surged 30% YoY to 220,000 units in early 2024.
- Builder inventory of completed new homes was 108,000 in March 2024.
- Active listings in suburbs grew 18% faster than urban in 2023.
- U.S. total supply (active + pending) was 1.5 million homes in Q1 2024.
- Under-construction new homes numbered 374,000 in March 2024.
- Inventory-to-sales ratio for existing homes was 4.3 months average 2023.
- Luxury inventory ($1M+) doubled to 6 months supply in 2023.
- National seller's market share (under 5 months supply) dropped to 15% metro areas in 2024.
- New listings per day averaged 40,000 in March 2024, up 10% YoY.
- Total U.S. vacant homes for sale were 1.2 million in 2023 Census data.
- Existing-home active inventory per NAR was 28.2% above 2019 levels in Feb 2024.
- Southern region had 4.2 months supply of existing homes in Q1 2024.
Inventory Levels Interpretation
While the historically tight market is finally cracking open with inventory rising faster than a nervous seller's discount, the persistent shortage of available homes means buyers shouldn't expect a bargain bin free-for-all just yet.
Median Home Prices
- National median home price hit $389,800 in February 2024, up 5.4% YoY.
- U.S. average home sales price in 2023 was $499,600 for existing homes.
- New home median sales price reached $414,300 in March 2024, down 2.9% YoY.
- Year-over-year median price growth slowed to 3.8% in Q1 2024 nationally.
- U.S. median price per square foot for sold homes was $239 in 2023.
- Existing-home median price in Northeast was $415,200 in February 2024, up 9.0% YoY.
- National median list price for homes in March 2024 was $425,000, per Realtor.com.
- Average sales price for U.S. single-family homes was $417,700 in 2023.
- Median price of homes sold to first-time buyers was $320,000 in 2023 NAR survey.
- U.S. median home price peaked at $402,300 in June 2023 before slight decline.
- New home average sales price was $528,300 in 2023, 21% above existing.
- Year-end 2023 median sales price for condos was $345,000 nationally.
- Q4 2023 median home price rose 6.2% YoY to $393,500.
- Median price growth for starter homes (<$300k) slowed to 2.5% in 2023.
- Luxury median price ($1M+) surged 8.5% YoY to $1.95M in Q1 2024.
- National median price-to-income ratio for homebuyers reached 5.6 in 2023.
- Existing-home prices rose 4.4% YoY in January 2024 to $384,500 median.
- Average price per square foot increased 5.1% YoY to $245 in February 2024.
- Median sales price in Midwest was $295,200 in February 2024, up 4.7% YoY.
- U.S. median home value per Zillow was $347,179 end of 2023.
- Home price index (Case-Shiller) rose 5.1% YoY in December 2023.
- Median price for all-cash sales was 10% higher than financed in 2023.
- National median closing price in Q1 2024 was $398,500, up 4.9% YoY.
- Existing homes sold above list price dropped to 28% in 2023 from 50% in 2022.
- Median home price in West region was $525,000 in February 2024, down 0.2% YoY.
- U.S. active listings median price was $430,000 in March 2024.
Median Home Prices Interpretation
While the American dream of homeownership remains a hot commodity—evidenced by luxury prices soaring near $2 million—the market's frantic sprint is now showing signs of a stitch in its side, with first-time buyers left panting at the sidelines as median prices stubbornly climb despite the slight moderation in growth.
National Sales Volume
- In 2023, U.S. existing-home sales reached 4.09 million units, marking a 19.0% decline from 5.03 million in 2022, the lowest since 1995.
- New single-family home sales in the U.S. totaled 668,000 units in 2023, up 3.1% from 2022 but still below pre-pandemic averages.
- Total U.S. home sales (existing and new) in Q4 2023 were 1.02 million units, down 4.3% year-over-year.
- Pending home sales index for the U.S. stood at 71.5 in December 2023, down 4.2% from November.
- U.S. homes sold in January 2024 numbered 4.00 million at a seasonally adjusted annual rate, up 3.1% from December 2023.
- Existing-home sales in February 2024 were 4.38 million units annually, up 9.3% month-over-month but down 4.3% year-over-year.
- New home sales in March 2024 hit 693,000 units seasonally adjusted annual rate, highest since October 2023.
- U.S. home sales pace in Q1 2024 averaged 4.15 million units annually, reflecting slight recovery amid high rates.
- Existing condo sales in 2023 totaled 490,000 units, down 12% from 2022.
- Total U.S. single-family home sales in 2023 were 3.60 million existing plus 668,000 new, totaling 4.27 million.
- Months' supply of existing homes reached 3.9 months in January 2024, up from 3.6 in December.
- U.S. home sales fell to 4.09 million in 2023 from pandemic peak of 6.0 million in 2021.
- Signed contracts for homes in February 2024 rose 6.5% month-over-month per pending sales index of 75.4.
- New home sales months' supply was 8.1 months in March 2024, indicating balanced market.
- Existing-home sales in the South region totaled 1.75 million in 2023, 43% of national total.
- U.S. total housing starts influencing sales were 1.41 million units in 2023.
- Home sales closings in Q3 2023 dropped 14% year-over-year to 950,000 units.
- Repeat sales index showed U.S. home sales volume down 18% in 2023 vs 2022.
- U.S. all-cash home sales represented 33% of transactions in Q1 2024.
- Distressed sales (foreclosures/short sales) were only 2% of U.S. home sales in 2023.
- Median days on market for U.S. homes sold in 2023 was 52 days, up from 29 in 2021.
- U.S. home sales per 1,000 population in 2023 was 12.3, down from 18.2 in 2021.
- Existing single-family sales dominated at 85% of total existing sales in 2023.
- New multifamily sales added negligible volume to overall home sales in 2023.
- U.S. luxury home sales ($1M+) fell 50% in 2023 from 2022 peaks.
- First-time buyer sales share dropped to 27% of total in 2023 NAR survey.
- Total U.S. home sales contracts signed in 2023 were down 20% per NAR index.
- Seasonal adjustment showed Q2 2023 sales peak at 4.15 million annual rate.
- U.S. home sales growth rate was -18.9% in 2023, worst since 2008.
- Existing-home sales inventory at 1.01 million units end of 2023, up 20% YoY.
National Sales Volume Interpretation
The housing market took a long nap after its pandemic fever dream, woke up with a stiff 19% hangover in 2023, and is now cautiously sipping water—with new construction offering a hesitant straw—as it stares down the daunting stairs of mortgage rates.
Regional Differences
- Existing-home sales in the Northeast totaled 610,000 units in 2023.
- Midwest home sales reached 1.10 million units in 2023, down 15% YoY.
- South region dominated with 2.00 million existing sales in 2023, 49% national share.
- Western U.S. existing-home sales were 890,000 in 2023, sharpest 24% YoY drop.
- Florida home sales volume fell 20% in 2023 to 450,000 units statewide.
- Texas single-family sales hit 300,000 in 2023, up 5% despite national decline.
- California existing sales totaled 280,000 in 2023, down 25% YoY amid high prices.
- New York metro area sales dropped 18% to 110,000 homes in 2023.
- Atlanta MSA sales were 45,000 in Q4 2023, flat YoY.
- Phoenix home sales fell 15% YoY to 65,000 in 2023 after boom.
- Midwest states like Ohio saw 8% sales growth in rural areas 2023.
- Sun Belt sales share rose to 55% of national total in 2023.
- Northeast condo sales declined 10% less than single-family in 2023.
- Denver metro sales volume 55,000 in 2023, down 2% YoY.
- Seattle area sales plunged 28% to 40,000 homes in 2023.
- Florida Panhandle sales up 12% YoY in 2023 vs state average.
- Rust Belt cities like Detroit saw 15% sales increase in 2023.
- Austin TX sales fell 22% to 35,000 in 2023 post-migration peak.
- Las Vegas sales stable at 28,000 in 2023, down only 1%.
- Midwest inventory growth led nation at 30% YoY in Q1 2024.
- Boise ID sales dropped 25% to 15,000 after 2021-22 surge.
- Northeast median days on market 45 days vs West's 35 in 2023.
- South Carolina coastal sales up 10% to 80,000 statewide 2023.
- Pacific Northwest new home sales share 25% of total vs 15% national.
- Chicago metro sales 90,000 in 2023, up 5% in suburbs.
- Miami-Dade sales 45,000 condos/single-family combined 2023.
- Existing-home sales in South rose 2% MoM in February 2024.
Regional Differences Interpretation
The nation's housing market in 2023 was a tale of two suns, with the South continuing to shine bright as the dominant region while the once-red-hot West and certain pandemic boomtowns saw their fortunes cool sharply, though not without a few surprising pockets of resilience and growth.
Sources & References
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