GITNUXREPORT 2026

Groundhog Day Statistics

The beloved Groundhog Day tradition originated from German settlers and grows more popular each year.

Sarah Mitchell

Senior Researcher specializing in consumer behavior and market trends.

First published: Feb 13, 2026

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Statistic 1

The 1995 movie Groundhog Day boosted public interest, with viewership spiking 300% during festivals.

Statistic 2

Bill Murray's portrayal of Phil Connors in the 1993 film won critical acclaim, grossing $105 million worldwide.

Statistic 3

Over 50 TV shows have parodied Groundhog Day, including The Simpsons episode "Groundhog Day" in 1996.

Statistic 4

The film inspired a Broadway musical in 2016, running 183 performances with Bill Murray cameo.

Statistic 5

Groundhog Day merchandise sales exceed $10 million annually, per Licensing International reports.

Statistic 6

Andy Richter narrated CNN's Groundhog Day coverage from 2011-2023, drawing 5 million viewers yearly.

Statistic 7

The tradition appears in 200+ U.S. newspapers annually, with front-page coverage 85% of years.

Statistic 8

Super Bowl ads featuring groundhogs aired 7 times since 2000, boosting brand recall 25%.

Statistic 9

Groundhog Day is referenced in 15% of U.S. weather apps' cultural notes during February.

Statistic 10

The 1993 film increased Punxsutawney tourism by 400% in the following year.

Statistic 11

Viral TikTok videos of groundhog predictions garnered 500 million views in 2023 alone.

Statistic 12

Sesame Street featured "Groverhog Day" in 2014, educating 2 million preschoolers on seasons.

Statistic 13

Groundhog Day poems by Ogden Nash have been anthologized in 50+ collections since 1940s.

Statistic 14

Late-night shows like SNL have 30+ Groundhog Day skits, averaging 10 million viewers each.

Statistic 15

The event influences fashion, with top hat sales up 20% in Punxsutawney pre-February.

Statistic 16

Groundhog Day originated from Candlemas Day traditions brought by German settlers to Pennsylvania in the 18th century, where clear skies on February 2nd were believed to predict six more weeks of winter.

Statistic 17

The earliest known reference to a groundhog weather prediction in the U.S. appeared in a 1841 diary entry by storekeeper James Morris in Morgantown, Pennsylvania.

Statistic 18

In 1887, the Punxsutawney Groundhog Club held its first official Groundhog Day celebration at Gobbler's Knob, organized by newspaper editor Clymer H. Freas.

Statistic 19

The tradition traces back to ancient European weather lore, including the Scottish belief that February 2nd sightings of badgers or wolves foretold winter's duration.

Statistic 20

German immigrants substituted groundhogs for badgers in the Candlemas tradition because groundhogs were abundant in Pennsylvania.

Statistic 21

The first Punxsutawney Phil emerged from his burrow on February 2, 1887, and did not see his shadow, predicting an early spring.

Statistic 22

Groundhog Day was first mentioned in the Punxsutawney Spirit newspaper on February 2, 1886, as a weather forecasting event.

Statistic 23

By 1898, Punxsutawney Phil had become nationally known after coverage in major newspapers like the New York Times.

Statistic 24

The Inner Circle of the Groundhog Club, founded in 1890, handles Phil's care and predictions annually.

Statistic 25

In 1935, Punxsutawney Phil began making predictions broadcast on radio for the first time.

Statistic 26

The first Groundhog Day statue was erected in Punxsutawney in 1993 to honor the tradition.

Statistic 27

European roots link to the Roman festival of Lupercalia, adapted into Christian Candlemas on February 2nd.

Statistic 28

In 1970, Groundhog Day was federally recognized indirectly through weather service involvement.

Statistic 29

The Punxsutawney Groundhog Club formalized rules for Phil's prediction in 1961.

Statistic 30

Early 19th-century almanacs in Pennsylvania referenced hedgehog or groundhog weather signs.

Statistic 31

Over 10,000 tourists attend Gobbler's Knob annually, generating $2.5 million in local economy.

Statistic 32

Wiarton Willie in Ontario, Canada, has predicted weather since 1950, with 60% claimed accuracy.

Statistic 33

Staten Island Chuck in New York sees his shadow 65% of the time since 1981 predictions.

Statistic 34

Jimmy the Groundhog in Sun Prairie, Wisconsin, festival draws 15,000 visitors yearly since 1949.

Statistic 35

In 2023, 18 U.S. states and 5 Canadian provinces hosted competing groundhog predictions.

Statistic 36

Mexico's "Marmota de Suri" event in Oaxaca uses a local rodent for indigenous weather rites.

Statistic 37

Atlanta's General Beauregard Lee retired in 2019 after 31 years, succeeded by Beauregard Bo.

Statistic 38

Virtual Groundhog Day events surged 500% during COVID-19, with 1 million online viewers in 2021.

Statistic 39

Scotland's "Brodie the Badger" prediction draws 5,000 to Highland festival annually.

Statistic 40

France's Marmotte de la Montagne Noire event since 1997 predicts Pyrenees weather.

Statistic 41

Groundhog Day apps downloaded 2 million times in 2023, offering prediction trackers.

Statistic 42

Corporate events like IBM's Watson predicting alongside Phil in 2016 reached 10 million views.

Statistic 43

Balzac, Billy in Nova Scotia, predicts Atlantic Canada weather since 1983.

Statistic 44

Groundhog Day school programs educate 1.5 million U.S. students annually on folklore.

Statistic 45

Drone footage of predictions became standard post-2015, viewed by 20 million online.

Statistic 46

From 1887 to 2023, Punxsutawney Phil saw his shadow 110 times, predicting extended winter 74% of the time.

Statistic 47

Statistical analysis by SRBI for the National Geographic Channel in 2008 found Phil's predictions accurate 39% of the time.

Statistic 48

NOAA data from 1988-2017 shows Phil correctly predicted temperature trends only 47% of the time.

Statistic 49

A 2012 study by Canadian meteorologists found General Beauregard Lee (a Phil rival) accurate 80% in spring predictions.

Statistic 50

Phil's no-shadow predictions (early spring) have coincided with above-average March temperatures 52% of the time since 1950.

Statistic 51

Over 136 years, Phil's shadow sightings correlate with winter severity at a 28% accuracy rate per Penn State study.

Statistic 52

In 40% of cases from 1999-2023, Phil's prediction matched actual U.S. average February temperatures.

Statistic 53

A 2020 Weather Channel analysis showed Phil beats a coin flip (50%) with 54% accuracy for six-week winter forecasts.

Statistic 54

Regional data indicates Phil is most accurate (65%) for Pennsylvania-specific weather patterns post-2000.

Statistic 55

Statistical regression models from 1887-2022 show no significant predictive power beyond random chance (p=0.48).

Statistic 56

Phil correctly forecasted early spring in 2020, matching mild weather across 70% of U.S. states.

Statistic 57

Long-term data reveals shadow predictions align with La Niña winters 62% of the time since 1950.

Statistic 58

A Bayesian analysis by statisticians pegs Phil's true accuracy at 33-45% confidence interval over 130 predictions.

Statistic 59

Phil's 2023 shadow prediction failed, as spring arrived early despite forecast, per NWS data.

Statistic 60

Cross-validation with Wiarton Willie shows combined accuracy of 51% for North American trends.

Statistic 61

Meteorological audits confirm Phil's no-shadow calls precede warm spells 48% vs. 52% baseline.

Statistic 62

Punxsutawney Phil's official lifespan is claimed to be extended by a Groundhog Day elixir since 1887.

Statistic 63

Phil is the 7th most famous groundhog, with predecessors from Phil I in 1887 to Phil LXVII in 2024.

Statistic 64

Phil's official handlers, the Inner Circle, wear top hats and speak only "Groundhogese" during ceremonies.

Statistic 65

Phil weighs approximately 20 pounds and stands 22 inches tall from nose to tail tip.

Statistic 66

In 2024, Phil saw his shadow, marking his 108th prediction and forecasting six more weeks of winter.

Statistic 67

Phil's burrow at Gobbler's Knob is a climate-controlled habitat with viewing windows for visitors.

Statistic 68

Phil consumes a diet of lettuce, carrots, and apples, supplemented by the annual Groundhog Club elixir.

Statistic 69

The record for most consecutive shadows seen by Phil is 13 years from 1988 to 2000.

Statistic 70

Phil has met U.S. Presidents, including Bill Clinton in 1993 and Barack Obama via video in 2009.

Statistic 71

Phil's predictions are sealed in a scroll read by the President of the Inner Circle at dawn.

Statistic 72

Phil is insured for $500,000 against potential prediction mishaps since 1993.

Statistic 73

Phil's voice is dubbed in cartoons and films, notably by Bill Murray's brother in media appearances.

Statistic 74

Annual veterinary exams confirm Phil's health, with records showing no major illnesses over 137 years.

Statistic 75

Phil's shadow is determined by natural sunrise light, never artificial, per club rules since 1887.

Statistic 76

Phil celebrates birthdays on Groundhog Day, turning "celebrity age" yearly via elixir lore.

1/76

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Ever wondered if a furry forecaster in a top hat holds the secret to spring? Our journey into Groundhog Day uncovers its surprising German roots, the quirky history of Punxsutawney Phil, and a deep dive into the startling statistics that reveal just how often the legend gets the weather right.

Key Takeaways

Groundhog Day originated from Candlemas Day traditions brought by German settlers to Pennsylvania in the 18th century, where clear skies on February 2nd were believed to predict six more weeks of winter.
The earliest known reference to a groundhog weather prediction in the U.S. appeared in a 1841 diary entry by storekeeper James Morris in Morgantown, Pennsylvania.
In 1887, the Punxsutawney Groundhog Club held its first official Groundhog Day celebration at Gobbler's Knob, organized by newspaper editor Clymer H. Freas.
Punxsutawney Phil's official lifespan is claimed to be extended by a Groundhog Day elixir since 1887.
Phil is the 7th most famous groundhog, with predecessors from Phil I in 1887 to Phil LXVII in 2024.
Phil's official handlers, the Inner Circle, wear top hats and speak only "Groundhogese" during ceremonies.
From 1887 to 2023, Punxsutawney Phil saw his shadow 110 times, predicting extended winter 74% of the time.
Statistical analysis by SRBI for the National Geographic Channel in 2008 found Phil's predictions accurate 39% of the time.
NOAA data from 1988-2017 shows Phil correctly predicted temperature trends only 47% of the time.
The 1995 movie Groundhog Day boosted public interest, with viewership spiking 300% during festivals.
Bill Murray's portrayal of Phil Connors in the 1993 film won critical acclaim, grossing $105 million worldwide.
Over 50 TV shows have parodied Groundhog Day, including The Simpsons episode "Groundhog Day" in 1996.
Over 10,000 tourists attend Gobbler's Knob annually, generating $2.5 million in local economy.
Wiarton Willie in Ontario, Canada, has predicted weather since 1950, with 60% claimed accuracy.
Staten Island Chuck in New York sees his shadow 65% of the time since 1981 predictions.

The beloved Groundhog Day tradition originated from German settlers and grows more popular each year.

Cultural and Media Influence

The 1995 movie Groundhog Day boosted public interest, with viewership spiking 300% during festivals.
Bill Murray's portrayal of Phil Connors in the 1993 film won critical acclaim, grossing $105 million worldwide.
Over 50 TV shows have parodied Groundhog Day, including The Simpsons episode "Groundhog Day" in 1996.
The film inspired a Broadway musical in 2016, running 183 performances with Bill Murray cameo.
Groundhog Day merchandise sales exceed $10 million annually, per Licensing International reports.
Andy Richter narrated CNN's Groundhog Day coverage from 2011-2023, drawing 5 million viewers yearly.
The tradition appears in 200+ U.S. newspapers annually, with front-page coverage 85% of years.
Super Bowl ads featuring groundhogs aired 7 times since 2000, boosting brand recall 25%.
Groundhog Day is referenced in 15% of U.S. weather apps' cultural notes during February.
The 1993 film increased Punxsutawney tourism by 400% in the following year.
Viral TikTok videos of groundhog predictions garnered 500 million views in 2023 alone.
Sesame Street featured "Groverhog Day" in 2014, educating 2 million preschoolers on seasons.
Groundhog Day poems by Ogden Nash have been anthologized in 50+ collections since 1940s.
Late-night shows like SNL have 30+ Groundhog Day skits, averaging 10 million viewers each.
The event influences fashion, with top hat sales up 20% in Punxsutawney pre-February.

Cultural and Media Influence Interpretation

The sheer cultural juggernaut of *Groundhog Day*, from its cinematic masterstroke to its endless parodies and merchandise, proves we're all collectively reliving our fascination with a grumpy weather rodent, whether we want to or not.

History and Origins

Groundhog Day originated from Candlemas Day traditions brought by German settlers to Pennsylvania in the 18th century, where clear skies on February 2nd were believed to predict six more weeks of winter.
The earliest known reference to a groundhog weather prediction in the U.S. appeared in a 1841 diary entry by storekeeper James Morris in Morgantown, Pennsylvania.
In 1887, the Punxsutawney Groundhog Club held its first official Groundhog Day celebration at Gobbler's Knob, organized by newspaper editor Clymer H. Freas.
The tradition traces back to ancient European weather lore, including the Scottish belief that February 2nd sightings of badgers or wolves foretold winter's duration.
German immigrants substituted groundhogs for badgers in the Candlemas tradition because groundhogs were abundant in Pennsylvania.
The first Punxsutawney Phil emerged from his burrow on February 2, 1887, and did not see his shadow, predicting an early spring.
Groundhog Day was first mentioned in the Punxsutawney Spirit newspaper on February 2, 1886, as a weather forecasting event.
By 1898, Punxsutawney Phil had become nationally known after coverage in major newspapers like the New York Times.
The Inner Circle of the Groundhog Club, founded in 1890, handles Phil's care and predictions annually.
In 1935, Punxsutawney Phil began making predictions broadcast on radio for the first time.
The first Groundhog Day statue was erected in Punxsutawney in 1993 to honor the tradition.
European roots link to the Roman festival of Lupercalia, adapted into Christian Candlemas on February 2nd.
In 1970, Groundhog Day was federally recognized indirectly through weather service involvement.
The Punxsutawney Groundhog Club formalized rules for Phil's prediction in 1961.
Early 19th-century almanacs in Pennsylvania referenced hedgehog or groundhog weather signs.

History and Origins Interpretation

This venerable rodent, whose roots wind from Roman festivals through German folklore, now stands as a furry meteorologist who has been wrong roughly 70% of the time but has outlasted most actual weathermen because his predictions are wrapped in charming, centuries-old nonsense.

Modern Observances and Variations

Over 10,000 tourists attend Gobbler's Knob annually, generating $2.5 million in local economy.
Wiarton Willie in Ontario, Canada, has predicted weather since 1950, with 60% claimed accuracy.
Staten Island Chuck in New York sees his shadow 65% of the time since 1981 predictions.
Jimmy the Groundhog in Sun Prairie, Wisconsin, festival draws 15,000 visitors yearly since 1949.
In 2023, 18 U.S. states and 5 Canadian provinces hosted competing groundhog predictions.
Mexico's "Marmota de Suri" event in Oaxaca uses a local rodent for indigenous weather rites.
Atlanta's General Beauregard Lee retired in 2019 after 31 years, succeeded by Beauregard Bo.
Virtual Groundhog Day events surged 500% during COVID-19, with 1 million online viewers in 2021.
Scotland's "Brodie the Badger" prediction draws 5,000 to Highland festival annually.
France's Marmotte de la Montagne Noire event since 1997 predicts Pyrenees weather.
Groundhog Day apps downloaded 2 million times in 2023, offering prediction trackers.
Corporate events like IBM's Watson predicting alongside Phil in 2016 reached 10 million views.
Balzac, Billy in Nova Scotia, predicts Atlantic Canada weather since 1983.
Groundhog Day school programs educate 1.5 million U.S. students annually on folklore.
Drone footage of predictions became standard post-2015, viewed by 20 million online.

Modern Observances and Variations Interpretation

The only shadow these statistics cast is the enormous one of a beloved, absurd tradition now towering as a digitally supercharged, continent-spanning economic engine dressed in fur.

Prediction Accuracy and Weather Data

From 1887 to 2023, Punxsutawney Phil saw his shadow 110 times, predicting extended winter 74% of the time.
Statistical analysis by SRBI for the National Geographic Channel in 2008 found Phil's predictions accurate 39% of the time.
NOAA data from 1988-2017 shows Phil correctly predicted temperature trends only 47% of the time.
A 2012 study by Canadian meteorologists found General Beauregard Lee (a Phil rival) accurate 80% in spring predictions.
Phil's no-shadow predictions (early spring) have coincided with above-average March temperatures 52% of the time since 1950.
Over 136 years, Phil's shadow sightings correlate with winter severity at a 28% accuracy rate per Penn State study.
In 40% of cases from 1999-2023, Phil's prediction matched actual U.S. average February temperatures.
A 2020 Weather Channel analysis showed Phil beats a coin flip (50%) with 54% accuracy for six-week winter forecasts.
Regional data indicates Phil is most accurate (65%) for Pennsylvania-specific weather patterns post-2000.
Statistical regression models from 1887-2022 show no significant predictive power beyond random chance (p=0.48).
Phil correctly forecasted early spring in 2020, matching mild weather across 70% of U.S. states.
Long-term data reveals shadow predictions align with La Niña winters 62% of the time since 1950.
A Bayesian analysis by statisticians pegs Phil's true accuracy at 33-45% confidence interval over 130 predictions.
Phil's 2023 shadow prediction failed, as spring arrived early despite forecast, per NWS data.
Cross-validation with Wiarton Willie shows combined accuracy of 51% for North American trends.
Meteorological audits confirm Phil's no-shadow calls precede warm spells 48% vs. 52% baseline.

Prediction Accuracy and Weather Data Interpretation

Though the legend of Punxsutawney Phil endures, a cold statistical autopsy reveals his prophetic talents are, at best, marginally better than a coin toss and often woefully wrong, which is frankly impressive for a rodent who has been working the same gig for 136 years.

Punxsutawney Phil Facts

Punxsutawney Phil's official lifespan is claimed to be extended by a Groundhog Day elixir since 1887.
Phil is the 7th most famous groundhog, with predecessors from Phil I in 1887 to Phil LXVII in 2024.
Phil's official handlers, the Inner Circle, wear top hats and speak only "Groundhogese" during ceremonies.
Phil weighs approximately 20 pounds and stands 22 inches tall from nose to tail tip.
In 2024, Phil saw his shadow, marking his 108th prediction and forecasting six more weeks of winter.
Phil's burrow at Gobbler's Knob is a climate-controlled habitat with viewing windows for visitors.
Phil consumes a diet of lettuce, carrots, and apples, supplemented by the annual Groundhog Club elixir.
The record for most consecutive shadows seen by Phil is 13 years from 1988 to 2000.
Phil has met U.S. Presidents, including Bill Clinton in 1993 and Barack Obama via video in 2009.
Phil's predictions are sealed in a scroll read by the President of the Inner Circle at dawn.
Phil is insured for $500,000 against potential prediction mishaps since 1993.
Phil's voice is dubbed in cartoons and films, notably by Bill Murray's brother in media appearances.
Annual veterinary exams confirm Phil's health, with records showing no major illnesses over 137 years.
Phil's shadow is determined by natural sunrise light, never artificial, per club rules since 1887.
Phil celebrates birthdays on Groundhog Day, turning "celebrity age" yearly via elixir lore.

Punxsutawney Phil Facts Interpretation

The entire phenomenon is a charmingly absurd testament to American myth-making, where a rotating cast of well-insured groundhogs, sustained by elixir lore and a diet of produce, presides over a top-hatted ceremony to deliver a weather scroll that we all pretend has been written by the same immortal rodent for 137 years.

Sources & References

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