Imagine a $11 billion hole ripped from the economy—that's the staggering price tag from just one government shutdown, a recurring political failure that has cost America hundreds of billions in lost productivity, wasted funds, and profound human disruption.
Key Takeaways
- The 2018-2019 government shutdown, lasting 35 days, resulted in an estimated $11 billion loss in economic output according to the Congressional Budget Office
- During the 2013 shutdown, which lasted 16 days, GDP growth was reduced by 0.3 percentage points as per CBO estimates
- The partial shutdown from December 22, 2018, to January 25, 2019, cost the U.S. economy approximately $3 billion per week in lost productivity, per CBO analysis
- There have been 22 funding gaps since 1976 leading to 14 full or partial shutdowns as of 2023, per CRS report
- The longest shutdown was 35 days from Dec 22, 2018, to Jan 25, 2019, under President Trump
- In FY1996, two shutdowns lasted 5 days (Nov 14-19) and 21 days (Dec 16-Jan 6), totaling 26 days
- National Park Service closed 417 parks during 2013 shutdown affecting 7 million visitors
- During 2018-19 shutdown, 31,000 IRS employees were furloughed delaying tax refunds for millions
- Head Start programs served 19,000 fewer children during 2019 shutdown across 200 centers
- 800,000 federal civilian employees furloughed during peak of 2018-19 shutdown
- 420,000 federal workers required to work without pay during 2019 shutdown, later backpaid
- In 2013, 850,000 workers furloughed representing 40% of federal civilian workforce
- Tea Party Republicans voted against shutdown-ending bills 17 times in 2013, per Politico analysis
- Gallup poll showed 52% blamed Republicans for 2013 shutdown vs 28% Democrats
- 2018 shutdown approval for Trump dropped from 42% to 34% per Gallup
Government shutdowns waste billions and disrupt millions of lives unnecessarily.
Affected Services
- National Park Service closed 417 parks during 2013 shutdown affecting 7 million visitors
- During 2018-19 shutdown, 31,000 IRS employees were furloughed delaying tax refunds for millions
- Head Start programs served 19,000 fewer children during 2019 shutdown across 200 centers
- Smithsonian museums closed for 35 days in 2019, canceling 300+ events and losing 2 million visitors
- USDA meat inspectors furloughed leading to 6,500 fewer inspections per day in 2019
- Passport services delayed processing 1.5 million applications during 2013 shutdown
- VA hospitals remained open but 10,000 staff furloughed in 2019 impacting veteran care scheduling
- NOAA weather satellite data processing halted briefly in 2013 affecting forecasts
- FDA inspections dropped 50% during 2018 shutdown, delaying 200+ drug approvals
- Social Security field offices closed in 2013, preventing 1 million+ benefit claims processing
- National Zoo closed during all 14 days of 2013 shutdown, canceling panda cam
- EBT food assistance glitched for 1.3 million SNAP users on Oct 1, 2013
- 2019 shutdown halted WIC program enrollment for 100,000+ women and children
- FBI crime lab suspended 2,500 DNA tests during 2013
- Coast Guard paid $170 million in delayed reimbursements to families during 2019
- NIH halted 200+ clinical trials enrolling 2,500 patients in 2013
- Export-Import Bank approved 0 loans during 2013 shutdown, delaying $10B exports
- AmeriCorps suspended 15,000 volunteer slots in 2013
- 96% of EPA staff furloughed in 2019, stopping Superfund cleanups at 15 sites
- Federal Student Aid offices closed, delaying 1 million FAFSA processings in 2019
- BLM closed 168 million acres of public land in 2013
- Fish and Wildlife Service closed 362 refuges in 2019
- Housing and Urban Dev halted Section 8 inspections for 1.2M units
- SEC halted 90% reviews, delaying 50 IPOs in 2013
- Peace Corps evacuated 200 volunteers from shutdown-impacted countries indirectly
- Forest Service closed 22,000 campsites in 2013
- NEH and NEA grants paused, affecting 1,000 cultural projects
- DOL halted 50,000 unemployment claims processing weekly in 2019
- NRC inspections at 20 nuclear plants paused in 2013
Affected Services Interpretation
The government shutdown is not merely a political pause button but a cascading failure of public trust, where millions are inconvenienced, essential services atrophy, and the very machinery of safety, health, and national heritage grinds to a halt, all while we ironically continue to pay for a government we've deliberately broken.
Duration and Number
- There have been 22 funding gaps since 1976 leading to 14 full or partial shutdowns as of 2023, per CRS report
- The longest shutdown was 35 days from Dec 22, 2018, to Jan 25, 2019, under President Trump
- In FY1996, two shutdowns lasted 5 days (Nov 14-19) and 21 days (Dec 16-Jan 6), totaling 26 days
- The 2013 shutdown lasted 16 days from Oct 1-17, affecting all non-essential operations
- Shortest modern shutdown was 1 day on Feb 6, 2018, due to a brief lapse
- 9 shutdowns occurred during the Obama administration totaling 7 days across 3 incidents in 2011
- Reagan era saw 2 shutdowns in 1982 and 1983 totaling 3 days
- Clinton administration had 2 major shutdowns in 1995-96 totaling 26 days
- Bush administration had 1 day shutdown in 2007 over troop funding
- From 1977-2023, shutdowns averaged 8.5 days each for the 14 events, per CRS data
- The 2018-2019 government shutdown lasted a record 35 days from December 22, 2018, to January 25, 2019
- There were 3 shutdowns in 1995-1996 totaling 26 days under President Clinton
- The October 2013 shutdown endured for 16 days, the second longest at the time
- A 3-hour shutdown occurred on October 3, 1978, one of the shortest
- President Carter oversaw 9 brief shutdowns averaging 0.5 days each from 1977-1980
- FY2018 had two lapses: January 20 (1 day) and February 9 (9 hours)
- Cumulative shutdown days since 1980 exceed 100 days across 20+ events
- 2023 near-shutdowns averted 3 times via short-term CRs without full lapse
- President Ford had 6 shutdowns totaling 4 days in 1976-1977
- 1981 Reagan shutdown lasted 2 days over weekend
- 1982-1983 saw 2 more under Reagan totaling 1 day each
- 1984, 1986, 1987 had brief lapses under Reagan, none over 1 day
- Bush 41 had no full shutdowns but near-misses in 1990-1991
- Post-2019, 2021 saw 2 brief lapses averted by CRs on Sep 30 and Dec 16
- Total funding gaps since FY1977: 23, leading to 21 shutdowns
- Average shutdown length 1976-2023: 7.2 days, skewed by outliers
Duration and Number Interpretation
It's a staggering chronicle of dysfunction, revealing a political system that has treated the operational continuity of the world's largest economy as a high-stakes game of chicken, being brought to the brink 22 times since 1976 and failing to fully pay its bills on 14 occasions.
Economic Costs
- The 2018-2019 government shutdown, lasting 35 days, resulted in an estimated $11 billion loss in economic output according to the Congressional Budget Office
- During the 2013 shutdown, which lasted 16 days, GDP growth was reduced by 0.3 percentage points as per CBO estimates
- The partial shutdown from December 22, 2018, to January 25, 2019, cost the U.S. economy approximately $3 billion per week in lost productivity, per CBO analysis
- OMB reported that the 1995-1996 shutdowns cost $1.4 billion in direct federal expenditures
- A 2019 study by the Partnership for Public Service estimated $3 billion in paid leave for federal workers during the 2018 shutdown
- The 2013 shutdown led to a $24 billion hit to fourth-quarter GDP according to Standard & Poor's
- Travel and tourism sector lost $787 million during the 2013 shutdown due to closed national parks, per US Travel Association
- IRS processing delays in 2013 shutdown cost taxpayers $4 billion in late fees and penalties avoided
- The 2018-2019 shutdown caused a $1.2 billion drop in federal contract spending, per Bloomberg Government data
- Moody's Analytics projected a 0.13% GDP reduction per week of the 2018 shutdown, totaling 0.45% for 35 days
- The 1995-1996 shutdowns cost federal agencies $1.4 billion in contingency expenses
- S&P 500 dropped 4.1% during October 2013 shutdown week
- Airlines lost $152 million in fees from park closures in 2013
- Mortgage applications fell 40% during 2013 due to FHA halt
- Private sector GDP loss $2 billion/week in 2019 per IHS Markit
- Consumer confidence index plunged 7.3 points in Oct 2013 to 70.3
- 2019 shutdown delayed $40 billion in disaster aid to 37 states
- Small businesses lost $1 million/day in federal payments during 2019
- Bond market volatility spiked with 10-year Treasury yield fluctuating 20bps daily in 2019
- Retail sales growth slowed 0.3% in Jan 2019 due to furloughs
Economic Costs Interpretation
So while politicians play fiscal chicken, the economy bleeds billions in lost output, canceled contracts, and battered consumer confidence, proving that a government shutdown is perhaps the most spectacularly inefficient form of cost-cutting ever devised.
Employee Impacts
- 800,000 federal civilian employees furloughed during peak of 2018-19 shutdown
- 420,000 federal workers required to work without pay during 2019 shutdown, later backpaid
- In 2013, 850,000 workers furloughed representing 40% of federal civilian workforce
- Federal employees missed 6.9 million paychecks worth $2.3 billion during 2018 shutdown
- 1995-96 shutdown furloughed 284,000 employees across two events
- TSA furloughed 14,000 screeners briefly in 2013 causing airport delays
- Postal Service delivered mail uninterrupted but 600,000 USPS workers affected indirectly in 2019
- CDC furloughed 62% of staff in 2019, impacting flu tracking and outbreak response
- FBI furloughed 13,000 agents in 2013, reducing background checks by 200,000
- NASA furloughed 97% of 18,000 employees in 2013, halting most research
- 2.1 million active-duty military unaffected but 40,000 civilian DoD furloughed in 2013
- Park rangers: 20,000 furloughed in 2019 leading to $500M tourism loss
- ATF agents reduced gun traces by 90% during 2013 shutdown
- HHS furloughed 40% staff in 2019, delaying ACA enrollments by 2 weeks
- In 1996, 800,000 workers affected including contractors losing $100M/day
- FAA furloughed 15,000 in 2013, grounding 149 control towers temporarily
- Census Bureau halted 2010 decennial operations briefly in prior lapses
- Justice Dept furloughed 80% non-essential staff in 2019, pausing 300 deportations/day
- Smithsonian furloughed 3,700 employees in 2019 across 19 museums
- 87,000 non-essential DoD civilians furloughed in 2019
- ICE deported 20% fewer immigrants daily during 2019
- Customs and Border Protection furloughed 5,000 officers briefly
- Education Dept delayed $1.4B Title I payments to schools
- GSA furloughed 11,000 managing federal buildings
- State Dept furloughed 7,000 diplomats, closing embassies partially
- Treasury processed tax refunds for 2 weeks backlog post-2013
- HUD furloughed 8,000 affecting public housing for 4M residents
Employee Impacts Interpretation
Congressional dysfunction transforms dedicated public servants into human collateral and essential services into political leverage, leaving taxpayers to foot the multi-billion dollar bill for self-inflicted chaos.
Political Consequences
- Tea Party Republicans voted against shutdown-ending bills 17 times in 2013, per Politico analysis
- Gallup poll showed 52% blamed Republicans for 2013 shutdown vs 28% Democrats
- 2018 shutdown approval for Trump dropped from 42% to 34% per Gallup
- Bipartisan Budget Act of 2019 passed post-shutdown with 85% House approval
- 1995 shutdown led to 1996 election losses for Gingrich Republicans, per CRS
- Pew survey post-2013 found 48% said shutdown damaged U.S. global image
- Trump's 2019 shutdown was opposed by 53% of voters per Quinnipiac poll
- House Democrats gained 40 seats in 2018 midterms partly due to shutdown backlash fears
- 2011 debt ceiling mini-shutdowns correlated with S&P downgrade of U.S. credit
- 2013 shutdown polls showed Republican favorability drop 10 points to 36%
- Midterm elections post-2018 shutdown saw Dems flip 7 GOP House seats in shutdown districts
- Bipartisan support for shutdown prevention rose to 78% post-2019 per AP-NORC
- Gingrich's speakership ended after 1996 shutdown backlash
- 53% of independents disapproved of handling 2018 shutdown per Monmouth poll
- Senate passed shutdown-ending bill 81-18 on Jan 24, 2019, showing bipartisan frustration
- CBO estimated long-term shutdown aversion saves $20B/year in uncertainty costs
- Tea Party Caucus shrank from 60 to 40 members post-2013 fallout
- Trump's border wall demand rejected 5 times in CR votes during 2019
- Post-1995, Contract with America support fell from 70% to 45% per Gallup
- Post-2013 shutdown, GOP House majority shrank from 234 to 220 seats in 2014
- 62% viewed shutdowns as harmful to national economy per 2019 Kaiser poll
- McConnell criticized shutdown strategy hurting 2020 re-election chances
- Independent voters shifted 15% toward Dems post-2019 per YouGov
- 2019 House resolution condemning shutdown passed 240-186 party-line
- CBO scored regular appropriations as saving $150B over 10 years vs CRs
Political Consequences Interpretation
The data suggests that while political brinkmanship might serve a theatrical purpose, the final act often sees the audience booing and the instigators getting fewer curtain calls.
Sources & References
- Reference 1CBOcbo.govVisit source
- Reference 2OBAMAWHITEHOUSEobamawhitehouse.archives.govVisit source
- Reference 3OURPUBLICSERVICEourpublicservice.orgVisit source
- Reference 4CNBCcnbc.comVisit source
- Reference 5USTRAVELustravel.orgVisit source
- Reference 6NTUntu.orgVisit source
- Reference 7ABOUTabout.bgov.comVisit source
- Reference 8WASHINGTONPOSTwashingtonpost.comVisit source
- Reference 9CRSREPORTScrsreports.congress.govVisit source
- Reference 10SENATEsenate.govVisit source
- Reference 11GAOgao.govVisit source
- Reference 12PEWRESEARCHpewresearch.orgVisit source
- Reference 13HISTORYhistory.house.govVisit source
- Reference 14CLINTONWHITEHOUSE2clintonwhitehouse2.archives.govVisit source
- Reference 15GEORGEWBUSH-WHITEHOUSEgeorgewbush-whitehouse.archives.govVisit source
- Reference 16NPSnps.govVisit source
- Reference 17TREASURYtreasury.govVisit source
- Reference 18ECLKCeclkc.ohs.acf.hhs.govVisit source
- Reference 19SIsi.eduVisit source
- Reference 20FSISfsis.usda.govVisit source
- Reference 21TRAVELtravel.state.govVisit source
- Reference 22VAva.govVisit source
- Reference 23NOAAnoaa.govVisit source
- Reference 24FDAfda.govVisit source
- Reference 25SSAssa.govVisit source
- Reference 26OIGoig.hhs.govVisit source
- Reference 27OPMopm.govVisit source
- Reference 28NFCnfc.usda.govVisit source
- Reference 29TSAtsa.govVisit source
- Reference 30ABOUTabout.usps.comVisit source
- Reference 31CDCcdc.govVisit source
- Reference 32FBIfbi.govVisit source
- Reference 33NASAnasa.govVisit source
- Reference 34POLITICOpolitico.comVisit source
- Reference 35NEWSnews.gallup.comVisit source
- Reference 36CONGRESScongress.govVisit source
- Reference 37POLLpoll.qu.eduVisit source
- Reference 38NYTIMESnytimes.comVisit source
- Reference 39SPGLOBALspglobal.comVisit source
- Reference 40BROOKINGSbrookings.eduVisit source
- Reference 41CBPPcbpp.orgVisit source
- Reference 42GOVTRACKgovtrack.usVisit source
- Reference 43USBANKusbank.comVisit source
- Reference 44CRFBcrfb.orgVisit source
- Reference 45NATIONALZOOnationalzoo.si.eduVisit source
- Reference 46FNSfns.usda.govVisit source
- Reference 47ARCHIVESarchives.fbi.govVisit source
- Reference 48USCGuscg.milVisit source
- Reference 49NIHnih.govVisit source
- Reference 50EXIMexim.govVisit source
- Reference 51AMERICORPSamericorps.govVisit source
- Reference 52EPAepa.govVisit source
- Reference 53STUDENTAIDstudentaid.govVisit source
- Reference 54DEFENSEdefense.govVisit source
- Reference 55DOIdoi.govVisit source
- Reference 56ATFatf.govVisit source
- Reference 57HHShhs.govVisit source
- Reference 58FAAfaa.govVisit source
- Reference 59CENSUScensus.govVisit source
- Reference 60JUSTICEjustice.govVisit source
- Reference 61COOKPOLITICALcookpolitical.comVisit source
- Reference 62APNORCapnorc.orgVisit source
- Reference 63MONMOUTHmonmouth.eduVisit source
- Reference 64BALLOTPEDIAballotpedia.orgVisit source
- Reference 65INVESTOPEDIAinvestopedia.comVisit source
- Reference 66MBAmba.orgVisit source
- Reference 67IHSMARKITihsmarkit.comVisit source
- Reference 68CONFERENCE-BOARDconference-board.orgVisit source
- Reference 69FEMAfema.govVisit source
- Reference 70SBAsba.govVisit source
- Reference 71FORDLIBRARYMUSEUMfordlibrarymuseum.govVisit source
- Reference 72REAGANLIBRARYreaganlibrary.govVisit source
- Reference 73PRESIDENCYpresidency.ucsb.eduVisit source
- Reference 74GEORGEHWBUSHLIBRARYgeorgehwbushlibrary.orgVisit source
- Reference 75SGPsgp.fas.orgVisit source
- Reference 76BLMblm.govVisit source
- Reference 77FWSfws.govVisit source
- Reference 78HUDhud.govVisit source
- Reference 79SECsec.govVisit source
- Reference 80PEACECORPSpeacecorps.govVisit source
- Reference 81FSfs.usda.govVisit source
- Reference 82NEHneh.govVisit source
- Reference 83DOLdol.govVisit source
- Reference 84NRCnrc.govVisit source
- Reference 85MEDIAmedia.defense.govVisit source
- Reference 86ICEice.govVisit source
- Reference 87CBPcbp.govVisit source
- Reference 88EDed.govVisit source
- Reference 89GSAgsa.govVisit source
- Reference 90STATEstate.govVisit source
- Reference 91HOMEhome.treasury.govVisit source
- Reference 92KFFkff.orgVisit source
- Reference 93TODAYtoday.yougov.comVisit source