While the world's refining capacity quietly surpassed 102 million barrels per day in 2022, a seismic shift was underway beneath the surface as China dethroned the United States to become the planet's largest refiner, signaling a dramatic realignment in the global downstream energy landscape.
Key Takeaways
- Global refining capacity stood at 102.5 million barrels per day (mb/d) in 2022, up 1.2% from 2021.
- U.S. refinery capacity was 18.4 million bpd operable atmospheric crude distillation capacity as of January 1, 2023.
- China's refining capacity increased to 18.4 mb/d in 2022, making it the world's largest refiner.
- Global petrochemical production capacity for ethylene was 200 million tons in 2022.
- U.S. ethylene production capacity reached 28 million metric tons per year (mmtpa) in 2023.
- China's petrochemical capacity for paraxylene (PX) was 32 mmtpa in 2022.
- World gasoline demand was 26.3 mb/d in 2022.
- U.S. gasoline consumption averaged 8.8 mb/d in 2022.
- China's diesel demand peaked at 4.5 mb/d in 2022.
- Global downstream revenue reached $4.2 trillion in 2022.
- U.S. downstream sector market size was $1.1 trillion in 2022.
- Global refining margins in Singapore averaged $8.50/bbl in 2022.
- Global CO2 emissions from refining were 1.2 Gt in 2022.
- U.S. refineries emitted 180 million metric tons CO2 in 2022.
- Europe's refineries reduced SOx emissions by 70% since 2005.
The downstream energy industry showed contrasting regional growth and strong refining margins in 2022.
Economics and Markets
- Global downstream revenue reached $4.2 trillion in 2022.
- U.S. downstream sector market size was $1.1 trillion in 2022.
- Global refining margins in Singapore averaged $8.50/bbl in 2022.
- ExxonMobil downstream earnings were $16.8 billion in 2022.
- Shell's downstream segment profit hit $24.4 billion in 2022.
- Global gasoline retail margin averaged 15 cents/gallon in 2022.
- U.S. refiner acquisition cost of crude (RAC) averaged $95/bbl in 2022.
- BP downstream trading and supply profit was $19.2 billion in 2022.
- World downstream M&A deals totaled $120 billion in 2022.
- Chevron downstream earnings rose 150% to $10.8 billion in 2022.
- Global fuel retail market size was $2.8 trillion in 2022.
- U.S. gasoline wholesale rack price averaged $3.10/gal in 2022.
- TotalEnergies downstream results were €35.6 billion in 2022.
- Global crack spreads (3:2:1) averaged $25/bbl in 2022.
- Phillips 66 downstream adjusted earnings $8.1 billion in 2022.
- Europe fuel retail turnover grew 25% in 2022 due to prices.
- U.S. downstream capex was $45 billion in 2022.
- Global petrochemical prices rose 20% on average in 2022.
- Marathon Petroleum downstream income $18.4 billion in 2022.
Economics and Markets Interpretation
The downstream oil sector spent 2022 expertly navigating the chaos it helped create, proving that while the world fretted over volatile energy prices, it was busily minting trillion-dollar revenues and refining the art of turning crude into staggering profits.
Environment and Regulation
- Global CO2 emissions from refining were 1.2 Gt in 2022.
- U.S. refineries emitted 180 million metric tons CO2 in 2022.
- Europe's refineries reduced SOx emissions by 70% since 2005.
- Global biofuel blending in gasoline reached 12% average in 2022.
- U.S. refinery sulfur content in diesel <10 ppm for 95% output in 2022.
- China imposed Tier 3 gasoline standards nationwide in 2023.
- Global flaring from downstream operations was 140 bcm in 2022.
- EU ETS covered 40% of refinery emissions with 25% reduction target by 2030.
- U.S. renewable diesel production hit 3 billion gallons in 2022.
- India's BS-VI fuel standards reduced NOx by 50% from refineries since 2020.
- Global refinery water usage averaged 0.3 barrels per barrel processed in 2022.
- California's Low Carbon Fuel Standard drove 20% renewable content in diesel 2022.
- World downstream methane emissions estimated at 20 Mt in 2022.
- Singapore refineries achieved 99% sulfur recovery rate in 2022.
- U.S. EPA fined refineries $150 million for violations in 2022.
- Global low-sulfur fuel oil demand post-IM O2020 was 3.8 mb/d in 2022.
- Europe's refineries invested €10 billion in green hydrogen by 2030 plans.
- U.S. RFS mandated 20.94 billion gallons biofuels in transport 2022.
Environment and Regulation Interpretation
These numbers paint a picture of a global refinery sector simultaneously pumping out a stubborn mountain of carbon while scrambling, with mixed success and sincerity, to clean up its other messes with regulation, technology, and a dash of biofuel.
Infrastructure and Logistics
- Global pipeline network for refined products spans 250,000 km in U.S. alone.
- U.S. gasoline pipeline throughput averaged 7.5 mb/d in 2022.
- World's largest fuel storage hub, Singapore, holds 60 mb capacity.
- U.S. has 150 refineries operating 2023.
- Global tanker fleet for clean products was 1,200 vessels in 2022.
- India's product pipeline length is 18,000 km in 2023.
- U.S. Colonial Pipeline capacity 2.5 mb/d gasoline/diesel.
- Europe has 12,000 gasoline stations per million people.
- Global LNG trucking for peak shaving reached 5% of supply.
- U.S. rail carloads of petroleum products 1.2 million in 2022.
- China's refined product exports via pipelines to Europe started 2023.
- Global fuel retail outlets number 1.2 million in 2022.
- U.S. truck transport of refined products 2 mb/d equivalent.
- Middle East product export terminals handled 5 mb/d in 2022.
- Europe's inland barge transport 0.8 mb/d products.
- U.S. PADD 1 gasoline imports by barge/pipeline 0.5 mb/d.
- Global VLCC product tankers utilization 85% in 2022.
Infrastructure and Logistics Interpretation
These statistics paint a picture of a thirsty, sprawling world that is utterly addicted to fuel, connecting every corner of the planet with a vast, humming circulatory system of pipelines, ships, trucks, and stations to satisfy its unrelenting demand.
Petrochemicals
- Global petrochemical production capacity for ethylene was 200 million tons in 2022.
- U.S. ethylene production capacity reached 28 million metric tons per year (mmtpa) in 2023.
- China's petrochemical capacity for paraxylene (PX) was 32 mmtpa in 2022.
- Global propylene capacity grew to 120 mmtpa in 2022.
- Middle East ethylene crackers accounted for 15% of global capacity at 30 mmtpa in 2022.
- U.S. Gulf Coast added 2.5 mmtpa ethylene capacity from new projects in 2022-2023.
- Europe's petrochemical output fell 8% in 2022 to 45 million tons.
- Global benzene production capacity was 55 mmtpa in 2022.
- India's petrochemical capacity utilization was 75% for polymers in FY2022.
- Saudi Arabia's SABIC ethylene capacity is 4.5 mmtpa post-expansion.
- Global polyethylene capacity reached 105 mmtpa in 2022.
- U.S. polypropylene production capacity was 8.2 mmtpa in 2023.
- China's methanol capacity hit 100 mmtpa in 2022.
- Global aromatics capacity grew 3% to 140 mmtpa in 2022.
- Europe’s polymer production was 28 mmt in 2022, down 5%.
- U.S. benzene capacity utilization averaged 88% in 2022.
- Global polystyrene capacity was 25 mmtpa in 2022.
- Middle East FDI in petrochemicals reached $50 billion in capacity investments by 2022.
Petrochemicals Interpretation
While the U.S. and Middle East turbocharge petrochemical capacity, Europe's wilting output proves that in the global energy chess game, geography and policy determine who builds empires and who watches theirs shrink.
Product Consumption
- World gasoline demand was 26.3 mb/d in 2022.
- U.S. gasoline consumption averaged 8.8 mb/d in 2022.
- China's diesel demand peaked at 4.5 mb/d in 2022.
- Global jet fuel demand recovered to 7.1 mb/d in 2022.
- Europe's road diesel consumption was 12 million bpd in 2022.
- U.S. distillate fuel oil consumption hit 4.1 mb/d in 2022.
- India’s LPG consumption grew 8% to 1.2 mb/d in FY2022.
- Global naphtha demand for petrochemicals was 6.8 mb/d in 2022.
- Brazil's gasoline demand was 1.1 mb/d in 2022.
- U.S. jet fuel consumption rebounded 40% to 1.6 mb/d in 2022.
- Global heating oil demand declined 2% to 3.5 mb/d in 2022.
- China's gasoline demand was 3.3 mb/d in 2022.
- Europe's gasoline consumption fell 4% to 3.2 mb/d in 2022.
- Global asphalt demand was 4.2 mb/d in 2022.
- U.S. residual fuel oil use dropped to 0.9 mb/d in 2022.
- India's diesel consumption was 2.1 mb/d in FY2022.
- Global LPG demand rose 3% to 11.5 mb/d in 2022.
- U.S. retail gasoline sales volume was 135 billion gallons in 2022.
- World petrochemical feedstock demand grew 2.5% to 45 mb/d oil equivalent in 2022.
Product Consumption Interpretation
The planet may be flirting with electric vehicles and net-zero promises, but the sheer scale of our current addiction to liquid fuels, from America's endless highways to China's factories and the world's resurgent skies, reveals a stubborn reality: the energy transition is currently being built on top of, not in place of, a vast and still-growing petroleum empire.
Refining
- Global refining capacity stood at 102.5 million barrels per day (mb/d) in 2022, up 1.2% from 2021.
- U.S. refinery capacity was 18.4 million bpd operable atmospheric crude distillation capacity as of January 1, 2023.
- China's refining capacity increased to 18.4 mb/d in 2022, making it the world's largest refiner.
- Europe’s refining capacity declined by 0.8 mb/d between 2017 and 2022 due to closures.
- India's refining capacity reached 5.1 mb/d in 2022, with expansions adding 0.3 mb/d.
- Middle East refining capacity grew by 1.1 mb/d from 2017-2022 to 9.2 mb/d.
- U.S. refinery utilization rate averaged 91% in 2022.
- Saudi Arabia's refining capacity was 3.4 mb/d in 2022, including joint ventures.
- Global refinery throughput was 81.2 mb/d in 2022, recovering from COVID impacts.
- Russia's refining capacity stood at 5.5 mb/d in 2022, affected by sanctions.
- Southeast Asia's refining capacity was 4.8 mb/d in 2022.
- U.S. Gulf Coast refinery capacity accounted for 50% of national total at 9.2 mb/d in 2023.
- Global new refinery projects added 0.9 mb/d capacity between 2020-2022.
- Japan's refining capacity fell to 3.5 mb/d in 2022 from closures.
- South Korea's refining capacity was 3.1 mb/d in 2022.
- U.S. refinery crude distillation capacity utilization hit 93% in Q4 2022.
- Iran's refining capacity was 2.4 mb/d in 2022, with underutilization.
- Global refining margins averaged $12/bbl in 2022, highest in decade.
- Europe's largest refinery, Leuna in Germany, has 12.4 million tons/year capacity.
- U.S. PADD 3 (Gulf Coast) had 92% utilization rate in 2022.
Refining Interpretation
While the global refining party grew marginally to 102.5 million barrels a day in 2022, the guest list changed dramatically, with China taking the host's seat, Europe's attendance waning, and America's Gulf Coast venues running at a feverish pitch, proving that in this industry, capacity is just an invitation, not a guarantee of attendance.
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