Key Takeaways
- In 2023, the global commercial real estate market was valued at $25.6 trillion, representing 35% of all global real estate assets.
- U.S. commercial real estate investment volume reached $564 billion in 2022, down 40% from the 2021 peak.
- Commercial real estate accounts for 12% of global GDP, with Asia-Pacific contributing 45% of transactions.
- U.S. office vacancy rate reached 19.6% in Q1 2024, driven by remote work trends.
- Average U.S. office asking rent was $33.90 per sq ft in 2023, with NYC at $72.00.
- Sublease space in U.S. offices hit 250 million sq ft in 2023, 15% of total vacancy.
- U.S. retail vacancy rate fell to 5.1% in Q1 2024, lowest since 2020.
- Average U.S. retail asking rent was $23.50 per sq ft in 2023, malls at $40.
- Grocery-anchored centers saw 95% occupancy in U.S. 2023.
- U.S. industrial vacancy rate was 5.3% in Q1 2024, down from 4.1% peak.
- Average U.S. industrial rent hit $8.50 per sq ft in 2023, up 8% YoY.
- Big box industrial leases averaged 200,000 sq ft in U.S. 2023.
- U.S. multifamily vacancy rate was 6.8% in Q1 2024.
- Average U.S. multifamily rent grew 2.1% YoY to $1,712 in 2023.
- U.S. multifamily starts reached 450,000 units in 2023.
The global commercial real estate market faces pressure from high vacancies and significant refinancing risks ahead.
Industrial Sector
- U.S. industrial vacancy rate was 5.3% in Q1 2024, down from 4.1% peak.
- Average U.S. industrial rent hit $8.50 per sq ft in 2023, up 8% YoY.
- Big box industrial leases averaged 200,000 sq ft in U.S. 2023.
- U.S. industrial absorption reached 400 million sq ft in 2023.
- Inland Empire, CA industrial rents at $1.45 per sq ft monthly in 2023.
- Global logistics take-up grew 5% to 550 million sqm in 2023.
- U.S. industrial construction starts totaled 500 million sq ft in 2023.
- E-commerce drove 60% of U.S. industrial demand in 2023.
- Dallas-Fort Worth industrial vacancy at 6.2% in Q1 2024.
- Small bay industrial space under 10% vacancy in U.S. Sunbelt 2023.
- U.S. industrial rents in Phoenix reached $1.20 per sq ft 2023.
- Global warehouse stock grew 4% to 12 billion sqm 2023.
- U.S. last-mile facilities averaged 50,000 sq ft leases 2023.
- Atlanta industrial vacancy at 5.8% Q1 2024.
- Bulk industrial rent growth 7% in U.S. secondary markets 2023.
- Europe logistics rents up 5% averaging €7 per sqm 2023.
- U.S. industrial build-to-suit deals 30% of leasing 2023.
- Southern CA industrial vacancy 4.9% despite supply 2023.
Industrial Sector Interpretation
Investment Trends
- Global CRE transaction volume fell 50% to $700 billion in 2023.
- U.S. CRE sales volume was $430 billion in 2023, down 47% YoY.
- Private equity dry powder for CRE reached $300 billion in Q4 2023.
- Debt yields on CRE loans averaged 6.8% in 2023.
- Foreign investment in U.S. CRE dropped to $40 billion in 2023.
- Core CRE funds returned 6.5% in 2023 per NCREIF.
- Value-add CRE strategies outperformed by 200 bps in 2023.
- REIT market cap totaled $1.4 trillion globally in 2023.
- Distressed CRE assets rose 20% to $200 billion in U.S. 2023.
- Logistics assets captured 35% of global CRE investment in 2023.
- U.S. office investment volume down 60% to $50 billion in 2023.
- Multifamily transactions hit $150 billion in U.S. 2023.
- Global REIT dividend yield averaged 4.2% in 2023.
- U.S. CRE CMBS issuance $100 billion in 2023, down 60%.
- Opportunity zone CRE investments totaled $75 billion by 2023.
Investment Trends Interpretation
Market Overview
- In 2023, the global commercial real estate market was valued at $25.6 trillion, representing 35% of all global real estate assets.
- U.S. commercial real estate investment volume reached $564 billion in 2022, down 40% from the 2021 peak.
- Commercial real estate accounts for 12% of global GDP, with Asia-Pacific contributing 45% of transactions.
- The U.S. CRE debt market totals $4.7 trillion, with 28% maturing by 2025 posing refinancing risks.
- In Q4 2023, global CRE cap rates averaged 5.8%, up 50 basis points from prior year.
- CRE in Europe saw €250 billion in investments in 2023, led by logistics at 30% share.
- U.S. CRE vacancy rate stood at 18.2% in 2023, highest since 2010.
- Global CRE development pipeline exceeds 1.2 billion sqm, with China accounting for 40%.
- Institutional investors allocated 11% of portfolios to CRE in 2023, down from 15% in 2019.
- CRE returns averaged 7.2% globally in 2023, lagging equities by 5 percentage points.
- In 2023, U.S. CRE under construction was 1.1 billion sq ft.
- Asia-Pacific CRE investment forecasted at $100 billion for 2024.
- European CRE vacancy averaged 7.5% across sectors in 2023.
- U.S. CRE mortgage originations fell 55% to $250 billion in 2023.
Market Overview Interpretation
Multifamily Sector
- U.S. multifamily vacancy rate was 6.8% in Q1 2024.
- Average U.S. multifamily rent grew 2.1% YoY to $1,712 in 2023.
- U.S. multifamily starts reached 450,000 units in 2023.
- Sunbelt metros like Austin saw 5% rent growth in 2023.
- Institutional ownership of U.S. apartments at 18% of stock in 2023.
- Completions totaled 400,000 multifamily units in U.S. 2023.
- Luxury multifamily occupancy averaged 94% in top U.S. markets 2023.
- Rent growth slowed to 1% in Northeast U.S. multifamily 2023.
- Build-to-rent homes grew to 100,000 units in U.S. 2023.
- U.S. multifamily cap rates at 5.4% average in 2023.
- Phoenix multifamily rents averaged $1,650 monthly in 2023.
- U.S. multifamily inventory grew 1.5% to 20 million units 2023.
- Atlanta multifamily vacancy 7.5% with 4% rent growth 2023.
- U.S. Class B multifamily rents up 3.5% YoY 2023.
- New supply pressured rents down 1% in 20 U.S. metros 2023.
- Student housing vacancy 5.2% U.S. average 2023.
- U.S. affordable housing shortage at 7 million units 2023.
- Miami multifamily cap rates compressed to 4.8% 2023.
- U.S. senior housing occupancy 87% in 2023.
Multifamily Sector Interpretation
Office Sector
- U.S. office vacancy rate reached 19.6% in Q1 2024, driven by remote work trends.
- Average U.S. office asking rent was $33.90 per sq ft in 2023, with NYC at $72.00.
- Sublease space in U.S. offices hit 250 million sq ft in 2023, 15% of total vacancy.
- Trophy office buildings in gateway U.S. cities saw 2.5% rent growth in 2023.
- Global office absorption was negative 45 million sqm in 2023, worst on record.
- U.S. Class A office vacancy at 15.8% vs. Class B at 22.4% in Q1 2024.
- London office rents averaged £65 per sq ft in 2023, up 1% YoY.
- U.S. office construction deliveries totaled 100 million sq ft in 2023, 20% under construction.
- Flight to quality drove 70% of U.S. office leasing to Class A in 2023.
- Asia-Pacific office vacancy averaged 12.5% in 2023, with Tokyo at 4.2%.
- Global office stock totals 8.5 billion sqm as of 2023.
- U.S. downtown office vacancy hit 21% in 2023.
- San Francisco office vacancy reached 32% in Q1 2024.
- U.S. flex space office rents averaged $28 per sq ft in 2023.
- Global office rents declined 2% in real terms in 2023.
- Mumbai office vacancy at 15% with rents at $45 per sqm 2023.
- U.S. office lease expirations peak at 300 million sq ft in 2025.
- Medical office vacancy steady at 8.2% in U.S. 2023.
- U.S. suburban office outperformed downtown by 100 bps in 2023.
- Singapore office rents up 5% to S$10.50 per sq ft 2023.
Office Sector Interpretation
Retail Sector
- U.S. retail vacancy rate fell to 5.1% in Q1 2024, lowest since 2020.
- Average U.S. retail asking rent was $23.50 per sq ft in 2023, malls at $40.
- Grocery-anchored centers saw 95% occupancy in U.S. 2023.
- U.S. retail sales grew 4.1% in 2023, boosting strip center performance.
- Net absorption in U.S. shopping centers was 10 million sq ft in 2023.
- Power centers in U.S. had 6.8% vacancy rate in 2023.
- E-commerce share of U.S. retail sales hit 15.2% in 2023.
- U.S. mall redevelopment added 5 million sq ft of mixed-use in 2023.
- Regional malls averaged $500 annual sales per sq ft in top U.S. markets 2023.
- Discount retailers expanded 2.5 million sq ft in U.S. 2023.
- U.S. retail absorption was 15 million sq ft in Q1 2024.
- Street retail rents in NYC Soho averaged $650 per sq ft 2023.
- U.S. outlet centers vacancy at 4.5% in 2023.
- Experiential retail leasing up 25% in U.S. 2023.
- U.S. neighborhood centers rents grew 3.2% YoY 2023.
- Global retail vacancy averaged 9.8% in 2023.
- Simon Property Group portfolio 95% occupied in 2023.
- U.S. high street retail sales per sq ft $1,200 annually 2023.
- Mixed-use retail developments added 3 million sq ft U.S. 2023.
Retail Sector Interpretation
Sources & References
- Reference 1STATISTAstatista.comVisit source
- Reference 2CBREcbre.comVisit source
- Reference 3JLLjll.comVisit source
- Reference 4MOODYSmoodys.comVisit source
- Reference 5PWCpwc.comVisit source
- Reference 6COLLIERScolliers.comVisit source
- Reference 7COSTARcostar.comVisit source
- Reference 8KNIGHTFRANKknightfrank.comVisit source
- Reference 9PREQINpreqin.comVisit source
- Reference 10NCREIFncreif.orgVisit source
- Reference 11JLLjll.usVisit source
- Reference 12GREENSTREETgreenstreet.comVisit source
- Reference 13CUSHMANWAKEFIELDcushmanwakefield.comVisit source
- Reference 14DODGECONSTRUCTIONNETWORKdodgeconstructionnetwork.comVisit source
- Reference 15CBREGROUPcbregroup.comVisit source
- Reference 16ICSCicsc.comVisit source
- Reference 17CENSUScensus.govVisit source
- Reference 18PROLOGISprologis.comVisit source
- Reference 19NMHCnmhc.orgVisit source
- Reference 20NARnar.realtorVisit source
- Reference 21RCGrcg.pwc.comVisit source
- Reference 22MBAmba.orgVisit source
- Reference 23NAREITnareit.comVisit source
- Reference 24JLLjll.com.sgVisit source
- Reference 25INVESTORSinvestors.simon.comVisit source






