While office markets grapple with record-high vacancies, the broader U.S. commercial real estate landscape reveals a story of profound divergence, where sectors like retail and industrial display resilience even as investment strategies fundamentally recalibrate.
Key Takeaways
- In Q2 2024, U.S. office vacancy rates averaged 19.8%, marking the highest level since the early 1990s, driven by structural shifts to remote work.
- New York City's Manhattan office market saw asking rents decline by 2.1% year-over-year to $72.50 per sq ft in Q1 2024.
- Sublease space in the U.S. office market reached 208 million sq ft in Q2 2024, representing 4.2% of total inventory.
- In Q2 2024, U.S. retail vacancy rates held steady at 5.2%, the lowest since 2001.
- National average asking rent for retail space reached $24.50 per sq ft in H1 2024.
- Grocery-anchored shopping centers saw 4.1% vacancy rates in Q2 2024.
- In Q2 2024, U.S. industrial vacancy rates rose to 5.6%, up 60 bps QoQ.
- National average industrial asking rent hit $8.50 per sq ft in June 2024.
- Inland Empire industrial net absorption slowed to 12 million sq ft in Q2 2024.
- National multifamily vacancy rate stabilized at 6.5% in Q2 2024.
- U.S. multifamily asking rents grew 1.2% YoY to $1,650 in June 2024.
- Sun Belt multifamily markets averaged 93% occupancy in Q2 2024.
- U.S. total CRE investment volume $95 billion in Q2 2024, up 15% QoQ.
- CRE debt origination hit $120 billion in H1 2024.
- U.S. CRE cap rate average 6.8% across sectors in Q2 2024.
The U.S. commercial real estate market is struggling with high office vacancies while retail and industrial sectors remain more resilient.
Industrial Market
- In Q2 2024, U.S. industrial vacancy rates rose to 5.6%, up 60 bps QoQ.
- National average industrial asking rent hit $8.50 per sq ft in June 2024.
- Inland Empire industrial net absorption slowed to 12 million sq ft in Q2 2024.
- U.S. industrial construction deliveries totaled 200 million sq ft in 2023.
- Dallas-Fort Worth industrial vacancy at 8.2% in Q2 2024.
- Phoenix industrial rents rose 2.1% YoY to $10.20 per sq ft in H1 2024.
- U.S. industrial leasing volume was 300 million sq ft in Q2 2024.
- Southeast industrial markets under construction: 150 million sq ft pipeline.
- Chicago industrial vacancy fell to 4.8% in Q1 2024.
- U.S. industrial investment sales reached $25 billion in Q2 2024.
- Southern California's industrial spec development hit record 50 million sq ft in 2023.
- Atlanta industrial absorption: 15 million sq ft in H1 2024.
- National industrial cap rates at 5.2% for built-to-suit in Q2 2024.
- Lehigh Valley industrial vacancy at 3.5%, lowest nationally in Q2 2024.
- U.S. e-commerce drove 40% of industrial demand in 2023.
- Houston industrial rents averaged $9.80 per sq ft in Q2 2024.
- Central Pennsylvania industrial construction: 30 million sq ft underway.
- U.S. industrial availability rate climbed to 6.1% in July 2024.
- Miami-Dade industrial occupancy at 96.5% in Q1 2024.
- Nashville industrial market absorbed 4.5 million sq ft in Q2 2024.
- U.S. flex space vacancy at 7.3% nationally in H1 2024.
- Columbus, OH industrial rents up 5% to $7.50 per sq ft Q2 2024.
- West Coast industrial sales volume down 20% YoY in Q2 2024.
- Savannah, GA industrial vacancy at 2.8% due to port activity.
- U.S. bulk industrial deals averaged 250k sq ft in 2023.
- Kansas City industrial pipeline: 20 million sq ft under construction.
Industrial Market Interpretation
Despite soaring construction and rising vacancies in some regions, the industrial market isn't in freefall, but rather a high-stakes rebalancing act where port-proximate markets like Savannah and the Lehigh Valley are tightening their belts while other areas like DFW loosen theirs, all as rents stubbornly climb and e-commerce continues to drive the bus.
Investment and Sales
- U.S. total CRE investment volume $95 billion in Q2 2024, up 15% QoQ.
- CRE debt origination hit $120 billion in H1 2024.
- U.S. CRE cap rate average 6.8% across sectors in Q2 2024.
- Foreign investment in U.S. CRE fell to 8% of total volume in 2023.
- Private equity dry powder for CRE at $350 billion as of Q1 2024.
- CMBS issuance reached $45 billion in H1 2024.
- U.S. CRE loan maturities $500 billion in 2024.
- Gateway city CRE returns averaged 5.2% in Q2 2024.
- Life company CRE lending up 10% to $65 billion in 2023.
- U.S. CRE distressed sales rose 25% YoY in Q2 2024.
- REIT market cap totaled $1.3 trillion in June 2024.
- Bridge lending for CRE grew to $100 billion outstanding Q1 2024.
- U.S. CRE pricing index down 5% from peak in 2022.
- Insurance company CRE allocations at 12% of portfolios in 2024.
- Mezzanine debt spreads widened to 450 bps over Treasuries Q2 2024.
- U.S. CRE transaction velocity 45% below pre-pandemic levels in 2024.
- Pension fund CRE commitments $50 billion in H1 2024.
- Delinquency rates for office CMBS hit 10.2% in Q2 2024.
- Core CRE fund IRRs averaged 8.5% for vintage 2023.
- U.S. CRE equity raised $80 billion via funds in 2023.
- Bank CRE exposure $2.8 trillion, 25% of total loans Q1 2024.
- Value-add CRE deals yielded 12% returns in select markets 2023.
- Global CRE investment into U.S. $30 billion in Q2 2024.
- CRE preferred equity volume $15 billion in H1 2024.
- U.S. CRE bid-ask spreads narrowed to 100 bps in Q2 2024.
Investment and Sales Interpretation
The market is a complex tango of cautious optimism and gritty reality, where rising investment and dry powder dance nervously beside stubbornly high maturities, distressed sales, and the ominous shadow of office delinquencies, all while transaction velocity limps along like it’s got a stone in its shoe.
Multifamily Market
- National multifamily vacancy rate stabilized at 6.5% in Q2 2024.
- U.S. multifamily asking rents grew 1.2% YoY to $1,650 in June 2024.
- Sun Belt multifamily markets averaged 93% occupancy in Q2 2024.
- National multifamily absorption was 250k units in Q2 2024.
- U.S. multifamily construction starts fell 30% YoY in H1 2024.
- Atlanta multifamily rents rose 2.5% to $1,750 per unit in Q2 2024.
- NYC multifamily vacancy at 2.8%, tightest major market in Q1 2024.
- U.S. multifamily sales volume $45 billion in Q2 2024.
- Austin multifamily supply growth slowed to 1.5% in 2024.
- Midwest multifamily cap rates at 5.4% in H1 2024.
- Phoenix multifamily occupancy dipped to 91% amid deliveries.
- U.S. Class A multifamily rents averaged $2,200 in gateway cities Q2 2024.
- Denver multifamily absorption negative 5k units in Q1 2024.
- National multifamily under construction: 450k units in Q2 2024.
- Miami multifamily vacancy at 5.2% with luxury demand strong.
- U.S. suburban multifamily outperformed urban by 1% rent growth.
- Charlotte multifamily rents flat at $1,600 in H1 2024.
- Multifamily investment returns averaged 7.8% IRR in 2023.
- Seattle multifamily supply glut led to 8.1% vacancy Q2 2024.
- U.S. affordable housing multifamily vacancy at 4.5%.
- Nashville multifamily deliveries: 10k units in 2023.
- Houston multifamily rents up 3% to $1,450 Q2 2024.
- National Baa multifamily CMBS delinquency at 1.2% in Q2 2024.
- Orlando multifamily occupancy 94.5% amid tourism.
- U.S. multifamily cap rates expanded 20 bps to 5.6% Q2 2024.
- Las Vegas multifamily absorption 3k units Q1 2024.
Multifamily Market Interpretation
The multifamily market is putting on a masterclass in controlled chaos: rents are climbing nationally despite a supply surge, yet with construction starts plummeting and sales volume humming along at $45 billion, everyone is nervously betting that the current delicate balance between demand, delivery, and affordability won't tip over.
Office Market
- In Q2 2024, U.S. office vacancy rates averaged 19.8%, marking the highest level since the early 1990s, driven by structural shifts to remote work.
- New York City's Manhattan office market saw asking rents decline by 2.1% year-over-year to $72.50 per sq ft in Q1 2024.
- Sublease space in the U.S. office market reached 208 million sq ft in Q2 2024, representing 4.2% of total inventory.
- San Francisco's office vacancy rate hit 34.3% in Q2 2024, the highest among major U.S. markets.
- U.S. office construction completions totaled 28.5 million sq ft in 2023, down 15% from 2022.
- Downtown Los Angeles office occupancy fell to 84.2% in Q1 2024, with net absorption negative at -1.2 million sq ft.
- Asking rents for Class A office space in Chicago's Central Loop averaged $42.00 per sq ft in Q2 2024.
- U.S. office leasing volume dropped 12% year-over-year to 54 million sq ft in Q2 2024.
- Houston's office market experienced 2.8 million sq ft of negative absorption in 2023.
- Trophy office properties in U.S. gateway markets traded at cap rates of 5.8% in H1 2024.
- Seattle's office vacancy rate climbed to 22.4% in Q2 2024 amid tech sector slowdown.
- U.S. office sector investment volume fell 45% YoY to $18.2 billion in Q2 2024.
- Boston's Cambridge office submarkets saw rents stabilize at $85 per sq ft in Q1 2024.
- National U.S. office availability rate reached 20.1% in June 2024.
- Philadelphia's Center City office market posted -450k sq ft absorption in Q2 2024.
- U.S. office net absorption totaled -15.3 million sq ft in Q1 2024.
- Miami's Brickell office corridor asking rents rose 1.5% to $58.00 per sq ft in Q2 2024.
- Atlanta's office vacancy rate increased to 21.7% in H1 2024.
- Denver's CBD office occupancy dipped to 82% in Q2 2024.
- U.S. office construction pipeline stands at 100 million sq ft under construction as of Q2 2024.
- Washington's NoMa submarket saw 1.2 million sq ft leased in Q1 2024.
- Phoenix office market absorption improved to +300k sq ft in Q2 2024.
- U.S. Sun Belt office markets averaged 18.5% vacancy in Q2 2024.
- Dallas' Uptown office rents held at $38.50 per sq ft in H1 2024.
- Nashville's office vacancy stabilized at 12.8% in Q2 2024.
- U.S. office sales volume was $42 billion in 2023, down 54% from 2022.
- Austin's office market saw sublease space double to 5 million sq ft in 2024.
- Portland's office vacancy hit 25.1% in Q1 2024.
- Orlando office leasing activity rose 20% YoY to 1.1 million sq ft in Q2 2024.
- U.S. office cap rates expanded to 7.2% for Class B properties in Q2 2024.
Office Market Interpretation
The once mighty office market is now navigating a painful recalibration, with a historic flood of empty space and plummeting investor appetite exposing a glaring truth: we built a kingdom for a workforce that decided to work from the castle of their own home.
Retail Market
- In Q2 2024, U.S. retail vacancy rates held steady at 5.2%, the lowest since 2001.
- National average asking rent for retail space reached $24.50 per sq ft in H1 2024.
- Grocery-anchored shopping centers saw 4.1% vacancy rates in Q2 2024.
- U.S. retail sales volume increased 5% YoY to $11.5 billion in Q2 2024.
- Power centers in the U.S. reported 6.8% vacancy in June 2024.
- Street retail rents in NYC's SoHo averaged $650 per sq ft annually in Q1 2024.
- U.S. retail net absorption totaled 1.2 million sq ft in Q2 2024.
- Mall vacancy rates fell to 7.1% nationally in H1 2024.
- Southeast U.S. retail markets averaged $22.10 per sq ft in asking rents Q2 2024.
- Dollar stores expanded by 1,200 new locations in 2023.
- U.S. retail construction starts declined 22% YoY in 2023 to 15 million sq ft.
- Las Vegas Strip retail occupancy reached 95% in Q2 2024.
- National retail cap rates compressed to 6.5% for prime assets in Q2 2024.
- E-commerce penetration stabilized at 15.2% of total retail sales in 2023.
- Inland Empire retail vacancy dropped to 4.5% in Q1 2024.
- U.S. neighborhood shopping centers absorbed 800k sq ft in H1 2024.
- Miami's retail market saw rents rise 8% YoY to $45 per sq ft in Q2 2024.
- Retail investment in secondary markets surged 30% YoY in Q2 2024.
- U.S. outlet center occupancy hit 93.2% in June 2024.
- Chicago's retail leasing volume reached 2.1 million sq ft in Q1 2024.
- National retail availability rate was 5.4% in Q2 2024.
- Lifestyle centers reported 6.2% vacancy in H1 2024.
- Denver retail rents averaged $28.50 per sq ft in Q2 2024.
- U.S. single-tenant NNN retail cap rates at 5.9% in Q2 2024.
- Atlanta retail absorption was positive 450k sq ft in Q1 2024.
- Phoenix retail vacancy fell to 5.8% amid tourism rebound.
- U.S. retail sales volume hit $48 billion in 2023.
- Seattle's retail market saw 7% rent growth in University District Q2 2024.
- National big-box retail occupancy at 97.1% in Q2 2024.
Retail Market Interpretation
Americans are fiercely returning to physical stores to spend their money, but because developers haven't been building many new ones, landlords are now holding all the cards—and charging rents that show it.
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