Imagine a world addicted to chocolate yet unaware that its supply rests on a delicate, often troubled ecosystem where soaring global demand, devastating crop diseases, and profound human challenges collide behind each velvety bar.
Key Takeaways
- In 2022/23, global cocoa production reached 4.8 million metric tons, with West Africa accounting for 75% of the total
- Côte d'Ivoire produced 2.1 million tonnes of cocoa beans in the 2022/23 season, representing 44% of global output
- Ghana's cocoa production for 2022/23 was 820,000 metric tons, up 5% from the previous year due to favorable weather
- Global cocoa grindings peaked at 4.9 million tonnes in 2022/23, indicating strong processing demand
- Côte d'Ivoire exported 1.95 million tonnes of cocoa beans in 2022/23, valued at $4.2 billion
- Netherlands imported 1.1 million tonnes of cocoa products in 2022, 40% of EU total
- World per capita cocoa consumption averaged 0.75 kg in 2023, led by Switzerland at 11.9 kg
- EU chocolate consumption reached 3.2 million tonnes in 2022
- US chocolate sales hit $25 billion in 2023, with dark chocolate up 20%
- Average cocoa price on ICE futures reached $4,000/tonne in April 2024, up 300% YoY
- Côte d'Ivoire farmgate price set at 1,000 CFA/kg ($1.65) for 2023/24 main crop
- Ghana producer price hiked to 48,000 GHS/tonne ($3,000) in 2024
- Child labor costs cocoa industry $1.5 billion annually in lost productivity
- 30% of global cocoa farms use child labor, affecting 1.56 million children
- Deforestation linked to cocoa: 2.3 million hectares lost in Côte d'Ivoire 2000-2020
West Africa dominates global cocoa production despite facing serious sustainability and climate challenges.
Consumption
- World per capita cocoa consumption averaged 0.75 kg in 2023, led by Switzerland at 11.9 kg
- EU chocolate consumption reached 3.2 million tonnes in 2022
- US chocolate sales hit $25 billion in 2023, with dark chocolate up 20%
- Brazil consumed 750,000 tonnes of cocoa products in 2023
- Asia-Pacific cocoa demand grew 8% YoY to 1 million tonnes in 2023
- Germany chocolate market size was €18 billion in 2023
- India cocoa consumption doubled to 50,000 tonnes since 2015
- 50% of global cocoa used for chocolate confectionery in 2023
- UK per capita consumption 8.2 kg/year, mostly milk chocolate
- Japan imported 250,000 tonnes for premium chocolate market in 2023
- Emerging markets accounted for 30% of global demand growth in 2023
- Organic cocoa consumption rose 12% to 250,000 tonnes globally in 2023
- Cocoa powder demand in bakery sector was 800,000 tonnes in 2022/23
- 70% of US consumers prefer sustainable cocoa-labeled products
- Global chocolate market valued at $130 billion in 2023
- Russia consumption 150,000 tonnes, up 10% post-sanctions alternatives
- Australia per capita 2.5 kg, importing 60,000 tonnes
- Mexico chocolate market $2 billion, growing 5% YoY
- South Korea premium imports 30,000 tonnes, up 25%
- Plant-based chocolate alternatives used 5% of cocoa in 2023
- Holiday season accounts for 40% annual US chocolate sales
- Vegan chocolate segment grew 15% to $1.5 billion globally
- 65% European consumers willing to pay more for traceable cocoa
- Africa consumption only 5% global total despite production dominance
- E-commerce chocolate sales up 30% to $10 billion in 2023
- Single-origin bars demand rose 18% in specialty retail
- Health claims boosted functional chocolate to 200,000 tonnes cocoa use
- Poland market doubled to 100,000 tonnes since 2015
Consumption Interpretation
The world's collective sweet tooth is a marvel of economic and cultural diversity, from Switzerland's heroic per capita consumption to the booming, health-conscious markets of Asia, proving that while we may all crave chocolate, we do so with wildly different budgets, tastes, and justifications.
Prices
- Average cocoa price on ICE futures reached $4,000/tonne in April 2024, up 300% YoY
- Côte d'Ivoire farmgate price set at 1,000 CFA/kg ($1.65) for 2023/24 main crop
- Ghana producer price hiked to 48,000 GHS/tonne ($3,000) in 2024
- Cocoa butter premium over beans averaged $1,500/tonne in 2023
- London cocoa futures volatility hit 50% annualized in 2024
- NY cocoa contract high of $11,800/tonne in 2024 due to supply fears
- Differential for CCN51 variety in Ecuador was $100/tonne discount in 2023
- Certified cocoa fetched 10-15% premium in 2023 spot markets
- Input costs for cocoa farmers rose 40% in West Africa 2020-2023
- Cocoa export parity price in Côte d'Ivoire averaged $3,500/tonne in 2023
- Hedging covered 70% of major traders' 2024 cocoa positions
- Brazilian cocoa prices doubled to BRL 20,000/tonne in 2024
- Volatility index for cocoa spiked to 60 in Q1 2024
- Forward curve in contango by $500/tonne for late 2024 delivery
- NY cocoa Dec 2024 contract at $7,500/tonne amid deficits
- Ghana COCOBOD debt servicing strained by $2 billion arrears in 2024
- Cocoa liquor prices $8,000/tonne CFR Europe Q2 2024
- Speculative long positions 150,000 lots on ICE in May 2024
- Ecuador export tax 10% impacted farmgate prices down 5%
- Inflation-adjusted cocoa price highest since 1977 at $3,500 real terms
- Butter/liquor spread widened to $2,000/tonne in 2024
- Indonesian domestic price mandated 45,000 IDR/kg min
- Risk premium in basis 20% over futures in West Africa
- Historic low stocks-to-grindings ratio 15% in 2024
- Farmer income rose 50% in Côte d'Ivoire from price hikes 2023/24
Prices Interpretation
Amidst the frenzy of cocoa futures hitting historic highs and the grim reality of strained national debts and volatile farmer costs, the bittersweet truth is that the only sure thing in this market is that your chocolate bar is about to get a lot more expensive.
Production
- In 2022/23, global cocoa production reached 4.8 million metric tons, with West Africa accounting for 75% of the total
- Côte d'Ivoire produced 2.1 million tonnes of cocoa beans in the 2022/23 season, representing 44% of global output
- Ghana's cocoa production for 2022/23 was 820,000 metric tons, up 5% from the previous year due to favorable weather
- Ecuador's fine flavor cocoa production hit 390,000 tonnes in 2023, driven by expanded planting
- Cameroon produced 300,000 metric tons of cocoa in 2022/23, facing challenges from swollen shoot virus
- Brazil's cocoa output reached 250,000 tonnes in 2023, with Bahia state contributing 80%
- Nigeria's cocoa production was 270,000 metric tons in 2022/23, limited by aging trees
- Indonesia produced 180,000 tonnes of cocoa in 2023, down due to disease pressures
- Peru's cocoa production grew to 190,000 tonnes in 2023, focusing on specialty varieties
- Dominican Republic output was 85,000 metric tons in 2022/23, emphasizing organic cocoa
- Global cocoa area harvested was 11.5 million hectares in 2022/23, with average yield at 417 kg/ha
- Côte d'Ivoire's average cocoa yield improved to 550 kg/ha in 2023 from 500 kg/ha prior
- Ghana's yield per hectare was 450 kg in 2022/23, affected by illegal mining
- New planting in Côte d'Ivoire added 150,000 hectares since 2017
- Hybrid cocoa varieties in Ghana boosted yields by 30% in pilot farms
- Climate change reduced cocoa yields by 10-20% in West Africa over the last decade
- Mirids pest damaged 15% of Ghana's cocoa crop in 2023
- Fertilizer use in Côte d'Ivoire increased 25% in 2023, aiding production recovery
- Smallholder farmers produce 90% of global cocoa on farms averaging 2-5 hectares
- Cocoa pod borer infestation affected 20% of Indonesian production in 2023
- In 2022/23, Ivory Coast cocoa output forecast revised down to 1.8 million tonnes from shortages
- Ghana harvested 780,000 tonnes mid-crop 2023/24, below target due to weather
- Cameroon fine cocoa production up 10% to 50,000 tonnes in 2023
- Venezuela's cocoa output stabilized at 20,000 tonnes post-recovery efforts
- Papua New Guinea produced 40,000 tonnes, exporting to Australia mainly
- Côte d'Ivoire replanted 200,000 ha with resistant varieties since 2018
- Average farm size in West Africa 3.2 ha, with 6 million farmers globally
- Yield gap: Potential 1,000 kg/ha vs actual 400 kg/ha in Africa
Production Interpretation
The world's chocolate supply hangs by a West African thread, where colossal production coexists with a delicate dance against pests, disease, and climate, proving that the future of our favorite indulgence relies on the resilience of small farms facing big challenges.
Sustainability
- Child labor costs cocoa industry $1.5 billion annually in lost productivity
- 30% of global cocoa farms use child labor, affecting 1.56 million children
- Deforestation linked to cocoa: 2.3 million hectares lost in Côte d'Ivoire 2000-2020
- Only 20% of cocoa is certified sustainable as of 2023
- Gender gap: Women produce 40% of cocoa but earn 30% less
- Pesticide overuse contaminates 25% of West African cocoa soils
- Living Income Differential (LID) introduced by Côte d'Ivoire/Ghana adds $400/tonne
- 90% of cocoa farmers live below $2.15/day poverty line
- Climate suitability for cocoa to decline 50% by 2050 in current areas
- Agroforestry adoption on 15% of Ghana farms sequesters 10 tCO2/ha/year
- Illegal gold mining encroached 500,000 ha of cocoa lands in Côte d'Ivoire
- Fairtrade premium distributed $20 million to 100,000 cocoa farmers in 2023
- Swollen shoot disease infected 20% of Ghana's cocoa trees by 2023
- Water stress projected to cut yields 37% by 2030 without adaptation
- Biodiversity loss: 60% decline in pollinators on cocoa farms
- 2.1 million children in child labor on cocoa farms, 43% doing hazardous work
- Rainforest Alliance certified 300,000 tonnes in 2023
- UTZ merged certification covers 500,000 farmers
- Carbon footprint of cocoa 2.5 tCO2e/tonne chocolate
- Women comprise 30% cocoa workforce but own <20% land
- Black pod disease destroys 30% annual crop in humid areas
- EU Deforestation Regulation requires traceability from 2024 plots
- Farmer cooperatives reach 2 million members, improving bargaining
- Projected 500,000 ha new plantings needed by 2030 for supply
- Mycotoxin contamination exceeds limits in 10% exports
Sustainability Interpretation
The cocoa industry's staggering human and environmental toll—from child labor costing billions to rampant deforestation and deepening poverty—paints a grim portrait of a global addiction built on a foundation of exploitation, where even the sweet promise of sustainability certifications barely masks the bitter reality that the very future of chocolate is hanging by a thread.
Trade
- Global cocoa grindings peaked at 4.9 million tonnes in 2022/23, indicating strong processing demand
- Côte d'Ivoire exported 1.95 million tonnes of cocoa beans in 2022/23, valued at $4.2 billion
- Netherlands imported 1.1 million tonnes of cocoa products in 2022, 40% of EU total
- USA cocoa bean imports reached 900,000 tonnes in 2023, mainly from Côte d'Ivoire
- Germany's cocoa imports were 850,000 tonnes in 2022, for chocolate manufacturing
- Malaysia re-exported 400,000 tonnes of cocoa butter in 2023 after processing
- EU countries imported 70% of West African cocoa exports in 2022/23
- China’s cocoa imports grew 15% to 250,000 tonnes in 2023
- World cocoa exports totaled 4.2 million tonnes in 2022/23, up 3% YoY
- Côte d'Ivoire-Ghana forward sales contracts covered 60% of 2023/24 crop at premium prices
- Cocoa shipping rates from Abidjan to Europe averaged $50/tonne in 2023
- Brazil exported 200,000 tonnes of cocoa to Europe in 2023
- Indonesia's cocoa exports dropped to 150,000 tonnes in 2023 due to domestic processing mandates
- Premium for certified cocoa was $200/tonne above standard in 2023 trades
- Global cocoa trade value hit $12 billion in 2022/23
- US imported 60% of its cocoa from West Africa in 2023
- EU grindings fell 2% to 1.2 million tonnes in Q1 2024 on high prices
- Singapore hub processed 500,000 tonnes cocoa in 2023
- Belgium imported 1.05 million tonnes, leading EU processors
- India cocoa imports 55,000 tonnes for beverages in 2023
- Turkey re-exports 100,000 tonnes cocoa products annually
- Futures open interest hit record 250,000 contracts in 2024 cocoa rally
- Côte d'Ivoire sales to grinders at 80% of crop by June 2024
- Container shortages added $100/tonne freight costs in 2023
- Africa-to-Asia cocoa trade up 20% to 300,000 tonnes in 2023
- France chocolate exports $5 billion, 25% of global total
- Middle East demand drove 50,000 tonne imports to UAE in 2023
Trade Interpretation
The world's sweet tooth is a serious business, with West Africa feeding beans into a voracious global grinder that turns billions of dollars of bitter seeds into a river of chocolate, proving that while love may make the world go round, cocoa makes the cash register sing.
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