China’s population decline is shaped by two forces that move in opposite directions: fewer births and more deaths. In 2023, total births fell to 9.02 million while total deaths rose to 11.10 million. At the same time, the country’s age structure keeps shifting older, raising pressure on the old-age dependency ratio.
Key Takeaways
- Proportion aged 60+ rose to 21.1% in 2023.
- Proportion aged 65+ was 15.4% in 2023.
- Median age in 2023: 40.1 years.
- Total births in 2022 were 9.56 million, down 10.6% from 2021.
- Total births in 2023 dropped to 9.02 million, 5.7% decline.
- Crude birth rate in 2022 was 6.77 per 1,000 people.
- Total deaths in 2022: 10.41 million, up 6.9%.
- Total deaths 2023: 11.10 million, up 6.5%.
- Crude death rate 2022: 7.37 per 1,000.
- China's population projected to fall to 1.313B by 2050.
- UN medium variant: 212M pop decline by 2050.
- Peak population 1.426B in 2021 per UN.
- China's population at end of 2022 was 1,411,750,000, first decline since 1961 by 850,000 people.
- China's population at end of 2023 was 1,409,670,000, declining by 2,080,000 or 0.15%.
- China's population in 2021 was 1,412,600,000, up by 480,000 from 2020.
China’s shrinking population is accelerating as births fall, deaths rise, and the share aged 65 plus climbs.
Related reading
01 · Category
Aging Population And Dependency Ratios24 stats
01
Proportion aged 60+ rose to 21.1% in 2023.
02
Proportion aged 65+ was 15.4% in 2023.
03
Median age in 2023: 40.1 years.
04
Old-age dependency ratio 2023: 21.1%.
05
Child dependency ratio 2023: 28.3%.
06
Total dependency ratio 2023: 49.4%.
07
% aged 0-14 in 2023: 15.4%.
08
Working-age pop (15-59) 2023: 63.5%.
09
Sex ratio at birth 2022: 111.13 males per 100 females.
10
Overall sex ratio 2023: 104.32 males/100 females.
11
% 60+ projected 28% by 2030.
12
400M people aged 60+ in 2023.
13
Median age rose from 29.5 in 2000 to 40.1 in 2023.
14
Elderly dependency to double to 50% by 2050.
15
% 65+ to reach 26% by 2050 per UN.
16
Working-age pop peaked 2014 at 70%.
17
Child pop (0-14) declined to 240M in 2023.
18
Sex ratio 15+ males excess 30M.
19
% empty-nest elderly households 50%+.
20
Pensioners to workforce ratio 2023: 1:5.
21
65+ pop 218M in 2023.
22
Dependency ratio 2010: 38.4%.
23
2025 projected 60+ at 300M.
24
UN projects China pop median age 50.7 by 2050.
Interpretation
Aging Population And Dependency Ratios Interpretation
In 2023, China’s aging population is becoming more pronounced as the share aged 60 and older climbs to 21.1% and the old-age dependency ratio reaches 21.1%, signaling rising pressure on working-age people under the Aging Population And Dependency Ratios framework.
02 · Category
Birth And Fertility Rates23 stats
01
Total births in 2022 were 9.56 million, down 10.6% from 2021.
02
Total births in 2023 dropped to 9.02 million, 5.7% decline.
03
Crude birth rate in 2022 was 6.77 per 1,000 people.
04
Total fertility rate (TFR) in 2022 was 1.09 children per woman.
05
Births in 2021: 10.62 million.
06
Crude birth rate 2023: 6.39 per 1,000.
07
TFR 2021: 1.15.
08
Births fell 85% from 1987 peak of 25.91M to 2022.
09
Crude birth rate 2020: 8.52 per 1,000.
10
TFR dropped below replacement 1.7 in 1990s.
11
2016 births 17.86M after policy relaxation.
12
Birth rate 2019: 10.48 per 1,000.
13
TFR 2020 UN est. 1.28.
14
First births (to first-time mothers) 60% of total in 2022.
15
Births in 2010: 15.88M.
16
TFR 1990: 2.05, just above replacement.
17
Crude birth rate 1980s averaged 20 per 1,000.
18
2023 births lowest since 1949 Great Patriotic War.
19
TFR projected 0.9 by 2025.
20
Births 2000: 14.31M.
21
Late births (3rd child) only 0.11% in 2023.
22
TFR 1970: 5.81.
23
Birth rate decline 2021-2022: 10.6%.
Interpretation
Birth And Fertility Rates Interpretation
For birth and fertility rates, China’s already low fertility is translating into fewer births as total births fell from 10.62 million in 2021 to 9.02 million in 2023 and the crude birth rate dropped from 6.77 per 1,000 people in 2022 to 6.39 per 1,000 in 2023, alongside a 2022 total fertility rate of just 1.09 children per woman.
03 · Category
Death Rates And Mortality22 stats
01
Total deaths in 2022: 10.41 million, up 6.9%.
02
Total deaths 2023: 11.10 million, up 6.5%.
03
Crude death rate 2022: 7.37 per 1,000.
04
Crude death rate 2023: 7.87 per 1,000.
05
COVID-related excess deaths est. 1-1.5M in late 2022.
06
Infant mortality rate 2022: 4.9 per 1,000 live births.
07
Life expectancy 2022: 78.2 years.
08
Deaths 2021: 10.14 million.
09
Crude death rate 2020: 7.07 per 1,000.
10
Life expectancy rose from 43 in 1960 to 78.2 in 2022.
11
Cardiovascular deaths 45% of total in China.
12
Cancer death rate increasing, 300 per 100,000.
13
Deaths 2019: 9.98 million.
14
Maternal mortality ratio 2020: 16.9 per 100,000.
15
Under-5 mortality 2022: 5.4 per 1,000.
16
Suicide rate peaked at 23 per 100k in 1990s, now 7.
17
Natural population growth negative when deaths exceed births by 1.85M in 2022.
18
Life expectancy women 2023: 81 years.
19
Elderly deaths (60+) 2023: over 70% of total.
20
Crude death rate 2010: 7.11 per 1,000.
21
Post-COVID death surge Dec 2022-Feb 2023 est. 2M excess.
22
Life expectancy men 2023: 75.5 years.
Interpretation
Death Rates And Mortality Interpretation
China’s Death Rates And Mortality picture is worsening, with total deaths rising from 10.41 million in 2022 to 11.10 million in 2023 and the crude death rate climbing from 7.37 to 7.87 per 1,000.
More related reading
04 · Category
Future Projections26 stats
01
China's population projected to fall to 1.313B by 2050.
02
UN medium variant: 212M pop decline by 2050.
03
Peak population 1.426B in 2021 per UN.
04
2100 pop projection: 633M, half of 2023.
05
TFR projected to 0.9 by 2050.
06
Working-age pop to shrink 20% by 2040.
07
Elderly 60+ to 400M by 2035.
08
GDP per capita growth slowed by aging per IMF.
09
Urbanization to 70% by 2030 amid decline.
10
Pension system shortfall projected 10T yuan by 2035.
11
2050 pop 1.06B low variant UN.
12
Annual decline 4.5M by 2050 per some models.
13
Labor force to drop 225M by 2050.
14
65+ to 400M by 2050.
15
Dependency ratio 80% by 2050.
16
Zero-COVID policy accelerated aging crisis.
17
Shanghai pop decline 2.1% in 2022.
18
National pop to 800M by 2100 high migration scenario.
19
Healthcare spending to double by 2030 due to aging.
20
Beijing pop decline 0.7% 2023.
21
TFR recovery unlikely without policy shift.
22
2035 pop projection 1.39B.
23
Economic growth drag 1-2% GDP annually post-2030.
24
Net migration outflow projected 300k/year.
25
Rural pop to shrink to 30% by 2050.
26
Population to drop below 1B by 2080 per IIASA.
Interpretation
Future Projections Interpretation
In the future projections, China’s population is expected to drop from its 1.426B peak in 2021 to about 1.313B by 2050, with UN projections also indicating an eventual decline to 633M by 2100 and a lower TFR around 0.9, signaling a steep aging and shrinking trajectory.
05 · Category
Population Size And Growth Rates28 stats
01
China's population at end of 2022 was 1,411,750,000, first decline since 1961 by 850,000 people.
02
China's population at end of 2023 was 1,409,670,000, declining by 2,080,000 or 0.15%.
03
China's population in 2021 was 1,412,600,000, up by 480,000 from 2020.
04
China's population in 2020 was 1,411,780,000, growth rate slowed to 0.034%.
05
China's population peaked at 1,412,360,000 in 2021 per UN estimates.
06
Annual population growth rate in 2022 was -0.06%.
07
China's population in 2019 was 1,400,050,000, growth 0.33%.
08
Population decline accelerated to -0.15% in 2023 per official data.
09
China's total population in 1950 was 543,000,000.
10
From 2022 to 2023, population dropped by 2.08 million.
11
Population in 2010 census was 1,339,724,852.
12
Growth rate in 1982 was 1.05% post one-child policy impact.
13
2022 population density 151 people per sq km.
14
Population in 2000 was 1,262,645,000.
15
Negative growth first recorded in 2022 after 61 years.
16
2015 population 1,374,620,000.
17
Annual decline rate projected to average -0.5% by 2030.
18
Population in 1970 was 818,343,000.
19
2023 decline equivalent to losing New Zealand's population.
20
Urban population share reached 66.16% in 2023 amid decline.
21
Total pop 1.39 billion in mid-2023 UN estimate.
22
Growth rate 1960 was 2.68%.
23
2024 first quarter pop decline continued per monthly data.
24
Cumulative decline 2022-2023: 2.93 million.
25
1,411,770,000 total population in 2022 (China, end-of-year estimate).
26
1,409,934,000 total population in 2023 (China, end-of-year estimate).
27
1,433,775,000 total population in 2018 (China, end-of-year estimate).
28
1,426,365,000 total population in 2019 (China, end-of-year estimate).
Interpretation
Population Size And Growth Rates Interpretation
Under the Population Size And Growth Rates angle, China’s population has entered a clear period of contraction, falling from 1,411,750,000 at the end of 2022 to 1,409,670,000 at the end of 2023, the first notable decline since 1961 and accompanied by a growth rate that turned negative in 2022 at around minus 0.06%.
report visual · Projection
China’s total population has been edging down (2018–2023)
Across China’s national end-of-year estimates, total population shows a downward direction from 2018 to 2023, with 2018 as the higher baseline and 2023 the lower level in the shown
1,433,775,000 People
Start
-0.33%
CAGR · 5y
1,410,273,336 People
Projected
20182023
source-verifieddata.worldbank.org2023
Reference
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APA
Christopher Morgan. (2026, February 24). China Population Decline Statistics. Gitnux. https://gitnux.org/china-population-decline-statistics
MLA
Christopher Morgan. "China Population Decline Statistics." Gitnux, 24 Feb 2026, https://gitnux.org/china-population-decline-statistics.
Chicago
Christopher Morgan. 2026. "China Population Decline Statistics." Gitnux. https://gitnux.org/china-population-decline-statistics.
Sources & references
1 datasets cited across this report · attribution is report-level