U.S. auto loan portfolios recorded a rise in serious delinquency during late 2023. The share past due 60 days or more reached 2.39 percent in the third quarter, up from 2.18 percent in the prior quarter. Federal Reserve and rating agency data connect those figures to higher debt service costs, tighter underwriting, and changes in used vehicle prices that affect ultimate loss severity.
Key Takeaways
- 4.6% of commercial bank consumer loans (credit card and other consumer loans; auto loans typically appear in retail credit) were past due 30+ days at end-2023, showing deterioration risk during 2023 macro conditions.
- In 2023, the annual percentage rate (APR) on new motor vehicle loans averaged roughly in the mid-single digits for prime borrowers, while subprime borrowers faced higher rates; higher rates correlate with elevated delinquency risk (context for default).
- The Federal Reserve publishes a ‘Charge-off Rates’ dataset that includes consumer loans, enabling measurement of loss transitions associated with defaults.
- 60+ days delinquency for U.S. auto loan portfolios increased to 2.39% in Q3 2023 from 2.18% in Q2 2023 (illustrating rising auto delinquency/default risk).
- In Experian’s 2024 Motor Vehicle Finance Market report coverage, the share of auto loans 30+ days delinquent in the U.S. was in the low-to-mid single digits, consistent with a cooling default environment versus 2022.
- S&P Global Ratings noted that auto loan delinquencies peaked later in 2023 relative to the first wave of delinquencies, highlighting delayed stress leading into charge-offs.
- Moody’s Analytics reported that U.S. used vehicle prices increased 4.2% in 2024 (year-over-year), which can reduce losses and slow default/charge-offs by improving collateral values.
- Fitch Ratings stated that recovery rates on auto collateral depend materially on used vehicle price trends and time-to-sale, which directly affects loss severity in auto defaults.
- Fitch Ratings noted that auto loan loss expectations depend on both delinquency and recovery assumptions, typically derived from collateral liquidation and used vehicle values.
- J.D. Power reported that the average new vehicle transaction price was about $40,000 in 2023-2024 ranges, increasing loan balances and the exposure of auto lenders to defaults.
- TransUnion’s 2024 credit performance commentary indicated that auto loan delinquencies improved modestly compared to 2023, reflecting normalization in payment strain.
- S&P Global Market Intelligence reported that auto loan originations slowed during 2023-2024 as lenders tightened underwriting, affecting the default mix and portfolio risk.
- The Federal Reserve’s Z.1 statistical release provides consumer credit outstanding totals (retail credit) used to scale default metrics to dollar exposure.
- Federal Reserve household debt servicing ratios provide measurable affordability stress; in 2023, debt service payments for households rose as interest rates increased, raising default pressure.
- The Federal Reserve’s household debt service ratio (as a percent of disposable personal income) is published quarterly and used by analysts to estimate distress that can lead to auto loan defaults.
Auto loan delinquencies rose through 2023, but 2024’s improving affordability and collateral softened default risk.
Related reading
01 · Category
Credit Delinquency4 stats
01
4.6% of commercial bank consumer loans (credit card and other consumer loans; auto loans typically appear in retail credit) were past due 30+ days at end-2023, showing deterioration risk during 2023 macro conditions.
02
In 2023, the annual percentage rate (APR) on new motor vehicle loans averaged roughly in the mid-single digits for prime borrowers, while subprime borrowers faced higher rates; higher rates correlate with elevated delinquency risk (context for default).
03
The Federal Reserve publishes a ‘Charge-off Rates’ dataset that includes consumer loans, enabling measurement of loss transitions associated with defaults.
04
FDIC’s Quarterly Banking Profile includes charge-off and delinquency measures for loans, offering measurable credit-loss indicators across institutions.
Interpretation
Credit Delinquency Interpretation
For the credit delinquency angle on auto lending, the available data point to persistently low but meaningful stress levels, with about 4.6% of consumer loans past due 3 months or more and credit-loss tracking from Federal Reserve and FDIC charge off and delinquency measures helping confirm that risk remains measurable rather than disappearing.
02 · Category
Default Rates3 stats
01
60+ days delinquency for U.S. auto loan portfolios increased to 2.39% in Q3 2023 from 2.18% in Q2 2023 (illustrating rising auto delinquency/default risk).
02
In Experian’s 2024 Motor Vehicle Finance Market report coverage, the share of auto loans 30+ days delinquent in the U.S. was in the low-to-mid single digits, consistent with a cooling default environment versus 2022.
03
S&P Global Ratings noted that auto loan delinquencies peaked later in 2023 relative to the first wave of delinquencies, highlighting delayed stress leading into charge-offs.
Interpretation
Default Rates Interpretation
Under Default Rates, U.S. auto loan stress is rising as 60+ day delinquency climbed to 2.39% in Q3 2023 from 2.18% in Q2 2023, and later 2023 readings and delayed peaks suggest delinquencies persisted beyond the initial wave.
03 · Category
Loss Severity4 stats
01
Moody’s Analytics reported that U.S. used vehicle prices increased 4.2% in 2024 (year-over-year), which can reduce losses and slow default/charge-offs by improving collateral values.
02
Fitch Ratings stated that recovery rates on auto collateral depend materially on used vehicle price trends and time-to-sale, which directly affects loss severity in auto defaults.
03
Fitch Ratings noted that auto loan loss expectations depend on both delinquency and recovery assumptions, typically derived from collateral liquidation and used vehicle values.
04
Moody’s Analytics described that used vehicle auction volumes and vehicle supply constraints can affect time-to-sell and recovery values that influence default severity.
Interpretation
Loss Severity Interpretation
For the Loss Severity angle, Moody’s Analytics indicates that U.S. used vehicle prices rose 4.2% year over year in 2024, which can reduce loss severity by improving recoveries and slowing defaults as time to sell plays out.
More related reading
04 · Category
Industry Trends6 stats
01
J.D. Power reported that the average new vehicle transaction price was about $40,000in 2023-2024 ranges, increasing loan balances and the exposure of auto lenders to defaults.
02
TransUnion’s 2024 credit performance commentary indicated that auto loan delinquencies improved modestly compared to 2023, reflecting normalization in payment strain.
03
S&P Global Market Intelligence reported that auto loan originations slowed during 2023-2024 as lenders tightened underwriting, affecting the default mix and portfolio risk.
04
CFPB reported that complaints related to consumer credit increased in 2023-2024, which can be an indicator of payment distress and default-related issues in consumer lending.
05
S&P Global reported that underwriting standards tightened in 2023 as lenders responded to higher funding costs, affecting origination mix and future default performance.
06
The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration reported over 40,000 roadway fatalities in recent years, which can affect vehicle ownership/usage and insurance claims—indirectly influencing auto loan risk exposure.
Interpretation
Industry Trends Interpretation
Industry Trends point to a tightening auto lending environment as new vehicle prices hover around $40,000 in 2023 to 2024, while auto loan originations slowed and delinquency trends improved only modestly according to 2024 reporting, suggesting underwriting became stricter even as credit stress signs surfaced through rising consumer credit complaints.
05 · Category
Market Size1 stats
01
The Federal Reserve’s Z.1 statistical release provides consumer credit outstanding totals (retail credit) used to scale default metrics to dollar exposure.
Interpretation
Market Size Interpretation
The Federal Reserve Z.1 consumer credit outstanding totals for retail credit provide the market size yardstick that lets default metrics be scaled across the consumer auto loan segment, anchoring the overall default picture to the level of consumer credit activity reported by the Fed.
06 · Category
Affordability8 stats
01
Federal Reserve household debt servicing ratios provide measurable affordability stress; in 2023, debt service payments for households rose as interest rates increased, raising default pressure.
02
The Federal Reserve’s household debt service ratio (as a percent of disposable personal income) is published quarterly and used by analysts to estimate distress that can lead to auto loan defaults.
03
The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Household Debt and Credit report series documents that interest rate changes translate into higher required payments for floating or adjustable credit products (payment burden channel into auto defaults).
04
TransUnion reported that financing with higher loan-to-value (LTV) increases default exposure and loss severity, since repossession collateral covers less of the balance.
05
U.S. unemployment rate averaged about 4.1% in 2024 through the latest available period, increasing macro risk for consumer delinquencies including auto loans.
06
BLS data show median household income is a measurable affordability factor; changes in income-to-debt coverage are associated with delinquency risks.
07
CPI inflation measured by BLS has been lower in 2024 versus 2022 peaks; lower inflation can relieve cost burdens and improve repayment capacity for auto loan borrowers.
08
Federal funds rate history shows sustained restrictive policy through 2023-2024, keeping financing costs elevated relative to pre-2022 levels.
Interpretation
Affordability Interpretation
In 2023, rising household debt service payments alongside a higher debt service ratio as a share of disposable personal income points to mounting affordability stress, and with unemployment averaging about 4.1% in 2024 this added macro pressure could further raise the risk of auto loan default.
report visual · Comparison
Auto loan delinquency and stress in 2023 vs early 2024
Auto delinquency rose during 2023 and then eased into 2024, indicating worsening default risk before a modest normalization.
In Experian’s 2024 Motor Vehicle Finance Market report coverage, the share of auto loans 30+ days delinquent in the U.S.2024
4.6% of commercial bank consumer loans (credit card and other consumer loans; auto loans typically appear in retail cred
4.6%
60+ days delinquency for U.S. auto loan portfolios increased to 2.39% in Q3 2023 from 2.18% in Q2 2023 (illustrating ris
2.39%
source-verifiedcarfax.com · experian.com · federalreserve.gov2024
Reference
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APA
Kevin O'Brien. (2026, February 13). Auto Loan Default Statistics. Gitnux. https://gitnux.org/auto-loan-default-statistics
MLA
Kevin O'Brien. "Auto Loan Default Statistics." Gitnux, 13 Feb 2026, https://gitnux.org/auto-loan-default-statistics.
Chicago
Kevin O'Brien. 2026. "Auto Loan Default Statistics." Gitnux. https://gitnux.org/auto-loan-default-statistics.
Sources & references
26 datasets cited across this report · attribution is report-level
+13 additional datasets cited (not shown individually)