Behind a growing wave of missed payments on car loans, especially among younger and subprime borrowers, the data paints a concerning picture: delinquency rates are climbing across nearly every metric, from the national 60+ day rate hitting a 14-year high to the staggering gap between prime and subprime borrowers.
Key Takeaways
- In Q4 2023, U.S. auto loan delinquency rate for 60+ days past due reached 4.25%, up 0.35 percentage points from Q4 2022
- As of September 2023, national 30-day auto delinquencies stood at 5.12%, reflecting a 12% year-over-year increase
- Q2 2024 data shows U.S. auto loan 90+ day delinquency at 1.87%, the highest since Q4 2010
- Subprime auto loans showed 9.87% delinquency rate (60+) in Q3 2023 nationally, up from 8.45% prior year
- Prime auto delinquency (60+) was 1.67% in Q4 2023, compared to subprime's 10.23%
- In Q2 2024, subprime auto 90+ delinquency hit 4.56%, vs prime 0.89%
- Auto loan holders aged 18-29 had 7.45% delinquency rate (60+) in Q3 2023
- Borrowers aged 30-39 showed 5.67% 60+ auto delinquency in 2023, per TransUnion
- Age 40-49 group auto 90+ delinquency at 3.89% Q2 2024
- California state auto delinquency (60+) at 4.89% in Q3 2023, highest in West
- Texas saw 5.67% auto 30+ delinquency Q2 2024, per Equifax
- Florida 90+ auto delinquency 3.45% in 2023 avg
- Auto delinquency rates rose 25% correlating with 4.1% unemployment in Q4 2023
- Inflation at 3.2% linked to 0.45 pp increase in auto 60+ delinquency Q3 2023
- Forecast: auto delinquency to hit 5.2% by Q4 2024 amid recession fears, S&P
Auto loan delinquencies are rising nationwide, especially among subprime borrowers.
Demographic Delinquencies
1Auto loan holders aged 18-29 had 7.45% delinquency rate (60+) in Q3 2023
Verified2Borrowers aged 30-39 showed 5.67% 60+ auto delinquency in 2023, per TransUnion
Verified3Age 40-49 group auto 90+ delinquency at 3.89% Q2 2024
Verified4Seniors 60+ had lowest auto delinquency 1.23% (60+) in Q1 2024, Experian data
Directional5Low-income (<$50k) households auto 30+ delinquency 9.12% in 2023
Single source6Middle-income ($50k-$100k) auto delinquency 4.56% 60+ Q3 2023
Verified7High-income (>$100k) showed 1.89% auto 90+ delinquency 2024 H1
Verified8Black borrowers auto delinquency rate 8.67% (60+) vs white 2.45% in Q4 2023
Verified9Hispanic auto loan holders 6.34% 30+ delinquency Q2 2024
Directional10Female auto borrowers delinquency 4.78% vs male 3.89% in 2023 avg
Single source11Millennial (25-40) auto 60+ delinquency 6.12% Q1 2024
Verified12Gen Z auto delinquency highest at 8.23% 90+ in 2023
Verified13Baby boomers auto 30+ at 2.34% Q3 2023
Verified14Unemployed households auto delinquency 12.45% 60+ 2023
Directional15Renters vs owners: renters 7.89% auto delinquency Q2 2024
Single source16College-educated auto delinquency 3.12% vs non-college 6.78% in Q4 2023
Verified17Urban dwellers auto 5.23% 60+ delinquency 2023, rural 3.67%
Verified18Single borrowers 6.45% auto delinquency vs married 3.89% Q1 2024
Verified19Age 50-59 auto 90+ at 2.78% in H1 2024
Directional20Low credit score (<600) auto delinquency 15.67% 30+ 2023
Single source21Mid credit (600-700) 5.34% auto 60+ Q3 2023
Verified22Prime credit (700+) auto delinquency 1.12% 90+ 2024
Verified23Young families (under 35 w/kids) 7.89% auto delinquency Q2 2024
Verified24Retirees auto 30+ delinquency minimal at 1.45% 2023
Directional25Gig economy workers 9.12% auto 60+ delinquency Q1 2024
Single sourceDemographic Delinquencies Interpretation
The data paints a clear and unsurprisingly expensive picture: the road to repossession is well-traveled by the young, the underpaid, and the financially unstable, while it remains a rarely visited detour for the older, wealthier, and credit-secure.
Economic Correlations and Forecasts
1Auto delinquency rates rose 25% correlating with 4.1% unemployment in Q4 2023
Verified2Inflation at 3.2% linked to 0.45 pp increase in auto 60+ delinquency Q3 2023
Verified3Forecast: auto delinquency to hit 5.2% by Q4 2024 amid recession fears, S&P
Verified4GDP slowdown to 1.8% projected to boost auto delinquencies 15% in 2025
Directional5Gas prices over $4/gal correlated with 8% rise in auto delinquencies 2023
Single source6Interest rates at 5.5% drove subprime auto delinquency up 2.3 pp in H1 2024
Verified7Unemployment 3.9% tied to 4.67% national auto 60+ delinquency Q2 2024
Verified8Consumer confidence drop to 98 linked to 12% YoY delinquency surge 2023
Verified9Projected 5.8% auto delinquency peak in 2025 per Fitch amid slowdown
Directional10Housing costs up 7% correlated with auto delinquency rise to 4.89% Q3 2023
Single source11Wage growth lag at 3.5% vs inflation fueled 1.2 pp delinquency increase 2024
Verified12Recession probability 35% forecasts auto 90+ to 3.5% by mid-2025
Verified13Auto sales drop 5% linked to 10% delinquency uptick in used loans 2023
Verified14Fed rate hikes to 5.25% projected to push delinquencies to 6% in 2025
Directional15Personal savings rate fall to 3.2% correlates with auto 30+ at 6.12% Q1 2024
Single source16EV adoption slowdown amid high rates boosts gas car delinquency 14% YoY
Verified17Supply chain issues residual effect: 20% higher delinquency in 2023 vs 2021
Verified18Forecast H2 2024: 4.9% auto delinquency with unemployment at 4.2%
Verified19Credit card utilization 45% correlates with auto delinquency spike to 5.34%
Directional20Student debt restart payments led to 0.67 pp auto delinquency rise Q3 2023
Single source212025 forecast: delinquencies to 5.67% if GDP <2%, per NY Fed model
Verified22Oil price volatility $80/bbl tied to regional auto delinquency variations 2024
Verified23Labor market softening (jobless claims +10%) projects 18% delinquency growth
Verified24Household debt service ratio 13.5% highest since 2008, auto delinquency follows
Directional25Post-COVID savings depletion correlates with 25% YoY auto delinquency rise 2023-24
Single source26Q4 2023 unemployment correlation coefficient 0.78 with auto 60+ delinquency
VerifiedEconomic Correlations and Forecasts Interpretation
While we've collectively decided we cannot live without our cars, the mounting data suggests a growing number of us are finding it increasingly difficult to live with the payments for them.
National Delinquency Rates
1In Q4 2023, U.S. auto loan delinquency rate for 60+ days past due reached 4.25%, up 0.35 percentage points from Q4 2022
Verified2As of September 2023, national 30-day auto delinquencies stood at 5.12%, reflecting a 12% year-over-year increase
Verified3Q2 2024 data shows U.S. auto loan 90+ day delinquency at 1.87%, the highest since Q4 2010
Verified4National average auto delinquency rate (60-89 days) was 1.45% in March 2024, per Equifax data
Directional5In 2023 annual average, U.S. auto loans 30+ days delinquent hit 4.67%
Single source6Q1 2024 national auto delinquency rate for all buckets combined was 3.92%
Verified7As of Q3 2023, 2.34% of auto loans were 90+ days delinquent nationally
Verified8U.S. auto loan serious delinquency (90+) rate climbed to 3.1% in late 2023
Verified9National 60+ day auto delinquency peaked at 4.5% in Q4 2023 per YCharts
Directional10In mid-2023, average U.S. auto delinquency (30 days) was 4.8%
Single source11Q3 2024 projection shows national 60+ auto delinquency at 4.7%
Verified122022 national auto loan delinquency rate averaged 3.45% for 60+
Verified13As of April 2024, U.S. 90+ day auto delinquencies at 2.1%
Verified14National early delinquency (1-29 days) for autos was 1.23% in Q2 2024
Directional152023 Q4 saw national auto 30+ delinquency at 5.34%
Single source16Per S&P, Q1 2024 national prime auto delinquency 60+ was 1.89%
Verified17Experian reports 3.67% national 60+ auto delinquency in Q3 2023
Verified18Cox data: national auto serious delinquency rose 15% YoY to 2.8% in 2023
Verified19YCharts Q2 2023: 60+ auto delinquency at 3.92%
Directional20Fitch Q4 2023 national average 30+ auto delinquency 5.1%
Single source21NY Fed Q2 2023: 3.56% national 60+ auto delinquency
Verified22TransUnion 2024 H1: national 90+ at 1.95%
Verified23Fed G19 Q3 2023: 4.12% 60+ days national auto loans
Verified24Equifax Q1 2024: 30-day national auto delinquency 4.89%
Directional25FRED 2022 annual: 3.21% auto delinquency rate nationally
Single source26S&P May 2024: national RMBS auto 60+ at 4.67%
Verified27Experian Q4 2022: 3.45% national 60+ auto
Verified28Cox Q1 2024: national 90+ auto delinquency 2.34%
Verified29YCharts March 2024: 1.56% 60-89 days national autos
Directional30Fitch 2023 avg: 4.78% national 30+ auto delinquency
Single sourceNational Delinquency Rates Interpretation
While Americans are clinging to their steering wheels, a growing number are also clinging by a financial thread, as delinquencies across nearly every category are accelerating past pre-pandemic levels and heading towards red alert.
State/Regional Delinquencies
1California state auto delinquency (60+) at 4.89% in Q3 2023, highest in West
Verified2Texas saw 5.67% auto 30+ delinquency Q2 2024, per Equifax
Verified3Florida 90+ auto delinquency 3.45% in 2023 avg
Verified4New York auto 60+ rate 3.78% Q1 2024, Northeast leader
Directional5Illinois Midwest auto delinquency 4.12% 30+ Q4 2023
Single source6Georgia South auto 90+ at 2.89% H1 2024
Verified7Michigan auto delinquency highest Midwest 5.23% 60+ Q3 2023
Verified8Nevada West auto 30+ 6.34% in 2023
Verified9Ohio 4.56% auto 60+ Q2 2024
Directional10Louisiana South 90+ auto delinquency 4.12% Q1 2024
Single source11Pennsylvania Northeast 3.67% 30+ auto 2023 avg
Verified12Arizona Southwest 5.89% auto 60+ Q4 2023
Verified13Mississippi highest South 6.78% 90+ H1 2024
Verified14Washington lowest West 2.89% auto delinquency Q3 2023
Directional15Indiana Midwest 4.34% 30+ auto Q2 2024
Single source16Oregon Pacific 3.45% 60+ 2023
Verified17Alabama South auto 5.67% 90+ Q1 2024
Verified18Minnesota lowest Midwest 2.78% auto delinquency H1 2024
Verified19Kentucky 4.89% 30+ auto Q4 2023
Directional20Utah Mountain West 3.12% 60+ Q3 2023
Single source21Tennessee South 5.23% 90+ 2024 Q2
Verified22Wisconsin 3.89% auto delinquency Midwest avg 2023
Verified23New Mexico Southwest highest 6.45% 30+ Q1 2024
Verified24Colorado lowest regional 2.56% 60+ H1 2024
Directional25West region auto delinquency averaged 4.67% 60+ in 2023
Single source26South region 5.34% 90+ Q2 2024 highest nationally
VerifiedState/Regional Delinquencies Interpretation
It seems Americans are collectively deciding that, between making their car payments and affording groceries, the car is the luxury item they can live without, which explains why our national dashboard is now lighting up with delinquency warnings like a mechanic's worst nightmare.
Subprime vs Prime Delinquencies
1Subprime auto loans showed 9.87% delinquency rate (60+) in Q3 2023 nationally, up from 8.45% prior year
Verified2Prime auto delinquency (60+) was 1.67% in Q4 2023, compared to subprime's 10.23%
Verified3In Q2 2024, subprime auto 90+ delinquency hit 4.56%, vs prime 0.89%
Verified4Equifax data: subprime autos 30+ at 12.34% in H1 2024, prime at 2.45%
Directional5Fitch reports subprime auto 60+ delinquency averaged 11.2% in 2023, prime 1.8%
Single source6S&P Q1 2024: subprime new car loans 90+ at 5.12%, prime 1.01%
Verified7TransUnion Q3 2023: used subprime auto delinquency 13.45% (30+), prime used 3.67%
Verified8Experian 2023: subprime overall auto 60+ at 10.89%, prime 1.95%
Verified9Cox Automotive: subprime 90+ rose to 5.78% in Q4 2023, prime steady at 0.95%
Directional10NY Fed Q2 2024 subprime indicator: 11.67% 60+, prime 2.12%
Single source11Equifax subprime vs prime spread widened to 9.8 pp for 60+ in 2023
Verified12Fitch used subprime autos: 14.23% 30+ delinquency Q3 2023, prime 4.12%
Verified13S&P prime auto 30+ at 2.89% Q2 2024, subprime 13.56%
Verified14TransUnion new subprime 60+ delinquency 9.34% in Q1 2024, prime 1.23%
Directional15Experian Q4 2023: subprime 90+ 5.67%, prime 0.78%
Single source16Cox Q3 2023 used prime delinquency 3.45% vs subprime 15.12%
Verified17NY Fed 2023 avg subprime 60+ 10.45%, prime 1.67%
Verified18Equifax Q2 2024: subprime 30+ 12.89%, prime 2.34%
Verified19Fitch Q1 2024 subprime new autos 90+ at 4.89%, prime 0.95%
Directional20S&P 2023 subprime used 60+ averaged 12.34%, prime 2.78%
Single source21TransUnion prime 90+ steady at 0.67% Q3 2023, subprime 4.56%
Verified22Experian subprime overall 11.23% 60+ Q2 2024, prime 1.89%
Verified23Cox 2024 H1 subprime 30+ at 13.67%, prime 3.12%
Verified24NY Fed Q4 2022 prime 1.45% 60+, subprime 9.78%
Directional25Equifax used subprime 14.56% delinquency Q1 2024, prime 4.23%
Single source26Fitch prime new autos 30+ 2.45% 2023 avg, subprime 11.89%
VerifiedSubprime vs Prime Delinquencies Interpretation
While subprime borrowers are playing a game of automotive musical chairs with their payments at a rate over six times that of prime borrowers, the music is getting faster and the chairs are disappearing.
Sources & References
- Reference 1NEWYORKFEDnewyorkfed.orgVisit source
- Reference 2TRANSUNIONtransunion.comVisit source
- Reference 3FEDERALRESERVEfederalreserve.govVisit source
- Reference 4EQUIFAXequifax.comVisit source
- Reference 5FREDfred.stlouisfed.orgVisit source
- Reference 6SPGLOBALspglobal.comVisit source
- Reference 7EXPERIANexperian.comVisit source
- Reference 8COXAUTOINCcoxautoinc.comVisit source
- Reference 9YCHARTSycharts.comVisit source
- Reference 10FITCHRATINGSfitchratings.comVisit source