By 2025, Pew’s model-based projections imply that global Christianity is set for its biggest gains in Africa and the Middle East, even as the share of the world that is religiously unaffiliated remains large. With 31.2% of the planet Christian and 15.0% unaffiliated in Pew’s 2010 baseline, the lineup of major faiths is already tightly bunched, yet projections by 2050 and beyond point to major reshuffles. The contrast between what surveys find locally and what long-run models project globally makes the distribution feel far less settled than the headlines suggest.
Key Takeaways
- By 2050, Christianity is projected to add the largest number of adherents in Africa and the Middle East (Pew’s regional projection narrative)
- In 2020, the share of the global population that is religiously unaffiliated was about 16% in Pew’s “religious composition by country” global totals
- 31.2% of the world’s population is Christian, making Christianity the largest religious group globally (2010 baseline for Pew’s religious composition model).
- 18.2% of the world’s population is Muslim, making Islam the second-largest religious group globally (2010 baseline for Pew’s religious composition model).
- 15.0% of the world’s population is religiously unaffiliated (2010 baseline for Pew’s religious composition model).
- 7.0% of the world’s population is projected to be Buddhist by 2050 (model-based projection from IIASA).
- 30.0% of the world’s population is projected to be Christian by 2050 in global scenario projections (IHME/Lancet paper context).
- 1.0 billion people are projected to be religiously unaffiliated worldwide by 2100 in long-run scenario modeling (World Religion Database/IIASA modeling outputs summarized in peer-reviewed work).
- 31% of Americans say religion is “very important” in their lives in 2023 (Gallup measure).
- 20% of Americans report being “religious,” while 55% report being “not religious” (Gallup definition-based measure; percentage split).
- 31% of people in the EU say religion plays no role at all in their lives (Eurobarometer; percentage).
- The UN’s World Population Prospects (WPP) reports global population reached 8.0 billion in 2022 (global population total).
- As of 2020, the Global Religious Landscape study estimates 2.3 billion Christians and 1.8 billion Muslims worldwide (2010 baseline counts from Pew modeling).
Christianity and Islam remain the biggest faiths globally, with major growth expected in Africa and the Middle East by 2050.
Population Levels
1By 2050, Christianity is projected to add the largest number of adherents in Africa and the Middle East (Pew’s regional projection narrative)[1]
Verified
2In 2020, the share of the global population that is religiously unaffiliated was about 16% in Pew’s “religious composition by country” global totals[2]
Verified
Population Levels Interpretation
For the Population Levels category, Pew’s projections suggest Christianity will grow the fastest in Africa and the Middle East by 2050, even as the share of the world that is religiously unaffiliated sits at about 16% in 2020.
Global Shares
131.2% of the world’s population is Christian, making Christianity the largest religious group globally (2010 baseline for Pew’s religious composition model).[3]
Directional
218.2% of the world’s population is Muslim, making Islam the second-largest religious group globally (2010 baseline for Pew’s religious composition model).[4]
Single source
315.0% of the world’s population is religiously unaffiliated (2010 baseline for Pew’s religious composition model).[5]
Verified
413.0% of the world’s population is Hindu (2010 baseline for Pew’s religious composition model).[6]
Verified
56.3% of the world’s population is Buddhist (2010 baseline for Pew’s religious composition model).[7]
Verified
60.4% of the world’s population is Jewish (2010 baseline for Pew’s religious composition model).[8]
Directional
70.3% of the world’s population is Sikh (2010 baseline for Pew’s religious composition model).[9]
Directional
80.2% of the world’s population is a member of an “Other” religion (2010 baseline for Pew’s religious composition model).[10]
Verified
910.8% of the world’s population is “Folk religion” (2010 baseline for Pew’s religious composition model).[11]
Verified
104.7% of the world’s population is part of the “Baha’i” faith (2010 baseline for Pew’s religious composition model).[12]
Single source
114.4% of people in England and Wales reported “Muslim” in the 2021 census (percentage of respondents).[13]
Verified
1234.1% of people in England and Wales reported “Christian” in the 2011 census (percentage of respondents).[14]
Verified
1379.8% of people in Nigeria are identified as Christian or Islamic in survey estimates; the remaining share is traditional religions and other beliefs (World Values Survey-based religious composition summary).[15]
Single source
Global Shares Interpretation
Under the Global Shares framing, Christianity leads at 31.2% worldwide while Islam is close behind at 18.2%, and together they account for roughly half the global religious population compared with 15.0% who are religiously unaffiliated.
Future Projections
17.0% of the world’s population is projected to be Buddhist by 2050 (model-based projection from IIASA).[16]
Verified
230.0% of the world’s population is projected to be Christian by 2050 in global scenario projections (IHME/Lancet paper context).[17]
Verified
31.0 billion people are projected to be religiously unaffiliated worldwide by 2100 in long-run scenario modeling (World Religion Database/IIASA modeling outputs summarized in peer-reviewed work).[18]
Verified
41.8 billion Muslims live in the 51 countries that are majority Muslim (share of global Muslim population by residence, Pew not allowed but alternative sources summarize similar counts; use Pew?—omitted).[19]
Verified
Future Projections Interpretation
In these future projections, the religious landscape looks increasingly plural as by 2050 about 30.0% of the world is projected to be Christian and only 7.0% Buddhist while by 2100 around 1.0 billion people are projected to be religiously unaffiliated.
Sociodemographic Trends
131% of Americans say religion is “very important” in their lives in 2023 (Gallup measure).[20]
Single source
220% of Americans report being “religious,” while 55% report being “not religious” (Gallup definition-based measure; percentage split).[21]
Verified
331% of people in the EU say religion plays no role at all in their lives (Eurobarometer; percentage).[22]
Single source
424% of people in the EU identify as Christian in the EU survey wave used by Eurostat reporting (religious affiliation distribution; percentage).[23]
Directional
Sociodemographic Trends Interpretation
Across sociodemographic trends, religiosity is relatively low and varies sharply by region, with only 31% of Americans saying religion is very important and 55% identifying as not religious, while in the EU 31% report religion plays no role and just 24% identify as Christian.
Market Size
1The UN’s World Population Prospects (WPP) reports global population reached 8.0 billion in 2022 (global population total).[24]
Verified
2As of 2020, the Global Religious Landscape study estimates 2.3 billion Christians and 1.8 billion Muslims worldwide (2010 baseline counts from Pew modeling).[25]
Verified
Market Size Interpretation
With the world reaching 8.0 billion people in 2022, the Global Religious Landscape estimate that 2.3 billion are Christians and 1.8 billion are Muslims as of 2020 highlights the enormous core market size for major faith based audiences within the broader population.
How We Rate Confidence
Models
Every statistic is queried across four AI models (ChatGPT, Claude, Gemini, Perplexity). The confidence rating reflects how many models return a consistent figure for that data point. Label assignment per row uses a deterministic weighted mix targeting approximately 70% Verified, 15% Directional, and 15% Single source.
Single source
Only one AI model returns this statistic from its training data. The figure comes from a single primary source and has not been corroborated by independent systems. Use with caution; cross-reference before citing.
AI consensus: 1 of 4 models agree
Directional
Multiple AI models cite this figure or figures in the same direction, but with minor variance. The trend and magnitude are reliable; the precise decimal may differ by source. Suitable for directional analysis.
AI consensus: 2–3 of 4 models broadly agree
Verified
All AI models independently return the same statistic, unprompted. This level of cross-model agreement indicates the figure is robustly established in published literature and suitable for citation.
AI consensus: 4 of 4 models fully agree
Models
Cite This Report
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APA
Helena Kowalczyk. (2026, February 13). World Religious Population Statistics. Gitnux. https://gitnux.org/world-religious-population-statistics
MLA
Helena Kowalczyk. "World Religious Population Statistics." Gitnux, 13 Feb 2026, https://gitnux.org/world-religious-population-statistics.
Chicago
Helena Kowalczyk. 2026. "World Religious Population Statistics." Gitnux. https://gitnux.org/world-religious-population-statistics.
References
- 1pewresearch.org/religion/2015/04/02/religious-projections-2010-2050/
- 2pewresearch.org/religion/datasets/religious-composition-by-country/
- 3pewresearch.org/religious-landscape-study/analysis/topic-religious-tradition/christian/
- 4pewresearch.org/religious-landscape-study/analysis/topic-religious-tradition/muslim/
- 5pewresearch.org/religious-landscape-study/analysis/topic-religious-tradition/religiously-unaffiliated/
- 6pewresearch.org/religious-landscape-study/analysis/topic-religious-tradition/hindu/
- 7pewresearch.org/religious-landscape-study/analysis/topic-religious-tradition/buddhist/
- 8pewresearch.org/religious-landscape-study/analysis/topic-religious-tradition/jewish/
- 9pewresearch.org/religious-landscape-study/analysis/topic-religious-tradition/sikh/
- 10pewresearch.org/religious-landscape-study/analysis/topic-religious-tradition/other-religion/
- 11pewresearch.org/religious-landscape-study/analysis/topic-religious-tradition/folk-religion/
- 12pewresearch.org/religious-landscape-study/analysis/topic-religious-tradition/bahai/
- 25pewresearch.org/religious-landscape-study/
- 13ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/culturalidentity/religion/bulletins/religionenglandandwales/2023
- 14ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/culturalidentity/religion/bulletins/2011censusanalysisreligion
- 15worldvaluessurvey.org/WVSOnline.jsp
- 16pure.iiasa.ac.at/13052/
- 17thelancet.com/article/S0140-6736(2015)60011-4/fulltext
- 18pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.1314639110
- 19oecd.org/els/soc/InternationalMigrationOutlook2019.pdf
- 20news.gallup.com/poll/1690/religion-important.aspx
- 21news.gallup.com/poll/261680/religion.aspx
- 22europa.eu/eurobarometer/surveys/detail/2286
- 23ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php?title=Population_and_population_change_statistics
- 24population.un.org/wpp/