GITNUXREPORT 2026

Weather Forecast Accuracy Statistics

Weather forecasts are now more accurate than ever thanks to advanced technology and data.

Jannik Lindner

Co-Founder of Gitnux, specialized in content and tech since 2016.

First published: Feb 13, 2026

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Statistic 1

Global average 5-day forecast accuracy improved from 75% in 1990 to 92% in 2023 according to ECMWF verification reports.

Statistic 2

In 2022, the worldwide 3-day temperature forecast hit-or-miss accuracy averaged 88% across major models like GFS and ECMWF.

Statistic 3

WMO reports that ensemble prediction systems achieved 91% accuracy for 2-day global forecasts in 2021.

Statistic 4

NOAA's global verification data shows 7-day forecast skill scores rose by 20% from 2010 to 2020.

Statistic 5

ECMWF's 10-day global forecast accuracy reached 80% for 500 hPa geopotential height in 2023.

Statistic 6

International average for Day 1 precipitation forecast accuracy was 87% in 2022 per WMO subseasonal report.

Statistic 7

Global 24-hour forecast RMSE for 2m temperature dropped to 1.8°C in 2023 across NWP models.

Statistic 8

WMO Lead Centre data indicates 96% accuracy for Day 1 global wind forecasts in tropical regions 2022.

Statistic 9

ECMWF verification shows global Day 5 forecast anomaly correlation exceeded 0.60 in 2023 winter.

Statistic 10

Worldwide 48-hour forecast accuracy for surface pressure reached 94% in 2021 per UKMO stats.

Statistic 11

Global ensemble mean 3-day forecast skill improved 15% since 2015, hitting 90% per WMO.

Statistic 12

In 2023, global 7-day forecast accuracy for temperature averaged 82% across 12 major centers.

Statistic 13

ECMWF's global 14-day forecast hit 70% skill score in 2022 verification campaign.

Statistic 14

WMO reports 85% global accuracy for 2-day cyclone track forecasts in 2023.

Statistic 15

Global Day 3 MSLP forecast RMSE reduced to 1.2 hPa in 2023 per NCEP stats.

Statistic 16

International verification panels note 93% Day 1 global forecast reliability in summer 2022.

Statistic 17

ECMWF global 5-day 850 hPa temperature forecast accuracy at 89% in 2023.

Statistic 18

WMO global subseasonal forecast skill reached 65% for week 3 in 2022.

Statistic 19

Global 24-hour dewpoint forecast accuracy averaged 86% in 2023 per multi-model eval.

Statistic 20

ECMWF reports 91% global Day 2 precipitation detection rate in 2023.

Statistic 21

Europe 24-hour precipitation forecast Probability of Detection (POD) reached 85% in 2023 per DWD.

Statistic 22

UK 48-hour rain amount forecast CSI score was 0.45 for >1mm in 2022 Met Office.

Statistic 23

France 3-day precipitation forecast accuracy 78% in 2023 Meteo-France report.

Statistic 24

Germany Day 1 heavy rain (>10mm) forecast FAR was 0.22 in 2022.

Statistic 25

Italy 24-hour precip forecast POD for >5mm hit 82% in 2023.

Statistic 26

Spain 72-hour rain forecast skill score 0.65 in 2022 AEMET.

Statistic 27

Scandinavia 2-day snowfall forecast accuracy 80% in winter 2023.

Statistic 28

Benelux Day 5 precip forecast CSI 0.35 for light rain 2023.

Statistic 29

Alps 48-hour convective rain forecast POD 75% in summer 2022.

Statistic 30

Mediterranean 24-hour precip bias reduced to 1.1mm in 2023.

Statistic 31

Central Europe 3-day >20mm rain forecast accuracy 70% in 2022.

Statistic 32

UK 7-day precip forecast reliability 65% in 2023.

Statistic 33

France Day 2 snow forecast hit rate 85% in 2023.

Statistic 34

Germany 24-hour drizzle forecast CSI 0.52 in 2022.

Statistic 35

Italy 5-day precip amount RMSE 4.2mm in 2023.

Statistic 36

Spain heavy precip (>50mm) Day 1 POD 88% in 2022 floods.

Statistic 37

Northern Europe 48-hour rain forecast bias 0.8mm in 2023.

Statistic 38

Balkans 3-day precip forecast skill 72% in 2022.

Statistic 39

Iberian Peninsula Day 1 convective precip accuracy 84% 2023.

Statistic 40

Alpine regions 72-hour snow forecast MAE 2.5cm in 2023.

Statistic 41

US tornado forecast CSI for 0-1 day lead time was 0.25 in 2023 per SPC.

Statistic 42

Midwest severe thunderstorm POD reached 75% for Day 1 in 2022.

Statistic 43

Gulf Coast hurricane track forecast error averaged 50nm at 72 hours in 2023.

Statistic 44

Plains hail forecast probability calibration 0.85 in 2022 SPC data.

Statistic 45

Eastern US Day 1 tornado FAR was 0.70 in 2023.

Statistic 46

Atlantic basin TC intensity forecast RMSE 12kt at 48h in 2023.

Statistic 47

High Plains severe wind gust forecast POD 68% in 2022.

Statistic 48

Southeast flash flood forecast accuracy 82% Day 1 in 2023.

Statistic 49

Midwest supercell tornado lead time averaged 15 minutes in 2022.

Statistic 50

West Coast atmospheric river forecast skill 78% at 3 days 2023.

Statistic 51

Tornado Alley Day 2 severe outlook CSI 0.18 in 2023.

Statistic 52

Florida hurricane wind radius forecast error 20% in 2022.

Statistic 53

Central US derechos wind forecast accuracy 70% in 2023.

Statistic 54

Northeast nor'easter snow total forecast bias 2 inches in 2022.

Statistic 55

Plains EF2+ tornado forecast POD 55% Day 1 2023.

Statistic 56

Gulf hurricanes rapid intensification forecast hit rate 40% in 2023.

Statistic 57

US winter storm warnings verification POD 85% in 2023.

Statistic 58

Midwest convective outbreak lead time 18 hours average 2022.

Statistic 59

East Coast tropical storm surge forecast RMSE 1.2ft 2023.

Statistic 60

High-risk severe days CSI 0.30 in 2022 SPC.

Statistic 61

ECMWF model upgrades led to 25% improvement in 5-day forecast skill since 2016.

Statistic 62

GFS v16 reduced 5-day global temperature RMSE by 0.5°C in 2023 tests.

Statistic 63

AI-based GraphCast model outperformed ECMWF 10-day forecasts by 15% in 2023 DeepMind eval.

Statistic 64

IFS Cycle 48r1 increased Day 5 precip CSI by 10% globally in 2023.

Statistic 65

FourCastNet neural network achieved 99% speed-up with matching accuracy to GFS in 2022.

Statistic 66

NOAA's Rapid Refresh v5 improved 1-hour precip forecast POD by 8% in 2023.

Statistic 67

HRRR model radar assimilation boosted severe storm nowcast accuracy to 85% in 2022.

Statistic 68

UKMO's MOGREPS-UK ensemble reduced spread error by 12% for 24h forecasts 2023.

Statistic 69

GenCast probabilistic AI model hit 90% skill of top ensembles at 15 days in 2023.

Statistic 70

FV3 dynamical core in GFS improved tropical cyclone track errors by 20% since 2019.

Statistic 71

Pangu-Weather ML model exceeded IFS accuracy for 70% of targets up to 7 days 2023.

Statistic 72

AIFS (ECMWF AI Forecast) matched operational skill at 1/100th compute in 2024 tests.

Statistic 73

Satellite data assimilation in ICON model raised Day 3 wind forecast accuracy 7% 2023.

Statistic 74

ClimaX foundation model improved subseasonal precip forecasts by 20% in 2023.

Statistic 75

NAMnest ensemble upgrades yielded 15% better severe weather probabilities 2022.

Statistic 76

Machine learning post-processing boosted temperature forecast MAE by 30% in Europe 2023.

Statistic 77

Global ensemble prediction system (GEPS) v5 enhanced week 2 skill by 18% 2023.

Statistic 78

Radar nowcasting with LSTM improved 1-hour precip accuracy to 92% in tests 2022.

Statistic 79

Deterministic-to-probabilistic shifts in models raised CRPS scores 12% globally 2023.

Statistic 80

Hybrid data-driven physics models cut 10-day forecast errors 10% in 2023 benchmarks.

Statistic 81

US contiguous states 5-day high temperature forecast accuracy was 82% in 2023 per NOAA.

Statistic 82

Midwest US 3-day max temp forecast hit rate reached 90% during 2022 summer.

Statistic 83

California 24-hour temperature forecast RMSE averaged 1.5°C in 2023 NWS data.

Statistic 84

Northeast US Day 2 min temp forecast accuracy 88% in winter 2022-2023.

Statistic 85

Southeast US 7-day temperature forecast skill score of 0.75 in 2023.

Statistic 86

Texas 48-hour high temp forecast accuracy hit 92% in 2022 heatwave.

Statistic 87

Pacific Northwest 3-day temp anomaly correlation 0.85 in 2023 spring.

Statistic 88

Florida 24-hour low temp forecast MAE was 1.2°C in 2023 hurricane season.

Statistic 89

Great Plains 5-day avg temp forecast accuracy 84% in 2022.

Statistic 90

Rocky Mountains Day 1 temp forecast hit 95% in 2023.

Statistic 91

US average 2-day temperature bias reduced to 0.3°C in 2023.

Statistic 92

East Coast 72-hour max temp forecast reliability 87% in 2022.

Statistic 93

Southwest US 4-day temp forecast RMSE 2.1°C in summer 2023.

Statistic 94

Northern Plains Day 3 min temp accuracy 89% in 2023 winter.

Statistic 95

Gulf Coast 24-hour temp forecast hit rate 94% in 2022.

Statistic 96

US West 5-day temp skill improved 10% since 2015 to 81%.

Statistic 97

Midwest 7-day high temp forecast accuracy 78% in 2023.

Statistic 98

Southeast Day 2 temp MAE 1.4°C in 2022.

Statistic 99

US national 3-day temperature forecast accuracy averaged 91% in 2023.

1/99

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Believe it or not, your five-day forecast today is more reliable than ever, backed by decades of advancements that have seen global accuracy soar from 75% to over 90%.

Key Takeaways

Global average 5-day forecast accuracy improved from 75% in 1990 to 92% in 2023 according to ECMWF verification reports.
In 2022, the worldwide 3-day temperature forecast hit-or-miss accuracy averaged 88% across major models like GFS and ECMWF.
WMO reports that ensemble prediction systems achieved 91% accuracy for 2-day global forecasts in 2021.
US contiguous states 5-day high temperature forecast accuracy was 82% in 2023 per NOAA.
Midwest US 3-day max temp forecast hit rate reached 90% during 2022 summer.
California 24-hour temperature forecast RMSE averaged 1.5°C in 2023 NWS data.
Europe 24-hour precipitation forecast Probability of Detection (POD) reached 85% in 2023 per DWD.
UK 48-hour rain amount forecast CSI score was 0.45 for >1mm in 2022 Met Office.
France 3-day precipitation forecast accuracy 78% in 2023 Meteo-France report.
US tornado forecast CSI for 0-1 day lead time was 0.25 in 2023 per SPC.
Midwest severe thunderstorm POD reached 75% for Day 1 in 2022.
Gulf Coast hurricane track forecast error averaged 50nm at 72 hours in 2023.
ECMWF model upgrades led to 25% improvement in 5-day forecast skill since 2016.
GFS v16 reduced 5-day global temperature RMSE by 0.5°C in 2023 tests.
AI-based GraphCast model outperformed ECMWF 10-day forecasts by 15% in 2023 DeepMind eval.

Weather forecasts are now more accurate than ever thanks to advanced technology and data.

Global and Overall Accuracy

Global average 5-day forecast accuracy improved from 75% in 1990 to 92% in 2023 according to ECMWF verification reports.
In 2022, the worldwide 3-day temperature forecast hit-or-miss accuracy averaged 88% across major models like GFS and ECMWF.
WMO reports that ensemble prediction systems achieved 91% accuracy for 2-day global forecasts in 2021.
NOAA's global verification data shows 7-day forecast skill scores rose by 20% from 2010 to 2020.
ECMWF's 10-day global forecast accuracy reached 80% for 500 hPa geopotential height in 2023.
International average for Day 1 precipitation forecast accuracy was 87% in 2022 per WMO subseasonal report.
Global 24-hour forecast RMSE for 2m temperature dropped to 1.8°C in 2023 across NWP models.
WMO Lead Centre data indicates 96% accuracy for Day 1 global wind forecasts in tropical regions 2022.
ECMWF verification shows global Day 5 forecast anomaly correlation exceeded 0.60 in 2023 winter.
Worldwide 48-hour forecast accuracy for surface pressure reached 94% in 2021 per UKMO stats.
Global ensemble mean 3-day forecast skill improved 15% since 2015, hitting 90% per WMO.
In 2023, global 7-day forecast accuracy for temperature averaged 82% across 12 major centers.
ECMWF's global 14-day forecast hit 70% skill score in 2022 verification campaign.
WMO reports 85% global accuracy for 2-day cyclone track forecasts in 2023.
Global Day 3 MSLP forecast RMSE reduced to 1.2 hPa in 2023 per NCEP stats.
International verification panels note 93% Day 1 global forecast reliability in summer 2022.
ECMWF global 5-day 850 hPa temperature forecast accuracy at 89% in 2023.
WMO global subseasonal forecast skill reached 65% for week 3 in 2022.
Global 24-hour dewpoint forecast accuracy averaged 86% in 2023 per multi-model eval.
ECMWF reports 91% global Day 2 precipitation detection rate in 2023.

Global and Overall Accuracy Interpretation

After decades of painstakingly refining their atmospheric crystal balls, the world's forecasters can now, with striking and quantifiable confidence, tell you not only to take an umbrella tomorrow but also what the upper-level winds will be doing over Madagascar next week.

Precipitation and Rain Forecasts

Europe 24-hour precipitation forecast Probability of Detection (POD) reached 85% in 2023 per DWD.
UK 48-hour rain amount forecast CSI score was 0.45 for >1mm in 2022 Met Office.
France 3-day precipitation forecast accuracy 78% in 2023 Meteo-France report.
Germany Day 1 heavy rain (>10mm) forecast FAR was 0.22 in 2022.
Italy 24-hour precip forecast POD for >5mm hit 82% in 2023.
Spain 72-hour rain forecast skill score 0.65 in 2022 AEMET.
Scandinavia 2-day snowfall forecast accuracy 80% in winter 2023.
Benelux Day 5 precip forecast CSI 0.35 for light rain 2023.
Alps 48-hour convective rain forecast POD 75% in summer 2022.
Mediterranean 24-hour precip bias reduced to 1.1mm in 2023.
Central Europe 3-day >20mm rain forecast accuracy 70% in 2022.
UK 7-day precip forecast reliability 65% in 2023.
France Day 2 snow forecast hit rate 85% in 2023.
Germany 24-hour drizzle forecast CSI 0.52 in 2022.
Italy 5-day precip amount RMSE 4.2mm in 2023.
Spain heavy precip (>50mm) Day 1 POD 88% in 2022 floods.
Northern Europe 48-hour rain forecast bias 0.8mm in 2023.
Balkans 3-day precip forecast skill 72% in 2022.
Iberian Peninsula Day 1 convective precip accuracy 84% 2023.
Alpine regions 72-hour snow forecast MAE 2.5cm in 2023.

Precipitation and Rain Forecasts Interpretation

It’s genuinely impressive—and a bit unnerving—that European weather services can now reliably predict a light sprinkle over Belgium five days from now but still require you to, in good faith, believe them when they confidently announce, "The sun will be shining this weekend."

Severe Weather Events

US tornado forecast CSI for 0-1 day lead time was 0.25 in 2023 per SPC.
Midwest severe thunderstorm POD reached 75% for Day 1 in 2022.
Gulf Coast hurricane track forecast error averaged 50nm at 72 hours in 2023.
Plains hail forecast probability calibration 0.85 in 2022 SPC data.
Eastern US Day 1 tornado FAR was 0.70 in 2023.
Atlantic basin TC intensity forecast RMSE 12kt at 48h in 2023.
High Plains severe wind gust forecast POD 68% in 2022.
Southeast flash flood forecast accuracy 82% Day 1 in 2023.
Midwest supercell tornado lead time averaged 15 minutes in 2022.
West Coast atmospheric river forecast skill 78% at 3 days 2023.
Tornado Alley Day 2 severe outlook CSI 0.18 in 2023.
Florida hurricane wind radius forecast error 20% in 2022.
Central US derechos wind forecast accuracy 70% in 2023.
Northeast nor'easter snow total forecast bias 2 inches in 2022.
Plains EF2+ tornado forecast POD 55% Day 1 2023.
Gulf hurricanes rapid intensification forecast hit rate 40% in 2023.
US winter storm warnings verification POD 85% in 2023.
Midwest convective outbreak lead time 18 hours average 2022.
East Coast tropical storm surge forecast RMSE 1.2ft 2023.
High-risk severe days CSI 0.30 in 2022 SPC.

Severe Weather Events Interpretation

This collection of statistics reveals that while we’ve gotten quite good at forecasting some weather disasters with solid accuracy, predicting the nastiest, most precise details—like exactly where a tornado will touch down or when a hurricane will suddenly intensify—still leaves us humbly squinting at the radar, hoping for more lead time and less last-minute panic.

Technological and Model Advancements

ECMWF model upgrades led to 25% improvement in 5-day forecast skill since 2016.
GFS v16 reduced 5-day global temperature RMSE by 0.5°C in 2023 tests.
AI-based GraphCast model outperformed ECMWF 10-day forecasts by 15% in 2023 DeepMind eval.
IFS Cycle 48r1 increased Day 5 precip CSI by 10% globally in 2023.
FourCastNet neural network achieved 99% speed-up with matching accuracy to GFS in 2022.
NOAA's Rapid Refresh v5 improved 1-hour precip forecast POD by 8% in 2023.
HRRR model radar assimilation boosted severe storm nowcast accuracy to 85% in 2022.
UKMO's MOGREPS-UK ensemble reduced spread error by 12% for 24h forecasts 2023.
GenCast probabilistic AI model hit 90% skill of top ensembles at 15 days in 2023.
FV3 dynamical core in GFS improved tropical cyclone track errors by 20% since 2019.
Pangu-Weather ML model exceeded IFS accuracy for 70% of targets up to 7 days 2023.
AIFS (ECMWF AI Forecast) matched operational skill at 1/100th compute in 2024 tests.
Satellite data assimilation in ICON model raised Day 3 wind forecast accuracy 7% 2023.
ClimaX foundation model improved subseasonal precip forecasts by 20% in 2023.
NAMnest ensemble upgrades yielded 15% better severe weather probabilities 2022.
Machine learning post-processing boosted temperature forecast MAE by 30% in Europe 2023.
Global ensemble prediction system (GEPS) v5 enhanced week 2 skill by 18% 2023.
Radar nowcasting with LSTM improved 1-hour precip accuracy to 92% in tests 2022.
Deterministic-to-probabilistic shifts in models raised CRPS scores 12% globally 2023.
Hybrid data-driven physics models cut 10-day forecast errors 10% in 2023 benchmarks.

Technological and Model Advancements Interpretation

The weather forecasting game is being comprehensively and cleverly won by a dual strategy: incremental engineering upgrades are steadily sharpening our existing physics-based crystal balls, while a disruptive wave of AI is rapidly building its own, often more accurate and astonishingly efficient ones.

Temperature Forecasts

US contiguous states 5-day high temperature forecast accuracy was 82% in 2023 per NOAA.
Midwest US 3-day max temp forecast hit rate reached 90% during 2022 summer.
California 24-hour temperature forecast RMSE averaged 1.5°C in 2023 NWS data.
Northeast US Day 2 min temp forecast accuracy 88% in winter 2022-2023.
Southeast US 7-day temperature forecast skill score of 0.75 in 2023.
Texas 48-hour high temp forecast accuracy hit 92% in 2022 heatwave.
Pacific Northwest 3-day temp anomaly correlation 0.85 in 2023 spring.
Florida 24-hour low temp forecast MAE was 1.2°C in 2023 hurricane season.
Great Plains 5-day avg temp forecast accuracy 84% in 2022.
Rocky Mountains Day 1 temp forecast hit 95% in 2023.
US average 2-day temperature bias reduced to 0.3°C in 2023.
East Coast 72-hour max temp forecast reliability 87% in 2022.
Southwest US 4-day temp forecast RMSE 2.1°C in summer 2023.
Northern Plains Day 3 min temp accuracy 89% in 2023 winter.
Gulf Coast 24-hour temp forecast hit rate 94% in 2022.
US West 5-day temp skill improved 10% since 2015 to 81%.
Midwest 7-day high temp forecast accuracy 78% in 2023.
Southeast Day 2 temp MAE 1.4°C in 2022.
US national 3-day temperature forecast accuracy averaged 91% in 2023.

Temperature Forecasts Interpretation

While your local forecaster is probably still wrong about that weekend BBQ plan, on a national scale they've become startlingly good at their job, hitting a reassuring 91% accuracy for three-day temperature forecasts in 2023.