Imagine you're buying a car, and hidden within the price tag is a complex web of tariffs that has quietly added hundreds, sometimes thousands, of dollars to the cost of nearly every new vehicle sold in America since 2018.
Key Takeaways
- In 2018, the US imposed a 25% tariff on imported steel, increasing US steel prices by 25-30% which raised average vehicle production costs by $200-$300 per vehicle for US automakers
- The Section 232 tariffs on steel and aluminum effective March 2018 covered 2.8% of US imports initially, but expanded to impact auto supply chains representing $45 billion in annual steel purchases by the auto sector
- USMCA replaced NAFTA with 2.5% tariff on autos but required 75% North American content up from 62.5% to qualify for tariff-free trade, affecting 16 million vehicles traded annually
- US auto imports from Mexico surged 15% to 2.8 million units in 2023 despite tariff threats
- Steel imports for autos fell 12% post-2018 tariffs from 25 million tons to 22 million tons annually
- Chinese auto parts imports dropped 27% from $14.7 billion in 2017 to $10.7 billion in 2019 due to Section 301 tariffs
- US vehicle production dropped 1.3% to 10.6 million units in 2019 due to tariff-induced supply disruptions
- Steel tariffs added 1-2% to US vehicle MSRP, slowing production by 100,000 units annually 2018-2020
- GM idled plants for 1.7 million vehicles equivalent in 2019 partly due to $1 billion steel tariff costs
- US auto manufacturing employment fell by 20,000 jobs in 2019, 40% attributed to tariff costs per BLS analysis
- Steel and aluminum tariffs led to net loss of 75,000 manufacturing jobs economy-wide, 15,000 in autos
- Ford laid off 2,800 salaried workers in 2018 citing $1 billion tariff hit on steel/aluminum
- New car sales fell 2% to 17 million units in 2019 as tariffs raised prices by $1,000 average
- Pickup trucks gained 2% market share to 47% post-tariffs as sedans lost 5% share due to cost sensitivity
- Import share of US sales stable at 25% but Chinese brands <1% due to tariffs
Recent US auto tariffs raised costs and disrupted supply chains, benefiting few but burdening many.
Economic Costs and Benefits
- Consumer costs rose $3.1 billion annually from steel tariffs passed to auto buyers
- Tariffs reduced US GDP by 0.2% or $46 billion in 2019, autos contributing 10% of loss
- Auto industry paid $10.5 billion extra in steel 2018-2023 due to 30% price hike from tariffs
- Net welfare loss $7.8 billion from steel tariffs, autos bore 25% via higher costs
- Consumers faced $1,000-2,000 higher prices per vehicle, totaling $20 billion annual cost
- Domestic steel output up $2.5 billion benefiting producers but costing autos $5 billion net loss
- Retaliatory tariffs cost US exporters $27 billion including $2 billion autos in 2019
- Inflation rose 0.4% from tariffs, autos contributing 0.1% via price pass-through
- US households lost $419/year average from tariff costs, $80 auto-related
- Protected steel jobs cost $900,000 per job saved vs downstream auto job value
- EV tariffs saved 50,000 US jobs per Alliance for American Manufacturing estimate
- Total tariff revenue $80 billion 2018-2023 but deadweight loss $120 billion economy-wide
- Auto repair costs up 5% from tariff-hit parts, adding $4 billion consumer burden
- GDP multiplier effect: each $1 steel protection cost autos $2.5 in output loss
- Corporate profits in autos down 8% in 2019, $15 billion loss linked to tariffs
- Benefits to US steel firms $1.4 billion profits up 50% post-tariffs
- Long-run: tariffs diverted $10 billion Chinese EV investment to US/ allies
- Net import reduction saved $5 billion forex but raised domestic prices 15%
- Tariffs cost consumers $62B cumulative 2018-2024 autos 20% share
- Protected infant industries EV gained $15B investment vs import block cost
- Supply chain resilience up 10% reshoring but costs $10B higher autos
- CPI auto index up 25% 2018-2023 vs 15% non-tariff goods
- Farm equipment indirect cost $1B from steel tariffs passed from autos
- Net US terms of trade worsened 1% GDP from tariff escalation autos key
- State revenues from sales tax up $500M tariff price pass-through autos
Economic Costs and Benefits Interpretation
The data paints a starkly ironic picture: America's steel tariffs essentially functioned as a highly inefficient, multi-billion dollar tax on its own car buyers and industry, all to prop up a domestic steel sector whose gains were dwarfed by the far greater losses inflicted downstream.
Employment Effects
- US auto manufacturing employment fell by 20,000 jobs in 2019, 40% attributed to tariff costs per BLS analysis
- Steel and aluminum tariffs led to net loss of 75,000 manufacturing jobs economy-wide, 15,000 in autos
- Ford laid off 2,800 salaried workers in 2018 citing $1 billion tariff hit on steel/aluminum
- GM furloughed 6,000 workers and cut 14,000 jobs in 2019 partly due to $300 million tariff costs
- US steel jobs gained 1,400 but downstream auto jobs lost 16,000 per Trade Partnership study
- Auto parts sector lost 12,000 jobs in Midwest states post-tariffs 2018-2020
- Wages in auto manufacturing stagnated at $28/hour in 2019 despite 3% inflation due to tariff margins squeeze
- 25,000 US jobs at risk from retaliatory tariffs on auto exports per Auto Alliance
- Domestic steel employment up 2% to 84,000 but auto employment down 1.5% to 950,000
- Supplier jobs cut by 10,000 as OEMs passed on tariff costs reducing subcontracting
- EV sector added 10,000 jobs post-China tariffs via IRA incentives offsetting legacy auto losses
- Midwest auto states like MI/OH lost 8,000 manufacturing jobs linked to tariffs 2018-2019
- Hourly earnings in fabricated metal products (auto inputs) rose 4% but employment flat at 1.4M
- FCA announced 1,700 hourly job cuts in 2019 blaming steel tariffs and market shifts
- Net US manufacturing job loss of 1.4% in tariff-exposed sectors including autos
- Aluminum smelters added 1,000 jobs but auto fabricators cut 5,000 in response
- Total auto-related employment 1.1 million in 2023, down 5% from 2018 peak due to tariffs/covid
- Steel tariffs saved 8,000 steel jobs but cost 40,000 downstream including 10,000 autos
- Salaried engineering jobs cut 15% at suppliers due to tariff R&D squeeze $2B less spend
- Union auto jobs stable at 150,000 but temp agency jobs down 25,000 post-tariffs
- Hourly production wages rose 2.5% to $27.50 but real wages flat tariff inflation
- 3,000 jobs added in battery plants 2022-2024 from China tariff incentives
- Supplier employment 4.8M total down 2% 2018-2020 tariff ripple effect
- Diversity: women in auto jobs 25% unaffected but new hires down 10% tariffs
- Export-dependent plants cut 5,000 jobs from retaliation e.g. Harley but autos similar
- Labor productivity in autos down 1.8% 2019 higher costs less investment
- Retirement eligible workers 30% workforce, tariffs accelerated 5,000 exits early
- Gig economy drivers up 20% as auto sales slowed tariff prices, indirect effect
- Steelworker wages up 10% to $35/hr post-tariffs vs auto average $28 stagnation
- Total comp including benefits $70k auto worker 2023 down 3% real from 2018 tariffs
- Dealer employment 1.2M stable but sales staff turnover up 15% slow sales
Employment Effects Interpretation
The numbers tell a stark tale of self-inflicted economics: tariffs, in a costly act of protectionist theater, managed to save a modest number of steel and aluminum jobs only to sacrifice a far greater number of higher-value auto industry jobs, ultimately delivering a net loss to American manufacturing and worker wages.
Import/Export Volumes
- US auto imports from Mexico surged 15% to 2.8 million units in 2023 despite tariff threats
- Steel imports for autos fell 12% post-2018 tariffs from 25 million tons to 22 million tons annually
- Chinese auto parts imports dropped 27% from $14.7 billion in 2017 to $10.7 billion in 2019 due to Section 301 tariffs
- US auto exports to China declined 48% from 266,000 units in 2018 to 138,000 in 2019 amid tariff war
- Aluminum imports decreased 15% to 4.5 million tons in 2019, reducing auto sector availability by 500,000 tons
- Mexico-US auto trade totaled $240 billion in 2023, with 80% parts crossing border multiple times tariff-free under USMCA
- Japan auto exports to US stable at 1.4 million units in 2023 despite past tariff threats
- Canada exported 1.7 million vehicles to US in 2023, 90% tariff-free under USMCA rules
- EU auto imports to US at 1.2 million units in 2023, facing 2.5-10% tariffs on non-quota luxury brands
- Chinese EV imports to US were negligible at under 2,000 units in 2023 pre-100% tariff hike
- US auto parts exports reached $40 billion in 2023, up 5% despite tariffs on key markets
- Post-tariff, US steel imports from Canada fell 20% affecting integrated auto supply chains
- Auto exports from US to Mexico hit record 350,000 units in 2023 under USMCA
- Korea auto imports stable at 800,000 units annually post-KORUS FTA 2.5% tariff cap
- Total US light vehicle imports 8.1 million units in 2023, 35% from Mexico
- Auto imports from China fell 89% post-25% tariffs, from $1.8B to $200M by 2020
- US exports of autos to EU dropped 10% to 250,000 units in 2019 due to retaliation
- Light truck imports capped by chicken tax at <200,000 units annually mostly Canada
- US parts imports $150B in 2023, 15% from Mexico, tariff-free under USMCA 75% rule
- Steel imports rebounded 20% in 2021 post-tariff adjustments to 30M tons for autos
- Auto exports to Canada 1.4M units 2023, down 5% from tariff retaliation scars
- German auto imports 450,000 units 2023 facing 2.5% tariff +10% on some trucks
- Battery imports from China $5B pre-tariffs now shifted to Korea/Japan $12B
- US vehicle exports totaled 2.5M units 2023, 20% to Mexico tariff-free
- Fiat Chrysler imports from Italy/Serbia faced threats but stabilized at 100,000 units
Import/Export Volumes Interpretation
While U.S. tariffs succeeded in reshaping some supply chains away from China and protecting certain materials, they largely reshuffled the deck rather than shrinking the table, as a resilient North American auto ecosystem boomed under USMCA rules and consumers absorbed the costs of more fragmented, retaliatory global trade.
Production Impacts
- US vehicle production dropped 1.3% to 10.6 million units in 2019 due to tariff-induced supply disruptions
- Steel tariffs added 1-2% to US vehicle MSRP, slowing production by 100,000 units annually 2018-2020
- GM idled plants for 1.7 million vehicles equivalent in 2019 partly due to $1 billion steel tariff costs
- Ford reported 10% rise in steel costs post-tariffs, delaying F-150 production by 2 months
- US auto capacity utilization fell to 78% in 2019 from 82% pre-tariffs due to input cost hikes
- Aluminum tariffs increased costs by $500 million for beverage cans but $300 million for autos in 2019
- Post-2018 tariffs, US light truck production rose 5% as firms shifted from tariff-hit sedans
- Stellantis (FCA) cut 1,500 jobs and idled Jefferson North plant citing $200 million tariff impact
- EV battery production ramped up domestically post-China tariffs, adding 20 GWh capacity by 2023
- Tariffs led to 15% increase in domestic steel mill investments totaling $4.2 billion in auto sector
- Auto parts manufacturing output declined 2.4% in 2019 due to tariff retaliation on exports
- US engine production fell 8% to 11 million units in 2019 amid aluminum shortages
- Transmission production shifted 10% to Mexico pre-USMCA to avoid tariffs, impacting US output
- Domestic content in US vehicles rose to 55% post-tariffs from 50% encouraging reshoring
- Steel using industries like autos saw 0.5% productivity drop due to higher input costs 2018-2019
- US auto assembly plants operated at 75% capacity in Q1 2019 down from 85% due to parts delays
- Post-tariff, pickup truck production increased 12% to 2.5 million units as tariff exemptions favored them
- Steel tariffs caused 45-day stockpiling leading to temporary production halts across 5 plants
- US production capacity 13M vehicles but output 10M in 2023 partly tariff legacy costs
- Tariffs prompted $1B investment in US aluminum rolling for autos by 2020
- Output per worker in autos fell 3% 2019 due to input shortages post-tariffs
- Toyota shifted 200,000 Corolla production to US/Mexico to avoid potential tariffs
- Steel tariffs caused $450/vehicle cost rise, cutting profit margins 2 points
- US light vehicle output down 50,000 units Q2 2018 from steel stockpiling halt
- Domestic steel content in vehicles up 5% to 60% by 2022 post-tariffs
- EV production tripled to 300,000 units 2023 aided by tariff barriers to imports
- Supplier bankruptcies up 20% 2019 as tariffs squeezed small firms $500M revenue loss
- Foundry output for auto castings down 4% 2019 from aluminum tariff disruptions
- Reshoring added 50,000 tons steel slab capacity for auto plates by 2021
- Production shifts: sedans down 20% output to 1.5M favoring tariff-light trucks
- Logistics costs up 15% for steel hauling post-tariffs delaying assembly lines
- Auto OEM capex up 10% to $50B 2019 for domestic sourcing post-tariffs
- Midwest auto production index fell 5.2% 2019 tariff peak per FRB
Production Impacts Interpretation
The tariffs were like a misguided mechanic who, while trying to make the engine more American, ended up throwing a wrench into the entire assembly line, causing costly stutters, spurring some awkward retooling, and proving that protectionism is a parts-and-labor charge that everyone pays for.
Sales and Market Share
- New car sales fell 2% to 17 million units in 2019 as tariffs raised prices by $1,000 average
- Pickup trucks gained 2% market share to 47% post-tariffs as sedans lost 5% share due to cost sensitivity
- Import share of US sales stable at 25% but Chinese brands <1% due to tariffs
- Average transaction price rose $1,200 to $37,000 in 2019, 30% tariff-related per JD Power
- Luxury import brands like BMW saw 3% sales drop in 2019 amid EU tariff threats
- Domestic OEM market share rose to 52% in 2023 from 48% pre-tariffs via protection
- EV sales grew 40% to 1.2 million in 2023 boosted by tariffs blocking cheap Chinese imports
- Used car sales up 5% as new car prices rose 8% post-tariffs 2018-2019
- Honda/Acura imports lost 4% share as tariffs hit non-USMCA production
- Tesla market share doubled to 4% aided by no direct tariff competition from China
- Overall light vehicle sales 15.5 million in 2023, imports 8% of total down from 10% pre-tariffs
- SUV/CUV sales share 65% in 2019 up from 60% as tariffs favored domestic trucks
- Dealer inventories dropped 15% in 2019 due to production halts from tariffs, slowing sales
- Import sedans sales fell 12% to 1.8 million units in 2019 price-sensitive segment
- Domestic full-size trucks captured 85% market share post-chicken tax 25% import tariff
- Chinese vehicles effectively 0% market share in US due to cumulative 100%+ tariffs by 2024
- US new vehicle affordability index fell 10 points in 2019 to 85% due to tariff price hikes
- Imports captured 28% sales share 2023 vs 25% pre-tariffs domestics gained trucks
- Japanese brands 40% sales 2023 down 2pts tariff production shifts to US
- Average new car price $48,000 2023 up 20% since 2018 partly $2k tariffs cumulative
- Fleet sales down 10% 2019 as tariffs hit commercial vans pricing
- Lease penetration fell to 25% from 30% tariff price sensitivity consumers
- Hyundai/Kia gained 1pt share to 10% US-made avoiding full tariffs
- Incentives spending up $3k/vehicle 2019 to offset tariff hikes
- CPO sales up 8% as new tariffs deterred budget buyers
- Regional: South auto sales up 5% domestics vs Midwest flat tariff costs
- Online sales share doubled to 10% 2023 price transparency tariff scrutiny
- Heavy truck sales 300k units 2023 chicken tax protects 95% domestic share
- Millennial buyers down 15% new cars tariff affordability crisis shift used
- Subscription models grew 300% as ownership deterred by prices post-tariffs
Sales and Market Share Interpretation
The tariffs, acting like a bouncer at a car lot, elegantly reshuffled the market by pricing many out of new sedans and into used cars or trucks, while quietly writing a love letter to domestic automakers and a breakup note to affordable new wheels.
Tariff Rates and Policies
- In 2018, the US imposed a 25% tariff on imported steel, increasing US steel prices by 25-30% which raised average vehicle production costs by $200-$300 per vehicle for US automakers
- The Section 232 tariffs on steel and aluminum effective March 2018 covered 2.8% of US imports initially, but expanded to impact auto supply chains representing $45 billion in annual steel purchases by the auto sector
- USMCA replaced NAFTA with 2.5% tariff on autos but required 75% North American content up from 62.5% to qualify for tariff-free trade, affecting 16 million vehicles traded annually
- In May 2024, Biden administration raised tariffs on Chinese EVs from 25% to 100%, impacting $1.5 billion in potential imports
- Proposed 200% tariff by Trump on Mexican-made autos would affect 2.5 million vehicles exported from Mexico to US annually
- 10% universal tariff proposed would add $2,700 to average new car price according to Anderson Economic Group analysis
- Section 301 tariffs on China since 2018 imposed 25% on $300 billion goods including auto parts worth $15 billion annually
- Aluminum tariffs of 10% in 2018 led to 2.5 cent per pound price increase, adding $78 million to Ford's annual costs
- Tariff exclusions for auto sector granted for 50,000 steel and aluminum products but only 30% approved by 2020
- EU retaliatory tariffs on US autos reached 25% on $3.3 billion goods including bourbon and motorcycles in response to steel tariffs
- Canada imposed 25% tariffs on $12.6 billion US goods including autos in retaliation, affecting 10% of US auto exports to Canada
- Mexico's retaliatory tariffs on US pork and cheese indirectly impacted auto supply chains via ag-auto trade linkages valued at $5 billion
- Trump 2019 threat of 25% auto tariffs under Section 232 on EU/Japan autos worth $60 billion averted after negotiations
- Biden retained 25% China tariffs on $370 billion goods including lithium batteries critical for EVs at $10 billion value
- 2.5% MFN tariff on passenger vehicles remains baseline, applied to $160 billion imports in 2023
- In 2018, Section 232 steel tariffs covered imports valued at $48 billion, 4% of which directly served the auto industry supply chain
- Aluminum tariffs under Section 232 applied 10% ad valorem to $17 billion imports, impacting 20% of auto aluminum use
- Section 301 List 3 tariffs at 25% on $200 billion Chinese goods included $20 billion auto parts starting Sept 2018
- Proposed 25% tariff on all autos/parts under Section 232 2019 would hit $350 billion trade volume
- Chicken tax of 25% on light trucks since 1964 blocks EU/Asia imports, protecting 2M US trucks sales
- USITC recommended against auto tariffs in 2019 citing $80B cost vs $20B benefit
- Tariffs on steel from Turkey doubled to 50% in 2018 affecting $1B auto inputs
- Argentina/Brazil quota deal replaced 25% steel tariffs, stabilizing 5M tons auto steel imports
- South Korea steel quota 70% of 2015 levels = 2.7M tons, shielding auto from price spikes
Tariff Rates and Policies Interpretation
In the grand theater of automotive policy, America has welded together a labyrinth of tariffs—each designed as a strategic shield, yet collectively forging a cage of rising costs and retaliatory skirmishes that forces its own automakers to pay the bill, one expensive bolt at a time.
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