Key Takeaways
- IPCC AR6 estimates equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) at 3°C (2.5-4°C likely range, 66% prob).
- Global temperature rise uncertainty: 1.5°C target breached by 202x with 50% prob (CMIP6).
- Sea level rise by 2100: 0.28-1.01m (median 0.6m, RCP4.5).
- The US Economic Policy Uncertainty (EPU) Index averaged 150.2 points in 2023, indicating elevated uncertainty compared to the historical average of 100.
- Global EPU Index reached a peak of 250.4 in March 2020 due to COVID-19, 2.5 times the long-term average.
- In the Eurozone, EPU Index stood at 178.6 in Q4 2023, driven by geopolitical tensions.
- VIX futures curve inverted 15% of time in 2023, signaling uncertainty.
- Implied volatility for S&P 500 options averaged 22% in 2023.
- MOVE Index (bond volatility) peaked at 160 in March 2020.
- Diagnostic uncertainty in cancer diagnosis: 10-20% error rate.
- Treatment efficacy uncertainty: 30% of RCTs show <50% confidence in effect size.
- COVID-19 case fatality rate uncertainty: 0.5-1.5% (early 2020 est).
- Psychometric test-retest reliability: r=0.85 (SEm=4.7 pts).
- Intolerance of Uncertainty Scale (IUS-12) mean: 28 (SD=10).
- Decision under uncertainty: Prospect theory loss aversion λ=2.25.
Uncertainty remains high across climate and markets, from ECS and sea level to volatility and EPU.
Related reading
Climate Uncertainty
Climate Uncertainty Interpretation
Economic Uncertainty
Economic Uncertainty Interpretation
Financial Market Uncertainty
Financial Market Uncertainty Interpretation
Health Uncertainty
Health Uncertainty Interpretation
Psychological Uncertainty
Psychological Uncertainty Interpretation
Scientific Measurement Uncertainty
Scientific Measurement Uncertainty Interpretation
How We Rate Confidence
Every statistic is queried across four AI models (ChatGPT, Claude, Gemini, Perplexity). The confidence rating reflects how many models return a consistent figure for that data point. Label assignment per row uses a deterministic weighted mix targeting approximately 70% Verified, 15% Directional, and 15% Single source.
Only one AI model returns this statistic from its training data. The figure comes from a single primary source and has not been corroborated by independent systems. Use with caution; cross-reference before citing.
AI consensus: 1 of 4 models agree
Multiple AI models cite this figure or figures in the same direction, but with minor variance. The trend and magnitude are reliable; the precise decimal may differ by source. Suitable for directional analysis.
AI consensus: 2–3 of 4 models broadly agree
All AI models independently return the same statistic, unprompted. This level of cross-model agreement indicates the figure is robustly established in published literature and suitable for citation.
AI consensus: 4 of 4 models fully agree
Cite This Report
This report is designed to be cited. We maintain stable URLs and versioned verification dates. Copy the format appropriate for your publication below.
Sophie Moreland. (2026, February 27). Uncertainty Statistics. Gitnux. https://gitnux.org/uncertainty-statistics
Sophie Moreland. "Uncertainty Statistics." Gitnux, 27 Feb 2026, https://gitnux.org/uncertainty-statistics.
Sophie Moreland. 2026. "Uncertainty Statistics." Gitnux. https://gitnux.org/uncertainty-statistics.
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