While pocket aces only grace your hole cards once every 221 hands, a deep dive into the math reveals how mastering the true odds of every flop, turn, and river can transform you from a hopeful player into a calculating winner.
Key Takeaways
- In Texas Hold'em, the probability of being dealt pocket aces (AA) preflop is exactly 1 in 221 hands, or 0.4527%
- Pocket kings (KK) preflop occurs 1 in 82.4 hands, approximately 1.21% of starting hands
- Any pocket pair preflop probability is 1 in 17.07, or 5.88%
- Continuation bet (c-bet) frequency on flop from in-position: 55-65%
- Hit a set with pocket pair on flop: 11.8% (1 in 8.5)
- Flop a flush draw with suited hand: 10.9%
- Turn completion of flush draw: 19.6% (9 outs)
- Turn pairs board probability: 23.5% if unpaired flop
- Double barrel c-bet success rate: 45-55%
- River completion for flush draw: 35% from flop (19.1% turn+river)
- Value bet frequency on river: 40-50% IP
- River bluff frequency GTO: 20-30% on polarized ranges
- WSOP Main Event average buy-in: $10,000, with 8,663 entrants in 2023
- Average WSOP ME field size: 6,500+ players since 2010
- Win rate for pros in MTTs: 1-2 buy-ins per 100 tournaments
This blog post explains Texas Holdem strategy using detailed poker statistics and probabilities.
Flop Statistics
- Continuation bet (c-bet) frequency on flop from in-position: 55-65%
- Hit a set with pocket pair on flop: 11.8% (1 in 8.5)
- Flop a flush draw with suited hand: 10.9%
- Open-ended straight draw on flop: 31.5% for suited connectors
- Top pair top kicker (TPTK) strength on paired board: 65% equity vs range
- Dry board c-bet success rate: 70%
- Flop check-raise frequency OOP: 8-12%
- Average pot size post-flop: 2.5x preflop pot
- Fold to flop c-bet: 50-60% in position
- Hit any pair or better on flop: 32%
- Gutshot straight draw frequency: 16.5% with connectors
- Rainbow flop probability: 49.1%
- Monotone flop: 4.4%
- Paired flop: 17.4%
- Equity of flush draw vs top pair: 35-40%
- Overbet flop frequency in GTO: 5-10% on wet boards
- Bluff c-bet on missed flop: 40% frequency IP
- Average flop bet size: 33-50% pot
- Trips with one pair preflop: 1.35%
- Two pair on flop with unpaired preflop: 2%
- Flop aggression factor average: 2.5-3.0
- Check-fold frequency OOP dry board: 70%
- Pot control bet size on flop: 25% pot
- Double barrel frequency to turn: 40% after flop c-bet
- Flop raise frequency vs c-bet: 12-15%
- Equity loss from folding top pair weak kicker: 20-25%
Flop Statistics Interpretation
The sobering math of Texas Hold'em reveals that even when you’re confidently c-betting over half the flops, the deck is subtly reminding you that your strong top pair is often just a temporary tenant in a pot likely to be raided by a disguised draw or a well-timed bluff.
Preflop Probabilities
- In Texas Hold'em, the probability of being dealt pocket aces (AA) preflop is exactly 1 in 221 hands, or 0.4527%
- Pocket kings (KK) preflop occurs 1 in 82.4 hands, approximately 1.21% of starting hands
- Any pocket pair preflop probability is 1 in 17.07, or 5.88%
- Suited aces (Axs) appear 1 in 112.2 hands, 0.89%
- Offsuit broadway hands like AKo occur 1 in 81.95, 1.22%
- Suited connectors (e.g., 87s) probability is 3.99% or 1 in 25
- Any ace preflop is 22.20% or 1 in 4.5 hands
- King-high non-pair hands: 15.69%
- Playable hands from late position: 25-30% of hands
- VPIP for tight-aggressive players: 15-20% preflop
- Average preflop raise size in cash games: 3x BB
- Fold to 3-bet preflop frequency: 60-70% from most positions
- 3-bet frequency for pros: 8-12% overall
- Cold 4-bet percentage in tournaments: 0.5-1%
- Equity of AA vs random hand preflop: 85.2%
- KK equity vs top 10% range: 78.5%
- Suited connectors equity vs top 20%: 35-40%
- Preflop all-in equity for 22+ vs AKo: 52.1%
- Limp frequency in online games: under 5%
- Open-raise first in (RFI) from UTG: 12-15%
- Steal frequency from cutoff: 25-30%
- Fold to steal from blinds: 40% BB, 60% SB
- Average hands per hour at 6-max: 80-100
- Top 1% hands preflop: AA, KK, QQ, AKs
- Equity of AQo vs JJ: 42.3%
- Preflop calling range vs minraise: 20-25%
- 5-bet shove frequency deep stack: <0.2%
- Pocket pairs below 77 equity vs overcards: 55-60%
- Broadway suited equity preflop: 60%+ vs undercards
- Trash hands (bottom 50%) equity: <30% vs any pair
Preflop Probabilities Interpretation
The sobering math of poker whispers a witty truth: you’ll stare down far more trash hands than treasures, which is why discipline and a tight-aggressive strategy are simply your smartest plays against the brutal odds.
River Statistics
- River completion for flush draw: 35% from flop (19.1% turn+river)
- Value bet frequency on river: 40-50% IP
- River bluff frequency GTO: 20-30% on polarized ranges
- Showdown equity average: 52% for aggressor
- Fold to river bet: 60-70% after turn call
- River overbet success: 55% with nut advantage
- Pot odds for hero call river: 3:1 typical
- Blocker bluff equity boost: 25% with Ah Kd on A-high river
- Average river bet size: 75-100% pot
- Check-raise river frequency: 5-8%
- Nuts shown at showdown: 25% of value bets
- River min-bet frequency: 10% thin value
- Equity of second pair vs river bluff: 45%
- Auto-fold hands at river: bottom 20% range
- River pot growth: 1.5x from turn average
- Triple barrel bluff success: 35%
- Hero call accuracy for regs: 55%
- River paired board bet frequency: 60%
- Improve straight draw on river: 17.4% from flop OESD
- Showdown value %: 70% of checked rivers
- River jam frequency all-in: 15% short stacks
River Statistics Interpretation
As river decisions separate the hopeful from the bankrupt, remember your flush draw only got there a third of the time, but if you bet big when you do make it, over half the field will fold, though a savvy regular will hero call you correctly more often than not, proving that in poker, as in life, it’s better to be lucky than good, but you had better be good if you want to get lucky.
Tournament Stats
- WSOP Main Event average buy-in: $10,000, with 8,663 entrants in 2023
- Average WSOP ME field size: 6,500+ players since 2010
- Win rate for pros in MTTs: 1-2 buy-ins per 100 tournaments
- Bubble survival rate in $100 MTT: 15%
- Average ROI for breakeven player: 0%, top 10% at 30%+
- ICM pressure increases fold equity by 25% near bubble
- Final table bubble push-fold switch: 80% of pros at 15BB
- Average stack at final table: 40-60BB in deep ME
- Heads-up win rate favorite: 65% with 3:1 chip lead
- Bounty MTT average bounties collected: 2-3 per tourney
- Progressive KO payout structure: 50% to bounty pool
- Online MTT hands per hour: 60-70 at 9-handed
- Field size effect on variance: 10x larger field = 3x variance
- Cash rate for $50 MTTs: 15-20%
- Deep run frequency top players: 1 in 50 tourneys to FT
- Antes impact on open ranges: widen by 5-10%
- Average payout jump FT bubble: 2x min cash
- Chip EV vs ICM adjustment: 10-15% shove range tighter
- Women in WSOP ME: 4-5% of field annually
- Online vs live winrate: online 1.5x higher volume-adjusted
- Mystery Bounty variance: 40% higher than standard MTT
- WSOP bracelets awarded yearly: 90-100
Tournament Stats Interpretation
While it's true that a pro might only win a tournament or two out of every hundred attempts, the $10,000 WSOP Main Event consistently draws thousands of hopefuls because that elusive final table, with its life-changing payout jumps and immense pressure, represents a lottery ticket where skill can actually bend the overwhelming odds in your favor.
Turn Statistics
- Turn completion of flush draw: 19.6% (9 outs)
- Turn pairs board probability: 23.5% if unpaired flop
- Double barrel c-bet success rate: 45-55%
- Turn check-raise frequency: 10-15% OOP
- Equity of OESD on turn vs overpair: 32%
- Turn bet sizing average: 50-75% pot
- Fold to turn bet after calling flop: 35-45%
- Turn overbet frequency: 15% on scary boards
- Fill gutshot on turn: 8.5% (4 outs)
- Turn aggression increases by 20% post-flop
- Pot odds required for flush draw call on turn: 2:1
- Turn shove frequency short stack: 40% with top pair
- Blocker effects on turn bluffs: +10% equity with nut blockers
- Average turn pots: 4x preflop pot
- Turn fold equity vs calling station: 25%
- Improve to two pair or better on turn: 5-7% unimproved flop
- Turn rainbow to paired board: 12%
- Delay c-bet frequency on turn: 30%
- Equity swing on turn with runner-runner draws: 15%
- Turn check-call vs bet frequency: 25%
Turn Statistics Interpretation
Despite appearing as a mere 19.6% shot for your flush, poker’s turn is where cunning players, armed with their 45% double barrel success rates and 10% check-raises, navigate a 4x bloated pot and leverage their blockers to turn a 35% fold equity into a meaningful victory over calling stations who stubbornly chase their 8.5% gutshots.
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