While pocket aces give you an 85% chance of dominating a single opponent preflop, the true mastery of Texas Hold'em lies in navigating the dramatic drop in those odds as hidden draws and unpredictable boards transform powerhouse hands into tense showdowns.
Key Takeaways
- In Texas Hold'em, pocket Aces (AA) have a preflop win rate of 85.23% against one random hand
- Pocket Kings (KK) hold 82.39% equity preflop versus a single random opponent hand
- The preflop equity of AK suited (AKs) against a random hand is 66.16%
- On the flop, a top pair top kicker (TPTK) hand wins 32.1% of the time against a random hand by showdown
- Flop texture dry boards (one draw) give top pair 28.7% equity vs overpair
- Flush draw on flop has 34.97% equity to improve by river against top pair
- On the turn, flush draw equity drops to 19.6% against top pair
- Turn OESD has 16.5% equity to river straight vs made hand
- Turn improves flush draw equity to 54.8% if still live vs overpair
- In Texas Hold'em, button position raises win 42.5% of pots preflop
- Early position open raise success rate 35.2% in cash games
- Small blind defense vs steal 28.7% call/3-bet rate
- WSOP Main Event average buy-in $10,000 with 8,663 entrants in 2023
- World Series of Poker founded in 1970 with first event won by Johnny Moss
- Total WSOP bracelets awarded exceed 1,800 as of 2024
The blog post explains the varying win rates for different Texas Hold'em starting hands and positions.
Flop Statistics
- On the flop, a top pair top kicker (TPTK) hand wins 32.1% of the time against a random hand by showdown
- Flop texture dry boards (one draw) give top pair 28.7% equity vs overpair
- Flush draw on flop has 34.97% equity to improve by river against top pair
- Open-ended straight draw (OESD) on flop holds 31.5% equity vs top pair
- Set mining on flop succeeds 11.8% of the time for small pocket pairs vs overcards
- Gutshot straight draw on flop has 16.5% equity to hit by river vs made hand
- Flopped two pair wins 24.6% vs set on paired board equity
- Overpair on flop has 71.2% equity vs two overcards on dry board
- Flop, combo draw (flush + OESD) equity is 49.8% vs top pair
- Monotone flop gives flush draw 35.2% equity vs overpair
- Flopped set equity vs flush draw is 82.4% on paired board
- Double gutshot on flop has 26.3% equity to straight vs top pair
- Flop top pair weak kicker wins 19.5% vs TPTK
- Wet coordinated flop reduces top pair equity to 22.1% vs draws
- Flop OESD + gutshot equity is 41.7% vs overpair
- Backdoor flush draw adds 5.2% equity to overpair on flop
- Flopped trips hold 92.3% equity vs two pair on dry board
- Flush draw + pair on flop has 47.6% equity vs set
- Flop, straight draw equity vs set is 18.9% on monotone board
- Top pair on rainbow flop wins 29.4% vs random range
- Flop set vs overpair equity is 84.7%
- Gutshot + flush draw combo on flop 38.2% equity vs TPTK
- Flop two pair vs OESD equity 65.3%
- Overpair on wet flop drops to 58.9% equity vs draws
- Flop weak draw (gutshot only) 12.4% equity vs made hand
- Paired flop top set equity 96.1% vs lower two pair
- Flop middle pair equity 15.7% vs top pair
- OESD on paired flop 22.8% equity vs two pair
- Flush draw vs straight on flop equity 28.5%
- Flop bottom pair wins 11.2% vs overpair range
Flop Statistics Interpretation
Despite what your gut might scream in the heat of the moment, the cold math of Texas Hold'em reveals that most hands you fall in love with on the flop are actually fragile underdogs, painting a sobering picture of poker as a game of patience and disciplined surrender.
Positional and Player Stats
- In Texas Hold'em, button position raises win 42.5% of pots preflop
- Early position open raise success rate 35.2% in cash games
- Small blind defense vs steal 28.7% call/3-bet rate
- Cutoff position steals succeed 51.3% of attempts
- Big blind vs button steal folds 67.4% preflop
- UTG raise gets called 22.1% in 6-max games
- Hijack position VPIP averages 24.6% for winning players
- MP open raise fold equity 38.9%
- Button vs SB 3-bet success 55.2%
- CO limpers face 3.7x average raise size
- SB complete rate to button raise 41.8%
- Late position PFR for regs 26.4%
- Early position 4-bet range defended 12.3%
- BB vs UTG raise defends 18.9%
- Button cold call VPIP 15.7%
- MP squeeze play success 47.6%
- SB vs BB heads-up win rate 52.3% for aggressor
- CO iso-raise win rate 61.2%
- UTG+1 fold to 3-bet 68.4%
- Button steal vs blinds success 69.1%
- Early pos check-raise flop frequency 8.2%
- Late pos c-bet rate 62.7% on flop
- BB 3-bet vs CO 14.5% frequency
- MP donk bet flop 4.3% usage
- Button river bet size average 72% pot
- SB limp frequency 3.1% in tournaments
- Late pos fold to c-bet 48.9%
- UTG VPIP for nits 14.2%
- CO vs button defend 32.6%
- Big blind ante steal success 53.4%
Positional and Player Stats Interpretation
The statistics ruthlessly confirm that in poker, position is a gentle tyranny, where late spots bully with impunity and early positions endure the grudging calls of their oppressed subjects, all according to the cold, hard math of advantage.
Preflop Statistics
- In Texas Hold'em, pocket Aces (AA) have a preflop win rate of 85.23% against one random hand
- Pocket Kings (KK) hold 82.39% equity preflop versus a single random opponent hand
- The preflop equity of AK suited (AKs) against a random hand is 66.16%
- QQ preflop has 79.95% win probability all-in against random cards
- JJ starts with 77.55% equity preflop vs one random hand in Hold'em
- Preflop, suited connectors like 76s have 39.85% equity against random hand
- Pocket pairs from 22 to 99 average 50.65% preflop equity vs two random overcards
- AQo offsuit has 64.54% preflop equity against a random hand
- Preflop, KQs suited equity is 65.22% vs random opponent
- The all-in preflop win rate for TT is 75.72% against one random hand
- 98s suited connectors hold 44.67% equity preflop vs random
- Preflop equity of AJo is 58.92% against random hand in Hold'em
- Pocket 88 has 71.88% win rate preflop all-in vs random
- KQo offsuit preflop equity stands at 61.35% vs random
- Suited A5s has 57.42% preflop equity against random cards
- Preflop, 65s equity is 40.12% vs a single random hand
- 77 pocket pair preflop win probability is 69.84% all-in vs random
- ATs suited has 63.45% equity preflop against random opponent
- Preflop equity for QJs is 60.21% vs random hand
- 54s suited connectors equity preflop is 37.89% against random
- Pocket 66 all-in preflop has 67.92% win rate vs random
- KTs suited preflop equity is 62.78% vs one random hand
- ATo offsuit holds 55.67% equity preflop against random
- Preflop, JTs equity is 56.34% vs random opponent cards
- 43s has 35.45% preflop equity against a random hand
- Pocket 55 win rate preflop all-in is 65.78% vs random
- QJo offsuit preflop equity is 53.12% against random
- Preflop equity for 87s suited is 41.23% vs random hand
- Pocket 44 has 63.45% win probability preflop vs random
- KJo preflop equity stands at 52.89% against one random hand
Preflop Statistics Interpretation
While the raw numbers paint kings as demigods and low connectors as peasants, poker’s enduring lesson is that aces can crack and deuces can win, which is why we play the hand and not just the spreadsheet.
Tournament and Historical Stats
- WSOP Main Event average buy-in $10,000 with 8,663 entrants in 2023
- World Series of Poker founded in 1970 with first event won by Johnny Moss
- Total WSOP bracelets awarded exceed 1,800 as of 2024
- Phil Hellmuth holds record 17 WSOP bracelets
- Doyle Brunson won first two WSOP Main Events in 1976-1977
- Average WSOP Main Event field size 6,500 players since 2000
- EPT Monte Carlo largest field 1,140 in 2022
- WPT Championship average purse $5.2M
- Online MTTs peak at 100,000+ entrants on PokerStars Sunday Million
- High roller buy-ins average $100K+ with 50-100 fields
- Bounty tournaments payout 120% of field via knockouts
- Average cash game rake 5-10% capped at 5BB online
- Texas Hold'em invented in 1900s Texas, popularized by Binion's Horseshoe
- Global poker market $100B+ annually with Hold'em 70% share
- Daniel Negreanu all-time tournament earnings $52M
- 2023 WSOP Main Event winner $12.1M first prize to Daniel Weinman
- Average ITM rate in MTTs 15% for large fields
- Final table bubble bursts 9-handed 80% of time
- Online cash game hands per hour 60-100 full ring
- Phil Ivey 10 WSOP bracelets and 1 WPT title
- Turbo MTTs ICM pressure peaks at 20BB stacks
- Live cash game average pot $45 NL200
- Women WSOP winners 12 Main Events total
- Peak online poker peak US players 10M pre-2011 Black Friday
- Triton Poker Series high roller average buy-in $200K
- Average ROI for tourney pros -5% to +10% yearly
- Heads-up SNGs win rate top players 55%+
- 2003 WSOP Main Event won by amateur Chris Moneymaker sparking boom
- Global online poker traffic 100M hands daily
- WSOP Paradise 2023 $25K NLHE winner $2.9M
- Cash game pros track 1M+ hands for sample size
- EPT total events 500+ since 2004 inception
- Justin Bonomo peak earnings $60M all-time
Tournament and Historical Stats Interpretation
In the half-century since Johnny Moss won that first bracelet, poker has evolved from a smoky backroom duel into a global theater where the average hopeful now stares down nearly nine thousand rivals for a shot at eight-figure glory, proving Chris Moneymaker's amateur win was less a fluke and more a prophecy for this wildly lucrative, brutally difficult, and statistically humbling game.
Turn and River Statistics
- On the turn, flush draw equity drops to 19.6% against top pair
- Turn OESD has 16.5% equity to river straight vs made hand
- Turn improves flush draw equity to 54.8% if still live vs overpair
- Gutshot on turn holds 8.7% equity to river vs top pair
- Turn brick for overpair maintains 81.2% equity vs draws
- Double gutshot turn equity 17.4% to straight vs set
- Turn pair + gutshot combo 23.1% equity vs two pair
- Backdoor draws on turn add 4.1% equity to top pair
- Turn set vs flush draw equity 89.3%
- Rivered straight wins 100% vs unfinished draws
- Turn OESD + flush draw equity 35.7% to river
- Gutshot + wheel draw on turn 14.2% equity vs TPTK
- Turn overpair vs turned set loses 92.6% equity
- River showdown value of top pair 42.3% win rate post-turn
- Turn monotone board flush blocker equity 62.4%
- River nuts frequency from flop flush draw is 19.6%
- Turn trips vs straight draw 94.8% equity
- River pair top kicker wins 31.8% of turn-called pots
- Turn gutshot completion rate to river 16.7%
- Full house on river from set 33.4% of turn sets
- Turn draw folds to bet 68.2% in databases
- River bluff catch win rate 22.5% vs value range
- Turn two pair vs combo draw 58.9% equity
- Rivered flush from turn draw 34.9% success
- Turn weak pair equity 9.3% vs strong range
- Quads on river rarity from turn set 2.1%
- Turn OESD realization 31.5% to showdown win
- River value bet call accuracy 41.7%
- Straight flush river from combo draw 0.4%
- Turn position early bets win 62.3% pots uncontested
Turn and River Statistics Interpretation
Even on the river of life, these cold numbers remind us that hope is not a strategy—your flush draw is more a desperate prayer than a plan, while the overpair, like a comfortable tyrant, usually gets to cash in on your optimism.
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