While pocket aces give you an 85% chance of dominating a single opponent preflop, the true mastery of Texas Hold'em lies in navigating the dramatic drop in those odds as hidden draws and unpredictable boards transform powerhouse hands into tense showdowns.
Key Takeaways
- In Texas Hold'em, pocket Aces (AA) have a preflop win rate of 85.23% against one random hand
- Pocket Kings (KK) hold 82.39% equity preflop versus a single random opponent hand
- The preflop equity of AK suited (AKs) against a random hand is 66.16%
- On the flop, a top pair top kicker (TPTK) hand wins 32.1% of the time against a random hand by showdown
- Flop texture dry boards (one draw) give top pair 28.7% equity vs overpair
- Flush draw on flop has 34.97% equity to improve by river against top pair
- On the turn, flush draw equity drops to 19.6% against top pair
- Turn OESD has 16.5% equity to river straight vs made hand
- Turn improves flush draw equity to 54.8% if still live vs overpair
- In Texas Hold'em, button position raises win 42.5% of pots preflop
- Early position open raise success rate 35.2% in cash games
- Small blind defense vs steal 28.7% call/3-bet rate
- WSOP Main Event average buy-in $10,000 with 8,663 entrants in 2023
- World Series of Poker founded in 1970 with first event won by Johnny Moss
- Total WSOP bracelets awarded exceed 1,800 as of 2024
The blog post explains the varying win rates for different Texas Hold'em starting hands and positions.
Flop Statistics
1On the flop, a top pair top kicker (TPTK) hand wins 32.1% of the time against a random hand by showdown
Verified2Flop texture dry boards (one draw) give top pair 28.7% equity vs overpair
Verified3Flush draw on flop has 34.97% equity to improve by river against top pair
Verified4Open-ended straight draw (OESD) on flop holds 31.5% equity vs top pair
Directional5Set mining on flop succeeds 11.8% of the time for small pocket pairs vs overcards
Single source6Gutshot straight draw on flop has 16.5% equity to hit by river vs made hand
Verified7Flopped two pair wins 24.6% vs set on paired board equity
Verified8Overpair on flop has 71.2% equity vs two overcards on dry board
Verified9Flop, combo draw (flush + OESD) equity is 49.8% vs top pair
Directional10Monotone flop gives flush draw 35.2% equity vs overpair
Single source11Flopped set equity vs flush draw is 82.4% on paired board
Verified12Double gutshot on flop has 26.3% equity to straight vs top pair
Verified13Flop top pair weak kicker wins 19.5% vs TPTK
Verified14Wet coordinated flop reduces top pair equity to 22.1% vs draws
Directional15Flop OESD + gutshot equity is 41.7% vs overpair
Single source16Backdoor flush draw adds 5.2% equity to overpair on flop
Verified17Flopped trips hold 92.3% equity vs two pair on dry board
Verified18Flush draw + pair on flop has 47.6% equity vs set
Verified19Flop, straight draw equity vs set is 18.9% on monotone board
Directional20Top pair on rainbow flop wins 29.4% vs random range
Single source21Flop set vs overpair equity is 84.7%
Verified22Gutshot + flush draw combo on flop 38.2% equity vs TPTK
Verified23Flop two pair vs OESD equity 65.3%
Verified24Overpair on wet flop drops to 58.9% equity vs draws
Directional25Flop weak draw (gutshot only) 12.4% equity vs made hand
Single source26Paired flop top set equity 96.1% vs lower two pair
Verified27Flop middle pair equity 15.7% vs top pair
Verified28OESD on paired flop 22.8% equity vs two pair
Verified29Flush draw vs straight on flop equity 28.5%
Directional30Flop bottom pair wins 11.2% vs overpair range
Single sourceFlop Statistics Interpretation
Despite what your gut might scream in the heat of the moment, the cold math of Texas Hold'em reveals that most hands you fall in love with on the flop are actually fragile underdogs, painting a sobering picture of poker as a game of patience and disciplined surrender.
Positional and Player Stats
1In Texas Hold'em, button position raises win 42.5% of pots preflop
Verified2Early position open raise success rate 35.2% in cash games
Verified3Small blind defense vs steal 28.7% call/3-bet rate
Verified4Cutoff position steals succeed 51.3% of attempts
Directional5Big blind vs button steal folds 67.4% preflop
Single source6UTG raise gets called 22.1% in 6-max games
Verified7Hijack position VPIP averages 24.6% for winning players
Verified8MP open raise fold equity 38.9%
Verified9Button vs SB 3-bet success 55.2%
Directional10CO limpers face 3.7x average raise size
Single source11SB complete rate to button raise 41.8%
Verified12Late position PFR for regs 26.4%
Verified13Early position 4-bet range defended 12.3%
Verified14BB vs UTG raise defends 18.9%
Directional15Button cold call VPIP 15.7%
Single source16MP squeeze play success 47.6%
Verified17SB vs BB heads-up win rate 52.3% for aggressor
Verified18CO iso-raise win rate 61.2%
Verified19UTG+1 fold to 3-bet 68.4%
Directional20Button steal vs blinds success 69.1%
Single source21Early pos check-raise flop frequency 8.2%
Verified22Late pos c-bet rate 62.7% on flop
Verified23BB 3-bet vs CO 14.5% frequency
Verified24MP donk bet flop 4.3% usage
Directional25Button river bet size average 72% pot
Single source26SB limp frequency 3.1% in tournaments
Verified27Late pos fold to c-bet 48.9%
Verified28UTG VPIP for nits 14.2%
Verified29CO vs button defend 32.6%
Directional30Big blind ante steal success 53.4%
Single sourcePositional and Player Stats Interpretation
The statistics ruthlessly confirm that in poker, position is a gentle tyranny, where late spots bully with impunity and early positions endure the grudging calls of their oppressed subjects, all according to the cold, hard math of advantage.
Preflop Statistics
1In Texas Hold'em, pocket Aces (AA) have a preflop win rate of 85.23% against one random hand
Verified2Pocket Kings (KK) hold 82.39% equity preflop versus a single random opponent hand
Verified3The preflop equity of AK suited (AKs) against a random hand is 66.16%
Verified4QQ preflop has 79.95% win probability all-in against random cards
Directional5JJ starts with 77.55% equity preflop vs one random hand in Hold'em
Single source6Preflop, suited connectors like 76s have 39.85% equity against random hand
Verified7Pocket pairs from 22 to 99 average 50.65% preflop equity vs two random overcards
Verified8AQo offsuit has 64.54% preflop equity against a random hand
Verified9Preflop, KQs suited equity is 65.22% vs random opponent
Directional10The all-in preflop win rate for TT is 75.72% against one random hand
Single source1198s suited connectors hold 44.67% equity preflop vs random
Verified12Preflop equity of AJo is 58.92% against random hand in Hold'em
Verified13Pocket 88 has 71.88% win rate preflop all-in vs random
Verified14KQo offsuit preflop equity stands at 61.35% vs random
Directional15Suited A5s has 57.42% preflop equity against random cards
Single source16Preflop, 65s equity is 40.12% vs a single random hand
Verified1777 pocket pair preflop win probability is 69.84% all-in vs random
Verified18ATs suited has 63.45% equity preflop against random opponent
Verified19Preflop equity for QJs is 60.21% vs random hand
Directional2054s suited connectors equity preflop is 37.89% against random
Single source21Pocket 66 all-in preflop has 67.92% win rate vs random
Verified22KTs suited preflop equity is 62.78% vs one random hand
Verified23ATo offsuit holds 55.67% equity preflop against random
Verified24Preflop, JTs equity is 56.34% vs random opponent cards
Directional2543s has 35.45% preflop equity against a random hand
Single source26Pocket 55 win rate preflop all-in is 65.78% vs random
Verified27QJo offsuit preflop equity is 53.12% against random
Verified28Preflop equity for 87s suited is 41.23% vs random hand
Verified29Pocket 44 has 63.45% win probability preflop vs random
Directional30KJo preflop equity stands at 52.89% against one random hand
Single sourcePreflop Statistics Interpretation
While the raw numbers paint kings as demigods and low connectors as peasants, poker’s enduring lesson is that aces can crack and deuces can win, which is why we play the hand and not just the spreadsheet.
Tournament and Historical Stats
1WSOP Main Event average buy-in $10,000 with 8,663 entrants in 2023
Verified2World Series of Poker founded in 1970 with first event won by Johnny Moss
Verified3Total WSOP bracelets awarded exceed 1,800 as of 2024
Verified4Phil Hellmuth holds record 17 WSOP bracelets
Directional5Doyle Brunson won first two WSOP Main Events in 1976-1977
Single source6Average WSOP Main Event field size 6,500 players since 2000
Verified7EPT Monte Carlo largest field 1,140 in 2022
Verified8WPT Championship average purse $5.2M
Verified9Online MTTs peak at 100,000+ entrants on PokerStars Sunday Million
Directional10High roller buy-ins average $100K+ with 50-100 fields
Single source11Bounty tournaments payout 120% of field via knockouts
Verified12Average cash game rake 5-10% capped at 5BB online
Verified13Texas Hold'em invented in 1900s Texas, popularized by Binion's Horseshoe
Verified14Global poker market $100B+ annually with Hold'em 70% share
Directional15Daniel Negreanu all-time tournament earnings $52M
Single source162023 WSOP Main Event winner $12.1M first prize to Daniel Weinman
Verified17Average ITM rate in MTTs 15% for large fields
Verified18Final table bubble bursts 9-handed 80% of time
Verified19Online cash game hands per hour 60-100 full ring
Directional20Phil Ivey 10 WSOP bracelets and 1 WPT title
Single source21Turbo MTTs ICM pressure peaks at 20BB stacks
Verified22Live cash game average pot $45 NL200
Verified23Women WSOP winners 12 Main Events total
Verified24Peak online poker peak US players 10M pre-2011 Black Friday
Directional25Triton Poker Series high roller average buy-in $200K
Single source26Average ROI for tourney pros -5% to +10% yearly
Verified27Heads-up SNGs win rate top players 55%+
Verified282003 WSOP Main Event won by amateur Chris Moneymaker sparking boom
Verified29Global online poker traffic 100M hands daily
Directional30WSOP Paradise 2023 $25K NLHE winner $2.9M
Single source31Cash game pros track 1M+ hands for sample size
Verified32EPT total events 500+ since 2004 inception
Verified33Justin Bonomo peak earnings $60M all-time
VerifiedTournament and Historical Stats Interpretation
In the half-century since Johnny Moss won that first bracelet, poker has evolved from a smoky backroom duel into a global theater where the average hopeful now stares down nearly nine thousand rivals for a shot at eight-figure glory, proving Chris Moneymaker's amateur win was less a fluke and more a prophecy for this wildly lucrative, brutally difficult, and statistically humbling game.
Turn and River Statistics
1On the turn, flush draw equity drops to 19.6% against top pair
Verified2Turn OESD has 16.5% equity to river straight vs made hand
Verified3Turn improves flush draw equity to 54.8% if still live vs overpair
Verified4Gutshot on turn holds 8.7% equity to river vs top pair
Directional5Turn brick for overpair maintains 81.2% equity vs draws
Single source6Double gutshot turn equity 17.4% to straight vs set
Verified7Turn pair + gutshot combo 23.1% equity vs two pair
Verified8Backdoor draws on turn add 4.1% equity to top pair
Verified9Turn set vs flush draw equity 89.3%
Directional10Rivered straight wins 100% vs unfinished draws
Single source11Turn OESD + flush draw equity 35.7% to river
Verified12Gutshot + wheel draw on turn 14.2% equity vs TPTK
Verified13Turn overpair vs turned set loses 92.6% equity
Verified14River showdown value of top pair 42.3% win rate post-turn
Directional15Turn monotone board flush blocker equity 62.4%
Single source16River nuts frequency from flop flush draw is 19.6%
Verified17Turn trips vs straight draw 94.8% equity
Verified18River pair top kicker wins 31.8% of turn-called pots
Verified19Turn gutshot completion rate to river 16.7%
Directional20Full house on river from set 33.4% of turn sets
Single source21Turn draw folds to bet 68.2% in databases
Verified22River bluff catch win rate 22.5% vs value range
Verified23Turn two pair vs combo draw 58.9% equity
Verified24Rivered flush from turn draw 34.9% success
Directional25Turn weak pair equity 9.3% vs strong range
Single source26Quads on river rarity from turn set 2.1%
Verified27Turn OESD realization 31.5% to showdown win
Verified28River value bet call accuracy 41.7%
Verified29Straight flush river from combo draw 0.4%
Directional30Turn position early bets win 62.3% pots uncontested
Single sourceTurn and River Statistics Interpretation
Even on the river of life, these cold numbers remind us that hope is not a strategy—your flush draw is more a desperate prayer than a plan, while the overpair, like a comfortable tyrant, usually gets to cash in on your optimism.
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