While your odds of being dealt pocket Aces are a slim 1 in 221, understanding the precise probabilities behind every flop, turn, and river is what separates strategic winners from hopeful gamblers in Texas Hold'em.
Key Takeaways
- In Texas Hold'em, the probability of being dealt pocket Aces (AA) preflop is exactly 1 in 221 hands, or 0.4524%
- The odds of receiving any pocket pair preflop in Texas Hold'em are 1 in 17.41, approximately 5.75%
- Probability of being dealt suited connectors like 87s preflop is 1 in 117.8 for any specific suited connector
- With pocket pair preflop, flop hits set or better 11.8% of time (one set 11.1%, quads 0.17%)
- Flop a flush with suited hand: exactly 0.84%
- Probability of flopping a straight or flush draw with suited connectors: 10-12%
- On turn, open-ended straight draw hits 17.4% (8 outs)
- Flush draw on turn improves to flush on river: 19.6% (9 outs)
- Gutshot on turn: 8.5% to fill on river (4 outs)
- Pocket AA vs random hand all-in preflop equity: 85.2%
- AKs vs QQ preflop equity: 45.7% for AKs
- Set mining equity vs overpair: 11.8% implied odds needed 12:1
- WSOP Main Event average buy-in equity ROI: -10% for field
- Average WSOP bracelets won per pro lifetime: 2.1 for top 100
- Online MTT field size average: 1,500 players
Texas Hold'em hands like pocket aces are surprisingly rare.
Equity and Pot Odds
- Pocket AA vs random hand all-in preflop equity: 85.2%
- AKs vs QQ preflop equity: 45.7% for AKs
- Set mining equity vs overpair: 11.8% implied odds needed 12:1
- Flush draw vs top pair flop equity: 35%, pot odds 3:1 sufficient
- Open-ended vs overpair: 31.5% equity, call 1/3 pot
- AA vs KK preflop: 82.4% equity for AA
- Gutshot equity vs top pair: 16.5%, needs 5:1 implied
- Two pair vs set flop equity: 18%
- Suited connector 76s vs JJ preflop: 38% equity
- Top pair vs flush draw: 54% favorite
- Overpair vs flush draw + OESD: 25% dog
- Pocket pair vs two overcards: 55% preflop
- Straight vs flush draw turn: 55% equity
- Implied odds for set mining: win 11bb+ per bb risked avg
- AKo vs 22+ range equity: 42%
- Combo draw equity vs top pair: 47%
- Bluff catcher equity avg 30% vs polarized range
- Pot odds example: $100 pot, $30 bet, need 25% equity to call
- JJ vs AQo preflop: 58% equity
- Rivered flush vs top pair equity retrospective: 65% favored
- Random hand vs tight range equity: 25%
- OESD + flush draw vs overpair: 40% equity
- Break even fold equity in bluff: 33% for pot-sized bet
- TT vs AKs: 53% equity preflop
- Set vs flush draw: 62% equity flop
- 3-bet pot equity avg top pair: 70%
- Minimum defense frequency river: 1/(1+bet size)
- KQs vs 88 preflop equity: 41%
Equity and Pot Odds Interpretation
In the elegant mathematics of Texas Hold'em, the brutal truth is that a pair of aces struts into battle with an 85% chance to crush a random hand, while a suited ace-king merely flips a coin against queens, yet a flush draw boldly chases with 35% equity against top pair, demanding only 3-to-1 pot odds to justify its hopeful pursuit.
Flop Statistics
- With pocket pair preflop, flop hits set or better 11.8% of time (one set 11.1%, quads 0.17%)
- Flop a flush with suited hand: exactly 0.84%
- Probability of flopping a straight or flush draw with suited connectors: 10-12%
- Flop two pair or better with overpair preflop: 4.2%
- Open-ended straight draw on flop: 31.5% equity to improve by river
- Gutshot straight draw on flop: 16.5% to hit by river
- Flop top pair top kicker (TPTK) with AK preflop: 30.2%
- With suited hand, flop flush draw: 10.9% (9 outs)
- Pocket pair flops set: 11.8%, trips 2.1%, full house 0.17%, quads 0.04%
- Overcards flop (two overcards to pair): 32% with unpaired hand
- Flop a pair with unpaired preflop hand: 32.4%
- Rainbow flop probability: 49.1%
- Monotone flop (all same suit): 0.77%
- Paired flop (one pair on board): 17.4%
- Two-tone flop (two suits): 50.1%
- Flop straight flush draw with suited connectors: 0.3%
- With AKo, flop Ace high: 15.6%
- Pocket pair below board flops overpair: varies, avg 23% if 20% overcards
- Flop three of a kind with unpaired: 2.1%
- Double suited flop for two suited players: rare, 4.2% conditional
- Flop exactly one pair with random hand: 27.3%
- Broadway straight possible on flop: 1.2% for specific connectors
- Flop full house with pocket pair: 0.17%
- Gutshot + flush draw combo: 35% equity
- Flop top pair with dominated kicker: 12% risk conditional
- Connected flop (straight draw possible): 28%
- With suited Ace, flop flush draw: 11.1%
- Flop quads with pocket pair: 0.04%
- Dry flop (no draws): 20%
Flop Statistics Interpretation
Despite their dauntingly specific probabilities, these cold, hard numbers whisper a familiar poker truth: the game is mostly a patient vigil for fleeting moments of mathematical grace, brutally punctuated by the far more common tyranny of dry boards and missed draws.
Preflop Statistics
- In Texas Hold'em, the probability of being dealt pocket Aces (AA) preflop is exactly 1 in 221 hands, or 0.4524%
- The odds of receiving any pocket pair preflop in Texas Hold'em are 1 in 17.41, approximately 5.75%
- Probability of being dealt suited connectors like 87s preflop is 1 in 117.8 for any specific suited connector
- In Hold'em, the chance of getting Ace-King suited (AKs) is 1 in 331 preflop, or 0.302%
- Pocket Kings (KK) preflop probability is 1 in 82.4, or 1.21%
- Any Ace preflop occurs 1 in 12.25 times, about 8.16%
- Broadway cards (TJQKA) in hand preflop: suited 2.11%, offsuit 4.62%
- Gapped suited connectors like J9s probability is 1 in 123 preflop
- Pocket Queens (QQ) dealt 1 in 122.48 times, 0.816%
- Any suited hand preflop: 23.5%
- Ace-Jack suited (AJs) probability 1 in 373
- One-gapper suited like 86s: 1 in 117
- Pocket Jacks (JJ): 1 in 153.2, 0.652%
- Any two suited cards: 1 in 4.25 preflop
- King-Queen suited (KQs): 1 in 326
- Pocket Tens (TT): 1 in 213.8, 0.468%
- Suited Ace-any: 1 in 64.4
- Pocket Nines (99): 1 in 306, 0.327%
- Any offsuit broadway: 1 in 28.5
- Pocket Eights (88): 1 in 463, 0.216%
- Two-gapper suited like 75s: 1 in 122
- Pocket Sevens (77): 1 in 745, 0.134%
- Any pocket pair below 77: 3.2%
- Ace-King offsuit (AKo): 1 in 110, 0.907%
- King-Jack suited (KJs): 1 in 378
- Pocket Sixes (66): 1 in 1240, 0.081%
- Any Ax suited: 5.85%
- Queen-Jack suited (QJs): 1 in 380
- Pocket Fives (55): 1 in 2080, 0.048%
- Total premium hands (AA-JJ, AKs, AKo, AQs): 2.1%
Preflop Statistics Interpretation
While the gods of the draw are notoriously stingy with aces, the royal welcome of a suited broadway, and even premium pairs, they are depressingly generous with the kind of rags that make you sigh and check-fold before the flop even arrives.
Tournament and Player Stats
- WSOP Main Event average buy-in equity ROI: -10% for field
- Average WSOP bracelets won per pro lifetime: 2.1 for top 100
- Online MTT field size average: 1,500 players
- Bubble survival rate in 100-player SNG: 15%
- Average stack at final table WSOP ME: 25BB
- VPIP average winning player online: 22-25%
- PFR for tournament pros: 18-22%
- Aggression Factor (AF) optimal: 2.5-3.5
- Fold to 3-bet % for loose players: 65%
- Win rate in $10 MTTs: 35% ITM for breakeven
- Heads-up win % for skilled player: 55-60%
- Average final table pay jump: 2.5x
- ICM pressure at bubble: shove 10BB loose 40% range
- Online poker pros play 1,000+ hands/hour multi-tabling 24 tables
- Female players in WSOP ME: 4-6% annually
- Average age WSOP Main Event winner: 35 years
- Bounty MTT avg bounties collected: 3.2 per deep run
- Steal success rate blinds: 40% vs tight BB
- 4-bet bluff % optimal: 7-10%
- ROI for top 10% MTT grinders: +25% avg
- Cash game vs tournament winrate: tourneys 2x variance
- PKO average bounty value: 20% buy-in
- Final table bubble burst rate: 12%
- Multi-table SNG win rate top players: 8-10%
- Ante impact on stack sizes: 12.5% pot preflop in MTTs
- Limp-fold % in early position: 85%
- Deep run % in large fields: 0.1% to final table
- Fold equity in shoves: 40% avg
- Pro players' yearly volume: 500k+ hands online
- WTSD (went to showdown) winning: 25%
Tournament and Player Stats Interpretation
Here's my take: Even if you navigate the relentless statistical minefield of modern poker with the precision of a pro—grinding half a million hands a year, hitting optimal aggression factors, and expertly wielding ICM pressure—the cold, witty truth remains that the collective field is essentially funding a gloriously volatile lottery where a 55% edge feels monumental and your average destiny is a -10% return on a dream.
Turn and River Statistics
- On turn, open-ended straight draw hits 17.4% (8 outs)
- Flush draw on turn improves to flush on river: 19.6% (9 outs)
- Gutshot on turn: 8.5% to fill on river (4 outs)
- Any two cards live on turn: 23.2% to improve pair
- Backdoor flush draw hits both turn/river: 4.2%
- Set on turn with pocket pair: 16.9% from flop unimproved (one out approx)
- Straight flush draw on turn: 16.5% equity (one suit + straight)
- Overpair holds up on turn/river vs overcards: 65% from flop
- Combo draw (flush + open end) on turn: 47% to boat/straight/flush
- Turn bricks (no help): 54% for flush draw holder
- Pair improves to two pair or trips on turn: 16.5%
- Double gutshot on turn: 32% (16 outs less overlaps)
- River fills any draw average 20% from turn unimproved
- Backdoor straight hits river: 5.1%
- Trips on river from overpair: 4.2%
- No runner-runner flush for backdoor: 95.3%
- Fill up (full house) on river from set: 16.3%
- Quads on river from set: 1.7%
- Broadway card on turn/river: 18% conditional
- Flush completes river from turn draw: 19.6%
- Open ender hits turn: 17.4%, river 31.5% total from flop
- Gutshot + backdoor flush: 22% equity from turn
- Any out hits river: 4.3% per out approx (36% for 8 outs)
- Set holds vs two overcards turn/river: 73%
- Two flush draws river: 19%
- Straight draw vs set on turn: 18% to win
- Top pair kicker plays turn/river holds 32% vs two pair
- Rule of 4 and 2: 4 outs x2 flop to turn/river ~36%, accurate within 2%
Turn and River Statistics Interpretation
While poker may present itself as a game of chance, the unforgiving math of these Texas Hold'em stats reminds us that hope is not a strategy, but rather a quantifiable percentage you're paying to see the next card.
Sources & References
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