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Top 10 Best Catastrophe Modelling Services of 2026

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Top 10 Best Catastrophe Modelling Services of 2026

Compare catastrophe modelling services from Lockton, Aon, and Oliver Wyman for risk teams. Review fit and tradeoffs for real projects.

19 min readUpdated Editorially scoped research
How we ranked these tools
01Editorial Scope

Vendors set the topic, but our editors set the inclusion criteria and the evaluation framework before research starts.

02Source Research

AI search agents find sources, extract figures with provenance, and aggregate written reviews. They also transcribe video reviews and podcasts.

Read our full methodology →

Framework: Features 40% · Ease 30% · Value 30%

Gitnux may earn a commission through links on this page — this does not influence rankings. Editorial policy

Catastrophe modelling services translate hazard and exposure data into scenario analytics that support pricing, portfolio view, and reinsurance decisions for insurers, reinsurers, and risk teams. This comparison helps evidence-minded buyers weigh tradeoffs between model depth, integration via API and data model design, operational delivery of risk runs, and how each provider handles governance controls like RBAC and audit logs.

Lockton is the best overall choice for brokerage-style coordination on placement decisions, because its contract-ready catastrophe outputs align scenario assumptions with underwriting and reinsurance use. Oliver Wyman is a strong alternative for enterprise teams needing governed probabilistic outputs, since it supports defensible benchmarking and stakeholder-ready change documentation.

Editor’s top 3 picks

Three quick recommendations before you dive into the full comparison below — each one leads on a different dimension.

Editor pick
1

Lockton

Contract-ready catastrophe modelling outputs that align scenario assumptions with underwriting and reinsurance placement decisions.

Best for: Fits when brokerage-style coordination is needed for placement decisions and scenario governance.

2

Aon

Editor pick

Assumption management across hazard and loss outputs with model change management that supports repeatable, explainable run production.

Best for: Fits when enterprise risk teams need governance-heavy catastrophe modelling tied to exposure and policy conditions.

3

Oliver Wyman

Editor pick

Model benchmarking and change-management documentation support consistent rollouts across underwriting, reinsurance, and capital teams.

Best for: Fits when enterprise risk teams need governed probabilistic catastrophe modeling outputs tied to decisions.

Comparison Table

1
LocktonBest overall
other
9.3/10
Overall
2
other
8.8/10
Overall
3
specialist
8.6/10
Overall
4
specialist
8.4/10
Overall
5
other
8.2/10
Overall
6
specialist
7.9/10
Overall
7
7.5/10
Overall
8
7.3/10
Overall
9
6.8/10
Overall
10
6.7/10
Overall
#1

Lockton

other

Insurance broker providing catastrophe modeling and risk analytics services to commercial clients.

9.3/10
Overall
Features9.3/10
Ease of Use9.4/10
Value9.2/10
Standout feature

Contract-ready catastrophe modelling outputs that align scenario assumptions with underwriting and reinsurance placement decisions.

Lockton works as an intermediary that structures catastrophe modelling deliverables around underwriting and placement decisions, with attention to how event-level results roll up into portfolio and financial module views. The engagement commonly combines hazard characterization, vulnerability function application, and policy conditions mapping so outputs align with insured value and coverage intent. This design fits risk teams that need narrative control over scenario selection and how loss distributions feed into occurrence and annual average loss style metrics.

A key tradeoff is that Lockton’s brokerage coordination can reduce direct hands-on control for teams seeking self-serve model configuration or direct API-first automation. Lockton fits situations where the modelling output must integrate with placement strategy and stakeholder review cycles, and where governance discipline matters more than internal modelling tool ownership. It also fits organizations that have partial internal datasets and want a single accountable party to reconcile exposure mapping with modelling assumptions.

Pros
  • +Brokerage-led workflow ties catastrophe outputs to placement and underwriting needs
  • +Scenario design and assumptions are coordinated across hazard and loss mapping
  • +Deliverables support both probabilistic and deterministic decision contexts
  • +Governance-oriented model change inputs reduce downstream reconciliation friction
Cons
  • –Less suitable for teams demanding self-serve configuration via direct API control
  • –Engagement timelines can stretch when exposure normalization requires deep cleanup
Use scenarios
  • Commercial underwriting teams

    Portfolio analysis for renewal pricing

    More consistent renewal decisions

  • Reinsurance buyers

    Treaty structure selection support

    Cleaner treaty conversations

Show 1 more scenario
  • Risk governance teams

    Model change management inputs

    Lower reconciliation overhead

    Scenario and assumption deltas are documented to support internal review and stakeholder alignment.

Best for: Fits when brokerage-style coordination is needed for placement decisions and scenario governance.

#2

Aon

other

Global insurance and reinsurance broker offering catastrophe modeling services through its Impact Forecasting team.

8.8/10
Overall
Features8.8/10
Ease of Use8.7/10
Value8.9/10
Standout feature

Assumption management across hazard and loss outputs with model change management that supports repeatable, explainable run production.

Aon typically handles catastrophe modelling as an end-to-end engagement that ties geocoded location data and exposure databases to hazard module logic and vulnerability functions. The delivery emphasizes practical outputs for risk assessment, including loss exceedance probability summaries, annual average loss views, and tail-oriented metrics used for capital and reinsurance decisions. Fit is strongest for organizations that need managed ingestion of insured value and policy conditions into a stochastic event set workflow that supports repeatable run production.

A common tradeoff is that deep configuration and governance tend to require structured client participation in exposure data quality, coordinate systems, and assumption sign-off for model change management. Aon is a strong match for annual renewal cycles, quarterly catastrophe views, and regulatory-ready catastrophe model outputs where audit trails and benchmarking comparisons matter.

Pros
  • +Strong integration with exposure-to-loss workflows across hazard, vulnerability, and financial modules
  • +Model change management support helps keep assumptions traceable across run cycles
  • +Deliverables align with exceedance and return period style risk reporting needs
  • +Model benchmarking coverage supports informed comparisons during periodic updates
Cons
  • –Requires disciplined exposure data preparation and governance participation
  • –API and automation surface is less central than engagement-led delivery
  • –Longer turnaround may be expected for multi-region or policy-condition heavy inputs
  • –Configuration depth can feel heavy for teams expecting simple self-serve runs
Use scenarios
  • Reinsurance portfolio analysts

    Renewal scenario and tail risk assessment

    Sharper pricing and limit decisions

  • Property catastrophe risk leads

    Exposure-linked probabilistic assessment refresh

    Consistent catastrophe view over time

Show 2 more scenarios
  • Risk governance teams

    Model benchmarking and update governance

    Traceable change and rationale

    Aon supports comparison against alternative model assumptions for controlled rollouts of model change management.

  • Insurance pricing analytics

    Policy conditions integrated catastrophe outputs

    More usable catastrophe loss signals

    Aon translates policy conditions and insured values into model outputs for underwriting and exposure planning.

Best for: Fits when enterprise risk teams need governance-heavy catastrophe modelling tied to exposure and policy conditions.

#3

Oliver Wyman

specialist

Management consultancy providing catastrophe risk modeling and insurance strategy advisory services.

8.6/10
Overall
Features8.6/10
Ease of Use8.6/10
Value8.6/10
Standout feature

Model benchmarking and change-management documentation support consistent rollouts across underwriting, reinsurance, and capital teams.

Oliver Wyman typically supports probabilistic catastrophe modeling for property and related lines by coordinating hazard sources, vulnerability functions, and exposure database logic into event set driven loss outputs. The engagements commonly target operational needs such as consistent model governance, defensible assumption tracking, and repeatable production runs for underwriting and portfolio views. Risk teams looking for integration breadth tend to get more value when exposure pipelines, reinsurance structure interpretation, and reporting formats are part of the same project scope.

A key tradeoff appears in implementation speed when internal systems need significant mapping to Oliver Wyman’s expected exposure and policy condition inputs. Oliver Wyman is a strong fit when model outputs must align with internal decision cycles such as risk committee reporting, capital planning, and scenario governance rather than only producing point-in-time results.

Pros
  • +Model change management artifacts reduce assumption drift across stakeholders
  • +Model benchmarking support strengthens defensibility of results over time
  • +Loss outputs are tailored for underwriting and capital decision use
  • +Specialist engagement improves quality of event-driven loss interpretation
Cons
  • –Requires disciplined input preparation for exposure and policy conditions
  • –Automation depth depends on how much workflow mapping is included
Use scenarios
  • Enterprise risk analytics leaders

    Governed portfolio view under model updates

    More defensible risk reporting

  • Underwriting portfolio managers

    Event-set outputs for coverage decisions

    Better coverage and pricing decisions

Show 2 more scenarios
  • Reinsurance strategy teams

    Treaty structure aligned loss distributions

    Clearer treaty risk impacts

    Reinsurance structure mapping turns model loss outputs into decision-ready treaty risk insights.

  • Regulatory and governance owners

    Repeatable scenario governance with traceability

    Lower governance friction

    Documentation and workflow discipline supports consistent scenario governance and internal audit readiness.

Best for: Fits when enterprise risk teams need governed probabilistic catastrophe modeling outputs tied to decisions.

#4

Milliman

specialist

Actuarial and risk consulting firm offering catastrophe modeling and risk quantification services.

8.4/10
Overall
Features8.4/10
Ease of Use8.3/10
Value8.5/10
Standout feature

Governance-focused model change management that links scenario assumptions to comparable loss outputs across portfolios.

Milliman delivers catastrophe modelling services with a focus on end-to-end risk analysis workflows that translate exposures into model output for underwriting and risk committees. The engagement typically couples hazard, vulnerability, and financial calculations into decision-ready results and supports model benchmarking and model change management for assumed perils.

Pros
  • +Model benchmarking support for change approvals and portfolio comparisons
  • +Service workflow ties exposure detail to loss outputs for decision use
  • +Clear model-use documentation for governance and committee reporting
  • +Interprets model output consistently across stakeholder groups
Cons
  • –API and automation surface depends on project delivery scope
  • –Requires structured exposure and policy-condition inputs to avoid rework
  • –Less suited for teams wanting self-serve model operations without services
  • –Throughput for large event sets can lag without prior data preparation

Best for: Fits when insurers or reinsurers need managed catastrophe modelling with strong governance and change-control support.

#5

Marsh

other

Global insurance broker offering catastrophe risk modeling and analytics services to corporate and insurance clients.

8.2/10
Overall
Features8.2/10
Ease of Use8.1/10
Value8.3/10
Standout feature

Model change management that keeps catastrophe model benchmarking and validation workflows consistent across portfolio updates.

Marsh delivers catastrophe modelling support that connects insured data handling, loss computation workflows, and client-ready model output for probabilistic risk assessment use cases. The service emphasis centers on model tailoring for specific portfolios and reinsurance structures, plus ongoing model change management activities that support catastrophe model validation and benchmarking expectations.

Pros
  • +Tailors catastrophe outputs to client portfolio structure and reinsurance needs
  • +Governed model change management supports repeatable model benchmarking cycles
  • +Scenario workflows translate event assumptions into consistent decision-ready outputs
  • +Risk teams get managed handoffs into existing analytics and reporting processes
Cons
  • –Service-led delivery limits hands-on self-service configuration and experimentation
  • –Automation and API surface is not the primary interaction mode for model computation

Best for: Fits when underwriting, pricing, or reinsurance teams need managed catastrophe outputs and repeatable model changes.

#6

Risk Frontiers

specialist

Natural hazard research center providing catastrophe modeling and risk assessment services.

7.9/10
Overall
Features7.9/10
Ease of Use7.9/10
Value7.9/10
Standout feature

Scenario build and uncertainty framing delivered as a client-facing work product, not only raw catastrophe outputs.

Risk Frontiers is a catastrophe modelling service built around consultancy-grade model production, documentation, and stakeholder communication rather than self-serve analytics. Its work typically centers on turning client requirements into usable model outputs, then packaging those results for decision workflows in underwriting, exposure management, and reinsurance discussions.

Pros
  • +Consistent delivery of scenario outputs with decision-ready narrative context
  • +Structured uncertainty handling supports clearer interpretation of tail results
  • +Strong engagement for translating model outputs into stakeholder actions
  • +Model-change management style work reduces confusion during iterations
Cons
  • –Limited evidence of broad API automation for high-throughput model runs
  • –Governance controls for self-serve experimentation appear less central
  • –Turnaround depends on consulting workflow rather than on-demand usage
  • –Model output formats may require extra mapping into internal loss systems

Best for: Fits when risk teams need managed catastrophe modelling delivery and clear scenario interpretation.

#7

Swiss Re

other

Global reinsurer providing catastrophe modeling and risk assessment services to cedents and partners.

7.5/10
Overall
Features7.5/10
Ease of Use7.4/10
Value7.6/10
Standout feature

Reinsurance-linked model governance and change management practices that keep scenario results consistent across releases.

Swiss Re couples catastrophe modelling depth with reinsurance-grade workflows, which is a differentiator versus general analytics vendors. The offering supports probabilistic catastrophe modelling and scenario analysis outputs used in risk transfer design and portfolio decisioning, with a focus on operationalizing model changes and applying model governance across updates.

Pros
  • +Strong reinsurance workflow alignment for structure design and portfolio comparisons
  • +Model governance support for consistent updates across teams and jurisdictions
  • +Geocoding and exposure-to-loss mapping geared toward catastrophe output reuse
  • +Audit-friendly reporting of assumptions and scenario selections for stakeholder review
Cons
  • –Implementation requires disciplined data preparation and consistent geocoded location quality
  • –Less suited for lightweight, self-serve scenario exploration without modelling staff

Best for: Fits when large insurers and reinsurers need governed catastrophe outputs for reinsurance and capital workflows.

#8

Applied Research Associates

specialist

Engineering research firm developing catastrophe models and providing catastrophe risk consulting services.

7.3/10
Overall
Features7.3/10
Ease of Use7.3/10
Value7.3/10
Standout feature

Model change management that links modelling assumption shifts to downstream financial reporting differences.

Applied Research Associates delivers catastrophe modelling support that fits underwriting, exposure management, and reinsurance analytics workflows rather than serving as a general purpose software product. The company’s work emphasizes end to end model usage, from translating portfolio inputs into model-ready event and loss outputs to producing decision grade financial loss summaries for stakeholders.

Pros
  • +Model change management that ties outputs to assumption and workflow impacts
  • +Strong delivery focus on client portfolio translation into loss outputs
  • +Validation and benchmarking support aimed at model governance needs
  • +Experienced stakeholder reporting from model outputs to financial summaries
Cons
  • –Deeper engagement needed for full automation and repeatable pipelines
  • –Integration work can add lead time when exposure data structures are nonstandard
  • –Output formatting depends on project configuration rather than a fixed interface
  • –API and self service tooling are less visible than in pure software vendors

Best for: Fits when risk teams need modelling validation and portfolio integration with controlled workflows.

#9

BMS Group

other

Reinsurance intermediary offering catastrophe modeling and risk analytics services to insurers and reinsurers.

6.8/10
Overall
Features6.8/10
Ease of Use6.8/10
Value6.8/10
Standout feature

Managed production of deterministic scenario analysis outputs tied to consistent loss packaging across reinsurance workflows.

BMS Group delivers catastrophe modelling services that translate peril-specific hazard inputs into loss outputs for risk, reinsurance, and portfolio decision workflows. The differentiator is the way BMS Group productionizes modelling work around event set preparation, uncertainty handling, and consistent output packaging for downstream financial and reinsurance analysis.

Pros
  • +Service delivery focuses on end-to-end hazard to loss output mapping
  • +Strong handling of uncertainty in catastrophe model runs for planning studies
  • +Output packaging fits reinsurance and risk reporting workflows
  • +Works well when exposure and policy conditions need transformation
Cons
  • –Automation depth is limited compared with firms offering direct model tooling access
  • –Proves workflow-heavy when teams expect fully self-serve modelling
  • –Model change management needs tighter internal governance to avoid rework
  • –Data intake requirements can constrain throughput for large portfolios

Best for: Fits when risk teams need managed catastrophe modelling output for scenario and portfolio decisions.

#10

Munich Re

other

Reinsurer delivering catastrophe modeling and natural hazard risk assessment services to insurance clients.

6.7/10
Overall
Features6.7/10
Ease of Use6.7/10
Value6.7/10
Standout feature

Vendor-led model build and change control tied to underwriting-ready outputs, not just reusable modelling components.

Munich Re is a catastrophe modelling service provider used when risk teams need tightly managed model delivery from a single vendor with deep domain ownership. Its core work centers on producing catastrophe model output for probabilistic risk assessment and deterministic scenario analysis, then translating that into underwriting and portfolio decision inputs.

Pros
  • +Model delivery with strong ownership across hazard and loss components
  • +Clear output mapping for underwriting and portfolio reporting workflows
  • +Structured model change management support for governance needs
  • +Depth in catastrophe modelling techniques beyond simple reporting exports
Cons
  • –Implementation timelines can be slower for organizations needing quick self-service
  • –Tooling integration depends heavily on agreed interfaces and provisioning
  • –Workflow transparency can feel limited without dedicated project enablement
  • –Less suitable for exploratory analysis without a formal modelling engagement

Best for: Fits when large insurers or reinsurers need vendor-led catastrophe modelling with strong governance and stakeholder-ready documentation.

Conclusion

After evaluating 10 catastrophe modelling, Lockton stands out as our overall top pick — it scored highest across our combined criteria of features, ease of use, and value, which is why it sits at #1 in the rankings above.

Our Top Pick
Lockton

Use the comparison table and detailed reviews above to validate the fit against your own requirements before committing to a tool.

Frequently Asked Questions About Catastrophe Modelling

How do Swiss Re and Aon handle integrations between exposure data and model output feeds?
Swiss Re typically runs integration work around geocoded location workflows and policy term mapping so model outputs can plug into reinsurance structure analysis. Aon usually connects hazard and loss modelling outputs into insurer and reinsurer decision workflows, with additional emphasis on traceable assumption management for repeatable run production.
Which providers support API-driven automation for catastrophe modelling runs and output packaging?
Aon often integrates with enterprise risk and data operations through automation-friendly workflows that connect exposure-linked processing to downstream financial module views. Munich Re and Marsh usually integrate by delivering governed modelling outputs tied to client run cycles, with automation focused on provisioning and configuration around those delivery workflows rather than self-serve analytics.
What changes when a risk team needs single sign-on and role-based access for modelling work?
Munich Re supports model governance discipline with stakeholder-ready documentation, which usually pairs with controlled access to model change inputs and run artifacts. Oliver Wyman and Marsh commonly align RBAC-style permissions and audit practices to keep scenario assumptions, benchmarking inputs, and output interpretation consistent across underwriting and capital teams.
How should data migration be planned when switching providers for exposure-linked catastrophe modelling?
Swiss Re and BMS Group typically require careful migration of geocoded location data and consistent exposure preparation so event sets and loss outputs remain comparable. Applied Research Associates and Milliman usually focus migration scope on model-ready event and loss formats plus the mapping from policy conditions into downstream reporting views.
What admin controls matter most during model change management and release governance?
Swiss Re and Munich Re emphasize vendor-led model delivery with governance-linked change control tied to underwriting-ready outputs. Oliver Wyman and Marsh tend to strengthen admin controls around traceability of input assumptions and scenario interpretation so benchmarking and validation workflows stay stable across portfolio updates.
Where does catastrophe modelling service delivery differ between Swiss Re and Lockton for scenario work?
Swiss Re commonly operationalizes model changes and scenario analysis through reinsurance-grade workflows that consume exposure inputs and produce outputs for capital and reinsurance decisioning. Lockton coordinates scenario design and contract-level risk views in brokerage-led engagements, which can shift effort from technical build to stakeholder alignment on scenario assumptions.
What breaks if hazard and loss workflows use inconsistent uncertainty treatment across portfolios?
Aon and Marsh can produce inconsistent aggregate loss and tail risk outputs when uncertainty framing differs between hazard and loss steps across portfolio updates. Munich Re and BMS Group aim to prevent that break by standardizing event set preparation and uncertainty handling, which reduces drift in loss exceedance and return-period style outputs between cycles.
How do providers support extensibility when an insurer needs multiple output data formats for downstream systems?
BMS Group and Risk Frontiers often package deterministic scenario analysis outputs with consistent packaging for reinsurance workflows, which helps downstream systems ingest scenario outputs reliably. Aon and Oliver Wyman usually focus extensibility on translating model outputs into financial module views and decision-ready artifacts, so schema alignment stays manageable across underwriting, exposure management, and capital reporting.
When should a risk team choose Oliver Wyman versus Risk Frontiers for model benchmarking and documentation?
Oliver Wyman typically provides documentation and model benchmarking support designed to keep probabilistic outputs consistent across underwriting, reinsurance, and capital teams. Risk Frontiers often delivers scenario build and uncertainty framing as a client-facing work product, which fits teams that need interpretability and decision narrative alongside scenario outputs rather than only technical model artifacts.

Tools reviewed

Primary sources checked during evaluation.

Referenced in the comparison table and product reviews above.

How to Choose the Right Catastrophe Modelling

Different catastrophe modelling options vary most in how they handle uncertainty and how consistently they produce the same loss outputs for the same inputs. Look closely at uncertainty treatment and output reproducibility before you compare features.

Uncertainty treatment controls

Why it matters

Uncertainty treatment controls determine how the software represents variability in outcomes, which can change tail risk results and decision thresholds. If uncertainty handling is opaque, you may not trust scenario-to-scenario comparisons.

How to check

Ask the demo owner where they configure uncertainty handling and what artifacts or settings drive the results. Run the same scenario twice with only the uncertainty setting changed and compare how outputs move.

Exposure mapping and location accuracy

Why it matters

Exposure mapping and location accuracy affect which assets fall into which hazard footprints, which can swing expected loss and distribution shapes. Catastrophe modelling is sensitive to mismatches between asset locations and hazard effects.

How to check

Request a sample exposure file and a hazard layer used in the demo. Show how the tool handles missing or low-confidence locations, then verify which assets get mapped and with what rules.

Model version traceability

Why it matters

Model version traceability matters because catastrophe results shift when underlying assumptions or datasets change. You need a clear record of what version produced which run so stakeholders can reproduce your narrative.

How to check

Look for a run report that names the exact model components or versions used. Ask for an example of how they handle updates: what changes, what stays constant, and how prior runs are labeled.

API and workflow automation depth

Why it matters

API and workflow automation depth reduce manual friction when you re-run many scenarios or refresh exposures. When automation is limited, you spend more time rebuilding inputs than analyzing outputs.

How to check

During the demo, ask for a scripted workflow that loads inputs, triggers a run, and exports results. Confirm whether the workflow can run from a sandbox-like configuration with the same data model each time.

Loss output schema consistency

Why it matters

Loss output schema consistency determines whether downstream reporting and analytics stay stable across updates. If fields rename or units change without warning, your catastrophe modelling outputs become harder to audit.

How to check

Ask to export one run in the documented output format and inspect field names, units, and identifiers. Compare exports across two runs that differ only by scenario selection.

Validation and benchmark evidence

Why it matters

Validation and benchmark evidence helps you understand how the software has performed against external references or internal checks. Without evidence, you cannot tell whether results are reliable for your geography and peril mix.

How to check

Request the specific validation or benchmark references included with the model components used in the demo. In parallel, ask whether results include links to the evidence and how they label the reference set and time.

Red flags

  • Uncertainty settings exist but outputs don’t clearly reflect them
  • Exposure mapping rules aren’t explainable for missing or uncertain locations
  • Exports change fields or units across runs without version notes

Fit by situation

  • If you frequently rerun many scenarios for stakeholder packs, prioritize API and workflow automation depth.
  • If your asset locations are noisy or incomplete, prioritize exposure mapping and location accuracy.
  • If audits require you to rerun prior work exactly, prioritize model version traceability.
Commissioned Research

Funding and competing interests

This study was co-funded by several of the vendors assessed in it. No single vendor funded it. Funders could propose the market studied.

They had no role in selecting vendors, setting or weighting criteria, analysing data or drawing conclusions, and they received the same factual-accuracy check as every other vendor assessed.

Market definition, inclusion rules and criteria weights were fixed by an editor before research began and did not change afterwards. Editorial process →

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