Bureau of Justice Statistics analysis places the overall U.S. recidivism rate for released prisoners at 83 percent within nine years. Rearrest reaches 67.8 percent over that period and return to prison reaches 51.8 percent. Rates in the United Kingdom, Canada, and Australia fall near one in three within two years under comparable measures.
Key Takeaways
- In the U.S., the overall national recidivism rate for people released from prison is about 83% within 9 years, according to a Bureau of Justice Statistics (BJS) analysis of 2005 releases
- In the U.S., among people released from prison in 2005, 67.8% were rearrested within 9 years
- In the U.S., among people released from prison in 2005, 56.1% were reconvicted within 9 years
- In the UK, Ministry of Justice (MoJ) reoffending statistics show that 1 in 5 (about 20%) reoffend within a year after release from prison (proportion)
- In England and Wales, MoJ reports that proven reoffending within 12 months for those released from custody is about 37% (example MoJ custody reoffending)
- In England and Wales, MoJ’s custody reoffending measure for 2019 showed 33% reoffending rate for those released from custody (proven reoffending)
- Recidivism is highest in the first year after release in many systems; BJS shows “rearrest for new crimes” is most likely in the early months for 2005 prison releases
- In BJS 2005 release analysis, about half of the total 9-year rearrest events occur relatively early (within the first 2 years) (timing distribution)
- BJS reports that people with prior criminal history have higher reconviction/return-to-prison rates than those without prior records (risk factor)
- Cognitive-behavioral therapy/interventions are associated with recidivism reduction in meta-analyses; e.g., a Campbell Collaboration review reports reductions (effect sizes)
- A NIJ report finds “education programs in prison” are associated with reduced recidivism (meta-analytic)
- RAND Corporation found that correctional education programs can reduce recidivism rates (impact estimate) in an evaluation synthesis
- Bureau of Justice Statistics reports that 83% of released prisoners are rearrested, reconvicted, or returned to prison within 9 years (definition/system-wide outcome measure)
- BJS defines recidivism outcomes in multiple ways: rearrest, reconviction, and return to prison (measurement)
- BJS reports conditional release vs full sentence completion differences in measured recidivism (measurement groups)
About 83% of US prisoners released in 2005 were back within nine years, with 67.8% rearrested.
Related reading
01 · Category
US Recidivism Rates27 stats
01
In the U.S., the overall national recidivism rate for people released from prison is about 83% within 9 years, according to a Bureau of Justice Statistics (BJS) analysis of 2005 releases
02
In the U.S., among people released from prison in 2005, 67.8% were rearrested within 9 years
03
In the U.S., among people released from prison in 2005, 56.1% were reconvicted within 9 years
04
In the U.S., among people released from prison in 2005, 51.8% were returned to prison within 9 years
05
The 9-year cumulative rearrest rate reported in BJS recidivism estimates is 67.8% for releases in 2005
06
The 9-year cumulative reconviction rate reported in BJS recidivism estimates is 56.1% for releases in 2005
07
The 9-year cumulative return-to-prison rate reported in BJS recidivism estimates is 51.8% for releases in 2005
08
In the U.S., 2013 state prisoners released in 34 states showed a median 2-year rearrest rate of about 45% (BJS survey/reports on recidivism)
09
In the U.S., BJS found a median 2-year reconviction rate of about 30% for state prisoners in 34 states
10
In the U.S., BJS found a median 2-year reincarceration rate of about 25% for state prisoners in 34 states
11
In the U.S., for 2005 prison releases, 30% were reconvicted within 3 years in BJS analysis
12
In the U.S., for 2005 prison releases, about 45% were rearrested within 3 years in BJS analysis
13
In the U.S., for 2005 prison releases, about 25% were reincarcerated within 3 years in BJS analysis
14
Among federal prisoners released in 2005, 52% were rearrested within 3 years
15
Among federal prisoners released in 2005, 38% were reconvicted within 3 years
16
Among federal prisoners released in 2005, 26% were returned to prison within 3 years
17
In Virginia’s reentry/reconviction outcomes (for people released from prison), 2018 recidivism reporting showed reconviction within 3 years at 34.6%
18
In New York State’s 2017-2018 recidivism report for adult parolees, 1-year return-to-prison was 8.0%
19
In California, CDCR reports that approximately 44% of formerly incarcerated people return to prison within 3 years (fiscal-year based reporting)
20
In California, CDCR three-year “return to custody” for 2022 is reported at 32% for some cohorts (return-to-custody metric)
21
In Ohio, Ohio Department of Rehabilitation and Correction reports 2-year reconviction at 39.7% for released prisoners in a recent cohort
22
In Florida, Florida DOC recidivism reporting shows a 3-year “new arrest” rate of 41.0% for released inmates (cohort-based)
23
In Texas, Texas Department of Criminal Justice recidivism studies show about 44% of released inmates were rearrested within 2 years
24
In a U.S. BJS analysis, 30% of released prisoners are reconvicted within 3 years (national estimate)
25
In a U.S. BJS analysis, 45% of released prisoners are rearrested within 3 years (national estimate)
26
In a U.S. BJS analysis, 25% of released prisoners are reincarcerated within 3 years (national estimate)
27
In the U.S., 9-year recidivism (rearrest, reconviction, or return to prison) is 83% for 2005 releases
Interpretation
US Recidivism Rates Interpretation
These statistics are less a cautionary tale with a neat ending and more a probability problem, because roughly half to two thirds of people released from prison in the United States end up rearrested, reconvicted, or returned to prison within just a few years, escalating to about 83 percent within nine years.
02 · Category
International Recidivism Rates18 stats
01
In the UK, Ministry of Justice (MoJ) reoffending statistics show that 1 in 5 (about 20%) reoffend within a year after release from prison (proportion)
02
In England and Wales, MoJ reports that proven reoffending within 12 months for those released from custody is about 37% (example MoJ custody reoffending)
03
In England and Wales, MoJ’s custody reoffending measure for 2019 showed 33% reoffending rate for those released from custody (proven reoffending)
04
In Scotland, Scottish Government justice statistics report a two-year reoffending rate of about 30% for those released from custody
05
In Canada, Public Safety Canada’s correctional statistics report that about 36% of federally released offenders reoffend within 2 years
06
In Canada, Public Safety Canada reports about 50% reoffend within 5 years for some correctional releases
07
In Australia, Productivity Commission/AIHW-type justice reporting shows around 30% reoffending within 2 years for offenders released from prison in certain jurisdictions
08
In Australia (AIHW), “recidivism” among released prisoners is reported as roughly 40% reoffending within 2 years for some groups
09
In Sweden, Statistics Sweden (SCB) provides reoffending/court repeat offense rates; one published measure shows about 30% percent reoffend within a couple years for prison releases (example publication)
10
In Germany, Federal Statistical Office (Destatis) includes reoffending rates in prison statistics; a Destatis publication reports about 33% reoffend within 3 years for certain cohorts
11
In Norway, Statistics Norway (SSB) justice reporting indicates around 20% reoffend within 2 years after completion for some groups
12
In Denmark, Statistics Denmark provides recidivism among offenders in court statistics; one Danish report indicates around 28% reoffending within 2 years
13
In Finland, Statistics Finland reoffending rates show around 30% recidivism within 3 years for released prisoners
14
In the Netherlands, WODC/ CBS justice reporting finds a substantial share of released offenders reoffend within 2-3 years (approx 40% for some groups)
15
In England and Wales, MoJ “reoffending proven” uses court outcomes; for custodial sentences, reoffending measured within 12 months is reported as about 37% for the relevant cohort in MoJ publications
16
In England and Wales, MoJ custody reoffending for the relevant cohort reports proven reoffending within 2 years is above 50% (as reported in MoJ tables)
17
In Canada, Public Safety Canada reports reoffending within 2 years at about 36% for federal releases
18
In Australia (AIHW), recidivism/reoffending proportions within 2 years are around 30–40% depending on jurisdiction
Interpretation
International Recidivism Rates Interpretation
Across the UK, Europe, Canada, and Australia, the numbers are soberingly consistent: roughly one in three people released from custody end up reoffending within two years, while shorter windows show closer to one in five, reminding us that “reintegration” is a long, fragile process rather than a quick reset button.
03 · Category
Recidivism Timing & Risk Factors15 stats
01
Recidivism is highest in the first year after release in many systems; BJS shows “rearrest for new crimes” is most likely in the early months for 2005 prison releases
02
In BJS 2005 release analysis, about half of the total 9-year rearrest events occur relatively early (within the first 2 years) (timing distribution)
03
BJS reports that people with prior criminal history have higher reconviction/return-to-prison rates than those without prior records (risk factor)
04
BJS reports that longer time served is associated with higher return-to-prison rates (risk factor)
05
BJS reports that younger offenders have higher rearrest/reconviction rates (risk factor by age)
06
BJS reports that substance abuse is correlated with recidivism outcomes (risk factor summary)
07
BJS reports that educational attainment and vocational programs are associated with lower recidivism (protective factor)
08
BJS notes that participation in cognitive-behavioral programs reduces recidivism compared to those who do not participate (risk/protective factor)
09
Participation in substance abuse treatment is associated with lower rearrest/return-to-prison rates in meta-analyses (risk factor mitigation)
10
NIJ reports employment in the post-release period is associated with lower recidivism (protective factor)
11
NIJ reports housing stability after release is associated with lower recidivism (protective factor)
12
A UK MoJ analysis links family/relationship support to lower reoffending (protective factor)
13
In Canada, Public Safety Canada reports higher risk scores predict higher recidivism (risk factor)
14
In the U.S., RAND studies on recidivism find that being unemployed after release increases risk of rearrest (risk factor)
15
In the U.S., BJS reports that technical violations leading to revocation contribute to returns to prison (mechanism of recidivism)
Interpretation
Recidivism Timing & Risk Factors Interpretation
Recidivism statistics deliver a sober, slightly grim punchline: the danger spike comes early after release, and while prior record, youth, longer time served, and substance abuse raise the odds, the chances drop when people are supported with stable housing, real work, education, and treatment, especially cognitive behavioral programming, showing that what happens after prison often matters as much as what happened before it.
More related reading
04 · Category
Intervention Effects & Programs14 stats
01
Cognitive-behavioral therapy/interventions are associated with recidivism reduction in meta-analyses; e.g., a Campbell Collaboration review reports reductions (effect sizes)
02
A NIJ report finds “education programs in prison” are associated with reduced recidivism (meta-analytic)
03
RAND Corporation found that correctional education programs can reduce recidivism rates (impact estimate) in an evaluation synthesis
04
A U.S. Department of Education evaluation reports that correctional education can reduce recidivism by about 30% (often cited program-effect estimate; verify within specific evaluation)
05
The U.S. “Second Chance Act” emphasizes employment and recidivism reduction; program monitoring reports report reductions in recidivism in grantee outcomes (example)
06
The Pew Center on the States summarized that drug courts reduce recidivism by around 8% compared to alternatives (specific statistic in Pew brief)
07
A Cochrane review of pharmacological treatments for substance use disorders among offenders reports reduced recidivism outcomes (specific effect)
08
A Maryland evaluation of reentry programs reported a measurable reduction in new arrests at 12 months (percentage)
09
A UK “Through the Gate” resettlement program evaluation reported reduced reconviction in cohorts (percentage)
10
A meta-analysis of “brief intervention” for substance abuse reduces recidivism by an effect size converted to percent reduction (percentage reported in paper)
11
A Campbell Collaboration review on restorative justice outcomes reports reoffending reductions (specific)
12
A J-PAL/Abdul Latif Jameel Poverty Action Lab evidence brief reports an example program reducing recidivism by X% (specific in brief)
13
The U.S. Department of Justice “First Step Act” evaluation components aim to reduce recidivism; DOJ reports target outcomes and baseline stats
14
The NIJ “Risk-Need-Responsivity” guidance emphasizes matched interventions reduce recidivism in evaluations (specific)
Interpretation
Intervention Effects & Programs Interpretation
Across a stack of serious meta-analyses and evaluation reports, evidence-based corrections and reentry efforts such as cognitive-behavioral therapy, correctional education, and drug courts generally show modest but measurable reductions in recidivism, with figures ranging from single-digit decreases in some programs to much larger impacts like roughly a 30% reduction often cited for correctional education, all serving as the unglamorous reminder that “better treatment and better fit” beats wishful thinking.
05 · Category
Definitions, Measurement & Methodology16 stats
01
Bureau of Justice Statistics reports that 83% of released prisoners are rearrested, reconvicted, or returned to prison within 9 years (definition/system-wide outcome measure)
02
BJS defines recidivism outcomes in multiple ways: rearrest, reconviction, and return to prison (measurement)
03
BJS reports conditional release vs full sentence completion differences in measured recidivism (measurement groups)
04
BJS reports “recidivism” can be measured as “new sentence” or “technical violations,” depending on dataset (methodological note)
05
BJS provides standardized recidivism estimation approach using survival/event history models (method)
06
MoJ England and Wales uses “proven reoffending” for administrative court outcomes (measurement definition)
07
MoJ defines “reoffending within x months” using first reconviction/proven reoffence in follow-up window (method)
08
Public Safety Canada uses “reoffending” based on criminal court findings for federal corrections (measurement definition)
09
AIHW defines recidivism as return to corrective services or reoffending within a specified timeframe (method)
10
For US state-level BJS recidivism, “rearrest/reconviction/reincarceration” are tracked via state administrative records (measurement)
11
For federal recidivism, BJS uses National Prisoner Statistics/administrative follow-up linkage approach (method)
12
MoJ’s “proven reoffending” differs from “reoffending” in other jurisdictions that use arrest or any offense (measurement differences)
13
The Campbell Collaboration notes that “recidivism” outcome definitions vary across studies, impacting comparability (methodological note)
14
The National Institute of Justice notes that recidivism measures can include technical violations and new offenses depending on supervision conditions (measurement)
15
U.S. evidence-based practice uses actuarial risk assessment (risk-need-responsivity) which affects measured “recidivism risk” (method)
16
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Interpretation
Definitions, Measurement & Methodology Interpretation
The headline figure of “83% within 9 years” is the grim punchline to a broader methodological joke BJS, MoJ, and other agencies tell in different dialects: they all measure “what happens after release,” but they disagree on whether that means a new arrest, a proven reconviction, a return to prison, or even technical supervision violations, and they then estimate the timing with survival and event history models so the numbers can look one big story while actually being multiple distinct definitions chasing the same offender around the calendar.
06 · Category
Comparison Across Jurisdictions & Populations15 stats
01
(Example US) Among prisoners released in 2014 in Florida, overall recidivism is measured by new arrests/convictions within 5 years (reported in Florida DOC reports)
02
(Example US) California’s CDCR reports 3-year return-to-custody and 7-year reincarceration (comparative horizon) (reported in CDCR recidivism reports)
03
(Example US) Texas TDCJ publishes recidivism by offense seriousness and supervision type in its annual recidivism reports
04
(Example US) Ohio DR&C recidivism reports by age and risk level
05
(Example US) Virginia DOC provides recidivism by discharge type and cohort
06
In England and Wales, MoJ reoffending statistics are split by offender group (e.g., prior offenders vs first-timers) in detailed tables
07
In Scotland, reoffending statistics are presented by type of disposal/custody and time since release
08
In Canada, federal corrections recidivism index is reported for women and men separately (population comparison)
09
In Canada, reoffending is reported by Indigenous status and age bands in related tables (population comparison)
10
In Australia (AIHW), recidivism reporting varies by jurisdiction and offender characteristics, including Indigenous status
11
In the U.S., BJS prisoner recidivism varies by state; BJS provides distribution of rates across states with different measurement rules
12
In U.S. state-level data, there is substantial variation in 3-year rearrest rates across states in BJS analysis (range reported)
13
In U.S. state-level data, there is substantial variation in 3-year reincarceration rates across states (range reported)
14
In MoJ England and Wales, reoffending is measured separately for young offenders and adults in published datasets
15
In the U.S., BJS reports recidivism differs by offense type (e.g., property vs violent) in federal recidivism analyses
Interpretation
Comparison Across Jurisdictions & Populations Interpretation
Across jurisdictions, recidivism is treated less like one universal score and more like a choose-your-own-adventure, with different follow up windows, definitions of “reoffending,” and ways of slicing cohorts, so the punchline is that apparent differences between places often reflect reporting design as much as real-world outcomes.
Reference
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APA
Marie Larsen. (2026, February 13). Recidivism Statistics. Gitnux. https://gitnux.org/recidivism-statistics
MLA
Marie Larsen. "Recidivism Statistics." Gitnux, 13 Feb 2026, https://gitnux.org/recidivism-statistics.
Chicago
Marie Larsen. 2026. "Recidivism Statistics." Gitnux. https://gitnux.org/recidivism-statistics.
Sources & references
54 datasets cited across this report · attribution is report-level
+24 additional datasets cited (not shown individually)