If you think your project budget is safe, consider this: from Boston's Big Dig overrunning by 220% to the Sydney Opera House costing 1,400% more than planned, the alarming global statistics on cost overruns reveal that blowing the budget isn't the exception—it's the overwhelming and expensive rule.
Key Takeaways
- Average cost overrun for megaprojects worldwide is 50% above initial budgets across 16,000 projects analyzed from 1927-2017
- In UK construction projects, 90% exceed budgets by an average of 54%
- Boston's Big Dig highway project overran costs by 220% from $2.8B to $14.8B
- 70% of large IT projects fail or overrun budgets significantly per Standish Group
- UK NHS National IT Program cost £12.4B vs planned £2.3B, 439% overrun
- FBI Virtual Case File system abandoned after $170M overrun
- European railway signaling projects average 80% overrun
- California's High-Speed Rail from $33B to $128B, 288% overrun
- UK's HS2 rail from £32.7B to £100B+, 206% overrun
- Average offshore wind farm overruns 20-30% per IRENA
- UK's Hinkley Point C nuclear from £18B to £35B, 94% overrun
- Vogtle nuclear plant US Units 3&4 from $14B to $35B, 150% overrun
- F-35 Joint Strike Fighter US from $233B to $428B lifetime, 84% overrun
- UK's Queen Elizabeth carriers from £3.9B to £6.2B, 59% overrun
- US Littoral Combat Ship program $37B vs $25B planned, 48% overrun
Megaprojects worldwide typically exceed their budgets by a shocking 50 percent on average.
Construction
1Average cost overrun for megaprojects worldwide is 50% above initial budgets across 16,000 projects analyzed from 1927-2017
Verified2In UK construction projects, 90% exceed budgets by an average of 54%
Verified3Boston's Big Dig highway project overran costs by 220% from $2.8B to $14.8B
Verified4Scottish Parliament building cost escalated from £40M to £431M, a 977% overrun
Directional5Sydney Opera House budget overrun reached 1,400% from AUD$7M to AUD$102M
Single source6Berlin Brandenburg Airport costs rose from €2.83B to €7.27B, 157% overrun
Verified7Montreal Olympic Stadium from CAD$134M to CAD$1.5B, 1,019% overrun
Verified8Denver International Airport baggage system added $560M overrun
Verified9UK Crossrail project overrun by £2.2B to £18.8B total
Directional10Panama Canal expansion from $5.25B to $7.2B, 37% overrun
Single source11Abu Dhabi airport midfield terminal from $2.5B to $3.8B, 52% overrun
Verified12Kansai International Airport Japan cost 3x initial estimate due to subsidence
Verified13Millennium Dome London from £399M to £789M, 98% overrun
Verified14Runway 4 at Heathrow added £1B overrun
Directional15Post-Stadium in Netherlands from €110M to €427M, 288% overrun
Single source16Hamburg Elbphilharmonie from €77M to €870M, 1,029% overrun
Verified17National Theatre Oslo from NOK 460M to NOK 6.5B, 1,313% overrun
Verified18Sagrada Familia Barcelona ongoing overruns exceed 200% from original plans
Verified19Wembley Stadium UK from £445M to £798M, 79% overrun
Directional20Allianz Arena Munich from €272M to €340M, 25% overrun
Single source21Beijing Capital Airport Terminal 3 from CNY 12.8B to CNY 27.4B, 114% overrun
Verified22Federation Tower Moscow tallest building overruns by 50% to $1.5B
Verified23Burj Khalifa Dubai minor overruns but total cost $1.5B vs $800M planned
Verified24Shanghai Tower from CNY 14B to CNY 23B, 64% overrun
Directional25One World Trade Center NYC from $3.1B to $3.9B, 26% overrun
Single source26Channel Tunnel from £4.7B to £12B, 155% overrun
Verified27Hong Kong-Zhuhai-Macau Bridge from HKD 83B to HKD 120B, 45% overrun
Verified28Gotthard Base Tunnel Switzerland from CHF 9.1B to CHF 12.2B, 34% overrun
Verified29Olkiluoto 3 nuclear plant Finland from €3B to €11B, 267% overrun
Directional30Average US highway projects overrun by 25%
Single sourceConstruction Interpretation
History's grandest monuments are not the cathedrals or stadiums we build, but the towering, global monument to optimism bias and shifting scope, lovingly funded by taxpayers who were promised a shed and got a Sistine Chapel, minus the ceiling but with a 1,400% surcharge.
Defense
1F-35 Joint Strike Fighter US from $233B to $428B lifetime, 84% overrun
Verified2UK's Queen Elizabeth carriers from £3.9B to £6.2B, 59% overrun
Verified3US Littoral Combat Ship program $37B vs $25B planned, 48% overrun
Verified4Australia's Collins class submarines total overrun AUD$5B+
Directional5US Zumwalt destroyers from $9.6B to $24B for 3 ships, 150% overrun
Single source6UK's Type 45 destroyers £1B overrun per ship average
Verified7French Charles de Gaulle carrier overrun 200% to €3B
Verified8US Virginia class subs average 15% overrun per boat
Verified9India's INS Vikrant carrier from INR 60B to INR 200B+, 233% overrun
Directional10US Ground Combat Vehicle canceled after $5B overrun
Single source11UK's Astute submarines £2B overrun total
Verified12Russian Admiral Kuznetsov carrier endless overruns exceed 300%
Verified13US KC-46 tanker from $44B to $58B program-wide, 32% overrun
Verified14Israel's Merkava tank upgrades overrun 50%
Directional15Eurofighter Typhoon development overrun €20B+
Single source16US Future Vertical Lift overrun risks $100B
Verified17UK's Warrior vehicle upgrade canceled after £800M overrun
Verified18French Rafale fighters overrun €10B in development
Verified19US B-21 Raider bomber program projected 50% overrun to $203B
Directional20Australia's Hunter class frigates costs up 27% to AUD$35B
Single source21Canadian CCSG class destroyers overrun CAD$10B+
Verified22South Korea KDX destroyers overrun 40%
Verified23US Army's Integrated Air & Missile Defense overrun $1B
Verified24UK's Ajax vehicles from £3.5B to £5.5B, 57% overrun
Directional25Brazil's Prosub submarines overrun 100% to BRL 40B
Single source26Turkey's TF-X fighter projected overruns 50%
Verified27US Space Force GPS III from $3.7B to $7.2B, 95% overrun
Verified28NATO AWACS upgrades overrun €500M
Verified29US Missile Defense Agency programs average 30% overrun
Directional30UK's Type 26 frigates costs up 10% to £8B per ship pair
Single sourceDefense Interpretation
These figures collectively suggest that, in the world of defense procurement, the most reliable weapon system is the budget overrun.
Energy Sector
1Average offshore wind farm overruns 20-30% per IRENA
Verified2UK's Hinkley Point C nuclear from £18B to £35B, 94% overrun
Verified3Vogtle nuclear plant US Units 3&4 from $14B to $35B, 150% overrun
Verified4Flamanville EPR France from €3.3B to €19.5B, 491% overrun
Directional5Sizewell C UK nuclear projected overrun to £46B from £20B
Single source6Barakah UAE nuclear from $20B to $25B, 25% overrun
Verified7Olkiluoto 3 Finland from €3B to €12.5B, 317% overrun
Verified8Angra 3 Brazil nuclear endless overruns exceed 100%
Verified9UK's Moorside nuclear canceled after cost doubling to £40B
Directional10South Texas Project expansion abandoned after overruns
Single source11Leviathan gas field Israel from $6.8B to $10B+, 47% overrun
Verified12Ichthys LNG Australia from $34B to $48B, 41% overrun
Verified13Prelude FLNG Shell from $12B to $17B, 42% overrun
Verified14Gorgon LNG Australia total $54B vs $43B planned, 26% overrun
Directional15Wheatstone LNG from $29B to $35B, 21% overrun
Single source16Exxon Baytown refinery expansion $10B overrun risk
Verified17Rovuma LNG Mozambique costs doubled to $20B
Verified18Qatar North Field expansion $50B with 20% overrun risks
Verified19Tengiz oil field Kazakhstan from $36.5B to $45B+, 23% overrun
Directional20Kashagan oil Kazakhstan overruns total $50B extra
Single source21Sakhalin-2 LNG Russia from $20B to $25B, 25% overrun
Verified22Yamal LNG Russia $27B vs $20B, 35% overrun
Verified23Curtis Island LNG Australia average 30% overruns
VerifiedEnergy Sector Interpretation
When you set out to build a cathedral of energy infrastructure, the budget is merely a pious opening prayer whispered before the inevitable avalanche of expensive reality.
IT Projects
170% of large IT projects fail or overrun budgets significantly per Standish Group
Verified2UK NHS National IT Program cost £12.4B vs planned £2.3B, 439% overrun
Verified3FBI Virtual Case File system abandoned after $170M overrun
Verified4Denver Airport automated baggage system $560M overrun and failure
Directional5US Air Force logistics system overrun by 300% to $1B
Single source6California's Court Management System from $260M to $2B, 669% overrun
Verified7UK's Libra project for courts overrun by 200% to £390M
Verified8SAP implementation at Lidl Germany €500M overrun
Verified9US Navy's ERP system overrun by $1B
Directional10Queensland Health payroll system AUD$1.2B overrun
Single source11LA County Health MIS from $53M to $1.4B, 2,545% overrun
Verified12Boeing 787 Dreamliner software overruns contributed to $32B total overrun
Verified13Target Canada ERP failure cost $2.1B due to overruns
Verified14US VA healthcare system modernization $16B overrun ongoing
Directional15Home Office UK e-borders overrun by £1.5B
Single source16US IRS modernization programs average 200% overruns
Verified17Siemens Compass project overrun €100M
Verified18Nike ERP failure $400M overrun
Verified19Hershey's ERP implementation overrun led to $100M losses
Directional20HP payroll system overrun $100M+
Single source21Waste Management SAP failure $100M overrun
Verified22Whirlpool ERP overrun disrupted production, cost $100M+
Verified23National Australia Bank CRM overrun AUD$180M
Verified24US Census Bureau 2020 IT systems overrun $500M
Directional25Average enterprise software project overruns by 78% per McKinsey
Single source2652% of IT projects exceed budget by over 50%
Verified27Standish Group 2020: only 35% IT projects on budget
VerifiedIT Projects Interpretation
This spectacularly expensive parade of IT catastrophes proves that while technology promises to move us at the speed of light, our planning still operates at the pace of a three-legged donkey.
Transportation
1European railway signaling projects average 80% overrun
Verified2California's High-Speed Rail from $33B to $128B, 288% overrun
Verified3UK's HS2 rail from £32.7B to £100B+, 206% overrun
Verified4Crossrail/Elizabeth Line London from £15B to £19.5B, 30% overrun
Directional5Northeast Corridor US rail upgrades overrun by 50%
Single source6Berlin U-Bahn extension overrun 100% to €1B
Verified7Perth Airport rail link Australia AUD$1.9B overrun
Verified8Toronto Transit Spadina extension CAD$3.6B vs $2.6B, 38% overrun
Verified9Copenhagen Metro Circle Line from DKK 15.5B to DKK 21.3B, 37% overrun
Directional10Sydney Metro Northwest from AUD$8.3B to AUD$15B projected, 81% overrun
Single source11Grand Paris Express total overrun €5B+
Verified12Mumbai Metro Line 3 from INR 21K Cr to INR 37K Cr, 76% overrun
Verified13LA Metro Purple Line overrun 50% to $9.5B
Verified14Texas Central HSR project costs doubled to $30B
Directional15UK Northern Powerhouse Rail costs up 50% to £17B
Single source16Brightline West HSR from $3.5B to $12B, 243% overrun
Verified17Nuremberg Metro U3 overrun 40% to €1.2B
Verified18Oslo Metro Fornebu Line NOK 20B vs NOK 14B, 43% overrun
Verified19Thessaloniki Metro from €1.2B to €2.4B, 100% overrun
Directional20Lyon Metro extension overrun 30% to €1B
Single source21Seattle Sound Transit Link overrun 70% to $15B
Verified22Vancouver SkyTrain Surrey extension CAD$4B vs $2.8B, 43% overrun
Verified23Madrid Calle 30 ring road from €4B to €6B, 50% overrun
Verified24Oresund Bridge Denmark-Sweden from DKK 13B to DKK 20B, 54% overrun
Directional25Boston Green Line Extension $3B vs $1.6B planned, 88% overrun
Single sourceTransportation Interpretation
From Melbourne to Mumbai and London to LA, the data screams that when it comes to major infrastructure, the only thing more predictable than groundbreaking is the subsequent budget-busting news conference.
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