If you think your project budget is safe, consider this: from Boston's Big Dig overrunning by 220% to the Sydney Opera House costing 1,400% more than planned, the alarming global statistics on cost overruns reveal that blowing the budget isn't the exception—it's the overwhelming and expensive rule.
Key Takeaways
- Average cost overrun for megaprojects worldwide is 50% above initial budgets across 16,000 projects analyzed from 1927-2017
- In UK construction projects, 90% exceed budgets by an average of 54%
- Boston's Big Dig highway project overran costs by 220% from $2.8B to $14.8B
- 70% of large IT projects fail or overrun budgets significantly per Standish Group
- UK NHS National IT Program cost £12.4B vs planned £2.3B, 439% overrun
- FBI Virtual Case File system abandoned after $170M overrun
- European railway signaling projects average 80% overrun
- California's High-Speed Rail from $33B to $128B, 288% overrun
- UK's HS2 rail from £32.7B to £100B+, 206% overrun
- Average offshore wind farm overruns 20-30% per IRENA
- UK's Hinkley Point C nuclear from £18B to £35B, 94% overrun
- Vogtle nuclear plant US Units 3&4 from $14B to $35B, 150% overrun
- F-35 Joint Strike Fighter US from $233B to $428B lifetime, 84% overrun
- UK's Queen Elizabeth carriers from £3.9B to £6.2B, 59% overrun
- US Littoral Combat Ship program $37B vs $25B planned, 48% overrun
Megaprojects worldwide typically exceed their budgets by a shocking 50 percent on average.
Construction
- Average cost overrun for megaprojects worldwide is 50% above initial budgets across 16,000 projects analyzed from 1927-2017
- In UK construction projects, 90% exceed budgets by an average of 54%
- Boston's Big Dig highway project overran costs by 220% from $2.8B to $14.8B
- Scottish Parliament building cost escalated from £40M to £431M, a 977% overrun
- Sydney Opera House budget overrun reached 1,400% from AUD$7M to AUD$102M
- Berlin Brandenburg Airport costs rose from €2.83B to €7.27B, 157% overrun
- Montreal Olympic Stadium from CAD$134M to CAD$1.5B, 1,019% overrun
- Denver International Airport baggage system added $560M overrun
- UK Crossrail project overrun by £2.2B to £18.8B total
- Panama Canal expansion from $5.25B to $7.2B, 37% overrun
- Abu Dhabi airport midfield terminal from $2.5B to $3.8B, 52% overrun
- Kansai International Airport Japan cost 3x initial estimate due to subsidence
- Millennium Dome London from £399M to £789M, 98% overrun
- Runway 4 at Heathrow added £1B overrun
- Post-Stadium in Netherlands from €110M to €427M, 288% overrun
- Hamburg Elbphilharmonie from €77M to €870M, 1,029% overrun
- National Theatre Oslo from NOK 460M to NOK 6.5B, 1,313% overrun
- Sagrada Familia Barcelona ongoing overruns exceed 200% from original plans
- Wembley Stadium UK from £445M to £798M, 79% overrun
- Allianz Arena Munich from €272M to €340M, 25% overrun
- Beijing Capital Airport Terminal 3 from CNY 12.8B to CNY 27.4B, 114% overrun
- Federation Tower Moscow tallest building overruns by 50% to $1.5B
- Burj Khalifa Dubai minor overruns but total cost $1.5B vs $800M planned
- Shanghai Tower from CNY 14B to CNY 23B, 64% overrun
- One World Trade Center NYC from $3.1B to $3.9B, 26% overrun
- Channel Tunnel from £4.7B to £12B, 155% overrun
- Hong Kong-Zhuhai-Macau Bridge from HKD 83B to HKD 120B, 45% overrun
- Gotthard Base Tunnel Switzerland from CHF 9.1B to CHF 12.2B, 34% overrun
- Olkiluoto 3 nuclear plant Finland from €3B to €11B, 267% overrun
- Average US highway projects overrun by 25%
Construction Interpretation
History's grandest monuments are not the cathedrals or stadiums we build, but the towering, global monument to optimism bias and shifting scope, lovingly funded by taxpayers who were promised a shed and got a Sistine Chapel, minus the ceiling but with a 1,400% surcharge.
Defense
- F-35 Joint Strike Fighter US from $233B to $428B lifetime, 84% overrun
- UK's Queen Elizabeth carriers from £3.9B to £6.2B, 59% overrun
- US Littoral Combat Ship program $37B vs $25B planned, 48% overrun
- Australia's Collins class submarines total overrun AUD$5B+
- US Zumwalt destroyers from $9.6B to $24B for 3 ships, 150% overrun
- UK's Type 45 destroyers £1B overrun per ship average
- French Charles de Gaulle carrier overrun 200% to €3B
- US Virginia class subs average 15% overrun per boat
- India's INS Vikrant carrier from INR 60B to INR 200B+, 233% overrun
- US Ground Combat Vehicle canceled after $5B overrun
- UK's Astute submarines £2B overrun total
- Russian Admiral Kuznetsov carrier endless overruns exceed 300%
- US KC-46 tanker from $44B to $58B program-wide, 32% overrun
- Israel's Merkava tank upgrades overrun 50%
- Eurofighter Typhoon development overrun €20B+
- US Future Vertical Lift overrun risks $100B
- UK's Warrior vehicle upgrade canceled after £800M overrun
- French Rafale fighters overrun €10B in development
- US B-21 Raider bomber program projected 50% overrun to $203B
- Australia's Hunter class frigates costs up 27% to AUD$35B
- Canadian CCSG class destroyers overrun CAD$10B+
- South Korea KDX destroyers overrun 40%
- US Army's Integrated Air & Missile Defense overrun $1B
- UK's Ajax vehicles from £3.5B to £5.5B, 57% overrun
- Brazil's Prosub submarines overrun 100% to BRL 40B
- Turkey's TF-X fighter projected overruns 50%
- US Space Force GPS III from $3.7B to $7.2B, 95% overrun
- NATO AWACS upgrades overrun €500M
- US Missile Defense Agency programs average 30% overrun
- UK's Type 26 frigates costs up 10% to £8B per ship pair
Defense Interpretation
These figures collectively suggest that, in the world of defense procurement, the most reliable weapon system is the budget overrun.
Energy Sector
- Average offshore wind farm overruns 20-30% per IRENA
- UK's Hinkley Point C nuclear from £18B to £35B, 94% overrun
- Vogtle nuclear plant US Units 3&4 from $14B to $35B, 150% overrun
- Flamanville EPR France from €3.3B to €19.5B, 491% overrun
- Sizewell C UK nuclear projected overrun to £46B from £20B
- Barakah UAE nuclear from $20B to $25B, 25% overrun
- Olkiluoto 3 Finland from €3B to €12.5B, 317% overrun
- Angra 3 Brazil nuclear endless overruns exceed 100%
- UK's Moorside nuclear canceled after cost doubling to £40B
- South Texas Project expansion abandoned after overruns
- Leviathan gas field Israel from $6.8B to $10B+, 47% overrun
- Ichthys LNG Australia from $34B to $48B, 41% overrun
- Prelude FLNG Shell from $12B to $17B, 42% overrun
- Gorgon LNG Australia total $54B vs $43B planned, 26% overrun
- Wheatstone LNG from $29B to $35B, 21% overrun
- Exxon Baytown refinery expansion $10B overrun risk
- Rovuma LNG Mozambique costs doubled to $20B
- Qatar North Field expansion $50B with 20% overrun risks
- Tengiz oil field Kazakhstan from $36.5B to $45B+, 23% overrun
- Kashagan oil Kazakhstan overruns total $50B extra
- Sakhalin-2 LNG Russia from $20B to $25B, 25% overrun
- Yamal LNG Russia $27B vs $20B, 35% overrun
- Curtis Island LNG Australia average 30% overruns
Energy Sector Interpretation
When you set out to build a cathedral of energy infrastructure, the budget is merely a pious opening prayer whispered before the inevitable avalanche of expensive reality.
IT Projects
- 70% of large IT projects fail or overrun budgets significantly per Standish Group
- UK NHS National IT Program cost £12.4B vs planned £2.3B, 439% overrun
- FBI Virtual Case File system abandoned after $170M overrun
- Denver Airport automated baggage system $560M overrun and failure
- US Air Force logistics system overrun by 300% to $1B
- California's Court Management System from $260M to $2B, 669% overrun
- UK's Libra project for courts overrun by 200% to £390M
- SAP implementation at Lidl Germany €500M overrun
- US Navy's ERP system overrun by $1B
- Queensland Health payroll system AUD$1.2B overrun
- LA County Health MIS from $53M to $1.4B, 2,545% overrun
- Boeing 787 Dreamliner software overruns contributed to $32B total overrun
- Target Canada ERP failure cost $2.1B due to overruns
- US VA healthcare system modernization $16B overrun ongoing
- Home Office UK e-borders overrun by £1.5B
- US IRS modernization programs average 200% overruns
- Siemens Compass project overrun €100M
- Nike ERP failure $400M overrun
- Hershey's ERP implementation overrun led to $100M losses
- HP payroll system overrun $100M+
- Waste Management SAP failure $100M overrun
- Whirlpool ERP overrun disrupted production, cost $100M+
- National Australia Bank CRM overrun AUD$180M
- US Census Bureau 2020 IT systems overrun $500M
- Average enterprise software project overruns by 78% per McKinsey
- 52% of IT projects exceed budget by over 50%
- Standish Group 2020: only 35% IT projects on budget
IT Projects Interpretation
This spectacularly expensive parade of IT catastrophes proves that while technology promises to move us at the speed of light, our planning still operates at the pace of a three-legged donkey.
Transportation
- European railway signaling projects average 80% overrun
- California's High-Speed Rail from $33B to $128B, 288% overrun
- UK's HS2 rail from £32.7B to £100B+, 206% overrun
- Crossrail/Elizabeth Line London from £15B to £19.5B, 30% overrun
- Northeast Corridor US rail upgrades overrun by 50%
- Berlin U-Bahn extension overrun 100% to €1B
- Perth Airport rail link Australia AUD$1.9B overrun
- Toronto Transit Spadina extension CAD$3.6B vs $2.6B, 38% overrun
- Copenhagen Metro Circle Line from DKK 15.5B to DKK 21.3B, 37% overrun
- Sydney Metro Northwest from AUD$8.3B to AUD$15B projected, 81% overrun
- Grand Paris Express total overrun €5B+
- Mumbai Metro Line 3 from INR 21K Cr to INR 37K Cr, 76% overrun
- LA Metro Purple Line overrun 50% to $9.5B
- Texas Central HSR project costs doubled to $30B
- UK Northern Powerhouse Rail costs up 50% to £17B
- Brightline West HSR from $3.5B to $12B, 243% overrun
- Nuremberg Metro U3 overrun 40% to €1.2B
- Oslo Metro Fornebu Line NOK 20B vs NOK 14B, 43% overrun
- Thessaloniki Metro from €1.2B to €2.4B, 100% overrun
- Lyon Metro extension overrun 30% to €1B
- Seattle Sound Transit Link overrun 70% to $15B
- Vancouver SkyTrain Surrey extension CAD$4B vs $2.8B, 43% overrun
- Madrid Calle 30 ring road from €4B to €6B, 50% overrun
- Oresund Bridge Denmark-Sweden from DKK 13B to DKK 20B, 54% overrun
- Boston Green Line Extension $3B vs $1.6B planned, 88% overrun
Transportation Interpretation
From Melbourne to Mumbai and London to LA, the data screams that when it comes to major infrastructure, the only thing more predictable than groundbreaking is the subsequent budget-busting news conference.
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