Pancreas Cancer Statistics

GITNUXREPORT 2026

Pancreas Cancer Statistics

U.S. disparities stand out sharply, with Black patients facing higher pancreatic cancer incidence and mortality than White patients, while newer trial results show how much outcomes can swing from one regimen to the next. From 5-year overall survival of 49% with modified FOLFIRINOX versus 36% with gemcitabine in the PRODIGE 24 CCTG PA.6 trial to adjuvant gemcitabine extending median overall survival to 54.4 months versus 35.0 months with observation in ESPAC 3, this page connects survival contrasts with key biomarkers and diagnostic pitfalls like CA19 9 false negatives.

33 statistics33 sources4 sections7 min readUpdated 17 days ago

Key Statistics

Statistic 1

Black people have higher pancreatic cancer incidence and mortality than White people in the U.S.; SEER reports higher age-adjusted rates (racial disparity).

Statistic 2

Smoking increases the risk of pancreatic cancer by about 20%–30% compared with never smokers (American Cancer Society risk factor statement with quantitative range).

Statistic 3

Obesity is associated with an increased risk of pancreatic cancer; one meta-analysis reported a relative risk of 1.19 per 5 kg/m2 increase in BMI (quantitative result).

Statistic 4

Type 2 diabetes increases the risk of pancreatic cancer by about 60% (relative risk ~1.6) in meta-analytic estimates (quantitative effect).

Statistic 5

Chronic pancreatitis is associated with an estimated 2- to 10-fold increased risk of pancreatic cancer (risk quantification in reviews).

Statistic 6

Family history of pancreatic cancer increases risk; individuals with a first-degree relative have an estimated relative risk around 2–3 (quantitative statement in reviews).

Statistic 7

About 5%–10% of pancreatic cancer cases are attributable to hereditary genetic factors (quantitative estimate in reviews).

Statistic 8

Alcohol consumption is associated with increased pancreatic cancer risk; heavy drinking (≥3 drinks/day) was associated with a relative risk about 1.5 versus non-drinkers in a large cohort analysis.

Statistic 9

Physical inactivity is associated with increased pancreatic cancer risk; a meta-analysis reported a relative risk of about 1.27 for high vs low activity categories.

Statistic 10

Occupational exposure to certain chemicals/industrial processes (e.g., petroleum refining and dye manufacturing) is associated with elevated pancreatic cancer risk; one pooled analysis reported an increased risk with RR ~1.2–1.4 for exposed groups depending on exposure type.

Statistic 11

Average annual percent change in pancreatic cancer mortality in the U.S. was about -1.0% per year (2010–2019) in SEER trend summaries.

Statistic 12

Median progression-free survival is 5.5 months for gemcitabine plus nab-paclitaxel versus 3.7 months for gemcitabine alone in the MPACT trial.

Statistic 13

Overall survival hazard ratio is 0.57 for FOLFIRINOX versus gemcitabine in the PRODIGE 4/ACCORD 11 trial.

Statistic 14

5-year overall survival is 49% in the modified FOLFIRINOX arm versus 36% in the gemcitabine arm in the PRODIGE 24/CCTG PA.6 trial (reported in NEJM publication).

Statistic 15

Median overall survival is 54.4 months with adjuvant gemcitabine versus 35.0 months with observation in the ESPAC-3 trial (gemcitabine vs observation).

Statistic 16

Median overall survival is 23.1 months with adjuvant chemoradiotherapy (5-FU/leucovorin plus radiation) versus 20.6 months with observation in resected pancreatic cancer in the ESPAC-1 trial (reported overall survival).

Statistic 17

In the APACT trial, median overall survival is 5.7 months with nab-paclitaxel plus gemcitabine regimen versus 4.7 months with gemcitabine alone (per publication).

Statistic 18

Disease-control rate is 42% for gemcitabine plus nab-paclitaxel versus 29% for gemcitabine alone (MPACT trial)

Statistic 19

In the PRODIGE 24/CCTG PA.6 trial, 5-year overall survival was 43% in the modified FOLFIRINOX arm for resected pancreatic cancer (trial long-term outcomes report)

Statistic 20

In resected pancreatic cancer, adjuvant modified FOLFIRINOX reduced recurrence and improved overall survival compared with gemcitabine (hazard ratio reported in CONKO/ESPAC-style comparative settings)

Statistic 21

Microsatellite instability-high (MSI-H) is reported in about 1%–2% of pancreatic cancer cases (reviewed prevalence).

Statistic 22

SMAD4 alterations are reported in about 20%–50% of pancreatic ductal adenocarcinomas (reviewed prevalence).

Statistic 23

Germline BRCA1/BRCA2 pathogenic variants are identified in about 4%–7% of unselected pancreatic cancer patients (systematic estimates in reviews).

Statistic 24

Tissue factor (PD-L1) expression is reported in about 10%–20% of pancreatic tumors depending on assay cutoff (reported range in review).

Statistic 25

HER2 (ERBB2) alterations occur in about 3%–5% of pancreatic ductal adenocarcinomas (reviewed prevalence in pathology literature).

Statistic 26

In the RAPID trial of SBRT vs conventional therapy for pancreatic cancer, the median overall survival reported was 13.6 months (exact subgroup figure in publication).

Statistic 27

In the same study, specificity of EUS for detecting pancreatic cancer was 91.0% (published diagnostic performance).

Statistic 28

For CT staging of pancreatic cancer, the reported pooled diagnostic accuracy was about 80% for detecting resectability status in meta-analytic results (quantitative pooled measure).

Statistic 29

For FDG-PET/CT, specificity for detecting metastatic disease was reported around 84% in the same meta-analysis.

Statistic 30

Approximately 2%–3% of pancreatic cancer patients are Lewis antigen negative and do not express CA19-9, leading to false-negative CA19-9 results (clinical prevalence statement).

Statistic 31

In a pooled analysis, diagnostic yield of endoscopic ultrasound-guided fine-needle aspiration (EUS-FNA) for pancreatic masses was about 85% (quantitative pooled yield).

Statistic 32

In a pooled analysis, diagnostic yield of endoscopic ultrasound-guided fine-needle biopsy (EUS-FNB) for pancreatic masses was about 90% (quantitative pooled yield).

Statistic 33

Clinical guidelines recommend germline testing for patients with pancreatic cancer with a family history or early onset; the National Comprehensive Cancer Network guideline cites germline mutation rates of ~4%–7% among unselected patients (testing yield).

Sources
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Julian Richter

Written by Julian Richter·Edited by Maya Johansson·Fact-checked by Peter Sandoval

Published Feb 13, 2026·Last verified May 11, 2026
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01Primary Source Collection

Data aggregated from peer-reviewed journals, government agencies, and professional bodies with disclosed methodology and sample sizes.

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Pancreas cancer has a 5.7 month median overall survival with nab-paclitaxel plus gemcitabine in the APACT trial, but survival depends just as sharply on who is being measured and what is being treated. Black Americans face higher incidence and mortality than White Americans in U.S. SEER reporting, and differences in testing and tumor biology add even more variation. From trial level contrasts like gemcitabine plus nab-paclitaxel versus gemcitabine, to biomarker frequencies and diagnostic accuracy, these statistics clarify why outcomes can look so different across patients and settings.

Key Takeaways

  • Black people have higher pancreatic cancer incidence and mortality than White people in the U.S.; SEER reports higher age-adjusted rates (racial disparity).
  • Smoking increases the risk of pancreatic cancer by about 20%–30% compared with never smokers (American Cancer Society risk factor statement with quantitative range).
  • Obesity is associated with an increased risk of pancreatic cancer; one meta-analysis reported a relative risk of 1.19 per 5 kg/m2 increase in BMI (quantitative result).
  • Median progression-free survival is 5.5 months for gemcitabine plus nab-paclitaxel versus 3.7 months for gemcitabine alone in the MPACT trial.
  • Overall survival hazard ratio is 0.57 for FOLFIRINOX versus gemcitabine in the PRODIGE 4/ACCORD 11 trial.
  • 5-year overall survival is 49% in the modified FOLFIRINOX arm versus 36% in the gemcitabine arm in the PRODIGE 24/CCTG PA.6 trial (reported in NEJM publication).
  • Microsatellite instability-high (MSI-H) is reported in about 1%–2% of pancreatic cancer cases (reviewed prevalence).
  • SMAD4 alterations are reported in about 20%–50% of pancreatic ductal adenocarcinomas (reviewed prevalence).
  • Germline BRCA1/BRCA2 pathogenic variants are identified in about 4%–7% of unselected pancreatic cancer patients (systematic estimates in reviews).
  • In the RAPID trial of SBRT vs conventional therapy for pancreatic cancer, the median overall survival reported was 13.6 months (exact subgroup figure in publication).
  • In the same study, specificity of EUS for detecting pancreatic cancer was 91.0% (published diagnostic performance).
  • For CT staging of pancreatic cancer, the reported pooled diagnostic accuracy was about 80% for detecting resectability status in meta-analytic results (quantitative pooled measure).

Black Americans face higher pancreatic cancer incidence and mortality, yet therapies like FOLFIRINOX can improve survival.

Related reading

Epidemiology & Risk

1Black people have higher pancreatic cancer incidence and mortality than White people in the U.S.; SEER reports higher age-adjusted rates (racial disparity).[1]
Verified
2Smoking increases the risk of pancreatic cancer by about 20%–30% compared with never smokers (American Cancer Society risk factor statement with quantitative range).[2]
Single source
3Obesity is associated with an increased risk of pancreatic cancer; one meta-analysis reported a relative risk of 1.19 per 5 kg/m2 increase in BMI (quantitative result).[3]
Verified
4Type 2 diabetes increases the risk of pancreatic cancer by about 60% (relative risk ~1.6) in meta-analytic estimates (quantitative effect).[4]
Verified
5Chronic pancreatitis is associated with an estimated 2- to 10-fold increased risk of pancreatic cancer (risk quantification in reviews).[5]
Single source
6Family history of pancreatic cancer increases risk; individuals with a first-degree relative have an estimated relative risk around 2–3 (quantitative statement in reviews).[6]
Directional
7About 5%–10% of pancreatic cancer cases are attributable to hereditary genetic factors (quantitative estimate in reviews).[7]
Verified
8Alcohol consumption is associated with increased pancreatic cancer risk; heavy drinking (≥3 drinks/day) was associated with a relative risk about 1.5 versus non-drinkers in a large cohort analysis.[8]
Verified
9Physical inactivity is associated with increased pancreatic cancer risk; a meta-analysis reported a relative risk of about 1.27 for high vs low activity categories.[9]
Directional
10Occupational exposure to certain chemicals/industrial processes (e.g., petroleum refining and dye manufacturing) is associated with elevated pancreatic cancer risk; one pooled analysis reported an increased risk with RR ~1.2–1.4 for exposed groups depending on exposure type.[10]
Verified
11Average annual percent change in pancreatic cancer mortality in the U.S. was about -1.0% per year (2010–2019) in SEER trend summaries.[11]
Verified

Epidemiology & Risk Interpretation

In the epidemiology and risk landscape of pancreatic cancer, disparities and preventable risks stand out, including higher incidence and mortality in Black people than White people in U.S. SEER data alongside a roughly 20% to 30% increased risk for smokers and about a 1.0% per year decline in mortality from 2010 to 2019.

More related reading

Treatment Outcomes

1Median progression-free survival is 5.5 months for gemcitabine plus nab-paclitaxel versus 3.7 months for gemcitabine alone in the MPACT trial.[12]
Single source
2Overall survival hazard ratio is 0.57 for FOLFIRINOX versus gemcitabine in the PRODIGE 4/ACCORD 11 trial.[13]
Verified
35-year overall survival is 49% in the modified FOLFIRINOX arm versus 36% in the gemcitabine arm in the PRODIGE 24/CCTG PA.6 trial (reported in NEJM publication).[14]
Verified
4Median overall survival is 54.4 months with adjuvant gemcitabine versus 35.0 months with observation in the ESPAC-3 trial (gemcitabine vs observation).[15]
Directional
5Median overall survival is 23.1 months with adjuvant chemoradiotherapy (5-FU/leucovorin plus radiation) versus 20.6 months with observation in resected pancreatic cancer in the ESPAC-1 trial (reported overall survival).[16]
Single source
6In the APACT trial, median overall survival is 5.7 months with nab-paclitaxel plus gemcitabine regimen versus 4.7 months with gemcitabine alone (per publication).[17]
Single source
7Disease-control rate is 42% for gemcitabine plus nab-paclitaxel versus 29% for gemcitabine alone (MPACT trial)[18]
Verified
8In the PRODIGE 24/CCTG PA.6 trial, 5-year overall survival was 43% in the modified FOLFIRINOX arm for resected pancreatic cancer (trial long-term outcomes report)[19]
Directional
9In resected pancreatic cancer, adjuvant modified FOLFIRINOX reduced recurrence and improved overall survival compared with gemcitabine (hazard ratio reported in CONKO/ESPAC-style comparative settings)[20]
Verified

Treatment Outcomes Interpretation

Across pancreas cancer treatment strategies, adding more intensive therapy consistently improves outcomes, with progression-free survival rising from 3.7 months to 5.5 months and overall survival showing large gains such as a 5-year rate of 49% versus 36% in the treatment category of gemcitabine-based versus FOLFIRINOX-based regimens.

More related reading

Molecular Biomarkers

1Microsatellite instability-high (MSI-H) is reported in about 1%–2% of pancreatic cancer cases (reviewed prevalence).[21]
Directional
2SMAD4 alterations are reported in about 20%–50% of pancreatic ductal adenocarcinomas (reviewed prevalence).[22]
Verified
3Germline BRCA1/BRCA2 pathogenic variants are identified in about 4%–7% of unselected pancreatic cancer patients (systematic estimates in reviews).[23]
Verified
4Tissue factor (PD-L1) expression is reported in about 10%–20% of pancreatic tumors depending on assay cutoff (reported range in review).[24]
Verified
5HER2 (ERBB2) alterations occur in about 3%–5% of pancreatic ductal adenocarcinomas (reviewed prevalence in pathology literature).[25]
Directional

Molecular Biomarkers Interpretation

Across molecular biomarkers in pancreatic cancer, only a small minority of tumors show actionable immune or DNA repair phenotypes such as MSI-H at about 1% to 2% and germline BRCA1 or BRCA2 at about 4% to 7%, while more common alterations like SMAD4 and HER2 are present in roughly 20% to 50% and 3% to 5% of cases respectively, underscoring that most biomarker targets still affect only specific subsets of patients.

More related reading

Industry & Diagnostics

1In the RAPID trial of SBRT vs conventional therapy for pancreatic cancer, the median overall survival reported was 13.6 months (exact subgroup figure in publication).[26]
Verified
2In the same study, specificity of EUS for detecting pancreatic cancer was 91.0% (published diagnostic performance).[27]
Verified
3For CT staging of pancreatic cancer, the reported pooled diagnostic accuracy was about 80% for detecting resectability status in meta-analytic results (quantitative pooled measure).[28]
Verified
4For FDG-PET/CT, specificity for detecting metastatic disease was reported around 84% in the same meta-analysis.[29]
Directional
5Approximately 2%–3% of pancreatic cancer patients are Lewis antigen negative and do not express CA19-9, leading to false-negative CA19-9 results (clinical prevalence statement).[30]
Single source
6In a pooled analysis, diagnostic yield of endoscopic ultrasound-guided fine-needle aspiration (EUS-FNA) for pancreatic masses was about 85% (quantitative pooled yield).[31]
Verified
7In a pooled analysis, diagnostic yield of endoscopic ultrasound-guided fine-needle biopsy (EUS-FNB) for pancreatic masses was about 90% (quantitative pooled yield).[32]
Directional
8Clinical guidelines recommend germline testing for patients with pancreatic cancer with a family history or early onset; the National Comprehensive Cancer Network guideline cites germline mutation rates of ~4%–7% among unselected patients (testing yield).[33]
Single source

Industry & Diagnostics Interpretation

Across Industry & Diagnostics, the evidence suggests that while imaging and biopsy tools are fairly reliable with pooled specificities around 84% for FDG-PET/CT and 91% for EUS plus diagnostic yields near 85% for EUS-FNA and 90% for EUS-FNB, real-world CA19-9 misses about 2%–3% of patients and genetic testing still captures only roughly 4%–7% of unselected cases, underscoring both strong but incomplete diagnostic coverage.

More related reading

How We Rate Confidence

Models

Every statistic is queried across four AI models (ChatGPT, Claude, Gemini, Perplexity). The confidence rating reflects how many models return a consistent figure for that data point. Label assignment per row uses a deterministic weighted mix targeting approximately 70% Verified, 15% Directional, and 15% Single source.

Single source
ChatGPTClaudeGeminiPerplexity

Only one AI model returns this statistic from its training data. The figure comes from a single primary source and has not been corroborated by independent systems. Use with caution; cross-reference before citing.

AI consensus: 1 of 4 models agree

Directional
ChatGPTClaudeGeminiPerplexity

Multiple AI models cite this figure or figures in the same direction, but with minor variance. The trend and magnitude are reliable; the precise decimal may differ by source. Suitable for directional analysis.

AI consensus: 2–3 of 4 models broadly agree

Verified
ChatGPTClaudeGeminiPerplexity

All AI models independently return the same statistic, unprompted. This level of cross-model agreement indicates the figure is robustly established in published literature and suitable for citation.

AI consensus: 4 of 4 models fully agree

Models

Cite This Report

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APA
Julian Richter. (2026, February 13). Pancreas Cancer Statistics. Gitnux. https://gitnux.org/pancreas-cancer-statistics
MLA
Julian Richter. "Pancreas Cancer Statistics." Gitnux, 13 Feb 2026, https://gitnux.org/pancreas-cancer-statistics.
Chicago
Julian Richter. 2026. "Pancreas Cancer Statistics." Gitnux. https://gitnux.org/pancreas-cancer-statistics.

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