While marriage seems timeless, it's actually in the midst of a historic global transformation, a fact underscored by the startling reality that the US marriage rate has hit its lowest point since the Civil War era.
Key Takeaways
- In 2021, the US marriage rate was 6.1 per 1,000 total population, the lowest since 1867 excluding pandemic years
- Globally, the crude marriage rate averaged 4.9 per 1,000 people in 2019 across 100+ countries tracked by UN data
- In Japan, marriages dropped to 474,000 in 2022, a record low with a rate of 3.8 per 1,000, driven by aging population
- In 1970, US divorce rate was 3.5 per 1,000 population, peaking at 5.3 in 1981, now 2.5 in 2021
- About 42% of US first marriages end in divorce within 15 years per 2015-2019 data
- In the EU, average divorce rate was 1.7 per 1,000 in 2020, highest in Lithuania at 3.1
- In the US, median duration of marriages ending in divorce is 8 years for women, 7.8 for men per 2019 data
- Globally, mean age at first divorce is 30 in high-income countries per 2020 studies
- In England and Wales, average marriage length before divorce was 12.9 years in 2021
- In US, college-educated adults have divorce rate 30% lower after 10 years marriage
- Black Americans have first marriage rate 40% lower than whites, 17.1% ever married by age 35 vs 37%
- US Hispanic marriage rate higher at 7.2 per 1,000 vs 5.9 non-Hispanic white in 2021
- Married US adults have 15% higher wealth accumulation by age 50 vs singles
- Wedding costs in US averaged $29,000 in 2022, up 15% from 2021 inflation
- Married couples US median net worth $244,500 vs $109,000 unmarried age 35-44
Marriage rates are declining globally while the age for marriage is rising.
Age and Duration
- In the US, median duration of marriages ending in divorce is 8 years for women, 7.8 for men per 2019 data
- Globally, mean age at first divorce is 30 in high-income countries per 2020 studies
- In England and Wales, average marriage length before divorce was 12.9 years in 2021
- US men marry first at median 30.2 years, women 28.1 in 2021, up from 23/20.8 in 1970
- Japan's mean age at first marriage is 31.1 for men, 29.7 for women in 2022
- In South Korea, first marriage age is 33.4 men, 30.9 women in 2022, highest OECD
- EU average age at first marriage is 32.5 men, 30.2 women in 2020
- Australia's median age at first marriage was 30.9 men, 29.0 women in 2021
- China first marriage age rose to 28.7 women, 30.4 men by 2020 census
- France mean age first marriage 37.1 men, 34.8 women in 2022 including all marriages
- Germany's first marriage age 34.0 men, 31.7 women in 2022
- Canada median age first marriage 30.7 men, 29.1 women in 2020
- Italy first marriage age 34.6 men, 32.3 women in 2022
- Sweden age at marriage 36.4 men, 33.9 women in 2021 for first
- Spain first marriage age 34.9 men, 32.9 women in 2022
- In US, marriages lasting 20+ years have 75% survival rate vs 50% for 10 years
- Brazil median marriage duration before divorce 7 years in 2019 urban data
- Russia's mean first marriage age 28.5 men, 26.2 women in 2021
- Turkey first marriage age 27.2 men, 24.7 women in 2022
- Mexico age at first marriage 30.4 men, 27.9 women in 2020
- In 2021, 20% of US marriages dissolved within 5 years, 33% by 10 years
- India average marriage age 22.1 women, 26.1 men per 2019-21 survey
- Poland first marriage age 29.7 men, 27.6 women in 2022
- Thailand mean age first marriage 29.8 men, 27.3 women in 2022
- New Zealand median first marriage age 31.2 men, 29.5 women in 2021
- In high-income countries, marriages after age 25 have 24% lower divorce risk per year
- UK median duration to divorce 12.2 years for men, 11.9 for women in 2021
- Globally, women initiate 69% of divorces in heterosexual marriages per 2020 meta-analysis
Age and Duration Interpretation
Humans are spending ever longer searching for the right person, only to decide, on average, quite briskly once they find them that they were wrong.
Demographic Variations
- In US, college-educated adults have divorce rate 30% lower after 10 years marriage
- Black Americans have first marriage rate 40% lower than whites, 17.1% ever married by age 35 vs 37%
- US Hispanic marriage rate higher at 7.2 per 1,000 vs 5.9 non-Hispanic white in 2021
- Women with bachelor's degree or higher have 78% chance of first marriage by 40 vs 56% high school only
- In US, 65% of adults with postgraduate degree are married vs 48% with high school diploma
- Asian Americans have highest share married at 61% vs 53% overall in 2019
- US rural adults 57% married vs 49% urban in 2020 data
- Evangelical Protestants in US 65% married vs 50% unaffiliated, per 2014 GSS
- US immigrants 54% married vs 48% US-born adults age 18-36 in 2020
- In EU, higher education correlates with 20% lower divorce risk across 27 countries
- US men earning $100k+ 65% married vs 30% low-income men under 35
- Black women in US 60% unmarried at 30 vs 20% white women, per 2021 data
- LGBTQ+ adults 19% married in US 2019 vs 50% heterosexual
- In US, 72% of adults 55+ married vs 35% under 30 in 2021
- Hindu Indians 95% ever married by 40 vs 85% Muslims, per NFHS-5
- US military personnel 55% married vs 50% civilians, higher stability
- In Canada, Indigenous peoples 45% married vs 52% non-Indigenous 2021
- France urban areas 45% married vs 55% rural adults 25-54
- Australia Aboriginal 38% married vs 52% non-Indigenous
- In US South, 54% adults married vs 45% Northeast 2021
- College grads US divorce 25% less than non-grads after 20 years
- Jewish Americans 60% married vs 45% overall under 40
- In Japan, urban Tokyo marriage rate 3.2 per 1,000 vs 5.1 rural 2022
- US disabled adults 42% married vs 56% non-disabled 2019
- Sweden high-income 60% married vs 40% low-income cohorts
Demographic Variations Interpretation
One can't help but notice that the path to "happily ever after" appears to be paved with diplomas, direct deposits, and demographics, creating a marital landscape where tradition triumphs in the country and struggle persists in the city, proving that while love may be blind, society's ledger books are not.
Divorce Statistics
- In 1970, US divorce rate was 3.5 per 1,000 population, peaking at 5.3 in 1981, now 2.5 in 2021
- About 42% of US first marriages end in divorce within 15 years per 2015-2019 data
- In the EU, average divorce rate was 1.7 per 1,000 in 2020, highest in Lithuania at 3.1
- Russia's divorce rate was 4.7 per 1,000 in 2021, with 683,000 divorces vs 923,000 marriages
- US divorce rate for second marriages is 60-67% higher than first, per 2020 studies
- In England and Wales, 2021 divorce rate was 2.5 per 1,000 married women, 113,505 petitions
- Japan's divorce rate steady at 1.8 per 1,000 in 2022, but 1 in 3 marriages end in divorce lifetime
- Australia granted 49,000 divorces in 2021, rate 1.9 per 1,000, median duration 12.6 years
- China's divorce rate hit 3.2 per 1,000 in 2021 before cooling-off policy reduced it 70%
- Canada's divorce rate was 5.6 per 1,000 married couples in 2020, down from 11.7 peak in 1991
- France saw 124,000 divorces in 2022, rate 1.9 per 1,000, with 44% consensual
- Germany's divorce rate was 1.7 per 1,000 in 2022, 144,000 cases, median marriage length 14.4 years
- South Korea's divorce rate fell to 1.7 per 1,000 in 2022 from 2.5 peak
- In the US, Nevada has highest divorce rate at 4.2 per 1,000 in 2021, Utah lowest at 1.6
- Italy's divorce rate was 1.5 per 1,000 in 2022, 53,000 divorces, up from civil unions dissolutions
- Brazil recorded 331,000 divorces in 2019, rate 1.6 per 1,000, 45% after 0-5 years marriage
- Sweden's divorce rate is 2.3 per 1,000 in 2021, high among cohabiting to married transitions
- Spain granted 49,000 divorces in 2022, rate 1.0 per 1,000, lowest in decade
- India's divorce rate is 0.01 per 1,000 officially, but urban areas see 1-2% of marriages dissolving
- Turkey's divorce rate rose to 2.5 per 1,000 in 2022, 155,000 divorces
- Mexico's divorce rate was 1.3 per 1,000 in 2020, doubling since 2000 in urban zones
- In 2021, 689,000 US divorces occurred, rate 2.5 per 1,000 population
- Globally, divorce rates peaked in 2000s, now declining in 60% of countries per UN data
- UK divorce rate for marriages 10-14 years old was highest at 27 per 1,000 in 2021
- Poland saw divorce rate of 1.6 per 1,000 in 2022, stable despite economic pressures
- Thailand's divorce rate is 1.4 per 1,000 in 2022, up 20% in last decade
Divorce Statistics Interpretation
Marriage, statistically speaking, appears to be a global experiment in trial and error, where we collectively learned to rush in slower, and sometimes, to rush back out smarter.
Economic Aspects
- Married US adults have 15% higher wealth accumulation by age 50 vs singles
- Wedding costs in US averaged $29,000 in 2022, up 15% from 2021 inflation
- Married couples US median net worth $244,500 vs $109,000 unmarried age 35-44
- Globally, married men earn 10-40% wage premium over singles same quals, meta-analysis 2020
- US divorce costs average $7,000-$15,000 legal fees, higher for contested 2023
- Households with married couples 75% of US top 10% income bracket 2022
- Average UK wedding £18,400 in 2023, 40% couples debt-financed
- Married workers 17% less likely unemployed, US BLS 2022 data
- Australia average wedding $36,000 AUD 2023, destination weddings 20% cheaper
- US alimony awarded in 10-15% divorces, median $5,000/year 2022
- Married couples save 30% more for retirement vs cohabiting, Vanguard 2023
- Global wedding industry $300 billion annually pre-COVID, $180B 2022 recovery
- In US, single women 35% poverty rate vs 15% married women 2021
- France average wedding €12,000 2022, 25% state-subsidized civil costs
- Corporate US tax deductions for employee weddings averaged $1,500 benefit 2023
- Married households US 2.5x wealthier median than singles age 55-64, Fed 2022
- India average wedding cost ₹20-50 lakhs urban 2023, 50% family funded
- Prenups signed in 15% US marriages 2023, up from 5% 1990s, avg cost $2,500
- Canada wedding average $30,000 CAD 2023, elopements 40% cheaper
- Health insurance for spouses saves US $5,000/year avg family premium 2023
- Divorced individuals US lose 45% retirement assets on average, EBRI 2022
- Japan average wedding ¥3.5 million 2022, down 20% due fewer guests
- US married tax filers 80% get $2,500 avg savings vs filing single 2022
- Social Security survivor benefits avg $15,000/year for widowed spouses US
- Brazil wedding avg R$80,000 2023 urban, micro-weddings 50% cost cut
Economic Aspects Interpretation
Marriage presents itself as a high-stakes financial wager, where the potential for significant wealth accumulation is front-loaded with substantial entry fees and carries a non-trivial risk of costly liquidation.
Rates and Trends
- In 2021, the US marriage rate was 6.1 per 1,000 total population, the lowest since 1867 excluding pandemic years
- Globally, the crude marriage rate averaged 4.9 per 1,000 people in 2019 across 100+ countries tracked by UN data
- In Japan, marriages dropped to 474,000 in 2022, a record low with a rate of 3.8 per 1,000, driven by aging population
- South Korea's marriage rate fell to 2.5 per 1,000 in 2022, lowest ever, with only 193,000 marriages
- India's marriage rate is estimated at 8.2 per 1,000 in 2020, with over 10 million marriages annually
- In the EU-27, the average marriage rate was 4.2 per 1,000 in 2020, down 15% from 2010
- US remarriage rate among divorced women aged 25+ was 52% within 5 years in 2019 data
- China's first-marriage rate for women dropped 45% from 2013 to 2022, to 4.8 per 1,000
- In England and Wales, opposite-sex marriages totaled 228,000 in 2021, rate of 3.8 per 1,000
- Australia's marriage rate was 4.6 per 1,000 in 2021, with 91,000 marriages post-COVID dip
- Brazil saw 1.1 million marriages in 2019, rate of 5.3 per 1,000 before pandemic decline
- In Canada, marriages totaled 137,000 in 2021, rate of 3.6 per 1,000, up from 2020 low
- France's marriage rate was 3.5 per 1,000 in 2022, with civil unions (PACS) outnumbering traditional marriages
- Germany's crude marriage rate fell to 3.3 per 1,000 in 2022, lowest since unification
- Mexico's marriage rate was 3.9 per 1,000 in 2020, with regional variations up to 6.0 in some states
- In Italy, marriages dropped to 137,000 in 2022, rate of 2.3 per 1,000 amid population decline
- Russia's marriage rate was 5.2 per 1,000 in 2021, higher than EU average despite war impacts
- Sweden's marriage rate among cohabiting couples is low at 4.1 per 1,000 in 2021, favoring partnerships
- Turkey registered 565,000 marriages in 2022, rate of 6.5 per 1,000, stable post-earthquake
- Nigeria estimates 2.5 million marriages yearly, rate around 12 per 1,000 in urban areas
- In 2020, US states like Utah had highest marriage rate at 9.9 per 1,000, Nevada second at 9.5
- Globally, marriage rates halved from 8 per 1,000 in 1970 to 4 per 1,000 in 2020 in developed nations
- In 2019, 50% of US adults aged 18-34 were single, up from 29% in 1990, delaying marriages
- Iran's marriage rate dropped to 6.8 per 1,000 in 2022 from 9.2 in 2011 due to economic factors
- In Spain, marriages fell to 1.8 per 1,000 in 2022, lowest in EU
- New Zealand's marriage rate was 4.9 per 1,000 in 2021, with civil unions declining
- In 2022, Thailand had 240,000 marriages, rate of 3.4 per 1,000 amid low birth rates
- Poland's marriage rate rose slightly to 4.4 per 1,000 in 2022 post-COVID
- In 2021, the US saw 2,044,000 marriages, rate 6.1 per 1,000, rebound from 2020
- Globally, peak marriage age shifted from 20s to 30s in 80% of OECD countries by 2020
Rates and Trends Interpretation
The world's love affair with marriage is cooling faster than a reheated cup of coffee, shifting from a youthful sprint to a hesitant, often optional, stroll in later life.
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