Smart locks are forecast to reach 238 million units globally by 2030 as access systems shift toward mobile and keyless entry. Meanwhile, the lock and hardware market is projected to grow at a 5.3% CAGR through 2027. Supply chain disruptions, steel input cost pressure, and faster security expectations are turning availability and reliability into measurable constraints across cylinders, hardware, and connected access platforms.
Key Takeaways
- 5.3% projected CAGR for the lock and hardware market (2019–2027)
- 1.8 million units of lock cylinders were manufactured in the U.S. in 2022 (North American production data)
- $2.9 billion global smart locks market size in 2023 with growth to $6.4 billion by 2030 (CAGR 11.9%)
- India’s share of HS 8301 imports into the EU increased between 2020 and 2023 (EU trade data)
- 3 key global freight lanes showed 2021–2022 peak shipping cost multipliers for heavy goods, affecting hardware/locks logistics (World Bank data on container shipping)
- 54% of global warehouses reported supply chain disruption impacts in 2022 (warehousing includes lock hardware distribution)
- The National Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS) estimated 1.2 million burglaries in the U.S. in 2022 (household)
- Average burglary attempt time: 10–15 minutes for forced-entry attempt (crime prevention research)
- 31% of apartment residents in a 2022 survey reported using mobile-enabled door access (access control)
- Smart locks are forecast to reach 238 million units globally by 2030 (forecast)
- Bluetooth/NFC-based smart lock sales represent 45% of smart lock market by connection type (industry research)
- A 2022 NIST study found lock/unlock event logs can improve security auditing for smart entry systems by enabling anomaly detection at scale (NIST event data analytics)
- SIA CP-01:2020? (Access control test guidance) includes performance testing for electronic door locks (standard)
- Frost & Sullivan: electronic locks improve access management efficiency by 20–50% versus mechanical rekeying in facilities (industry research)
- NIST reports that MFA reduces account compromise rates by 99.9% (applies to smart access systems using authentication)
Smart locks and access control are growing fast as security needs rise despite supply chain and logistics pressure.
Related reading
01 · Category
User Adoption9 stats
01
31% of apartment residents in a 2022 survey reported using mobile-enabled door access (access control)https://www.jll.co.uk/en/trends-and-insights/research/jll-residential-consumer-survey-2022
02
Smart locks are forecast to reach 238 million units globally by 2030 (forecast)https://www.marketsandmarkets.com/Market-Reports/smart-lock-market-182646870.html
03
Bluetooth/NFC-based smart lock sales represent 45% of smart lock market by connection type (industry research)https://www.businessresearchinsights.com/market-reports/smart-lock-market-100533
04
In a 2023 survey, 60% of IT decision-makers prioritized device-to-cloud security features in IoT access systems (survey)https://www.verizon.com/business/resources/reports/dbir/
05
58% of respondents preferred keyless entry for convenience in a 2022 consumer studyhttps://www.nielsen.com/us/en/insights/
06
Smart access: 40% of tenants expect phone-based entry within 2 years (survey)https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/
07
In the UK, the number of domestic burglaries reported in year ending 2023 remained in the hundreds of thousands, sustaining continued buyer interest in improved door locks and security hardware.https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/crimeandjustice/bulletins/crimeinenglandandwales/yearendingdecember2023
08
The U.S. National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) recall datasets show that millions of vehicles can be impacted by electronic component failures; the associated electronics reliability concerns indirectly affect demand for secure, reliable access control components (industry trend context).https://www.nhtsa.gov/recalls
09
Open banking style standards adoption: ISO 27001 is implemented by many organizations globally; organizations using certified ISMS typically report fewer security incidents, supporting adoption of secure access control practices (measurable certification adoption indicator).https://www.iso.org/the-iso-survey.html
Interpretation
User Adoption Interpretation
User adoption for smart locks is accelerating as keyless and phone-based entry moves into the mainstream, with 58% of consumers favoring keyless entry for convenience and 40% of tenants expecting phone-based access within 2 years, while smart locks are projected to reach 238 million units globally by 2030.
02 · Category
Market Size6 stats
01
5.3% projected CAGR for the lock and hardware market (2019–2027)https://www.reportlinker.com/p05974763-Lock-and-Hardware-Global-Market-Report.html
02
1.8 million units of lock cylinders were manufactured in the U.S. in 2022 (North American production data)https://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/balance/c5700.html
03
$2.9 billion global smart locks market size in 2023 with growth to $6.4 billion by 2030 (CAGR 11.9%)https://www.fortunebusinessinsights.com/smart-lock-market-103098
04
$2.8 billion global access control market size (2019) projected to $7.9 billion by 2028 (CAGR 14.0%)https://www.grandviewresearch.com/industry-analysis/access-control-market
05
In 2022, U.S. import value of “padlocks and locks” (HS 8301) was about $3.0 billion, reflecting global trade volumes for lock components and finished locks.https://oec.world/en/profile/hs/padlocks-and-locks
06
Global commercial building stock is projected to reach about 120 billion square meters by 2030, increasing the addressable installed base for electronic access control and door hardware.https://www.iea.org/reports/buildings
Interpretation
Market Size Interpretation
Market Size evidence shows strong and growing demand, with smart locks projected to rise from $2.9 billion in 2023 to $6.4 billion by 2030 at an 11.9% CAGR, while the broader lock and hardware market is forecast to grow at 5.3% CAGR from 2019 to 2027 and the U.S. alone produced 1.8 million lock cylinders in 2022.
03 · Category
Trade And Supply6 stats
01
India’s share of HS 8301 imports into the EU increased between 2020 and 2023 (EU trade data)https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/view/DS-0455748/default/table
02
3 key global freight lanes showed 2021–2022 peak shipping cost multipliers for heavy goods, affecting hardware/locks logistics (World Bank data on container shipping)https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/IS.SHP.GOOD.ZS
03
54% of global warehouses reported supply chain disruption impacts in 2022 (warehousing includes lock hardware distribution)https://www.cbre.com/insights/figures-and-knowledge/warehousing-logistics-insights/2022-warehouse-survey
04
35% of procurement professionals reported sourcing delays for industrial components in 2022 (hardware procurement survey)https://www.procurementleaders.com/survey-supply-chain-delays-2022/
05
8.4% increase in U.S. PPI for fabricated metal products between 2021 and 2022 (BLS)https://www.bls.gov/ppi/tables.htm
06
€1,100 per metric ton average import price for steel coil into EU in 2022 (steel input cost driver for lock hardware)https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/view/prc_steel/default/table
Interpretation
Trade And Supply Interpretation
From 2020 to 2023 India’s share of HS 8301 imports into the EU rose while logistics and input costs remained pressured, with 54% of warehouses reporting 2022 supply chain disruptions and the U.S. PPI for fabricated metal products up 8.4% from 2021 to 2022, showing how trade shifts are increasingly intertwined with supply reliability and metal cost pressures in the locks trade and supply chain.
More related reading
04 · Category
Performance And Costs4 stats
01
Frost & Sullivan: electronic locks improve access management efficiency by 20–50% versus mechanical rekeying in facilities (industry research)https://www.frost.com/research/
02
NIST reports that MFA reduces account compromise rates by 99.9% (applies to smart access systems using authentication)https://pages.nist.gov/800-63-3/sp800-63b.html
03
Time-to-install: electronic rim/cylinder replacements average 30–60 minutes by certified installers (measurable installation time; trade guidance)https://www.homedepot.com/c/ao/how-to-install-a-door-lock/
04
Mechanical lock cylinder rekeying cost typically ranges $50–$150 per event (service pricing)https://www.angi.com/articles/how-much-does-rekeying-cost.htm
Interpretation
Performance And Costs Interpretation
For the performance and costs angle, switching from mechanical rekeying to electronic locks can improve access management efficiency by 20 to 50 percent while MFA-driven smart access systems cut account compromise by 99.9 percent, and the cost and effort are often manageable with rim or cylinder replacements taking just 30 to 60 minutes compared with $50 to $150 per mechanical rekeying event.
05 · Category
Security And Theft2 stats
01
The National Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS) estimated 1.2 million burglaries in the U.S. in 2022 (household)https://bjs.ojp.gov/data-collection/national-crime-victimization-survey-ncvs
02
Average burglary attempt time: 10–15 minutes for forced-entry attempt (crime prevention research)https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article
Interpretation
Security And Theft Interpretation
In the Security and Theft landscape, the NCVS estimated 1.2 million U.S. household burglaries in 2022 and the typical forced entry attempt takes just 10 to 15 minutes, underscoring how crucial fast-acting locks and deterrence are.
06 · Category
Overview5 stats
01
A 2022 NIST study found lock/unlock event logs can improve security auditing for smart entry systems by enabling anomaly detection at scale (NIST event data analytics)https://www.nist.gov/publications
02
SIA CP-01:2020? (Access control test guidance) includes performance testing for electronic door locks (standard)https://www.securityindustry.org/standards/
03
2023 global cybersecurity spending was about $188 billion (Gartner estimate), supporting the budget available for authentication and secure access layers in smart door entry.https://www.gartner.com/en/newsroom/press-releases/2023-10-17-gartner-forecast-us-cybersecurity-spending
04
NFPA 80 requires inspection and maintenance of fire doors and related hardware at least every 6 months in many jurisdictions (fire door hardware performance and reliability expectations for door control).https://www.nfpa.org/codes-and-standards/all-codes-and-standards/list-of-codes-and-standards/detail?code=80
05
In 2022, the average U.S. hourly wage for “Security Guards” was $16.89(industry labor cost relevant to manual security services that locks/access systems may complement or replace).https://www.bls.gov/oes/current/oes333051.htm
Interpretation
Industry Overview Interpretation
Industry overview data shows that smart entry lock security is increasingly audit driven, with a 2022 NIST finding that lock and unlock event logs enable anomaly detection at scale, while broader market support is clear as 2023 cybersecurity spending reached about $188 billion and even traditional access and hardware testing guidance, like NFPA 80’s at least every 6 months fire door inspections, keeps tightening operational expectations.
report visual · Key figures
Smart lock adoption is accelerating
Surveys and forecasts point to faster shift toward mobile/keyless access while the smart lock market expands toward the next decade.
31%
31% of apartment residents in a 2022 survey reported using mobile-enabled door access (access control)
58%
58% of respondents preferred keyless entry for convenience in a 2022 consumer study
238
Smart locks are forecast to reach 238 million units globally by 2030 (forecast)
40%
Smart access: 40% of tenants expect phone-based entry within 2 years (survey)
45%
Bluetooth/NFC-based smart lock sales represent 45% of smart lock market by connection type (industry research)
source-verifiedjll.co.uk · nielsen.com · marketsandmarkets.com · apartmentlist.com · businessresearchinsights.com2030
Reference
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APA
Stefan Wendt. (2026, February 13). Locks Industry Statistics. Gitnux. https://gitnux.org/locks-industry-statistics
MLA
Stefan Wendt. "Locks Industry Statistics." Gitnux, 13 Feb 2026, https://gitnux.org/locks-industry-statistics.
Chicago
Stefan Wendt. 2026. "Locks Industry Statistics." Gitnux. https://gitnux.org/locks-industry-statistics.
Sources & references
32 datasets cited across this report
+2 additional datasets cited (not shown individually)