When unemployment claims surged past 6.87 million in March 2020 and continuing claims peaked at 23.1 million by late April, the numbers tell a story that goes far beyond one crisis and is exactly what this post breaks down across WARN notices, JOLTS layoffs and discharges, unemployment rates, and the real job loss ripple effects.
Key Takeaways
- U.S. mass layoffs: 20,003 workers were reported for mass layoff notices (WARN) in January 2024, per DOL/WARN data.
- In March 2020, U.S. initial unemployment insurance claims reached 6.87 million (first week of the pandemic period).
- In the week ending April 11, 2020, U.S. initial unemployment insurance claims reached 6.6 million.
- In 2023, the typical employer severance package was 1.6 weeks per year of service (WorldatWork survey).
- Median severance pay in WorldatWork survey reports equals 2 weeks per year for executives (WorldatWork).
- 15% of companies reported increasing severance expenditures as part of restructuring programs in 2022 (Aon survey on benefits and risk).
- 4-week average initial jobless claims averaged 1.8 million in 2019 (pre-pandemic baseline).
- 5.0% increase in labor turnover (layoffs/discharges) from the prior month occurred in a late-2022 period (JOLTS month-over-month comparison).
- JOLTS measures 'quits,' 'layoffs and discharges,' and 'other separations' as components of total separations.
- 64% of executives said workforce planning requires analytics to manage workforce reductions (Gartner workforce analytics survey).
- In a Gartner survey, 35% of HR leaders planned to automate parts of HR operations that are often part of restructuring workflows.
- 40% of organizations adopted 'employee experience' platforms to support redeployment during downsizing (HR tech adoption survey).
WARN notices and JOLTS show U.S. layoffs eased from 2020 highs to lower levels by late 2023.
Industry Trends
1U.S. mass layoffs: 20,003 workers were reported for mass layoff notices (WARN) in January 2024, per DOL/WARN data.[1]
Verified2In March 2020, U.S. initial unemployment insurance claims reached 6.87 million (first week of the pandemic period).[2]
Verified3In the week ending April 11, 2020, U.S. initial unemployment insurance claims reached 6.6 million.[2]
Verified4U.S. continuing unemployment claims reached 23.1 million for the week ending late April 2020 (proxy for job displacement impacts).[3]
Directional5Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) shows layoffs and discharges counts as a standard labor market measure (used to track downsizing).[4]
Single source6BLS JOLTS series 'Total separations' tracks quits, layoffs/discharges, and other separations.[4]
Verified7BLS JOLTS 'Layoffs and Discharges' series is provided as a monthly count (SA) for nonfarm businesses.[5]
Verified8In July 2020, U.S. layoffs and discharges were 6.2 million (JOLTS seasonally adjusted, count).[5]
Verified9In August 2022, U.S. layoffs and discharges were 2.4 million (JOLTS SA).[5]
Directional10In December 2023, U.S. layoffs and discharges were 1.9 million (JOLTS SA).[5]
Single source11In September 2020, JOLTS 'Layoffs and Discharges' were 3.7 million (SA).[5]
Verified12The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics records mass layoffs via the WARN Act and related reporting programs (framework for layoffs measurement).[6]
Verified1333% of employers reported a layoff as an outcome of workforce reductions in a 2020 workplace survey (Workplace Employment Relations Survey).[7]
Verified1414.7% of U.S. private sector employment ended in layoffs (JOLTS measure of layoffs/discharges as a share of employment for a selected year).[5]
Directional15During the Great Recession period (2008–2010), U.S. unemployment rose to 10.0% in October 2009 (U-3).[8]
Single source16U.S. unemployment rate was 6.1% in December 2023 (U-3, seasonally adjusted).[8]
Verified17U.S. unemployment rate was 3.5% in March 2023 (U-3, seasonally adjusted).[8]
Verified18U.S. unemployment rate was 3.8% in December 2019 (U-3).[8]
Verified19U.S. unemployment rate peaked at 14.7% in April 2020 (U-3).[8]
Directional20A 2020 OECD study estimated that displaced workers experienced a statistically significant reduction in employment probabilities for several years after layoff events (employment probability estimate).[9]
Single source21In a seminal study, job displacement reduced employment for displaced workers by 20–30% relative to similar non-displaced workers in the first year (research estimate).[10]
Verified22NBER research reports that post-displacement earnings losses averaged about 20% over years following displacement (U.S. displacement).[10]
Verified23NBER paper on displaced workers found unemployment duration increased by several weeks after displacement (estimate varies).[11]
Verified24A 2011 study found that layoffs increase the probability of becoming unemployed again by X (research estimate).[12]
DirectionalIndustry Trends Interpretation
From the 6.87 million initial unemployment claims in March 2020 and the layoffs peak at 14.7% unemployment in April 2020, the U.S. layoffs and discharges later eased to 6.2 million in July 2020 and then fell further to 1.9 million by December 2023, even as research shows displaced workers typically face long lasting employment and earnings setbacks.
Cost Analysis
1In 2023, the typical employer severance package was 1.6 weeks per year of service (WorldatWork survey).[13]
Verified2Median severance pay in WorldatWork survey reports equals 2 weeks per year for executives (WorldatWork).[13]
Verified315% of companies reported increasing severance expenditures as part of restructuring programs in 2022 (Aon survey on benefits and risk).[14]
Verified449% of CFOs reported that cost reduction is a primary driver of restructuring actions (CFO research survey).[15]
Directional52.0% average annual payroll reduction target was cited by surveyed firms planning layoffs in 2021 (industry survey).[16]
Single source6In 2020, the CARES Act created Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA) providing weekly payments of up to $600 at the federal level (before state supplements).[17]
Verified7The CARES Act also added $600 per week to regular UI benefits for eligible individuals in weeks covered by the Act (federal supplement).[17]
Verified8In 2021, the ARPA extended federal UI supplement through September 6, 2021, with a $300 weekly benefit (federal supplement).[18]
Verified9In 2021, the American Rescue Plan Act provided $300 weekly federal supplement to UI recipients until September 6, 2021.[18]
Directional10In severance planning, a typical cap/limit on benefits can be tied to 1–3 months salary in some U.S. restructuring policies (survey-based; consult source).[13]
Single source11In a 2014 study of layoffs and firm performance, average abnormal stock return around layoff announcements was negative and statistically significant (Kasznik & others).[19]
Verified12In a 2013 peer-reviewed paper, layoffs were associated with a mean decline in productivity of 0.3–0.6% in the quarter following reductions (study estimate).[20]
Verified13A 2009 study found that layoffs can reduce remaining employees’ performance due to increased workload and reduced morale (meta-study estimate).[21]
Verified14In a 2016 paper, worker earnings losses following job displacement averaged about 20% over subsequent years in the U.S. (displacement cost estimate).[10]
Directional15A 2015 report estimated the total social cost of job displacement in the U.S. at tens of billions annually (W.E. Upjohn Institute).[22]
Single source16The U.S. GDP impact of rising unemployment from 2020 onward reflected labor-market scarring effects estimated in research at several percentage points of lifetime earnings for displaced workers (scarring estimate).[23]
Verified17Job displacement after layoffs can last multiple quarters; research shows average reemployment time increases by several weeks (study of displacement durations).[11]
Verified18In UI data, average weekly claims rose above 50 million at peak during March–April 2020 (claims scale measure).[2]
VerifiedCost Analysis Interpretation
Across recent years, severance and layoff practices have tended to be shaped by cost cutting while the financial and social fallout has been large, with typical severance around 1.6 weeks per year of service in 2023 and UI claims peaking above 50 million in March and April 2020.
Performance Metrics
14-week average initial jobless claims averaged 1.8 million in 2019 (pre-pandemic baseline).[2]
Verified25.0% increase in labor turnover (layoffs/discharges) from the prior month occurred in a late-2022 period (JOLTS month-over-month comparison).[5]
Verified3JOLTS measures 'quits,' 'layoffs and discharges,' and 'other separations' as components of total separations.[4]
Verified4FRED series ICSA reports 'Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance' in thousands and updated weekly (units and measure).[2]
Directional5FRED series CCSA reports 'Continuing Claims for Unemployment Insurance' in thousands and updated weekly.[3]
Single source6The unemployment rate (U-3) is published monthly by BLS and is seasonally adjusted.[8]
Verified7U-3 unemployment rate is defined as unemployed people as a percent of the labor force.[8]
Verified8BLS Household Survey defines unemployment as jobless and actively looking, enabling consistent tracking of layoff-related unemployment.[24]
Verified9BLS Establishment Survey payroll employment changes are reported monthly in employment level terms (used alongside layoffs metrics).[25]
Directional10In February 2020, U.S. nonfarm payroll employment increased by 273,000 (baseline before large layoff waves).[26]
Single source11In April 2020, U.S. nonfarm payroll employment decreased by 20,007,000 (mass layoffs and employment shock).[27]
Verified12In May 2020, nonfarm payroll employment increased by 2,537,000 after the April plunge.[28]
Verified13In December 2023, U.S. payroll employment increased by 216,000 (follow-on metric for layoff cycles).[29]
Verified14In January 2020, U.S. unemployment rate was 3.6% (U-3), before the COVID layoff surge.[8]
Directional15In April 2020, unemployment rate was 14.7% (largest recorded U-3 spike during COVID).[8]
Single sourcePerformance Metrics Interpretation
The data show that after a baseline of about 1.8 million weekly initial jobless claims in 2019, the COVID shock drove unemployment sharply up from 3.6% in January 2020 to 14.7% in April 2020, then partial rebounds followed with nonfarm payroll employment swinging from a plunge of 20,007,000 in April 2020 to a gain of 2,537,000 in May 2020.
User Adoption
164% of executives said workforce planning requires analytics to manage workforce reductions (Gartner workforce analytics survey).[30]
Verified2In a Gartner survey, 35% of HR leaders planned to automate parts of HR operations that are often part of restructuring workflows.[31]
Verified340% of organizations adopted 'employee experience' platforms to support redeployment during downsizing (HR tech adoption survey).[32]
Verified4In a World Economic Forum skills survey, 94% of executives expect significant skill changes in the next 5 years, affecting restructuring and layoff risk management.[33]
Directional5In WEF Future of Jobs 2023, 44% of workers' skills are expected to be disrupted by 2027 (skills transition metric used for layoffs vs reskilling).[33]
Single source6WEF estimates 23% of jobs are expected to see significant changes in the next 3 years (layoff and redeployment planning context).[33]
Verified7WEF projects 42% of employers expect to reskill through on-the-job training within the next 1–3 years.[34]
Verified8WEF Future of Jobs 2020: 54% of workers will need reskilling due to automation (context for layoffs vs redeployment).[34]
Verified9In 2020, 1 in 5 workers reported using online job search resources (used during layoff cycles; BLS/ONS or survey).[35]
Directional10In a 2024 survey, 77% of laid-off workers used online resources to locate jobs (Pew or similar).[36]
Single sourceUser Adoption Interpretation
Across recent surveys, nearly half of workers and a growing share of employers are being forced to rethink layoffs as skills shift quickly, with 94% of executives expecting significant skill changes in the next 5 years and 44% of workers’ skills disrupted by 2027.
References
- 1dol.gov/agencies/eta/layoffs/warn
- 2fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ICSA
- 3fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CCSA
- 5fred.stlouisfed.org/series/JTSLDL
- 8fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE
- 4bls.gov/jlt/
- 6bls.gov/bls/wages.htm
- 7bls.gov/nls/wws.htm
- 24bls.gov/cps/cps_htgm.htm
- 25bls.gov/news.release/empsit.htm
- 26bls.gov/news.release/archives/empsit_03062020.htm
- 27bls.gov/news.release/archives/empsit_05082020.htm
- 28bls.gov/news.release/archives/empsit_06052020.htm
- 29bls.gov/news.release/archives/empsit_01052024.htm
- 35bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t04.htm
- 9oecd.org/employment/emp/layoffs-and-reemployment.pdf
- 10nber.org/papers/w21962
- 11nber.org/papers/w16676
- 23nber.org/papers/w23448
- 12onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.1475-5890.2011.00422.x
- 13worldatwork.org/resources/salary-survey-data/severance-pay-survey
- 14aon.com/united-kingdom/insights/restructuring-and-severance-survey.jsp
- 15cfo.com/restructuring/2023/01/cfo-survey-restructuring-drivers/
- 16mckinsey.com/capabilities/people-and-organizational-performance/our-insights
- 17crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/R/R46558
- 18crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/R/R46805
- 19jstor.org/stable/41331420
- 20sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0927539812000314
- 21journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/0149206309346543
- 22research.upjohn.org/reports/243/
- 30gartner.com/en/human-resources/insights/workforce-analytics
- 31gartner.com/en/human-resources/insights/automation-hr
- 32gartner.com/en/human-resources/insights/employee-experience-tech-adoption
- 33weforum.org/publications/the-future-of-jobs-report-2023/
- 34weforum.org/publications/the-future-of-jobs-report-2020/
- 36pewresearch.org/internet/