While statistics can feel cold, the warm reality is that for women under 35, over half of IVF cycles using their own eggs lead to a live birth, a beacon of hope against the sobering backdrop of declining odds with age.
Key Takeaways
- In 2021, the live birth rate per intended retrieval for women aged <35 years using non-donor eggs was 51.3%
- For women aged 35-37, the live birth rate per embryo transfer with own eggs was 42.1% in US clinics in 2021
- Women 38-40 had a 26.5% live birth rate per transfer using autologous eggs in 2021 CDC data
- First cycle success under 35: 55% cumulative LBR after 3 cycles
- Second IVF cycle: 35% additional LBR chance for <35yo
- Third cycle LBR increment 15% for young women
- PCOS patients first cycle: 48% LBR
- Male factor infertility: 42% LBR per transfer overall
- Tubal factor: 38% live birth rate IVF
- USA CDC 2021 Northeast: 52.3% LBR/ET <35 non-donor
- Midwest US 2021: 50.1% LBR <35
- South US: 48.7% LBR/ET <35 2021
- Donor egg IVF USA: 59.1% LBR/ET 2021
- PGT-A euploid embryo transfer: 65% LBR single ET
- Blastocyst vs cleavage stage: 55% vs 40% LBR
IVF success rates decline significantly as a woman's age increases.
Age-Specific Success Rates
- In 2021, the live birth rate per intended retrieval for women aged <35 years using non-donor eggs was 51.3%
- For women aged 35-37, the live birth rate per embryo transfer with own eggs was 42.1% in US clinics in 2021
- Women 38-40 had a 26.5% live birth rate per transfer using autologous eggs in 2021 CDC data
- Live birth rate for women 41-42 was 12.4% per embryo transfer with non-donor eggs (2021)
- For women >42, IVF success (live birth/transfer) with own eggs was 4.7% in 2021
- UK HFEA data 2019-2020: under 35, live birth rate 32% per embryo transferred (own eggs)
- HFEA 2020: 35-37 years, 27% live birth/transfer own eggs
- 38-40 years: 19% live birth rate per transfer (HFEA 2020, fresh cycles)
- 41-42: 10% live birth/transfer own eggs (HFEA 2020)
- Over 42: 4% live birth rate per embryo transfer (HFEA 2020, own eggs)
- ESHRE 2019: <35 years, 35.2% live birth rate per started cycle non-donor
- ESHRE 2019: 35-39, 27.3% live birth/started cycle own eggs
- 40-42: 13.8% per cycle (ESHRE 2019)
- >43: 3.1% live birth rate (ESHRE 2019 own eggs)
- Australian 2020: <35, 46% live birth/transfer own eggs
- 35-37: 38% LBR/ET Australia 2020
- 38-39: 27% LBR Australia
- 40-41: 15% live birth/transfer
- >42: 5% LBR/ET Australia 2020
- Spain 2021: <35, 52% clinical pregnancy/transfer
- 35-37 Spain: 45% CP/ET
- 38-40: 32% pregnancy rate/transfer Spain
- 41+: 18% CP/ET Spain clinics
- Israel 2022: <35, 55% LBR/ET own eggs
- 35-40 Israel: 40% LBR
- >40: 20% success rate Israel
Age-Specific Success Rates Interpretation
Mother Nature, it seems, reads the fine print on your birth certificate, politely but firmly offering a fifty-fifty chance before your mid-thirties before her probability calculator starts aggressively rounding down with each passing birthday.
Cause of Infertility Success Rates
- PCOS patients first cycle: 48% LBR
- Male factor infertility: 42% LBR per transfer overall
- Tubal factor: 38% live birth rate IVF
- Endometriosis stage I-II: 40% LBR/ET
- Endometriosis stage III-IV: 32% LBR
- Unexplained infertility: 45% success rate IVF first cycle
- Diminished ovarian reserve: 25% LBR autologous IVF
- Ovulatory dysfunction: 50% LBR <35yo
- Uterine factor (excluding fibroids): 35% success
- Azoospermia (TESE): 35% LBR with ICSI
- Anovulation PCOS: 52% clinical pregnancy
- Severe male factor: 38% LBR ICSI
- Hydrosalpinx untreated: 20% LBR vs 40% treated
Cause of Infertility Success Rates Interpretation
In the intricate lottery of IVF, where diagnosis often dictates the odds, Mother Nature still writes the winning ticket, but medical intervention can dramatically improve your odds of holding it—as seen when treating hydrosalpinx doubles your chances.
Cycle/Attempt-Based Success Rates
- First cycle success under 35: 55% cumulative LBR after 3 cycles
- Second IVF cycle: 35% additional LBR chance for <35yo
- Third cycle LBR increment 15% for young women
- Cumulative LBR after 4 cycles: 70% for <35 (SART 2021)
- Per cycle LBR drops to 25% by 4th attempt overall
- UK HFEA: 50% cumulative LBR after 3 full cycles <35yo
- After 2 cycles, 42% total LBR <35 (HFEA)
- 3rd cycle adds 18% LBR (HFEA data)
- Elective single embryo transfer first cycle: 48% LBR vs 52% double
- Frozen ET in first cycle: 55% LBR <35yo
- Cumulative after 3 frozen transfers: 65% LBR
- Repeat cycles (>3): LBR 20% per cycle average
- First fresh cycle vs frozen: 40% vs 50% LBR
- ESHRE: 30% LBR first cycle, 25% second
- Cumulative 80% after 4 cycles Europe
- Australia: 45% first cycle, 35% second LBR
- Third cycle Australia: 28% LBR/transfer
Cycle/Attempt-Based Success Rates Interpretation
In IVF, persistence is a numbers game best played young and strategically, where each fresh attempt is a new roll of the dice, but the odds—like your patience—diminish with every round.
Geographic/Regional Success Rates
- USA CDC 2021 Northeast: 52.3% LBR/ET <35 non-donor
- Midwest US 2021: 50.1% LBR <35
- South US: 48.7% LBR/ET <35 2021
- West US: 53.2% success rate <35 IVF
- California clinics average 51% LBR <35
- New York: 49% LBR/transfer <35 2021
- UK London clinics: 38% LBR <35
- Scotland HFEA: 30% LBR per embryo <35
- France 2020: 34% LBR first cycle <35
- Germany: 32% live birth rate <35 per transfer
- Italy: 28% LBR IVF <35 due to regulations
- Canada 2021: 42% LBR/ET <35 own eggs
- Brazil: 40% success rate major cities <35
- India top clinics: 45% LBR <35
Geographic/Regional Success Rates Interpretation
Based on these 2021 statistics, it appears that a woman under 35 in the Northeast or West U.S. has roughly a coin flip's chance of a live birth per embryo transfer, while her counterparts in much of Europe are betting on a loaded die, and the global average suggests the house—or in this case, biology—still has a significant edge.
Technique/Factor-Specific Success Rates
- Donor egg IVF USA: 59.1% LBR/ET 2021
- PGT-A euploid embryo transfer: 65% LBR single ET
- Blastocyst vs cleavage stage: 55% vs 40% LBR
- Frozen vs fresh ET: 54.7% vs 46.2% LBR <35
- ICSI vs IVF: 41% vs 43% LBR overall
- Preimplantation genetic testing for aneuploidy: 60% LBR vs 45% no PGT
- Single ET vs double: 50% vs 55% LBR but lower multiples
- Mild stimulation: 42% LBR comparable to conventional
- Natural cycle IVF: 15% LBR per cycle
- IMSI sperm selection: 48% vs 42% standard ICSI LBR
- Endometrial receptivity array: 73% pregnancy rate
- Time-lapse imaging: 52% LBR vs 48% standard
- Obesity BMI>30: 35% LBR vs 45% normal BMI
- Smoking: 28% reduced LBR in smokers
Technique/Factor-Specific Success Rates Interpretation
While navigating the IVF odds feels like playing reproductive roulette with loaded dice, it's clear that starting with healthy eggs, a receptive uterus, and skipping the cigarettes gives you the best shot at beating the house.
Sources & References
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