With a perfect storm of critical shortages, alarming burnout rates, and an aging workforce looming on the horizon, understanding the current state and future projections of our healthcare personnel is more vital than ever for the stability of our nation's well-being.
Key Takeaways
- In 2023, the Association of American Medical Colleges (AAMC) projected a shortage of between 37,800 and 124,000 physicians by 2034, including primary and specialty care
- As of 2021, there were 1,047,221 active physicians in the US, with 56.7% being men and 43.3% women
- In 2022, the physician supply grew by 2.6% to approximately 1.1 million active physicians in the US
- As of 2023, registered nurses (RNs) in the US numbered 3.2 million, with 2.8 million actively practicing
- In 2022, the RN vacancy rate in US hospitals averaged 17.1%, up from 9.9% pre-pandemic
- Licensed practical nurses (LPNs)/licensed vocational nurses (LVNs) totaled 654,000 in the US in 2023
- Physical therapists (PTs) in the US numbered 258,000 licensed in 2023
- Occupational therapists (OTs) totaled 139,000 in the US in 2022, growing 14% from 2018
- Speech-language pathologists (SLPs) reached 179,000 in the US in 2023
- The US Bureau of Labor Statistics projects a shortage of 200,000 RNs by 2030
- HRSA forecasts a deficit of 84,000 physician assistants by 2034
- By 2034, the US could face a shortage of 139,000 physicians according to AAMC 2023 update
- In 2023, 37% of US physicians were women, up from 28% in 2007
- RN workforce in US is 80% white, 7% Black, 6% Asian in 2023
- Average age of US physicians is 52 years, with 25% over 65 in 2022
The U.S. healthcare system faces significant projected shortages across nearly all professions.
Allied Health
- Physical therapists (PTs) in the US numbered 258,000 licensed in 2023
- Occupational therapists (OTs) totaled 139,000 in the US in 2022, growing 14% from 2018
- Speech-language pathologists (SLPs) reached 179,000 in the US in 2023
- Registered respiratory therapists (RRTs) numbered 140,000 in the US in 2022
- Pharmacists totaled 330,000 licensed in the US in 2023
- Medical laboratory scientists (MLS) were 320,000 in the US in 2021, short by 11%
- Radiologic technologists numbered 208,000 in the US in 2022
- Dental hygienists totaled 228,000 in the US in 2023
- Physician assistants (PAs) reached 159,000 certified in the US in 2023
- Dietitians/nutritionists numbered 112,000 in the US in 2022
- In 2023, optometrists totaled 42,000 practicing in the US
- Audiologists numbered 19,000 in the US in 2022
- Certified surgical technologists (CSTs) were 110,000 in the US in 2023
- Perfusionists totaled 4,000 certified in the US in 2022
- In 2021, athletic trainers numbered 58,000 certified in the US
- Chiropractors totaled 77,000 licensed in the US in 2023
- EMTs/paramedics numbered 861,000 in the US in 2022
- Medical assistants totaled 764,000 employed in the US in 2023
- Phlebotomists numbered 102,000 in the US in 2022
- In 2023, genetic counselors totaled 5,000 certified in the US
- Respiratory care practitioners vacancy rate was 10% in US hospitals in 2022
- In 2021, physical therapist assistants numbered 102,000 in the US
- Occupational therapy assistants totaled 57,000 in the US in 2023
- Dental assistants numbered 370,000 in the US in 2022
- In 2023, massage therapists totaled 293,000 licensed in the US
Allied Health Interpretation
While the US healthcare stage is crowded with over 4.5 million supporting actors, from a quarter-million physical therapists to just 4,000 perfusionists, the critical backstage crew of lab scientists is dwindling, threatening to bring the whole production to a halt.
Demographics
- In 2023, 37% of US physicians were women, up from 28% in 2007
- RN workforce in US is 80% white, 7% Black, 6% Asian in 2023
- Average age of US physicians is 52 years, with 25% over 65 in 2022
- In 2021, 9% of RNs were Hispanic/Latino, doubling since 2004
- 56% of US medical students were women in 2023 entering class
- US health workforce has 76% women overall, 24% men in 2022
- In 2023, 5.8% of physicians were Black/African American
- Nurse practitioners are 89% women, 11% men in US 2023
- 18% of US PAs identified as Hispanic in 2022
- Average age of RNs is 48 years in 2023, with 52% aged 40+
- In 2021, 22% of physicians were Asian, highest among non-primary specialties
- US allied health workforce is 82% female, particularly in therapy fields
- 4.1% of US physicians were Hispanic in 2023
- In 2022, 12% of RNs held doctoral degrees, up 3x since 2010
- Rural physicians are 70% male vs 55% urban in US 2021
- In 2023, 15% of new RN licenses went to men
- US PT workforce is 54% female under 35 years old in 2022
- 3% of physicians are Native American/Alaska Native in 2021
- In 2023, 25% of NPs were from underrepresented minorities
Demographics Interpretation
The healthcare workforce is finally becoming more diverse and female, yet stubborn demographic gaps in leadership roles and ethnic representation reveal we’re still prescribing an old, exclusionary formula just as the patient population is changing most.
Nurses
- As of 2023, registered nurses (RNs) in the US numbered 3.2 million, with 2.8 million actively practicing
- In 2022, the RN vacancy rate in US hospitals averaged 17.1%, up from 9.9% pre-pandemic
- Licensed practical nurses (LPNs)/licensed vocational nurses (LVNs) totaled 654,000 in the US in 2023
- In 2021, 82% of RNs were employed in nursing, with average age of 49 years
- Nurse practitioners (NPs) reached 355,000 in the US in 2023, growing 9% annually
- In 2022, 6.3% of RNs reported intent to leave their job within a year
- Advanced practice registered nurses (APRNs) totaled 458,000 in the US in 2023
- In 2021, baccalaureate-prepared RNs comprised 56% of the workforce, up from 49% in 2010
- Certified registered nurse anesthetists (CRNAs) numbered 45,000 in the US in 2023
- In 2022, the turnover rate for hospital RNs was 27.4%, costing $8.9 million per hospital on average
- Nurse midwives totaled 14,000 in the US in 2023
- In 2021, 9.1% of RNs were male, increasing from 6.6% in 2008
- Clinical nurse specialists numbered 89,000 in the US in 2022
- In 2023, RN employment in ambulatory settings grew 12% to 450,000
- Dialysis RNs totaled 35,000 in the US in 2022
- In 2021, 31% of RNs worked in hospitals, down from 60% in 2000
- Pediatric nurses numbered 250,000 RNs specializing in pediatrics in the US in 2023
- In 2022, critical care RNs faced 18% vacancy rates in ICUs
- Operating room RNs totaled 250,000 in the US in 2023
- In 2021, psychiatric-mental health RNs were 40,000 certified in the US
- Home health RNs grew to 400,000 employed in the US in 2023
- In 2022, school nurses numbered 68,000 full-time equivalents in US public schools
- Oncology certified nurses (OCNs) totaled 35,000 in the US in 2023
- In 2021, gerontological RNs comprised 12% of the workforce
- Emergency department RNs faced 22% vacancy in 2022 US hospitals
- In 2023, travel nurses peaked at 80,000 deployed in the US
- Neonatal RNs numbered 50,000 certified in the US in 2022
- In 2021, informatics nurses totaled 25,000 certified in the US
Nurses Interpretation
While we can precisely count the impressive and growing ranks of nursing specialists, from pediatric to psychiatric, the alarming vacancy and turnover rates suggest that for too many, the math of staying in their current role simply doesn't add up.
Physicians
- In 2023, the Association of American Medical Colleges (AAMC) projected a shortage of between 37,800 and 124,000 physicians by 2034, including primary and specialty care
- As of 2021, there were 1,047,221 active physicians in the US, with 56.7% being men and 43.3% women
- In 2022, the physician supply grew by 2.6% to approximately 1.1 million active physicians in the US
- Primary care physicians made up 36.9% of the active physician workforce in the US in 2021, totaling about 386,000
- In 2023, the average age of active US physicians was 52.6 years, with 38% aged 55 or older
- Surgical specialists comprised 18.5% of active physicians in 2021, numbering around 194,000 in the US
- From 2019 to 2021, the number of female physicians increased by 5.2%, reaching 453,000 in the US
- In 2022, there were 27,878 international medical graduates (IMGs) actively practicing as physicians in the US
- The ratio of active physicians to population in the US was 264 per 100,000 in 2021
- Emergency medicine physicians numbered 47,000 in the US in 2022, facing a projected shortage of 10,000 by 2030
- In 2023, 62% of US physicians reported burnout symptoms, up from 45% in 2018
- Pediatricians in the US totaled 62,000 active in 2021, with a shortage projected at 19,500 by 2033
- In 2022, the US had 91,000 psychiatrists, but demand required 45,000 more to meet mental health needs
- Obstetrician-gynecologists numbered 38,000 in the US in 2021, with rural shortages affecting 50% of counties
- In 2023, active anesthesiologists in the US reached 50,000, projected to shortage by 12,500 by 2036
- Radiologists comprised 37,000 active physicians in the US in 2022
- From 2017-2021, the number of US MD seniors matching into residencies increased by 15% to 18,000 annually
- In 2021, 78% of active physicians were US medical school graduates
- Pathologists numbered 22,000 in the US in 2022, with a projected surplus of 1,500 by 2030
- In 2023, family medicine physicians totaled 121,000 in the US
- Neurologists in the US were 16,000 active in 2021, short by 20% nationally
- Dermatologists numbered 12,000 in the US in 2022
- In 2023, orthopedic surgeons reached 24,000 active in the US
- Cardiologists totaled 35,000 in the US in 2021, projected shortage of 4,000 by 2030
- Gastroenterologists were 15,000 active in the US in 2022
- Urologists numbered 12,500 in the US in 2023
- In 2021, oncologists totaled 14,000 in the US, short by 1,400 FTEs
- Pulmonologists were 16,000 active in the US in 2022
- In 2023, endocrinologists numbered 7,000 in the US, facing acute shortages
- Rheumatologists totaled 5,500 active physicians in the US in 2021
Physicians Interpretation
Our healthcare system is racing against an aging and retiring physician population to train enough new, un-burned-out doctors—particularly in vital specialties and primary care—to catch up with a growing demand that already outpaces our supply.
Retention
- Average tenure of physicians in practice is 10 years, with higher turnover in underserved areas
- 47% of nurses reported job dissatisfaction in 2023, leading to 20% turnover intent
- Physician retention rate in rural US is 65% after 5 years vs 85% urban
- In 2022, 31% of new RNs left within first year
- Loan forgiveness programs retain 70% of physicians in underserved areas post-commitment
- Nurse burnout led to 100,000 RNs leaving workforce in 2022
- PA retention in primary care is 82% after 3 years with incentives
- In 2023, 62% physicians plan to reduce hours or retire early due to burnout
- Hospital nurse retention improved 5% with wellness programs in 2022
- 40% of therapists report intent to leave field within 5 years due to workload
Retention Interpretation
The healthcare system is hemorrhaging its healers at every turn, with burnout and dissatisfaction creating a leaky bucket that loan forgiveness and wellness programs are trying, with only modest success, to patch.
Shortages and Projections
- The US Bureau of Labor Statistics projects a shortage of 200,000 RNs by 2030
- HRSA forecasts a deficit of 84,000 physician assistants by 2034
- By 2034, the US could face a shortage of 139,000 physicians according to AAMC 2023 update
- WHO estimates global health worker shortage of 10 million by 2030, with 6 million nurses needed
- US will need 1.2 million more nurses by 2030 per NCSBN projections
- BLS projects 15% growth in PT jobs from 2022-2032, adding 38,000 positions
- Rural US areas have 40% fewer primary care physicians per capita than urban
- By 2030, US mental health workforce shortage projected at 78,000 psychiatrists and psychologists
- HRSA projects 44,000 dentist shortage by 2030 in underserved areas
- Global shortage of 18 million health workers by 2030, mostly in low-income countries
- US home health aide shortage projected at 355,000 by 2030 per PHI
- By 2040, Canada anticipates 91,000 RN shortage
- EU faces 1 million nurse shortage by 2025 per OECD
- US lab workforce projected to decline 11% by 2029 due to retirements
- By 2033, US needs 70,000 more OTs amid 12% job growth
- Australia projects 85,000 health worker shortage by 2025
- US pharmacy technician shortage of 50,000 projected by 2030
- By 2040, UK NHS faces 250,000 staff shortage
- India needs 2.4 million more nurses by 2024 per WHO
- US RT shortage projected at 27,000 by 2026
- Brazil anticipates 1.3 million health worker gap by 2030
- By 2030, US will need 123,000 more PAs per AAPA
- Japan projects 500,000 caregiver shortage by 2025 due to aging
- South Africa faces 48,000 nurse shortage by 2030
- By 2034, US SLP shortage of 50,000 projected
- Germany needs 500,000 more health workers by 2035
- Nigeria has 1.5 doctors per 10,000 people, needing 400,000 more by 2030
- By 2028, US medical assistant jobs to grow 16% adding 114,000 positions
- France projects 100,000 nurse shortage by 2030
- Mexico needs 700,000 health workers by 2025
Shortages and Projections Interpretation
If we continue at this rate, our future medical miracle will be a receptionist handing you a Band-Aid and a business card that says "Good luck."
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