While consumer drives dwindle, the relentless demand from data centers has supercharged the hard drive industry, with global revenue soaring to $24.5 billion in 2022 and the enterprise segment alone accounting for a staggering $18.7 billion in 2023.
Key Takeaways
- Global hard disk drive (HDD) market revenue reached $24.5 billion in 2022, up 12.3% year-over-year driven by demand for high-capacity drives in data centers.
- HDD industry revenue in the enterprise segment hit $18.7 billion in 2023, accounting for 76% of total HDD market revenue.
- Nearline HDD market generated $16.2 billion in revenue during 2022, fueled by cloud storage expansion.
- Worldwide HDD shipments totaled 414 million units in 2022, down 4% from 2021.
- Enterprise HDD shipments reached 133 million units in 2023.
- Nearline HDD units shipped hit 268 million in 2022.
- HAMR technology enables 1.4 Tb/in² areal density in production HDDs.
- Typical enterprise HDD capacity in 2023: 18-22TB using UltraSMR.
- CMR vs SMR: 80% of enterprise shipments were SMR in 2023 for higher capacity.
- Seagate market share in HDD shipments: 43% in 2023.
- Western Digital HDD market share: 41% of units shipped in 2023.
- Toshiba held 16% HDD market share in enterprise segment 2023.
- Average HDD price per unit was $68 in Q4 2023.
- Cost per GB for nearline HDDs dropped to $12.50/TB in 2023.
- 20TB HDD street price averaged $350 per unit in 2023.
Cloud storage demand drives hard drive industry growth despite consumer decline.
Market Share and Manufacturers
- Seagate market share in HDD shipments: 43% in 2023.
- Western Digital HDD market share: 41% of units shipped in 2023.
- Toshiba held 16% HDD market share in enterprise segment 2023.
- Seagate enterprise nearline share: 45% in Q4 2023.
- WD Ultrastar brand share in data center HDDs: 38%.
- Toshiba MG series market share in surveillance: 22% in 2023.
- Combined Seagate-WD duopoly controls 84% of HDD shipments.
- Seagate Mozaic 3+ HAMR share: 100% pioneer in 2024.
- Client HDD market: WD 52%, Seagate 40%, Toshiba 8%.
- High-capacity (16TB+) HDD share: Seagate 48%.
- Seagate revenue share of total HDD market: 50% in 2023.
- WD share in helium-filled HDDs: 42%.
- Toshiba share growth: +2% to 17% in 2023 nearline.
- Seagate cloud OEM share: 55% with hyperscalers.
- WD NAS HDD market share: 60% via IronWolf/Red series.
- Enterprise SAS HDD: Seagate 47%, WD 43%.
- Surveillance HDD vendors: WD 35%, Seagate 30%, Toshiba 25%.
- SMR HDD market: Seagate 60% with Exos X SMR.
- 20TB HDD segment: Seagate 52%, WD 35%.
- Global OEM HDD supply: Seagate-WD 90%.
- Toshiba enterprise capacity share: 18% in 2023.
- Seagate FY2023 unit share: 44.2%.
- WD Q4 2023 share spike to 43.5%.
- Lesser vendors (Hitachi remnants, etc.): <1% share.
- Hyperscale HDD procurement share: Seagate 51%.
- WD share in 22TB+ early shipments: 40%.
- Seagate surveillance share: 28% in 2023.
- Toshiba client HDD share: 10%.
- Overall revenue share: Seagate 49%, WD 41%, Toshiba 10%.
Market Share and Manufacturers Interpretation
The hard drive market is a high-stakes duopoly where Seagate and Western Digital fiercely carve up nearly every segment like a Thanksgiving turkey, leaving Toshiba to diligently scavenge the enterprise and surveillance scraps, all while the ghost of Hitachi watches from the corner with less than a crumb.
Market Size and Revenue
- Global hard disk drive (HDD) market revenue reached $24.5 billion in 2022, up 12.3% year-over-year driven by demand for high-capacity drives in data centers.
- HDD industry revenue in the enterprise segment hit $18.7 billion in 2023, accounting for 76% of total HDD market revenue.
- Nearline HDD market generated $16.2 billion in revenue during 2022, fueled by cloud storage expansion.
- Total HDD market value was estimated at $23.8 billion in 2021, with a CAGR of 8.5% projected to 2028.
- Client HDD revenue dropped to $3.4 billion in 2022 from $4.1 billion in 2021 due to SSD shift.
- HDD revenue from hyperscale cloud providers exceeded $12 billion in 2023.
- Global HDD market revenue forecast for 2025 is $28.9 billion, per OMDIA analysis.
- Enterprise HDD revenue grew 15.2% to $10.5 billion in Q4 2023 alone.
- HDD market in Asia-Pacific region contributed $11.3 billion in 2022, 46% of global total.
- Capacity Media HDD revenue reached $20.1 billion in 2023, up from $17.8 billion prior year.
- HDD industry revenue per exabyte shipped averaged $18.50 in 2022.
- Total HDD revenue from surveillance applications was $2.1 billion in 2023.
- HDD market revenue CAGR expected at 7.9% from 2023-2030, reaching $35.2 billion.
- Q3 2023 HDD revenue surged 25% QoQ to $6.8 billion.
- Western Digital reported $11.2 billion HDD revenue for FY2023.
- Seagate HDD revenue for 2023 fiscal year was $13.1 billion.
- HDD revenue share from 20TB+ drives was $4.7 billion in 2023.
- Global HDD OEM revenue totaled $1.9 billion in 2022.
- HDD market revenue in Europe grew 9.1% to $4.2 billion in 2023.
- Nearline HDD revenue per unit averaged $120 in Q4 2023.
- HDD industry revenue from HAMR technology pilots reached $500 million in 2023.
- Total HDD revenue forecast for 2024 is $26.4 billion.
- Client PC HDD revenue fell to $2.8 billion in 2023.
- Enterprise SSD-competitive HDD revenue was $8.9 billion in 2022.
- HDD revenue from video surveillance hit $1.8 billion in 2022.
- Global HDD market revenue per PB shipped was $15.20 in 2023.
- Toshiba HDD revenue for 2023 was $3.4 billion.
- HDD cloud storage revenue segment was $15.6 billion in 2023.
- Q1 2024 HDD revenue estimated at $5.9 billion, up 8% YoY.
- HDD market revenue from 18TB drives alone was $3.2 billion in 2023.
Market Size and Revenue Interpretation
While the death of the PC hard drive is greatly exaggerated, the industry is clearly having a midlife crisis, trading its old client PC flannel for a tailored suit as it moves into the sprawling data center penthouse to feed the cloud's insatiable appetite for capacity.
Pricing and Economics
- Average HDD price per unit was $68 in Q4 2023.
- Cost per GB for nearline HDDs dropped to $12.50/TB in 2023.
- 20TB HDD street price averaged $350 per unit in 2023.
- Enterprise HDD ASP rose 10% to $145 in Q3 2023.
- Client HDD prices fell 15% YoY to $45 average.
- Cost per TB for 18TB drives: $15.20 in bulk.
- Surveillance HDD pricing: $0.018/GB for 14TB models.
- HAMR premium pricing: +20% over SMR equivalents.
- HDD price erosion rate: 25% annually per TB.
- Q1 2024 nearline ASP: $130 per drive.
- Seagate Exos 20TB list price: $499, street $320.
- WD Red Pro 22TB: $550 retail average.
- Toshiba 20TB MG10: $380 in volume OEM.
- $/TB trend: $20/TB in 2020 to $13/TB in 2023.
- Enterprise SAS HDD premium: 30% over SATA.
- Bulk hyperscaler pricing: $10/TB for 24TB+.
- Desktop 4TB HDD: $80 average retail 2023.
- SMR discount: 10-15% vs CMR same capacity.
- Annual capex savings from HDD price drops: $2B industry-wide.
- 16TB HDD ASP decline: 18% YoY to $220.
- NAS HDD bundle pricing: $25/TB effective.
- Q4 2023 price stabilization: +5% for high-capacity.
- Cost per IOPS for HDD vs SSD: HDD $0.001/IOPS.
- OEM volume discounts: 40% off list for 100k+ units.
- Helium HDD premium faded to 2% over air-filled.
- 30TB pilot pricing: $25/TB initial.
- Surveillance 8TB: $140, down 20% YoY.
Pricing and Economics Interpretation
In an industry where you can pay more for less faster storage elsewhere, hard drives quietly chuckle as their cost per gigabyte keeps plummeting, letting you hoard mountains of data for what feels like the spare change found in your couch cushions.
Production and Shipments
- Worldwide HDD shipments totaled 414 million units in 2022, down 4% from 2021.
- Enterprise HDD shipments reached 133 million units in 2023.
- Nearline HDD units shipped hit 268 million in 2022.
- Client HDD shipments dropped to 98 million units in 2023 from 112 million in 2022.
- Q4 2023 HDD shipments surged to 140 million units, up 18% QoQ.
- Seagate shipped 223 million HDDs in FY2023.
- Western Digital HDD shipments were 210 million units in FY2023.
- Toshiba shipped 65 million HDD units in 2023.
- 20TB+ HDD shipments exceeded 10 million units in 2023.
- Surveillance HDD shipments totaled 45 million units in 2022.
- HAMR HDD pilot shipments reached 1.2 million units in 2023.
- Average HDD shipment capacity per unit was 3.7TB in 2023.
- Enterprise HDD exabytes shipped hit 492 EB in 2022.
- Global HDD production capacity utilization was 92% in Q3 2023.
- Nearline HDD shipments grew 5% YoY to 275 million in 2023.
- Desktop HDD units shipped: 35 million in 2023.
- Mobile HDD shipments fell to 12 million units in 2023.
- Cloud hyperscaler HDD shipments: 180 million units in 2023.
- 16TB HDD shipments peaked at 85 million units in 2022.
- Total exabytes shipped worldwide: 1,200 EB in 2023.
- Q1 2024 HDD shipments: 112 million units, flat YoY.
- Enterprise SSD replacement HDD shipments: 50 million in 2023.
- Asia-Pacific HDD production output: 380 million units in 2023.
- Video surveillance HDD shipments up 7% to 48 million in 2023.
- 22TB HDD initial shipments: 2.5 million units in late 2023.
- OEM HDD shipments to branded PC makers: 25 million in 2023.
- Total HDD factory output in Thailand: 200 million units/year capacity.
- Average annual HDD shipments forecast: 400 million units through 2027.
- Largest HDD ever shipped: 30TB SMR drive, 500k units in 2024 pilots.
- Average areal density in shipped HDDs: 1,100 Gb/in² in 2023.
- HDD average capacity shipped reached 4.2TB per drive in 2023.
Production and Shipments Interpretation
The party might be quieter overall, but the data center's rave is still going strong as client PCs leave with their spinning toys and the cloud keeps ordering bigger drinks.
Technology and Capacity
- HAMR technology enables 1.4 Tb/in² areal density in production HDDs.
- Typical enterprise HDD capacity in 2023: 18-22TB using UltraSMR.
- CMR vs SMR: 80% of enterprise shipments were SMR in 2023 for higher capacity.
- Heat-Assisted Magnetic Recording (HAMR) first mass-produced in 2024 at 30TB.
- HDD platter count average dropped to 7.5 in 20TB+ drives.
- Energy-Assisted Recording (EAR) roadmap targets 50TB by 2028.
- Shingled Magnetic Recording (SMR) capacity gain: 25% over CMR at same platters.
- Triple-Stage Actuator (TSA) used in 90% of 18TB+ HDDs for precision.
- Helium-filled HDDs dominate 95% of enterprise capacity shipments.
- Bit Error Rate (BER) improved to 1x10^-17 in latest Gen5 HDDs.
- HDD MTBF rated at 2.5 million hours for Exos X20 20TB model.
- Power consumption per TB: 0.45W for 22TB nearline drives.
- Sequential read/write speeds: 285/265 MB/s in 24TB IronWolf Pro.
- Vibration tolerance: 12.5G operating for rack-mounted HDDs.
- Warranty periods: 5 years standard for 90% of enterprise HDDs.
- Annual failure rate (AFR): 1.2% for HDDs over 10TB in data centers.
- Roadmap capacity: 40TB HAMR by 2026, 50TB MAMR by 2027.
- Platter size standard: 9.5mm height for 3.5-inch enterprise drives.
- Data recovery rate from failed HDDs: 92% with professional tools.
- IOPS for random 4K: 170/550 for WD Gold 20TB.
- Acoustic noise level: 20dB idle, 32dB seek for consumer NAS HDDs.
- Operating temperature range: 5-60°C for rugged enterprise HDDs.
- Cache size average: 512MB in 20TB+ capacity HDDs.
- Rotation speed: 7200 RPM standard for 99% high-capacity drives.
- Interface: SATA 6Gb/s and SAS 12Gb/s dual support in enterprise.
- Write endurance: 550TB/year for surveillance-optimized HDDs.
- Sector size: 4K native in all modern enterprise HDDs.
Technology and Capacity Interpretation
While the hard drive industry's relentless pursuit of greater capacity through technologies like HAMR and SMR is truly impressive, it's the staggering 2.5 million-hour reliability, the near-silent 20dB operation, and the 92% data recovery rate that quietly assure us our ever-expanding digital hoard is resting on a shockingly robust foundation.
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