The global grain industry is on a roller coaster of record harvests and crushing losses, where a single percentage point in wheat, corn, rice, or soybean production can sway economies and empty shelves.
Key Takeaways
- Global wheat production in the 2022/23 marketing year totaled 784.0 million metric tons, down 0.7 percent from the previous year due to lower yields in key regions like the EU and Russia.
- U.S. corn production for 2023 is projected at 15.2 billion bushels, reflecting a record yield of 177.3 bushels per acre.
- China's rice production in 2022 reached 212.4 million metric tons, up 0.7% year-over-year supported by favorable weather.
- World corn consumption in 2023/24 projected at 1,199 million metric tons, up 1.5% driven by feed demand.
- U.S. wheat disappearance for 2023/24 forecast at 965 million bushels for food, seed, and industrial use.
- China corn imports for feed use in 2023 estimated at 40 million metric tons.
- U.S. corn exports in 2023/24 marketing year projected at 2,275 million bushels.
- Global wheat trade volume 2023/24 forecast at 207.5 million metric tons, up 3.2%.
- U.S. soybean exports 2023/24 at 1,825 million bushels, mainly to China.
- CBOT wheat futures price averaged $6.85 per bushel in 2023.
- U.S. corn farm price received 2023/24 projected at $4.65 per bushel.
- Global rice price index FAO rose 20% in 2023 to 130 points.
- Global wheat production emitted 1.2 Gt CO2eq in 2020, 2.6% of total GHG.
- U.S. corn farming water use 2022 averaged 11 inches per acre.
- Rice paddy fields contribute 8-12% of global methane emissions.
Global grain production and trade fluctuate with mixed regional yields and weather challenges.
Consumption
- World corn consumption in 2023/24 projected at 1,199 million metric tons, up 1.5% driven by feed demand.
- U.S. wheat disappearance for 2023/24 forecast at 965 million bushels for food, seed, and industrial use.
- China corn imports for feed use in 2023 estimated at 40 million metric tons.
- Global rice consumption 2023/24 at 534.5 million metric tons (milled), up 1.2%.
- EU soybean meal consumption for animal feed in 2022 reached 28 million metric tons.
- U.S. corn used for ethanol production 2023/24 projected at 5.45 billion bushels.
- India wheat consumption for food in 2022/23 at 100 million metric tons.
- Brazil corn consumption 2023/24 forecast at 105 million metric tons, mostly for feed.
- Global barley feed use 2023/24 at 137 million metric tons.
- Japan wheat imports for milling consumption 2023 at 5.6 million metric tons.
- U.S. rice domestic use 2023/24 at 118 million cwt.
- Mexico corn consumption for feed 2023 at 28 million metric tons.
- World soybean crush for oil and meal 2023/24 projected at 407 million metric tons.
- Russia wheat food consumption stable at 40 million metric tons annually.
- Egypt rice consumption per capita 2022 at 47 kg, highest globally.
- U.S. exports of corn feed and residual use 2023/24 at 56.5 million metric tons equivalent.
- Global sorghum food use 2023 at 11 million metric tons, mainly in Africa.
- Canada barley malting use 2023 at 2.5 million metric tons.
- Turkey wheat consumption for bread 2022 at 19 million metric tons.
- Southeast Asia rice consumption growth 1.5% annually to 2028.
- U.S. wheat food use 2023/24 at 910 million bushels.
- China rice consumption 2023 at 155 million metric tons.
- Argentina soybean consumption for crush 2023 at 48 million metric tons.
- Global corn food use 2023/24 at 135 million metric tons.
- Indonesia wheat consumption 2023 at 11.5 million metric tons, all imported.
- U.S. soybean oil domestic use 2023/24 projected at 12.2 billion pounds.
- Nigeria sorghum consumption 2022 at 7 million metric tons for food and beer.
- Global wheat consumption 2023/24 at 789 million metric tons.
Consumption Interpretation
From the United States using billions of bushels of corn to power its cars, to China and India devouring hundreds of millions of tons of grain to feed its billions, and right down to Egypt leading the world in heaping rice plates per person, these numbers ultimately tell a single, voracious story: humanity's insatiable appetite, measured in metric tons, is how we literally fuel, feed, and ferment our civilization.
Prices
- CBOT wheat futures price averaged $6.85 per bushel in 2023.
- U.S. corn farm price received 2023/24 projected at $4.65 per bushel.
- Global rice price index FAO rose 20% in 2023 to 130 points.
- Soybean futures on CBOT hit $14.29 per bushel high in May 2023.
- Wheat CFR Black Sea price 2023 average $260 per metric ton.
- U.S. No.2 yellow corn FOB Gulf 2023 averaged $237 per ton.
- Barley malt price in EU 2023 at €350 per ton.
- Indian parboiled rice FOB price 2023 $480 per metric ton.
- Canola crush margin in Canada 2023 averaged CAD 120 per ton.
- Sorghum price U.S. Gulf 2023 $250 per metric ton.
- Oats futures price Minneapolis 2023 $3.80 per bushel.
- Rye price in Germany 2023 €280 per ton.
- Millet wholesale price India 2023 Rs 25/kg.
- U.S. wheat HRW protein 12% FOB $285 per ton 2023 avg.
- Brazilian soybean FOB Santos 2023 $500 per metric ton average.
- Thai 5% broken rice export price 2023 $600/ton peak.
- EU feed wheat price 2023 €250 per ton.
- U.S. soybean oil price 2023/24 $0.48 per pound.
- Global corn price index World Bank 2023 averaged 180 points.
- Argentine soybean meal FOB Up River 2023 $420 per ton.
- Distillers dried grains price U.S. Midwest 2023 $220 per ton.
- Australian wheat ASW FOB 2023 $320 per metric ton.
- Chinese corn CIF price 2023 2,800 yuan per ton.
- U.S. rice long grain milled 2023 $18.50/cwt.
- Global wheat price volatility 2023 standard deviation 25%.
- CBOT soybean meal futures 2023 average $430 per short ton.
- French soft wheat Euronext 2023 €220/ton low.
- U.S. corn grower price 2023 $5.25/bushel all wheat.
- FAO Cereal Price Index 2023 averaged 125.4 points.
Prices Interpretation
From Thai rice hitting $600 to Argentine meal at $420, the grain market's 2023 story was one of volatile but universally expensive breadbasket economics.
Production
- Global wheat production in the 2022/23 marketing year totaled 784.0 million metric tons, down 0.7 percent from the previous year due to lower yields in key regions like the EU and Russia.
- U.S. corn production for 2023 is projected at 15.2 billion bushels, reflecting a record yield of 177.3 bushels per acre.
- China's rice production in 2022 reached 212.4 million metric tons, up 0.7% year-over-year supported by favorable weather.
- Brazil soybean output for 2022/23 was estimated at 155 million metric tons, boosted by expanded planted area to 44.5 million hectares.
- India wheat harvest in 2022/23 marketing year hit 112.0 million tons, the second highest on record despite early heat waves.
- EU corn production in 2023 forecasted at 66.6 million metric tons, down 4% from prior year due to dry conditions in France.
- Australia's barley production for 2022/23 reached 4.2 million tons, recovering from drought with yields averaging 2.1 tons per hectare.
- Argentina wheat production in 2022/23 estimated at 14.5 million metric tons, down sharply from 20.5 million due to La Niña impacts.
- U.S. soybean production 2023 projected at 4.15 billion bushels with average yield of 50.7 bushels per acre.
- Russia corn output 2022/23 at 12.0 million metric tons, up 20% from previous year on increased acreage.
- Global coarse grain production 2023/24 forecast at 1,452 million metric tons, up 1% led by corn recovery.
- Ukraine wheat production 2023/24 estimated at 22.0 million metric tons, down 7% due to conflict disruptions.
- Canada canola production 2023 at 14.8 million metric tons from 8.9 million hectares planted.
- Turkey barley production 2022/23 at 7.0 million metric tons, stable despite regional dryness.
- Mexico corn production 2023/24 projected at 27.2 million metric tons, up slightly on irrigation improvements.
- France wheat production 2023 at 36.5 million metric tons, down 20% from quality issues and weather.
- Global rice production 2023/24 forecast at 529.7 million metric tons (milled basis), up 1.4%.
- U.S. sorghum production 2023 at 447 million bushels, yield 67.2 bushels per acre.
- Kazakhstan wheat output 2022/23 at 17.4 million metric tons, down 15% on lower yields.
- Thailand rice production 2022 at 34.5 million metric tons (paddy equivalent).
- South Africa corn production 2023/24 white corn at 7.3 million tons, total maize 15.8 million tons.
- Egypt wheat production 2023 at 9.45 million metric tons from 3.55 million hectares.
- Global oat production 2022 at 25.8 million metric tons, led by Russia and Canada.
- U.S. wheat production 2023 at 1,989 million bushels, all wheat yield 49.4 bushels per acre.
- Vietnam rice production 2022/23 at 43.5 million metric tons (milled).
- Global rye production 2022 at 12.9 million metric tons, primarily in Europe.
- Paraguay soybean production 2022/23 record 10.5 million metric tons.
- Poland corn production 2023 estimated at 7.5 million metric tons.
- Global millet production 2022 at 29.6 million metric tons, key in Africa and Asia.
- U.S. rice production 2023 at 159.3 million cwt, long grain 118.9 million cwt.
Production Interpretation
The global grain market is a high-stakes seesaw where booming harvests in one corner battle crippling droughts and conflict in another, reminding us that while human innovation pushes yields higher, our fundamental dependence on favorable weather remains deliciously, and sometimes devastatingly, unchanged.
Sustainability
- Global wheat production emitted 1.2 Gt CO2eq in 2020, 2.6% of total GHG.
- U.S. corn farming water use 2022 averaged 11 inches per acre.
- Rice paddy fields contribute 8-12% of global methane emissions.
- Soybean deforestation in Brazil 2022 linked to 1.7 million ha loss.
- Global grain N fertilizer use efficiency only 47% in 2019.
- U.S. wheat no-till adoption 2022 at 35% of acreage.
- EU corn crop yield gap closed to 20% of potential by 2020.
- Global barley irrigation accounts for 20% of production water footprint.
- Pesticide use in U.S. corn 2022 at 0.25 kg active ingredient per planted acre.
- Sustainable rice intensification in Asia boosts yields 20-50% with less water.
- Global wheat biodiversity loss 75% since 1900.
- U.S. soybean cover crop use increased to 5% of acres in 2022.
- Corn stover removal for bioenergy limited to 30-50% to maintain soil health.
- Global grain soil erosion rate 12 tons per hectare per year average.
- Precision agriculture in U.S. grains reduces N use by 15%.
- Rice ratooning systems in China save 20% water and increase yield 15%.
- Organic grain production U.S. 2022 at 1.1 million acres, 0.5% total.
- Global P fertilizer surplus in grains leads to 10 Mt P loss yearly.
- Conservation tillage in Brazilian soybeans covers 80% of area 2023.
- U.S. corn GHG emissions per bushel declined 30% since 2000.
- Alternate wetting drying rice cuts methane 48% without yield loss.
- Wheat genetic improvement increased resource use efficiency 1.2% per year since 1980.
- Global grain supply chain carbon footprint 1.5 Gt CO2eq annually.
- Regenerative ag in grains sequesters 0.4 tC/ha/year extra.
- U.S. sorghum drought tolerance reduces irrigation 25%.
- EU grain CAP subsidies support 40% sustainable practices adoption.
- Mycotoxin contamination in grains affects 25% of global production.
- Precision N management in rice saves 20-30 kg N/ha.
- Global grain waste post-harvest 14% of production.
- U.S. wheat water productivity 2022 at 1.1 kg/m3.
Sustainability Interpretation
Our grain systems feed the world with an awkward mix of remarkable ingenuity and staggering inefficiency, where every bite of progress seems to come with a side of environmental regret.
Trade
- U.S. corn exports in 2023/24 marketing year projected at 2,275 million bushels.
- Global wheat trade volume 2023/24 forecast at 207.5 million metric tons, up 3.2%.
- U.S. soybean exports 2023/24 at 1,825 million bushels, mainly to China.
- Russia wheat exports 2023/24 projected at 47 million metric tons.
- Brazil corn exports 2023/24 record 54 million metric tons.
- EU wheat exports 2023/24 at 27 million metric tons.
- Ukraine corn shipments 2023 despite war at 25 million metric tons via Black Sea corridor.
- Canada canola exports 2023 at 11.2 million metric tons, 80% to Asia.
- Argentina soybean exports 2023 at 6.5 million metric tons (beans).
- U.S. wheat exports 2023/24 forecast at 750 million bushels.
- China corn imports 2023/24 projected at 9.5 million metric tons.
- Australia barley exports 2023/24 at 5.5 million metric tons to Saudi Arabia.
- India rice exports 2023 basmati at 4.8 million metric tons.
- Mexico wheat imports from U.S. 2023 at 3.0 million metric tons.
- Turkey corn imports 2023 at 10.5 million metric tons.
- Global rice trade 2023/24 at 53.8 million metric tons.
- U.S. sorghum exports 2023/24 at 175 million bushels to China.
- Kazakhstan wheat exports 2023/24 at 8.5 million metric tons.
- Thailand rice exports 2023 at 8.2 million metric tons.
- Egypt wheat imports 2023/24 at 12.5 million metric tons.
- U.S. distillers grains exports 2023 at 11 million metric tons.
- Paraguay soybean exports 2023 record 6.2 million metric tons.
- Global soybean trade 2023/24 forecast at 170 million metric tons.
- Japan soybean imports 2023 at 8.5 million metric tons.
- France wheat exports to Africa 2023 at 10 million metric tons.
- Vietnam rice exports 2023 at 8.1 million metric tons.
- U.S. corn export value 2023 at $18.5 billion.
- Global coarse grains trade 2023/24 at 173 million metric tons.
- South Africa white corn exports 2023 minimal at 0.5 million tons.
- Indonesia palm oil but grain imports wheat 11 million tons 2023.
- U.S. wheat export share of world trade 2023/24 at 13%.
Trade Interpretation
While China voraciously imports and Russia aggressively exports, a complex global food security puzzle—held together by remarkable resilience from Ukraine and record-setting harvests from Brazil—is being quietly solved by countless ships crossing countless seas, one bushel and one metric ton at a time.
Sources & References
- Reference 1USDAusda.govVisit source
- Reference 2NASSnass.usda.govVisit source
- Reference 3FAOfao.orgVisit source
- Reference 4IPADipad.fas.usda.govVisit source
- Reference 5FASfas.usda.govVisit source
- Reference 6STATCANstatcan.gc.caVisit source
- Reference 7REUTERSreuters.comVisit source
- Reference 8ECec.europa.euVisit source
- Reference 9ERSers.usda.govVisit source
- Reference 10STATISTAstatista.comVisit source
- Reference 11GRAINSCANADAgrainscanada.gc.caVisit source
- Reference 12MACROTRENDSmacrotrends.netVisit source
- Reference 13INDEXMUNDIindexmundi.comVisit source
- Reference 14USWHEATuswheat.orgVisit source
- Reference 15ORYXoryx.comVisit source
- Reference 16WORLDBANKworldbank.orgVisit source
- Reference 17AWBawb.com.auVisit source
- Reference 18CZAPPczapp.comVisit source
- Reference 19AMSams.usda.govVisit source
- Reference 20BARCHARTbarchart.comVisit source
- Reference 21NATUREnature.comVisit source
- Reference 22IPCCipcc.chVisit source
- Reference 23GLOBALFORESTWATCHglobalforestwatch.orgVisit source
- Reference 24WATERFOOTPRINTwaterfootprint.orgVisit source
- Reference 25IRRIirri.orgVisit source
- Reference 26IPBESipbes.netVisit source
- Reference 27ARSars.usda.govVisit source
- Reference 28SCIENCEDIRECTsciencedirect.comVisit source
- Reference 29EMBRAPAembrapa.brVisit source
- Reference 30EXTENSIONextension.iastate.eduVisit source
- Reference 31CIMMYTcimmyt.orgVisit source
- Reference 32PNASpnas.orgVisit source
- Reference 33ROTHAMSTEDrothamsted.ac.ukVisit source
- Reference 34SORGHUMCHECKOFFsorghumcheckoff.comVisit source