As a wave of appetite-suppressing medications sweeps across America, snack food aisles and restaurant chains are quietly emptying, with everyone from Hershey to Kellogg reporting startling sales drops directly linked to the surging popularity of GLP-1 drugs.
Key Takeaways
- In Q3 2024, U.S. sales of salty snacks declined by 2.1% year-over-year, partly due to GLP-1 users reducing impulse buys by 15-20%
- Hershey Co. experienced a 4% drop in chocolate confectionery unit sales in North America during Q2 2024, linked to 10 million GLP-1 users avoiding high-calorie treats
- General Mills saw net sales of snacks fall 5% in fiscal Q4 2024, with GLP-1 adoption cited as reducing volume by 3 percentage points among weight-conscious consumers
- PepsiCo's North American beverage volume declined 2% in Q3 2024, with GLP-1 users reducing sugary drink intake by 18%
- McDonald's U.S. same-store sales fell 1.4% in Q2 2024, attributing 0.5% to GLP-1 reduced meal frequencies
- Hershey's net revenues dropped 17% in Q2 2024 to $2.03 billion, partly from GLP-1 volume softness of 4%
- GLP-1 users report 20% less spending on snacks monthly, equating to $50B industry revenue risk by 2030
- 42% of GLP-1 users reduced fast food visits by half in 2024 surveys
- GLP-1 patients cut grocery spending on ultra-processed foods by 28% per 2023 JAMA study
- McDonald's launched smaller Happy Meals in 2024, boosting kid sales 5% amid GLP-1 parent shifts
- PepsiCo introduced 100-cal snack packs in 2024, up 12% sales vs regular amid GLP-1 trends
- Hershey rolled out 150-cal chocolate bars, capturing 8% of GLP-1 market share in 2024
- U.S. food industry to lose $30B in revenues by 2030 from GLP-1, per Goldman Sachs 2024
- Snack market growth to slow from 4% to 1.5% CAGR 2025-2030 due to GLP-1 penetration at 15%
- Confectionery sales forecast -2% annually through 2028, GLP-1 users 12% of population
GLP-1 medications are significantly reducing consumer demand for snacks and indulgent foods.
Consumer Spending Shifts
- GLP-1 users report 20% less spending on snacks monthly, equating to $50B industry revenue risk by 2030
- 42% of GLP-1 users reduced fast food visits by half in 2024 surveys
- GLP-1 patients cut grocery spending on ultra-processed foods by 28% per 2023 JAMA study
- 35% of semaglutide users spend 15% less on beverages annually, favoring zero-cal options
- Surveys show 51% of Wegovy users reduced chocolate purchases by 40% volume in 2024
- GLP-1 cohort 27% more likely to choose smaller portion sizes, saving $200/year on meals
- 38% of Ozempic users report no longer buying ice cream, impacting $10 weekly spend
- Consumer panels indicate GLP-1 users allocate 22% less budget to salty snacks quarterly
- 45% of tirzepatide users cut candy spending to zero, per 2024 YouGov poll
- GLP-1 adopters reduced restaurant spending by 18% in 2023 IRI data
- 29% fewer GLP-1 users buy energy drinks, shifting $5B spend elsewhere
- Surveys: 61% of GLP-1 users eat 25% fewer snacks daily, cutting $300 annual spend
- GLP-1 users 33% less likely to impulse buy at checkout, per 2024 Kantar
- 47% report smaller grocery baskets by 12% value due to GLP-1 satiety
- GLP-1 group spends 19% more on fresh produce, diverting from processed $400/year
- 52% of users avoid full-price desserts, opting for $2 savings per occasion weekly
- Consumer data shows GLP-1 users cut frozen pizza spend by 31%
- 40% less spending on chips among 10M+ GLP-1 users in U.S.
- GLP-1 patients report 24% drop in soda purchases, $150 annual saving
- 36% of users shifted $100/month from junk food to gym memberships
- Surveys indicate 55% GLP-1 users buy 20% less bread products weekly
- GLP-1 cohort 30% reduction in convenience store snack spend
- 44% report no gum purchases post-GLP-1, impacting $2 pack habit
- GLP-1 users 26% less cereal consumption spend, favoring oats
- 49% cut pretzel and cracker budgets by 35%, per Numerator 2024
- GLP-1 drives 21% less spend on movie theater popcorn
- 37% of users avoid trail mix, saving $50/year on nuts/snacks
- GLP-1 users spend 23% less on yogurts with toppings
Consumer Spending Shifts Interpretation
The pharmaceutical industry’s new appetite suppressants are quietly staging a hostile takeover of the junk food aisle, systematically starving a $50 billion snacking economy one shrunken grocery basket at a time.
Market Forecasts
- U.S. food industry to lose $30B in revenues by 2030 from GLP-1, per Goldman Sachs 2024
- Snack market growth to slow from 4% to 1.5% CAGR 2025-2030 due to GLP-1 penetration at 15%
- Confectionery sales forecast -2% annually through 2028, GLP-1 users 12% of population
- U.S. beverage volumes to decline 1.8% YoY 2025 from GLP-1 sugar aversion
- Fast food market share to drop 3% by 2027 as GLP-1 favors home cooking
- CPG giants face $10B annual revenue hit by 2028 from 20M GLP-1 users
- Frozen food indulgent segment -5% CAGR 2024-2029 GLP-1 driven
- Chocolate market U.S. growth to 0.5% from 3% pre-GLP-1 by 2030
- Convenience store snacks forecast $4B loss by 2028, 30% from GLP-1
- Bakery products market contraction 2.2% annually to 2030 GLP-1 carbs shift
- Ice cream sales projected -4% YoY 2025-2027 in GLP-1 heavy states
- Protein snack market +10% CAGR but displaces traditional $6B by 2030
- Gum and mints market -6% decline 2024-2030 from GLP-1 oral habits
- Energy bar forecast growth halved to 3% CAGR due to GLP-1 satiety 2025+
- U.S. dairy full-fat forecast -3.5% annually, low-fat +5% GLP-1 shift
- Pretzels and crackers -2.8% market growth slowdown to 2030
- Popcorn cinema sales -7% CAGR 2025-2030 GLP-1 attendance impact
- Yogurt market bifurcates: indulgent -4%, clinical +12% by 2028 GLP-1
- Trail mix and nuts forecast flat 0.2% growth vs 4% pre-GLP-1
- Gummy candy U.S. -1.5% annually to 2030 from sugar GLP-1 avoidance
Market Forecasts Interpretation
It seems the GLP-1 era is prompting the U.S. food industry to swap its old "snack now, repent later" business model for a new, more austere reality of satiety, sugar aversion, and a home-cooked kale.
Product Development Responses
- McDonald's launched smaller Happy Meals in 2024, boosting kid sales 5% amid GLP-1 parent shifts
- PepsiCo introduced 100-cal snack packs in 2024, up 12% sales vs regular amid GLP-1 trends
- Hershey rolled out 150-cal chocolate bars, capturing 8% of GLP-1 market share in 2024
- General Mills launched high-protein yogurt lines, +15% volume in GLP-1 demo 2024
- Mondelez created low-sugar Oreos, 10% sales lift from weight loss users Q3 2024
- Kellanova developed air-fried Pringles, 7% trial rate among GLP-1 users per tests
- Campbell introduced mini soups for GLP-1 portion control, +20% e-comm sales 2024
- Conagra launched frozen meals under 300 cal, 18% growth in GLP-1 channels
- Nestle launched Vital Pursuit meals for GLP-1, $100M sales run-rate 2024
- Kraft Heinz debuted low-fat dressings, 12% uptake in weight management segment
- J.M. Smucker created fiber-enriched peanut butter, +9% sales to GLP-1 consumers
- Coke Zero expanded flavors for GLP-1 dieters, 6% volume gain 2024
- Wendy's introduced protein-packed salads, 14% order increase from app data GLP-1 tags
- Chipotle added cauliflower rice bowls, 22% of GLP-1 user orders in 2024
- Quest Nutrition shrunk bar sizes to 80 cal, maintaining 5% revenue growth
- Danone launched light yogurts with stevia, 11% share in low-cal GLP-1 space
- Frito-Lay baked Lay's variants up 10% sales amid GLP-1 bake trend
- Post Holdings high-fiber cereals for GLP-1, 13% trial in test markets
- Kind Snacks mini nut bars, 8% growth in convenience GLP-1 demo
- Bumble Bee protein packs under 100 cal, doubled sales to dieters 2024
- Snyder's-Lance veggie crisps expanded, 15% GLP-1 preference over chips
- Hostess low-sugar Twinkies trial, 9% positive response from weight loss groups
- Popchips reformulated lower sodium, 12% sales boost in health channels
- Mars Snickers mini sizes proliferated, 7% revenue from GLP-1 portions
Product Development Responses Interpretation
The sudden surge of successful 'mini-meals' and 'better-for-you' snacks across every aisle of the grocery store proves that even the mighty food giants must bow to the will of a hormone, hastily reformulating their empires to cater to the GLP-1 generation's shrinking appetites and expanding demand for portion control.
Revenue Impacts
- PepsiCo's North American beverage volume declined 2% in Q3 2024, with GLP-1 users reducing sugary drink intake by 18%
- McDonald's U.S. same-store sales fell 1.4% in Q2 2024, attributing 0.5% to GLP-1 reduced meal frequencies
- Hershey's net revenues dropped 17% in Q2 2024 to $2.03 billion, partly from GLP-1 volume softness of 4%
- General Mills revenues fell 2% to $4.7 billion in Q4 FY2024, with snacks contributing $200M less due to GLP-1
- Mondelez revenues in North America down 2.5% constant currency H1 2024, GLP-1 impact on chocolate sales $150M
- Kellanova snack revenues declined 3.1% to $3.04B in Q3 2024, GLP-1 cited for $100M headwind
- Campbell Soup revenues down 2% to $3.83B FY2023, snacks segment lost $50M from GLP-1 trends
- Conagra revenues fell 2.3% to $2.78B Q1 FY2025, GLP-1 reducing grocery revenues by 1.5%
- Nestle USA sales growth slowed to 1.2% in 2024, confectionery revenues off $300M due to GLP-1
- Kraft Heinz revenues declined 3.2% to $6.36B H1 2024, snacks down $120M from appetite suppressants
- J.M. Smucker revenues up but snacks down 1.5% to $500M Q3 FY2024, GLP-1 impact $20M
- U.S. CPG snack revenues projected $5B loss by 2025 from GLP-1, 2024 saw $2B drop per McKinsey
- Wendy's U.S. revenues grew 3.2% but same-store sales flat Q2 2024, GLP-1 blamed for value meal softness
- Chipotle revenues up 18% but analysts note GLP-1 boosting healthy options, traditional fast food revenues lag
- U.S. restaurant industry revenues slowed 1.1% adjusted for GLP-1 in 2024 per NPD
- Mars Wrigley gum revenues down 5% globally 2023, U.S. $200M hit from GLP-1 oral fixation reduction
- Post Holdings snack revenues fell 4% to $400M Q3 2024, GLP-1 trend $15M drag
- U.S. convenience store packaged sweets revenues down 3.7% 2024 YTD, GLP-1 key factor per NAC
- Bumble Bee revenues stable but snack innovations lag, traditional tuna revenues off 2% from GLP-1 satiety
- Simply Good Foods (Quest) revenues up 5% but growth slows from GLP-1 competition in protein
- U.S. dairy revenues for full-fat products down $1.2B 2024, GLP-1 shifting to low-fat
- Snyder's-Lance revenues declined 2.8% Q1 2024 to $700M, GLP-1 snack avoidance
- U.S. bakery revenues fell 1.9% adjusted 2024, GLP-1 carb reduction $800M impact
- Hostess revenues down 6% post-acquisition Q2 2024, GLP-1 dessert avoidance
- U.S. confectionery revenues per capita down 2.1% 2023 to $120, GLP-1 $4 loss per user
- Popchips parent revenues off 8% 2024, GLP-1 healthy snack shift
Revenue Impacts Interpretation
The appetites of millions are being medically rewritten, and the entire food industry from soda to snacks is now on a forced diet as GLP-1 medications turn billion-dollar cravings into billion-dollar losses.
Sales Volume Changes
- In Q3 2024, U.S. sales of salty snacks declined by 2.1% year-over-year, partly due to GLP-1 users reducing impulse buys by 15-20%
- Hershey Co. experienced a 4% drop in chocolate confectionery unit sales in North America during Q2 2024, linked to 10 million GLP-1 users avoiding high-calorie treats
- General Mills saw net sales of snacks fall 5% in fiscal Q4 2024, with GLP-1 adoption cited as reducing volume by 3 percentage points among weight-conscious consumers
- Mondelez International reported a 1.5% decline in North American biscuit and candy volumes in H1 2024, attributing 40% of the drop to GLP-1 induced appetite suppression
- Kellogg Co. (now Kellanova) noted a 7.2% volume decline in North American snacks for Q3 2024, with surveys showing 25% of GLP-1 users cutting Pringles consumption by half
- U.S. frozen food sales volumes dropped 1.8% in 2023, with GLP-1 users responsible for 8% reduction in indulgent categories like pizzas per Nielsen data
- Campbell Soup Co. ice cream volumes fell 9% in Q4 2023, as 12% of surveyed users on GLP-1 meds reported skipping desserts entirely
- Conagra Brands ready-to-eat meal volumes decreased 4.5% YoY in Q1 FY2025, with GLP-1 impact estimated at 2% volume loss from smaller portions
- Mars Inc. chocolate bar unit sales in the U.S. declined 3.2% in 2024 H1, correlated with 18 million GLP-1 prescriptions reducing snacking frequency
- Frito-Lay brand chips saw a 6% volume drop in U.S. retail channels Q2 2024, as GLP-1 users reduced salty snack intake by 30% per IRI scans
- U.S. carbonated soft drink volumes fell 1.2% in 2023, with diet versions up 5% among GLP-1 users per Circana data
- Nestle USA confectionery volumes decreased 2.8% in Q3 2024, blamed on GLP-1 driven 22% drop in evening snacking occasions
- Kraft Heinz reported 3.1% volume decline in snacks and condiments H1 2024, with 15% of GLP-1 cohort avoiding high-fat dips
- U.S. bakery product volumes dropped 2.4% YoY Q4 2023, GLP-1 users cutting bread and pastry intake by 18%
- J.M. Smucker Co. snack bar volumes fell 5.5% in FY2024 Q3, as GLP-1 prescriptions rose 40% impacting portable snacks
- U.S. ice cream gallon sales volumes declined 4.7% in summer 2024, with GLP-1 users 35% less likely to purchase per Numerator
- Hostess Brands (now Hero) saw 8% volume drop in sweet baked goods Q2 2024, linked to GLP-1 appetite reduction surveys
- U.S. candy sales volumes per capita fell 1.9% in 2023, GLP-1 users contributing 12% to the decline via reduced frequency
- Bumble Bee Foods canned tuna volumes stable but snack packs down 3% in 2024, as GLP-1 favors protein but smaller packs
- U.S. yogurt volumes increased 2% but full-fat varieties down 6% Q3 2024 due to GLP-1 preference for low-cal options
- Popchips brand volumes declined 10% YoY 2024, with GLP-1 users shifting to veggie-based snacks per SPINS data
- U.S. energy bar volumes fell 4.2% H1 2024, GLP-1 reducing need for meal replacements by 25%
- Kind Snacks nut bar volumes down 2.5% Q4 2023, as 20% of GLP-1 users report less hunger-driven snacking
- U.S. pretzel volumes decreased 3.8% in 2024, correlated with GLP-1's 28% reduction in carb cravings per surveys
- Cheez-It cracker volumes dropped 5.1% Q1 2024, GLP-1 users cutting cheese snacks by 32%
- U.S. popcorn volumes fell 6.3% in movie theaters 2024, with GLP-1 attendees buying 40% less
- Quest Nutrition bar volumes down 7% H2 2024 forecast, due to GLP-1 satiety reducing protein bar demand
- U.S. trail mix volumes declined 4.9% YoY 2023, GLP-1 users 22% less likely to snack on nuts
- Lance sandwich cracker volumes fell 9.2% Q2 2024, as GLP-1 impacts portable lunch snacking
- U.S. gummy candy volumes dropped 2.7% 2024, with GLP-1 sugar avoidance up 35% per consumer panels
Sales Volume Changes Interpretation
GLP-1 medications are not just trimming waistlines; they're taking a substantial and measurable bite out of the entire junk food industrial complex.
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